Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Well, it is official. After Sunday’s games, I’ve finished up my trip to the Super Bowl on a 4 – 0 run, finally shaking the playoff demons off of my back from last year. Heading into the Super Bowl last year, I was picking 30% winners with the spread, and 40% winners without it. 50% and 90% make me significantly happier.

Hated to see the Saints go, but I saw it coming. And as I hinted towards in last week’s Dime, all the Bears had to do was win last week to win the Super Bowl. How could I be so sure that they’d beat the AFC champ? Simple; I’d be rooting for the AFC Champ. And as you will read below, my support is about as welcome to a player as a picture on the cover of Sports Illustrated holding a black cat in one hand and a copy of Madden 08 with your face on it in the other.

So let’s get the festivities underway!

DON’T BET THE SUPER BOWL ONLINE!

As a followup to last week’s story, I feel it is important to warn you about a rumor going around in the gambling world.

Rumor has it that some sports books that are going under are staying open only for the Super Bowl, which is the most bet on event in the world, so as to make the most money they can before they shut down.

In other words, they are simply taking all the bets they can for the Super Bowl, only to shut down and keep all the money the next day. The likelihood of this will increase if the team with most of the action (it appears most people are betting the Bears +7 early…) wins, as books in financial trouble won’t be able to take the hit, and will instead just shut down or block US gamblers.

As such, with this possibility lurking, I highly recommend against betting the Super Bowl online. Find a friend that likes the other team.

If you’ve already bet the game online, there is no need to panic and get too worried. These rumors may be no more credible than Y2K doomsday theories, and your money may very well be fine.

Still, it seems like a fairly decent possibility, and I feel that it is better to let you all know what I do so that you can be aware, instead of getting blindsighted incase anything happens.

Good luck, and safe gambling.

THE RECORD

Season (Final)
With the spread: 126 – 121 – 9 (.510)
Without the spread: 154 – 102 – 0 (.602)
$$Money Picks$$: 27 – 30 – 1 (.474)
^^Zen Picks^^: 24 – 22 – 2 (.522)
**Outright Upsets**: 36 – 33 – 0 (.522)

Last Week
With the spread: 2 – 0 – 0 (1.000)
Without the spread: 2 – 0 (1.000)
OVER/UNDER: 1 – 1 – 0 (.500)
$$Money Picks$$: 1 – 0 – 0 (1.000)
^^Zen Picks^^: 1 – 0 – 0 (1.000)
**Outright Upsets**: 0 – 0 (N/A)

Playoffs
With the spread: 5 – 5 – 0 (.500)
Without the spread: 9 – 1 (.900)
OVER/UNDER: 5 – 5 – 0 (.500)
$$Money Picks$$: 2 – 1 – 0 (.666)
^^Zen Picks^^: 1 – 1 – 0 (.500)
**Outright Upsets**: 1 – 0 (1.000)

LAST WEEK’S RECAP OF DAVE’S BRILLIANCE AND FOOLISHNESS
(Often Foolishness)

#2 New Orleans 14 11 – 6 (+2.5) @ #1 Chicago 39 14 – 3 (-2.5)
Even if I did see it coming, it was still painful to watch New Orleans go down the way they did. Still, they should be able to build off this year’s success and be a contender in the NFC next season.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN Chicago
OVER/UNDER 47.5: LOSS UNDER

#4 New England 34 14 – 4 (+3.0) @ #3 Indianapolis 38 14 – 4 (-3.0)
A couple of months ago, a girl I know asked me why people liked football so much, and was especially curious about games that didn’t involve a favorite team. Games like this one, regardless of who you were rooting for, answer that question perfectly. If you missed it, don’t worry; it’ll have its run on ESPN Classic.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN ^$Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN Indianapolis
OVER/UNDER 43: WIN OVER

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
$ – Indicates Money Pick
^ – Indicates Zen Pick

#3 Indianapolis 15 – 4 (-7.0) @ #1 Chicago 15 – 3 (+7.0)

THE CONSOLAZIO CURSE

The biggest game of the year; the Super Bowl. Always a huge event, especially for an avid football fan like me. Last season, come this game, I broke down all of the stats and came to the conclusion that the Seahawks were the better team, and had less pressure to win, so they would be victorious. Didn’t exactly work out.

In fact, it never has. The Consolazio Curse has prevented the Oakland Raiders and the Los Angeles Kings from ever winning a championship in my lifetime. But there is more to it than just that.

It has also prevented the team I’ve rooted for in the Super Bowl, every single year, to lose without fail.

