Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Shoot, last Sunday was one of the poorest displays of picking football that the world has ever seen, and I had all sorts of clever ways to belittle myself lined up. Yet in the aftermath of today’s Trojans game, I could have gone 0 for 14 last week and still had a huge grin on my face. Still, lets not let me completely off the hook. My “money picks” (picks you are supposed to feel confident laying money down on) are now at a laughable 3 of 10 correct. Last week was so poor, in fact, that I was prompted to buy a book about sports gambling called the “Zen of Gambling”. It gives me all sorts of tricks to the trade. It also gives me the best places to crunch the numbers on the games, which I actually did this week. I’m aware that letting you in on this is most certainly setting myself up for public humiliation, but that’s why I’m here! If I were picking for pride, I’da stopped at week one. The ZoG says that everyone has cold streaks, and that as long as you are over 50% at the end of the year, you make money in the end. Does it count as a cold STREAK if your entire career is cold? Hmmm… well, lets see how my newly enlightened self does this week.

Well, I just witnessed the greatest college football game of my young life. I’ll be honest with you, I had trouble believing that the ASU game could ever be surpassed, but it only took us two weeks. For those of you that saw it, there’s no need to recap, and for those of you who didn’t, words will do it no justice. So I will stick

Last week’s 0 for 3 betting on the advice of an undefeated guy was a pretty good story. This week may top it. I dropped $55 on this one today, all thanks to the ZEN OF GAMBLING. Here are all the reasons the Trojan’s were supposed to come out convincingly victorious:

*Notre Dame is coming off a blowout win. Trojans were coming off a lackluster win against a lousy team. ZoG states that you should always take the team that’s coming off of the bad game, as they have more to prove and the spread will be in your favor.
*The Trojans were not unanimously voted as the #1 team in the nation this week, with Texas grabbing 2 #1 votes. This should make the Trojans angry and give them more to prove, making them come out even hungrier, according to ZoG.
*Notre Dame was too overconfident all week. Overconfidence almost always ends in disaster.
*The public was betting on the Irish. What the public bets on is what you should bet against, as the public always loses in the long run (this is why casinos make money)
*Notre Dame was coming off a week off, way too much time without football too match the intensity for the rivalry of the Trojans so they should have been blown away early.

Sorry, Wayne Allen Root (author). There’s an even stronger Zen then yours, and that’s the
David Consolazio Sure To Lose In An Absolute Thriller Zen
Last 3 Trojan games I’ve put money on:
2004 VS. Cal
2005 @ ASU
2005 @ ND
All brilliant games. All Trojan victories. All Trojan failure to cover the spread. All exciting to the max. All forcing Dave to order off the McDonald’s Dollar Menu during the week following.

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 6 – 8 – 0 (.429)
Without the spread: 6 – 8 – 0 (.429)
$$Money Picks$$: 0 – 1 – 0 (.000)

Season
With the spread: 34 – 39 – 1 (.466)
Without the spread: 41 – 33 – 0 (.554)
$$Money Picks$$: 3 – 7 – 1 (.300)

LAST WEEK’S RECAP OF DAVE’S BRILLIANCE AND FOOLISHNESS
(Usually Foolishness)

Baltimore 17 1 – 2 (+1.5) @ Detroit 35 1 – 2 (-1.5)
“This game makes me very uncomfortable, as I don’t feel that either team has been playing to its potential yet this season.” – Well, perhaps the Lions just got started.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS – *Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS – *Baltimore

Chicago 10 1 – 2 (+3.0) @ Cleveland 20 1 – 2 (-3.0)
“Pretty much everything I’ve read says that Cleveland is the pick here, but I disagree.” – Smart, Dave. Its that brilliance that got you where you are today.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS – *Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS – *Chicago

Miami 14 2 – 1 (+2.5) @ Buffalo 20 1 – 3 (-2.5)
I’m not going to dog myself on this one, I still think I made the right pick! Damn Dolphins.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS – *Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS – *Miami

New England 31 2 – 2 (+3.0) @ Atlanta 28 3 – 1 (-3.0)
Gee, knowing that Mike Vick wasn’t playing just MAY have made me pick this one a little differently. “Questionable” my… deep breaths. Feel the Zen, Dave, feel it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS – Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS – Atlanta

