Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

“Tons of money picks this week, I’m feeling extremely confident. The question is, is that a good thing?”

That was the comment I made on my picks last week, and the answer is yes, confidence is a good thing. While the age old adage that “girls love confidence” hasn’t panned out for me yet, it is pretty damn clear that the Football Gods do. 9 – 3 – 2 with the spread and 12 – 2 without it are the kinds of numbers that could potentially turn this column into a legitimate source for betting tips, and perhaps more relevantly, a pretty boring read (after all, me belittling my pathetic take on the world of football would lose its steam if I were actually good at picking winners).

But lets not get ahead of ourselves. The dictionary defines a fluke as follows;

fluke (flook) n.
1. A stroke of good luck.
2. A chance occurrence; an accident.

Which, of course, there is a very decent chance that last week was. Only time will tell. On an unrelated note, I now have memorized all of the NBA Championship teams to add on to my World Series and Super Bowl champion lists. Next time you see me, give me a year, and I’ll tell you who won each of those championships. Eerie, huh?

Well, the Trojans successfully exorcised and demons that may have been left over from 2 seasons ago in Cal this Saturday, but not in the dramatic fashion that many were expecting. I personally expected the game that we saw, but many thought we would see a nailbitter. As is often the case, “many” were wrong. I think its worth noting that the Trojans defense has overcome a number of key injuries and still had success, and also, many points that we give up are in the latter stages of games where our backups (of backups!) are in the game. I for one am not afraid of Texas, regardless of the fact that “many” say they will give us a good run.

Again, we find joy in another team’s loss yesterday, as Alabama finally lost in a tough game against LSU. This means that there are only two undefeated teams left; us and Texas. Assuming neither team loses, there will be no controversy this year ladies and gentleman; it will be the battle of two undefeateds to crown an undisputed national champion.

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 9 – 3 – 2 (.750)
Without the spread: 12 – 2 – 0 (.857)
$$Money Picks$$: 3 – 0 – 2 (1.000)
^^Zen Picks^^: 1 – 1 – 0 (.500)

Season
With the spread: 66 – 61 – 3 (.520)
Without the spread: 81 – 49 – 0 (.623)
$$Money Picks$$: 13 – 11 – 3 (.542)
^^Zen Picks^^: 9 – 4 – 0 (.692)

LAST WEEK’S RECAP OF DAVE’S BRILLIANCE AND FOOLISHNESS
(Usually Foolishness)

Atlanta 17 5 – 2 (-2.5) @ Miami 10 3 – 4 (+2.5)
“Atlanta is a much better team than Miami, simple as that. Even in Miami, the Dolphins should be getting more than 2.5 points. Maybe I’m wrong, but I think Atlanta winning by at least a field goal is most certainly in the cards.” – 1 down, 8 to come.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN – $Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN – Atlanta

Carolina 34 5 – 2 (+1.0) @ Tampa Bay 14 5 – 2 (-1.0)
“Out of nowhere, the Tampa Bay Bucs have lost 2 of 3 (both to lousy teams) and the Panthers have won 4 straight. Still, Green Bay, Arizona, Detroit, and Minnesota aren’t exactly wins to write home about. But a win is a win. As much as I want to pick the Bucs, I don’t think QB Chris Sims has what it takes to exploit Carolina’s weakness (its passing defense), so Carolina should win this in a close one.” – Was wrong about it being close, but wasn’t wrong with my pick.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN – ^*Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN – *Carolina

Cincinnati 21 6 – 2 (-3.5) @ Baltimore 9 2 – 5 (+3.5)
“Cincinnati has the better offense and defense. Probably special teams, too, but I didn’t look up the stats on that. Cinci shouldnt have too big of an obstacle in tackling the spread this week.” – Nothing but smooth sailing this week
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN – Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN – Cincinnati

Detroit 14 3 – 4 (-1.5) @ Minnesota 27 2 – 5 (+1.5)
Actually, there were a few waves, and this one was the biggest. Detroit (especially Harrington) really is awful.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS – Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS – Detroit

Houston 14 1 – 6 (+11.0) @ Jacksonville 21 4 – 3 (-11.0)
“Jacksonville doesn’t blow teams out, and Houston has seemingly found some sort of a sync after starting the season off hideously. That being said, I’m going to go Zen here.” Bad idea, shoulda taken my research over a Zen philosophy (this time, anyways)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS – ^Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN – Jacksonville