Granted, the bulk of the time I was rooting for the underdog. But even still, lets take a look…

SUPER BOWL XXXI: Green Bay VS. New England
– The first Super Bowl I remember. Others before it are just a blur, and I certainly didn’t have any preferences before this one. I was only 11 years old, and the family was in Las Vegas. I wasn’t a big Brett Favre fan, and I liked the idea of pulling for the underdog. So I rooted for New England.
Final Score: Green Bay 35, New England 21.
Likelihood: 90.34% (going by the odds in Vegas, likelihood that my team would lose)

SUPER BOWL XXXII: Green Bay VS. Denver
– As a Raider fan all my life, this one was pretty easy. I despised the Broncos and despised John Elway even more. Green Bay was the heavy favorite, and I remember vividly how much I wanted to see the Broncos fail.
Final Score: Denver 31, Green Bay 24.
Likelihood: 15.36%

SUPER BOWL XXXIII: Atlanta VS. Denver
– Think I stopped hating the Broncos over a one year span? No way. Besides, the Falcons were a fun team to watch that year.
Final Score: Denver 34, Atlanta 19
Likelihood: 74.58%

SUPER BOWL XXXIV: St. Louis VS. Tennessee
– I started disliking the Titans after this year, as my little brother jumped on the bandwagon and I had to go against him on pretty much everything. But in 1999, I still remember thinking that as a football fan in Los Angeles, you were either a RAIDER fan or a RAMS fan. I was a RAIDER fan, I had nothing against the Titans, and I’ll be damned if I was going to root for the Rams.
Final Score: St. Louis 23, Tennessee 16
Likelihood: 73.20%

SUPER BOWL XXXV: New York Giants VS. Baltimore
– Baltimore made it to the big game by injuring Rich Gannon in the playoffs, thanks to a big ol’ fat guy by the name of Tony Siragusa. Some people like to root for the team that beat theirs, so they can say “we got beat by the best”. Not me. I hated the damn Ravens, and jumped on board the Kerry Collins bandwagon.
Final Score: Baltimore 34, New York Giants 7
Likelihood: 58.78%

SUPER BOWL XXXVI: St. Louis VS. New England
– The year of the tuck rule, which cheated the Raiders out of a trip to the Super Bowl. I swore my hatred to Tom Brady and the Patriots that very day. I gave up my rule on rooting against the Rams and pulled for them, expecting the heavy favorites to get me some redemption.
Final Score: New England 20, St. Louis 17
Likelihood: 9.66%

SUPER BOWL XXXVII: Tampa Bay VS. Oakland
– The first time I actually had two teams that I liked in the Super Bowl. The problem? The wrong team won.
Final Score: Tampa Bay 48, Oakland 21
Likelihood: 37.78%

SUPER BOWL XXXVIII: Carolina VS. New England
– Two years removed, I’m still sour over the tuck rule, so I root for the underdog Panthers to get me some justice.
Final Score: New England 32, Carolina 29
Likelihood: 73.20%

SUPER BOWL XXXIX: Philadelphia VS. New England
– Starting to get the idea? Coupled with my Patriots hate (which now many others shared, as they were sick of them winning), I actually like the Eagles. It was over before it began.
Final Score: New England 24, Philadelphia 21
Likelihood: 73.20%

SUPER BOWL XXXX: Seattle VS. Pittsburgh
– Have never been a fan of Pittsburgh, and have liked the Seahawks ever since they left the AFC West. I couldn’t possibly lose 10 straight super bowls, could I?
Final Score: Pittsburgh 21, Seattle 10
Likelihood: 58.78%

Now remember that these percentages are merely how the spread determined the likely winner would be. They aren’t set in stone or anything. Still, they can be used as a guideline. And by using simple mathmatics with the numbers above, we find that the odds of what has happened to me over the last 10 years – losing all 10 games – is…

0.0512%

Or, even more painful to read…

1954 to 1.

That is right, faithful Dime readers. If we could travel to an alternate universe and replay all 10 of these games, 1953 out of 1954 times we should see at least one of the teams I was rooting for win.

But in this universe, I have defied all odds.

So put yourself in my shoes. Do you even bother to analyze this game? Break down the offenses, the defenses, the field conditions, the injuries, the weather?

There is no need for any of that. Peyton Manning is one of my favorite players, and the Colts are one of my favorite non-Raider teams. I dislike the Bears; they are pretty boring to me, and while I respect many of their players, I don’t particularly like any of them. This is a clear cut game for me. I, “VEGAS” DAVE CONSOLAZIO, AM ROOTING FOR THE INDIANAPOLIS COLTS.

As such, there is absolutely no question as to who the victor will be.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Chicago
OVER/UNDER 48.5: OVER

ANALYSIS?

For those of you that feel cheated and actually want some insight on the game, I’ll give you a little. In fact, I just want to use this section to refute a few misconceptions you might be hearing in the media this week.

The Bears have no offense, and have an unbeatable defense.