New Orleans 3 2 – 2 (+3.0) @ Green Bay 52 0 – 4 (-3.0)
“Going into Green Bay and winning isn’t as big of a deal as it once was. I really don’t think that Green Bay is an 0 – 5 team, and they are certainly due for a victory. However, New Orleans has shown little flashes of brilliance here and there, and I’m not going to pick against them, even though it may end up coming back to haunt me.” – Haunt me? This one flat out embarrassed me.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS – *New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS – *New Orleans

Tampa Bay 12 4 – 0 (-3.5) @ N.Y. Jets 14 1 – 3 (+3.5)
“While the story of 42-year-old Vinny Testeverde overcoming the undefeated team that drafted him is a heartwarming story, I’m not gonna let my heart talk me out of what I know is the right pick. Tampa Bay should stay undefeated in this one.” – Why is it that when I go with my heart, its wrong, and when I go against it, its right???
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS – Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS – Tampa Bay

Tennessee 34 1 – 3 (+3.0) @ Houston 20 0 – 3 (-3.0)
“Tennessee deserves a little bit more respect than they are being given this week, and I think they are going to go out and prove it.” – I thought right! Certainly a rarity this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN – *Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN – *Tennessee

Indianapolis 28 4 – 0 (-14.0) @ San Francisco 3 1 – 3 (+14.0)
“Peytons back. San Francisco just lost to Arizona. I’m going to go ahead and put the two together and say that Indianapolis is going to remain undefeated. Will they win by more than 14? Absolutely. I’m thinking it should be right around 41 – 10.” Not quite 41 – 10, but still good enough for me.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN – Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN – Indianapolis

Carolina 24 2 – 2 (-2.5) @ Arizona 20 1 – 3 (+2.5)
“Arizona is coming off a nice win in Mexico (that sounds weird…), but Carolina is also coming off a nice win against Green Bay. While they aren’t nearly as good as they are supposed to be this year (some were picking them to go to the super bowl), I still think that Carolina is good enough to take down the Cardinals.” – Alright!
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN – Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN – Carolina

Philadelphia 10 3 – 1 (-3.5) @ Dallas 33 2 – 2 (+3.5)
I… don’t… understand……. Must… gather…. coherent thought… can’t……
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS – $ Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS – Philadelphia

Cincinnati 20 4 – 0 (+2.5) @ Jacksonville 23 2 – 2 (-2.5)
“My best friend Sam Saig guarantees Jacksonville victory in this one. Looks like Vegas agrees with him. Unfortunately, I don’t.” – Unfortunate indeed, good call my friend.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS – Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS – Cincinnati

Pittsburgh 24 2 – 1 (+3.0) @ San Diego 22 2 – 2 (-3.0)
San Diego’s offense looks pretty unstoppable, but this week they are going against one of the league’s best rushing defenses. I think Pittsburgh has what it takes to win, but if I’m wrong and San Diego gets another convincing win here, they can start pleading their case of being one if the top contenders in the AFC.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN – *Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN – *Pittsburgh

DAMN, I’M GOOD

Seattle 37 2 – 2 (+3.0) @ St. Louis 31 2 – 2 (-3.0)
This is probably just my heart talking. Seattle is winless on the road, St. Louis is undefeated at home. It seems on paper to be a very easy pick. I’m not sure if its because I like Seattle and hate St. Louis, or whether I have a gut feeling. But I can justify this pick since I really don’t feel like St. Louis can stop Shawn Alexander, and Seattle really is the better of the two teams.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN – *Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN – *Seattle
– 119 yards and 2 TDs on 25 carries. Told you they couldn’t stop Alexander!

Washington 19 3 – 0 (+7.0) @ Denver 21 3 – 1 (-7.0)
Wait… Washington is undefeated? All of a sudden the team I was laughing at a few weeks ago appears to have a significantly better chance of making the playoffs than my Raiders. Unfortunately, their streak is going to end in Denver – but not as convincingly as Vegas seems to make it out to be. Denver wins, but not by too much.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN – *Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN – Denver
– Nailed this one. Feels good, considering I did have a LOSING record this week.