San Diego 31 4 – 4 (-5.0) @ N.Y. Jets 26 2 – 5 (+5.0)
The Jets made a valient effort to come back, but all they ended up doing was foiling the spread.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: TIE – $San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN – San Diego

Tennessee 14 2 – 6 (+3.0) @ Cleveland 20 2 – 5 (-3.0)
“It is awfully difficult to pick Cleveland, who has lost three straight including last week to the league’s worst team, but that is partially why I am picking them. They owe it to their home crowd to go out and have a big game, and I think they’ll do just that against an equally weak Tennessee.” – Was I on or what?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN – Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN – Cleveland

Chicago 20 4 – 3 (-3.0) @ New Orleans 17 2 – 6 (+3.0)
Another win for Chicago, but an unspectacular one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: TIE – $Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN – Chicago

N.Y. Giants 24 5 – 2 (-10.0) @ San Francisco 6 2 – 5 (+10.0)
San Fran held the Giants to a much lower score than I expected, but they still couldn’t win the game.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN – $N.Y. Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN – N.Y. Giants

Seattle 33 5 – 2 (-4.5) @ Arizona 19 2 – 5 (+4.5)
This game proved to be as easy as it looked to pick, too.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN – Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN – Seattle

Pittsburgh 20 5 – 2 (-6.5) @ Green Bay 10 1 – 6 (+6.5)
My one bad pick of the week. Thought Green Bay had some magic left in the tank. Clearly, I was wrong.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS – *Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS – *Green Bay

Philadelphia 10 4 – 3 (-1.0) @ Washington 17 4 – 3 (+1.0)
As predicted, Washington took care of business against the emotionally distraught Eagles.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN – $*Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN – *Washington

DAMN, I’M GOOD

Oakland 23 3 – 4 (+4.5) @ Kansas City 27 4 – 3 (-4.5)
I’d really love to pick Oakland, but these two teams match up awfully well, and considering that the Cheifs have won in our last 5 meetings and are at home, I can’t pick against them. I do think however it will be a field goal that decides it, and will take the Raiders with the points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN – *Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN – Kansas City
– Just a solid pick, but a very tough loss for my Raiders.

Indianapolis 40 7 – 0 (-3.0) @ New England 21 4 – 3 (+3.0)
New England always beats Indianapolis, they have their number. You know what else they had in past years? A better team. Thats not the case anymore – Indi is better on BOTH sides of the ball (yes, remarkably, the COLTS have a better defense than the Patriots. Must be awfully cold in Hell). It is long over due that they took some revenge on the Pats, and I think they will this week (Sorry Danielle).
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN – $Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN – Indianapolis
– Picking the Colts over the Patriots is a tough pick regardless of the rosters, so I’m proud of this one.

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
$ – Indicates Money Pick
^ – Indicates Zen Pick

Arizona 2 – 6 (+4.0) @ Detroit 3 – 5 (-4.0)
There is no question that Detroit sucks this year, but there is also no denying that Arizona sucks even more. In what is sure to be an absolutely fantastic game of football (…) I’ll reluctantly take the Lions.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Detroit

Baltimore 2 – 6 (+7.0) @ Jacksonville 5 – 3 (-7.0)
As is often the case with Jacksonville, I see them most certainly winning the game, but not winning it by too much. I’ll bet on the Ravens to keep it within reason.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Jacksonville

Houston 1 – 7 (+17.5) @ Indianapolis 8 – 0 (-17.5)
Nope, that isn’t a typo. I’ve double checked. SEVENTEEN AND A HALF POINTS. I guess this is what happens when you pair the league’s best and worst. Houston lost by 18 when these two teams met in Houston, and they were still hungry for their first win. With that out of the way, and in Indianapolis, I don’t see how they could possibly make this a game. So, yes, I’m giving up that many points (despite my Zen of Gambling mentor telling me not to do so) and taking the Colts.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

Kansas City 5 – 3 (+2.0) @ Buffalo 3 – 5 (-2.0)
Sure, Buffalo plays well at home – against bad teams. They have the worst rushing defense in the league, as is exposed week in and week out, and the Chiefs have Larry Johnson. I’ll give Buffalo the 2 points back, and take Kansas City in an easy one, thank you.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *$Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Kansas City

Minnesota 3 – 5 (+9.5) @ N.Y. Giants 6 – 2 (-9.5)
The Giants are on a roll, and their opposition has scored an average of a field goal each over their last two games. Unfortunately for the Vikings, I don’t expect this to be the team to stop their flow.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: NY Giants

