2005 NFL Newsletter: Dave’s Dime Week 17

By , December 29, 2005

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

So here we are; the last weekend of the regular season, the last day of 2005, and the last time we will get to see Reggie Bush and Matt Leinart in Trojan jerseys. So lets get right to it; there is champagne to be drinking!

Oh, and just letting you know now; I’m not funny this week. Sorry. Too football oriented; hopefully you all still enjoy it anyways!

Today’s lucky numbers are: 1 11 23 24 31.

I played these with my last $1.50 at Morongo last night on Keno (yes, Keno) and they hit… $350 on a 50 cent bet!

USC TROJANS VS. TEXAS LONGHORNS

Current Spread: USC (-8.0) Texas (+8.0)
Poll Results: USC 5 – Texas 0, both w/ and w/o the spread

I will try not to take it personally that only FIVE people responded to the poll, and move on gracefully. All month I’ve been thinking of all the ways I’m going to break down the numbers on this game, and try to figure out who is going to win, and have some sort of really good reason as to why I feel that way. But thats the thing about college football that makes this game so necessary to be played out; you just can’t get a fair comparison of these teams based on the numbers, because both teams faced 12 completely different teams, 12 completely different offenses and defenses. Sure, I can give you the numbers:

Total Yards Per Game:
USC 587.8 (1st in NCAA)
Texas 516.9 (4th in NCAA)

Passing Yards Per Game:
USC 323.5 (6th in NCAA)
Texas 243.1 (51st in NCAA)

Rushing Yards Per Game:
USC 264.3 (4th in NCAA)
Texas 273.8 (3rd in NCAA)

Points Per Game:
USC 50.0 (2nd in NCAA)
Texas 50.8 (1st in NCAA)

We can also talk about stength of schedule; the Trojans on paper had a much tougher schedule, but again considering that the teams played no like opponents, its hard to say what USC would have done against Ohio State or Texas Tech, or what Texas would have done against Notre Dame, Oregon, Fresno State, or UCLA. Granted, USC and Texas would have likely won in all of these matchups; but we could have at least been able to compare margin and strength of victory, etc. In any case, there is no reason for Texas fans to believe their defense can’t stop SC, and there is no reason for SC fans to believe that they can’t stomp right over the defense and stop Texas en route to victory.

So, who do I think is going to win? The Trojans. Convincingly. I’ve seen every game they’ve played this year; I’ve seen what their offense is capible of. The only way they can be stopped is if they are shaken up by the crowd; but thats not going to be the case at this Rose Bowl. Pete Carroll has had a month to prepare for this game. It will be Reggie Bush and Matt Leinart’s final game. As seen above, Texas is NOT known for its passing, and the Trojans do have a very sound rushing defense. If they can take the early lead and force Texas to pass, the game could get out of hand in a hurry. This may be a close game. It may be a Texas victory. But I don’t think either will be the case; I think that Carroll will find an answer to Vince Young, and even Texas’s strong defense won’t be able to cover all of the dimensions of the Trojan’s offense.

Score Prediction: Trojans 42, Longhorns 17

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: USC
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: USC

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 11 – 4 – 1 (.733)
Without the spread: 12 – 4 – 0 (.750)
$$Money Picks$$: 1 – 0 – 1 (1.000)
^^Zen Picks^^: 3 – 2 – 1 (.600)

Season
With the spread: 131 – 102 – 7 (.562)
Without the spread: 157 – 83 – 0 (.654)
$$Money Picks$$: 31 – 21 – 5 (.596)
^^Zen Picks^^: 26 – 13 – 1 (.666)

LAST WEEK’S RECAP OF DAVE’S BRILLIANCE AND FOOLISHNESS
(Usually Brilliance?!?)

Atlanta 24 8 – 6 (+3.0) @ Tampa Bay 27 9 – 5 (-3.0)
I’ll take a tie over a loss, I suppose.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: TIE – ^$Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN – Tampa Bay

Buffalo 27 4 – 10 (+13.0) @ Cincinnati 37 11 – 3 (-13.0)
NO ONE saw this one coming… and if they did, I bow to them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS – Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS – Cincinnati

Dallas 24 8 – 6 (+5.5) @ Carolina 20 10 – 4 (-5.5)
Not quite what I was expecting, but it was a win where it counts.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN – *Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS – Carolina

Detroit 13 4 – 10 (+2.5) @ New Orleans 12 3 – 11 (-2.5)
“I’m really not sure at all in this one, but I just get the feeling that Detroit is going to win. I mean, they have to; it is really embarassing how bad they are, the least they could do is beat New Orleans.” – And they did; BARELY.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN – *Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN – *Detroit