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
$ – Indicates Money Pick
^ – Indicates Zen Pick
(A Zen pick is a pick that I would have picked differently in the past, but am now ‘enlightened’)

Atlanta 3 – 2 (-3.5) @ New Orleans 2 – 3 (+3.5)
This is one of the few games I’m flat out going against my Zen book on. It states that you should take the team that just got pounded into submission last week, as they will be more likely to play their hearts out. I say, Mike Vick should be back, and rules don’t apply to him. And even if he isn’t, I still think that backup Matt Schaub has enough to beat the emotionally and literally battered Saints.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

Carolina 3 – 2 @ Detroit 2 – 2 (Pick’em)
Either team can win this ball game. Wow, very perceptive of me – ITS A PICK’EM. No spread, toss a coin. Or crunch the numbers, and see that Carolina’s defense is NOT what it was hyped up to be, and Detroit at home is very sound. And then take the better team.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Detroit

Cincinnati 4 – 1 (-3.0) @ Tennessee 2 – 3 (+3.0)
No need for number crunching or Zen on this one. Even I can figure this one out. While they burned me last week, the Bengals are still a great team, and Tennessee is a significant drop-off from Jacksonville. They should win convincingly here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati

Cleveland 2 – 2 (+4.0) @ Baltimore 1 – 3 (-4.0)
While neither team will impress you to death, Cleveland can at least string together a drive or two. Baltimore possesses the worst offense in the league, and what’s worse, their highly touted defense is a complete no-show this year. I’m going to have trouble picking them until they can show me ANYTHING on EITHER side of the ball.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Cleveland

Jacksonville 3 – 2 (+3.0) @ Pittsburgh 3 – 1 (-3.0)
Even battered and bruised, the Steelers are a damn strong team. Jacksonville is putting together a pretty impressive season themselves, but I believe that going into a very tough Pittsburgh stadium is going to be too tough a challenge for the Jaguars.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

Miami 2 – 2 (+4.0) @ Tampa Bay 4 – 1 (-4.0)
This one has defensive battle written all over it. Two run-based teams playing against two run-strong defenses. Miami has looked strong at certain points, but I think their lack of talent is starting to catch up to them. Tampa Bay should be able to overcome them at home, though not by much. I’m tempted to take the 4 points, but I’ll put my faith in the Bucs.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay

Minnesota 1 – 3 (+1.5) @ Chicago 1 – 3 (-1.5)
I like Minnesota. I think Chicago is useless. I’d like to think that every game is the game that the Vikings are going to pull it all together. But, honestly, I’m not too sure this is the game they’ll do it in. If they do, fantastic, I’ll take the loss. But Chicago at home isn’t the ideal place to get started, especially when you can’t stop the run.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^Chicago

N.Y. Giants 3 – 1 (+4.0) @ Dallas 3 – 2 (-4.0)
Both of these teams have impressed early on in the season. Dallas is coming off a fantastic win against the NFC’s best, and they are at home in this one. I think they have what it takes to stop the high powered Giants offense (that doesn’t feel right typing, yet it is statistically accurate) and pull off the W at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

Washington 3 – 1 (+6.0) @ Kansas City 2 – 2 (-6.0)
I’m going completely with my Zen book on this one. It states that when the spread looks completely messed up, don’t think Vegas made a mistake – its YOU that’s missing something. Well, Kansas City has looked AWFUL, and Washington has played four strong games this year. This spread is ridiculous, in my opinion. And because of that, I’m going to go with the philosophy that Vegas WANTS me to think this way, and go the opposite way.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^Kansas City

New England 3 – 2 (+3.0) @ Denver 4 – 1 (-3.0)
This isn’t the New England team we all have grown accustomed to. This team had trouble beating a Vickless Falcon team. They are not strong on defense. They have no running game. Denver, as much as I hate their guts, is putting together an excellent season. And at home, they are as sound as they come. Spells bad news for the defending super bowl champions.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver

N.Y. Jets 2 – 3 (+3.0) @ Buffalo 2 – 3 (-3.0)
Everything in my heart says the Jets are going to win. But the numbers completely disagree. While the Bills do have an awful pass defense, the Jets have an awful pass offense. And as for the running battle, Buffalo dominates completely. Plus, they are at home. So, I’ll take the smart pick, and save my stupid heart for the pick below.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^Buffalo