New England 4 – 4 (-3.0) @ Miami 3 – 5 (+3.0)
Despite downright awful play, the Patriots still find themselves winning their awful division. Fact of the matter is, Bilichick and Brady are proven winners, regardless of the circumstances. They won’t let the opportunity to get back over the .500 mark slip away here, and they will take down the Dolphins in Miami.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

San Francisco 2 – 6 (+12.5) @ Chicago 5 – 3 (-12.5)
Chicago all of a sudden boasts a 4 game winning streak, and with one of the worst teams in the league on the menu this week, they should make it 5. However, I don’t think they are going to do so in monster fashion. SF has been playing relatively decent football, and I think they can keep it around 10 points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago

Denver 6 – 2 (-2.0) @ Oakland 3 – 5 (+2.0)
As usual, the Raider game is tearing me up. My gut pick was the Raiders even though I know they are the weaker team. Then I decided that was stupid, checked the numbers, and picked Denver. But then I really analyzed the numbers and see a huge hole in Denver’s passing defense, exactly where the Raiders can exploit them, and took the Raiders. Then I figured I was probably just spinning the numbers for my team, and changed to the Broncos. THEN I considered some Zen factors like home field, rivalry, etc. and am completely torn, right down the middle, 50/50. And I have to pick between the team I love the most and the team I hate the most. Flip a coin.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Oakland

N.Y. Jets 2 – 6 (+9.0) @ Carolina 6 – 2 (-9.0)
Carolina carries a 5 game winning streak into this game, and has become a legitimite NFC powerhouse. They are the real deal, and unfortunately for the Jets, I think they are going to be playing the role of punching bag this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina

Green Bay 1 – 7 (+9.0) @ Atlanta 6 – 2 (-9.0)
I love Atlanta, and am certainly not going to make the mistake of picking against them at home. Green Bay, as much as I am having trouble accepting it, really are as bad as their records. That being said, they are still playing their hardest, and I do think they can cover with 9 points to work with.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

St. Louis 4 – 4 (+6.5) @ Seattle 6 – 2 (-6.5)
This game is always a good one, and so I’m not super sure on the 6.5 points. Still, you know my Seattle at home rule (they are 3 – 1 against the spread at home this year, so I’m not completely on my own here), so I’ll take em.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle

Washington 5 – 3 (+1.0) @ Tampa Bay 5 – 3 (-1.0)
I wonder what Washington has to do to gain some respect from the book keepers? Underdogs against the reeling Buccaneers? I’m rooting for the Bucs as much as anyone in this game, but that isn’t going to disuade me. Just like they caught the Eagles at the right time, I think the Bucs, too, are ripe for the picking.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Washington

Cleveland 3 – 5 (+8.0) @ Pittsburgh 6 – 2 (-8.0)
Pittsburgh is quietly doing what it does so well; winning football games. Everyone is so caught up in the Colts that no one seems to notice that despite injuries, the Steelers keep winning. Are they the team to beat anymore? Maybe not. But after this week, they are going to be 7 – 2.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

Dallas 5 – 3 (+2.0) @ Philadelphia 4 – 4 (-2.0)
Philadelphia has been the best team in the NFC for quite some time, and now they find themselves dead last in their surprisingly good division. The whole TO thing has diverted everyone’s attention away from the simple fact that even without him, they are still a solid team. Reid and McNabb will find a way, in front of their home crowd, to right the ship this week. I’m sure of it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

Half of the games have a TD or more spread! Talk about lopsided…

KINGS HOCKEY

For the second time this season, the Kings played the Red Wings tough, but still came up with the loss in overtime. Other then the Red Wings though, the Kings seem virtually unstoppable. Perhaps the most interesting stat I’ve seen in a while is that when the Kings give up the first goal of the game (which they have done 11 times) they have won an unprecidented 8 times! Usually, the team that gives up the first goal loses a bit over 50% of the time. For the Kings to have come back from an early one goal deficit 8 times speaks volumes not only of their resiliancy, but also of what an exciting league the new NHL is; no lead is safe.

Enjoy your Sunday and the rest of your week! Love the Dime? Hate it? Please send feedback! For past issues of the DIME, visit my website: Dave’s Dime

MY TEAMS RECORDS
OAKLAND RAIDERS: 3 – 5 – 0
USC TROJANS: 10 – 0 – 0
LOS ANGELES KINGS: 11 – 5 – 1

TROJAN OUTSCORING O-METER
Season:
TROJANS 484
OPPONENTS 195

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