Jacksonville 38 10 – 4 (-6.0) @ Houston 20 2 – 12 (+6.0)
Yeah, this wasn’t rocket science.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN – Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN – Jacksonville

Pittsburgh 41 9 – 5 (-6.5) @ Cleveland 0 5 – 9 (+6.5)
“Pittsburgh is just a flat out better team than Cleveland.” – Told ya so.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN – Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN – Pittsburgh

San Francisco 24 2 – 12 (+10.0) @ St. Louis 20 5 – 9 (-10.0)
St. Louis is an embarassment to themselves and football in general.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS – St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS – St. Louis

Tennessee 10 4 – 10 (+5.5) @ Miami 24 7 – 7 (-5.5)
“Miami is a real surprise this season, making a 2 -12 calibur team into a 7 – 7 team. In their last home game of the season, look for them to win their 5th (!!!) straight game against the weak Titans.” Yep… too easy.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN – Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN – Miami

Philadelphia 21 6 – 8 (+1.0) @ Arizona 27 4 – 10 (-1.0)
“After losing to the Houston Texans, Arizona is the laughing stock of the league right now. If that doesn’t get you motivated to try to redeem yourself this week, then not too much will.” – Am I too good, or what?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN – ^Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN – Arizona

Indianapolis 13 13 – 1 (+7.5) @ Seattle 28 12 – 2 (-7.5)
“Against Indi’s practice squad, this one is going to be UGLY.” – Not as ugly as I thought, but an easy win all the same.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN – $Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN – Seattle

Oakland 3 4 – 10 (+12.5) @ Denver 22 11 – 3 (-12.5)
Lets just move on, please.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS – ^*Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN – Denver

Chicago 24 10 – 4 (-3.5) @ Green Bay 17 3 – 11 (+3.5)
“Regardless of how motivated they are, I don’t see Chicago dropping this one.” And they didn’t.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN – Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN – Chicago

Minnesota 23 8 – 6 (-1.0) @ Baltimore 30 5 – 9 (+1.0)
Not only did they lose me this pick, they lost me $20, too!
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS – ^Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS – Minnesota

New England 31 9 – 5 (-5.0) @ N.Y. Jets 21 3 – 11 (+5.0)
“Beginning of the season, I’da guessed this game would play a key part in deciding the division’s winner. Fast forward to now, and the superior team is pretty clear cut.” – No surprises here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN – New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN – New England

DAMN I’M GOOD

San Diego 7 9 – 5 (+1.0) @ Kansas City 20 8 – 6 (-1.0)
Here is an interesting game. I think the Chargers are a great team, better than the Chiefs, and they just beat the best team in the league last week. But that’s the thing; I don’t know if they have anything left. Both teams are going to want this win very badly, but in Kansas City, I think San Diego is ripe for a let down.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN – ^Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN – Kansas City
– This was a bold pick, I like it.

N.Y. Giants 20 10 – 4 (+3.0) @ Washington 35 8 – 6 (-3.0)
This is a toughy, and has the makings to be a damn good game. Both teams are riding 3 game winning streaks. While New York has the better team, Washington has 91,000 fans on their side; and they need this game a bit more than the Giants do. I say they take it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN – ^Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN – Washington
– Same here, just another good strong pick.

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
$ – Indicates Money Pick
^ – Indicates Zen Pick

Saturday

Denver 12 – 3 (+7.0) @ San Diego 9 – 6 (-7.0)
Denver can rest all of its players, and San Diego has nothing left to play for but pride in their home stadium. They should do their fans a favor and slaughter the resting Broncos. Its a shame for San Diego, too; they are going to be one of the best teams of all time NOT to make the playoffs.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

N.Y. Giants 10 – 5 (-7.5) @ Oakland 4 – 11 (+7.5)
If theres one bright spot to the season, its that its finally over. Next year should be better for the Raiders; with Collins gone, and Curry and Moss back healthy. As for this season? Look for much of the same to continue with a huge loss to the Giants this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $N.Y. Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: N.Y. Giants

Sunday

Arizona 5 – 10 (+7.5) @ Indianapolis 13 – 2 (-7.5)
I really have no idea what to expect in this game; it all comes down to whether or not Indianapolis tries. However, seeing as they only lost to Seattle by 15 with their backups, I figure I’ll take my chances with them this week, and hope Peyton and the gang come out for a drive or two.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