San Diego 2 – 3 (-2.0) @ Oakland 1 – 3 (+2.0)
I’ll be honest with you, San Diego is probably going to win this game. Neither team can stop the other’s highly powered passing game, and San Diego has a little X-Factor that goes by the name of LADANIAN TOMLINSON. However, a few things. First of all, the Raiders have been great against the run this year. Second, its in the black hole. Third, I still feel that on paper the Raiders are one of the teams to beat in the West, and that their schedule made it awfully difficult for them to start the season off strong. And fourth? The Zen book tells you never to bet blindly with your heart, but it doesn’t take into account just how big my heart is! (And the bonehead comment of the year award goes to…)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Oakland

Houston 0 – 4 (+8.5) @ Seattle 3 – 2 (-8.5)
The first of two large-spread games, and I’m giving the points in both of them. Seattle has played very well this season, and is phenomenal at home. As for Houston? They’ve done nothing this season to convince anyone that they are capable of winning. Their losing ways will continue with a Seattle slaughter here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle

St. Louis 2 – 3 (+12.5) @ Indianapolis 5 – 0 (-12.5)
My first impression was to go with St. Louis. But then I realized that first impressions can be and often are deceiving. There’s a reason the spread is this far apart: St. Louis can not stop the pass, and a guy named Peyton Manning, he’s GOT the pass. And the Colts defense is so strong this year that they can actually STOP a team like St. Louis. So yeah, I’ll give the 12.5, and hope for the best.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

Only two upsets this week. How interesting. Win or lose, I’m just glad to see the Raiders again! After the bye AND the plane ride home from ASU, I’ve miss them!

PLAYOFF BASEBALL COMMENTS

Well, I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a more clear cut act of referee’s favoritism then I’m seeing in the White Sox / Angels series right now in the White Sox favor. Sure, the occasional game is often blown by a referee, but the Angels have seen two games ruined by umpires. The completely absurd call in game 2 that accused Josh Paul of catching the ball on a bounce was ridiculous, and that may have been topped by the catcher’s interference non-call in game 4. What would have been bases loaded one out quickly became bases empty 3 outs because the umpire did not notice that Finley had struck Pyrzinski’s glove. The biggest shame here is that the White Sox are playing a damn good series, especially their starting pitching. While the series very well could be 3 – 1 in favor of the Angels, it could also be 3 – 1 LEGITIMATELY favoring the White Sox. Thanks to the umpires, Angel fans will always have a case, and regardless of who wins the series, it will be tarnished by these hideous game-altering miscalls

As for the Astros Cardinals series, it is going exactly as I’ve predicted it would (me… right?). Astro’s starting pitching dominating even the incredible Cardinal’s offense. I’d be awfully naive to say this ones anywhere close to over… but I’m a naive guy, and I say its 3 short games away from being over.

What an incredible starting pitching duel a White Sox Astro’s series would be! Not to mention, the White Sox haven’t won a series since 1917, and the Astros have never won one, so it would be cool to add either team to the memory bank of WS champs. However, lets not get ahead of ourselves… if last year taught us anything, its that ANYONE (the cursed Red Sox) can overcome ANY deficit (Down 3 – 0!).

KINGS HOCKEY COMMENTS

Well, early into the new season, I’m pretty damn pleased with this team. There is an awful lot of hockey to be played, and I’m not saying we’re going anywhere huge this year. But our 3 – 2 record could very easily be 5 – 0… a very poorly reffed game against Dallas and a few crucial mistakes against the Wings cost us a couple of wins. Don’t get me wrong, I understand that referees and mistakes are a part of the game. But I’m very pleased with our first five games; the new team looks awesome – Pavel Demitra and Dustin Brown are punishing the opposition, and guys like Roenick, Frolov, and Conroy still haven’t hit their peaks yet. Most importantly, I’m pleased in general that hockey is back and flourishing! And to all of you who let me know that you ARE hockey fans in LA, FIGHT ON!

Enjoy your Sunday and the rest of your week! If the Raiders and the Kings can both pull off wins tomorrow, I think they’d lock this up as my favorite weekend of all time, after that Trojan game. If they both lose… it’ll still be in the running! Please send feedback! For past issues of the DIME, visit my website: Dave’s Dime

MY TEAMS RECORDS
OAKLAND RAIDERS: 1 – 3 – 0
USC TROJANS: 6 – 0 – 0
LOS ANGELES KINGS: 3 – 2 – 0

TROJAN OUTSCORING O-METER
Season:
TROJANS 292
OPPONENTS 127

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