2005 NFL Newsletter: Dave’s Dime Week 4

By , September 29, 2005

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

NONE OF THE PICKS WERE ALTERED AFTER THE GAMES BEGAN. I HAD NO INTERNET ACCESS WHERE I AM STAYING AND JUST GOT ONLINE RIGHT NOW. I SENT THIS OUT AS SOON AS I COULD

THE INTRO

WOW. I report to you live from Arizona with my voice still gone and my adrenaline still pumping. Anyone who saw the game needs no explination. Anyone who didn’t see it, well, I’m very sorry for you. WHAT A GAME! Sure we didn’t cover the spread, but hell, this was the best football game I’ve ever been to.

Alas, this is a pro football column, so I’ll get on with it. I’ve steadily improved each week (which is bound to happen, considering how poorly I started off). 8 – 6 with the spread and 10 – 4 without it, I’m content with that. The pathetic thing is, I guarenteed 4 victories, and only one of them actually happened. The loss that mattered most of course was the Indianapolis game, which I told you to bet your house on. Sorry about that… hopefully you are able to crash with a friend or something…

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 8 – 6 – 0 (.571)
Without the spread: 10 – 4 – 0 (.714)
$$Money Picks$$: 1 – 3 – 0 (.250)

Season
With the spread: 21 – 24 – 1 (.467)
Without the spread: 25 – 21 – 0 (.543)
$$Money Picks$$: 2 – 5 – 1 (.286)

LAST WEEK’S RECAP OF DAVE’S BRILLIANCE AND FOOLISHNESS
(Usually Foolishness)

Atlanta 24 (+2.5) @ Buffalo 16 (-2.5)
When Vick plays well, the Falcons win. It isn’t rocket science.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN – *Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN – *Atlanta

Carolina 24 (-3.5) @ Miami 27 (+3.5)
Is Carolina just a choke artist team, or are the Dolphins actually legitimate? Only time will tell I suppose, but a great outing for Miami either way.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS – $Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS – Carolina

Cincinnati 24 (-3.0) @ Chicago 7 (+3.0)
This team looks GREAT right now. And with the Texans coming up, the good times should keep rolling.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN – Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN – Cincinnati

Cleveland 6 (+13.5) @ Indianapolis 13 (-13.5)
The Colts are 3 – 0, the 2nd worst passing defense in the league held Peyton Manning to 0 TDs, and Kerry Collins is having a better season than Manning is. Indeed, pigs do fly. Sorry again about your house…
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS – $Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN – Indianapolis

Jacksonville 26 (+2.5) @ N.Y. Jets 20 (-2.5)
Jacksonville is looking good, but the real story here is the Jets losing both Chad Pennington and Jay Fiedler to injury. No one can predict that. This is very bad news for the Jets, who are going to need a miracle to stay afloat this season.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS – New York Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS – New York Jets

New Orleans 16 (+3.5) @ Minnesota 33 (-3.5)
“Daunte Culpepper: 0 TD, 8 INT. Randy Moss: 10 catches, 257 yards, 2 TDs. Starting to miss him? Just maybe. But I’m not selling on Daunte or the Vikings just yet. Look for the offense to finally click (even without Burleson) and the Vikes to put together enough for the win here.” – Well said, me.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN – Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN – Minnesota

Tampa Bay 17 (-3.0) @ Green Bay 16 (+3.0)
I was afraid this might happen, but I wasn’t going to take GB to cover only 3 points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS – Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN – Tampa Bay

Tennessee 27 (+6.5) @ St. Louis 31 (-6.5)
Well, at least they covered, but I guess I was asking a bit too much for the victory in St. Louis.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN – *Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS – *Tennessee

Dallas 34 (-6.5) @ San Francisco 31 (+6.5)
Dallas is looking baaaad. It should not be such a difficult task to beat San Fransisco. Hand it to San Fran though, they are 2 – 1 w/ the spread this year.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS – Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN – Dallas

New England 23 (+3.0) @ Pittsburgh 20 (-3.0)
Guess I was the only one who saw this coming? Losing Harrison for the season though just may be the straw that broke the camel’s back (even if it is a super bowl winning dynasty camel)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN – *New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN – *New England

N.Y. Giants 23 (+6.0) @ San Diego 45 (-6.0)
Tomlinson is the best player in the league? Get him the ball and you win?? Geez, what a concept!
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN – San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN – San Diego

Kansas City 10 (+3.0) @ Denver 30 (-3.0)
This was NOT the Broncos team that lost to the Dolphins week one, and it was DEFINITELY not the Kansas City team that beat the Raiders and the Jets. But I’ll tell you what it was – another money pick loss for Dave
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS – $*Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS – *Kansas City

DAMN, I’M GOOD

Oakland 20 (+8.5) @ Philadelphia 23 (-8.5)
I know in my head that Oakland is going to lose. Philadelphia’s defense is damn good, and they are a much sounder team, and they are at home. My heart tells me the Raiders are gonna pull the huge upset, but, my heart is a bit biased. Philadelphia will win the game. But by 9? I don’t know, I mean its possible, but I believe the Raiders are due for a big game, and they can at least keep it within 6 or so.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN – *Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN – Philadelphia
– I’m always proud of myself when I pick one team with the spread and the other straight up and win. I’m not proud, however, at how much my team sucks.