Baltimore 6 – 9 (-1.0) @ Cleveland 5 – 10 (+1.0)
Baltimore remembered how to play football a little too late this year. Still, they are certainly good enough to beat the Browns in their final game of the season.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

Buffalo 5 – 10 (+1.5) @ N.Y. Jets 3 – 12 (-1.5)
Buffalo is a better team, and I wonder how much the Jets really want to win with such a deep draft coming up this offseason.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Buffalo

Carolina 10 – 5 (-4.0) @ Atlanta 8 – 7 (+4.0)
Carolina is the better team, and they should have no problem taking care of the disappointing Falcons this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina

Cincinnati 11 – 4 (+7.0) @ Kansas City 9 – 6 (-7.0)
This should be a good game, again depending on how hard Cincinatti is actually trying. I think that the Chiefs will win it regardless, but not by a touchdown.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Kansas City

Detroit 5 – 10 (+15.0) @ Pittsburgh 10 – 5 (-15.0)
With a win here, Pittsburgh makes the playoffs. Detroit will want so badly to play the spoiler, but they just aren’t in Pittsburgh’s league. The Steelers will likely win in a blowout, but I still like the Lions to keep the game within 2 TDs.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *^Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

Miami 8 – 7 (+4.5) @ New England 10 – 5 (-4.5)
Miami has had a fantastic run, winning 5 straight to prevent a losing season. Dolphins fans couldn’t ask for more. Well, I suppose they COULD ask for an upset in New England, but thats just not reasonable.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

New Orleans 3 – 12 (+13.0) @ Tampa Bay 10 – 5 (-13.0)
As much as the Saints will want to play spoiler here, they are far out talented by the Buccaneers, and at home, the Bucs should have no problem beating the Saints. Still, the Saints somehow always manage to make a game out of it, so I’ll take them with the 13 points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay

Seattle 13 – 2 (-2.0) @ Green Bay 3 – 12 (+2.0)
In what may be Favre’s last game, look for the Packers to win it in front of the Lambaeu faithful, only because the Seahawks won’t give a damn. They will, however, get Alexander his TD so he can break the all time single season record.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Green Bay

Houston 2 – 13 (+1.0) @ San Francisco 3 – 12 (-1.0)
Houston will not win this game; they’d be damn fools if they did. They’ll find some creative way to lose to lock up Reggie Bush next year, or at least his trade value, which they could probably put together an 8 – 8 team with. Funny that San Fransisco’s upset against the Rams last week coupled with a win here moves them up about 6 picks in the draft order. I suppose they won’t want to win, either. Should be… fun.elves.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $San Fransisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Fransisco

Tennessee 4 – 11 (+5.0) @ Jacksonville 11 – 4 (-5.0)
This week is so hard to pick, as usually the obvious Jacksonville pick becomes confusing with the likelihood that they will be resting their players. Still, I have trouble picking the Titans against anyone.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Jacksonville

Chicago 11 – 4 (+3.5) @ Minnesota 8 – 7 (-3.5)
Minnesota choked against the Ravens last week, and the Bears play a similar style of football, except they play it better. Look for the Bears to win this one easily – assuming, of course, that they play their starters.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Chicago

Washington 9 – 6 (-7.0) @ Philadelphia 6 – 9 (+7.0)
Coming off an impressive win against the Giants, and riding a 4 game winning streak, the Redskins got hot at just the right time; and they should head into the playoffs with a five game winning streak.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Washington

St. Louis 5 – 10 (+12.5) @ Dallas 9 – 6 (-12.5)
12.5 is alotta points, but then, St. Louis is really, really bad. So I’ll take the Cowboys at home to rout them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

I have a feeling this week isn’t gonna go too well… but hopefully I’m just imagining things.
KINGS HOCKEY

The good times keep on rolling for the Kings, who have won 7 of their last 10, and have regained first place in the Western division. The true test, however, is now upon them. Western rival Dallas Stars, who are only one point behind the Kings but have played 4 less games, play the Kings tonight and than again on the 2nd of January. If the two teams split the series, not too much changes. But if one team can win both games, they could do some serious damage to their division rival. Should be two very intense games, and I’m keeping my fingers crossed for a few Kings victories.

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For past issues of the DIME, visit my website: Dave’s Dime
Have a great weekend everyone!

MY TEAMS RECORDS
OAKLAND RAIDERS: 4 – 11 – 0
*USC TROJANS: 12 – 0 – 0*
LOS ANGELES KINGS: 24 – 14 – 2

TROJAN OUTSCORING O-METER
Season:
TROJANS 600
OPPONENTS 256

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DavesDime.com by Dave Consolazio