Arizona 12 (+6.0) @ Seattle 37 (-6.0)
Seattle is at home? *Check the win. Against Arizona? *Check the money pick. Any questions? Hopefully not. But I’ll give you two sentences to fill space: Seattle always wins at home. Arizona sucks in general. So there you go.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN – $Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN – Seattle
– My only successful money pick, and it made me look really smart.

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
$ – Indicates Money Pick

San Diego (+5.0) @ New England (-5.0)
I really do think that San Diego has a shot here. New England is battered up, San Diegos got LT. But, this is in New England. And I still stand by the fact that regardless of the circumstances, New England just wins football games. So I’ll take the home team in this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

Denver (+4.0) @ Jacksonville (-4.0)
Heres a tough game, simply because when Denver is on, they look phenomenal, but when they are off… and its that inconsistanty that prompts me to go with the consistantly solid Jacksonville Jags.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Jacksonville

Houston (+10.0) @ Cincinnati (-10.0)
My only sure pick of the week. Not only is Cincinnati going to win, but they are going to completely destroy the Texans. Cincinnati in a complete blowout.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $ Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati

Indianapolis (-6.5) @ Tennessee (+6.5)
If Peyton can’t wake up at home against the Browns, how can he be expected to do so on the road against Tennessee? Well, whether he wakes up or not, it would appear that Indi’s defense is good enough to win games this year. So, Indi it is.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

Philidelphia (+2.5) @ Kansas City (-2.5)
Alright, at Kansas City. And maybe last weeks poor performance against the Broncos was a fluke. I don’t know, but Philidelphia is still the better team in my opinion, and I’ll gladly take the 2 points while we’re at it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Philidelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Philidelphia

Detroit (+6.5) @ Tampa Bay (-6.5)
I’m not sure that Tampa Bay is going to win by a touchdown, but they most certainly are going to win. And it is at home, and Detroit is bound to let Tampa Bay’s defense score a TD or two. So, I guess I’ll take my chances.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay

St. Louis (+3.0) @ New York Giants (-3.0)
Yuck. Two teams that just never seem to have it together. I’m going to pick the Giants for the simple fact that it is at home, and St. Louis is completely useless on the road.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New York Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Giants

Buffalo @ New Orleans (Pick ‘Em)
Well, theres a reason this game has no spread – its impossible to put much faith in either team. I am going to go with my gut here and take New Orleans, even though my brain tells me that the right pick is Buffalo.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

Seattle (+2.0) @ Washington (-2.0)
Seattle is simply a better team than Washington, as far as I’m concerned. While they always seem to find a way to lose on the road, I’m going to assume that won’t be the case today, and take Seattle.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Seattle

New York Jets (+7.5) @ Baltimore (-7.5)
As previously mentioned, the Jets had an absolutely backbreaking week last week, losing their #1 and #2 QBs. I’ve gotta therefore assume that in Baltimore, the Ravens should be able to handle these battered Jets – but I think that the Jets defense and the Ravens lack of offense should make it a close one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *New York Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

Minnesota (+5.5) @ Atlanta (-5.5)
When Culpepper is on, the Vikings win. When Vick is on, the Falcons win. What if both of them are on? Tie? Well, for some reason, I get the feeling that Culpepper is back, and hes going to shock everyone (except for me) by going into Atlanta and pulling off the upset.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Minnesota

Dallas (+3.0) @ Oakland (-3.0)
Oakland is actually going to win a football game! They are absolutely itching for a win, in Oakland, against a team that isnt a division rival or super bowl winner or runner up. Oakland is going to win this game, and do so convincingly. And I’m going to be on a plane home when they do.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $ Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Oakland

San Fransisco (+3.0) @ Arizona (-3.0)
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahhaha.
This game is so bad that it was sent to Mexico. I’m saying that Arizona is going to win this game that has playoff implications written all over it .
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona

Green Bay (+8.0) @ Carolina (-8.0)
Carolina has not shown me nearly enough to give up 8 points, but GB hasn’t shown me nearly enough to believe they can win. So…. GB w/ the spread, Carolina w/o it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina

Only 5 upsets this week… hard to believe in the NFL. Well, we shall see.

Enjoy your Sunday and the rest of your week! Please send feedback! For past issues of the DIME, visit my website: Dave’s Dime

MY TEAMS RECORDS
OAKLAND RAIDERS: 0 – 3 – 0
USC TROJANS: 4 – 0 – 0
LOS ANGELES KINGS: 0 – 0 – 0

TROJAN OUTSCORING O-METER
Season:
TROJANS 216
OPPONENTS 75

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