Don’t know how this is such common knowledge; it is wrong on both parts. The Colts, well known for their offense, scored 26.7 points per game this season, second only to the San Diego Chargers. As for the Bears? They scored the exact same 26.7 points per game this season. Granted, the defense created a lot of turnovers that gave them good field position; but that doesn’t take away from the simple fact that this team averaged very close to 4 TDs worth of scoring a game. Hardly useless on offense, whether you hate on Rex Grossman or not. As for their stingy defense? Well, it has given up 21+ points in 5 of its last 6 games. Again you could blame Grossman for turnovers or something like that, but no matter how you cut it, if the Rams, Buccaneers, Lions, Packers, and Seahawks can put up 3 TDs or more on you, there is no reason to deduce that Peyton and the Colts are doomed. (By the way, the Colts have only given up 21+ in 3 of their last 6).

The Bears are a smashmouth football team VS. a finesse Colts team, and will run the ball right down their throats.

Eh, not exactly. I guess people see the orange “C” and think back to the days of the Bears being a gritty, running team. I’m not saying that they AREN’T smashmouth or tough. I am saying, however, that their rushing game was ranked 15th and was only 2.6 yards higher than the league average. The Chiefs and the Patriots both were tougher rushing teams.

Rex Grossman needs to play a perfect game if the Bears are going to have any chance.

It would certainly help their cause if Rex was flawless. But this team has won 15 of the 18 games they’ve played this year with the 15th ranked passing offense in the league. Yes, thats right, they are 15th in both passing and rushing offense. They’ve won plenty of games behind mediocre performances. The media will make this out to be a battle of the QBs, but there is a lot more to it than that.

Don’t get me wrong, in all three losses, Rex Grossman played his part, throwing for 3 INTs in each loss.

He is 2 – 3 in games with 3+ interceptions though. The Bears beat the Vikings 23 – 13 despite a 6 for 19, 34 yard, 3 INT day from Grossman, and the Cardinals 24 – 23 despite 4 picks.

So needless to say, the more the Bears turn the ball over, the harder it will be for them to win the game. But that isn’t rocket science; that is a Madden-like observation. The point I’m trying to make here is that it won’t necessarily take a 300 yard, 4 TD, 0 INT from Grossman for the Bears to get the win… it hasn’t all season

Peyton still hasn’t ever won the big game.

You weren’t watching last week against the Patriots. That is the only explanation for a comment like this.

If the Colts lose this game, they will lose it because the Bears play a better game than they do. (Or, of course, because of the Consolazio Curse). I’m not saying that if Peyton Manning throws 6 interceptions that you can’t blame him. I am saying, however, that I’ve seen defenses make some great plays on Manning a lot more often than I’ve seen him make terrible decisions. If the Bears win this game, they deserve to be respected as the team that beat the Colts, not the team that was there when the Colts beat themselves.

Last Thoughts

I can’t remember the last time I saw a game where I could vividly see so many final scores in my mind. Usually, I have a pretty good feeling on who is going to win, and what the score will be like (even if I’m wrong 40% of the time). For example, I definitely thought that Ohio State would beat Florida by about 10. But I saw it potentially being close and going either way, an Ohio State blowout, or Florida maybe winning it by 7 or 14 tops. 41 – 14 Florida absolutely blew me away.

No possible outcome for this game will surprise me. This game could easily go 38 – 3 one way or the other. It could go 10 – 7, 21 – 17, 41 – 38. Both of these offenses and defenses are so unpredictable that I would not be surprised by anything. I know, this may seem kind of stupid; of course ANY game can go ANY number of ways, with bounces, momentum, refs, etc. all coming into play. But there is just something about this game that strikes me as very tough to pick.

But pick I must. If I didn’t believe so strongly in the Consolazio Curse, I think the pick to make is definitely the Colts. They knocked off the 2nd best running back in the league in Larry Johnson, the 2nd best team in the league (behind the Chargers) in the Ravens, and the true dynasty of this era in the Patriots to get here. They’ve done all of that on 2 TDs and 6 INTs from Peyton Manning. I feel like their best game of the playoffs has yet to come, and this is it. If I’m right, I don’t think the Bears can stop it.

With the spread? Well, here it gets tricky. After crunching the numbers, factoring everything in, etc, I’ve come up with the following (completely BS) numbers. I believe there is a…

40% Chance the Colts will win by 7 or more
25% Chance the Colts will win by 6 or less
35% Chance the Bears will win

So I think that the most likely scenario is the Colts covering… but if I were betting on the game, I’d have to take the Bears and the 7 points, considering there is (according to my estimations) a 60% chance that they cover.

Well, that’s it for me everyone. Now all that is left to do is eat nachos, drink beer, and enjoy the game.

(Or find a variation on the above that works for you. Nachos and beer should do me just fine.)
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Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel? SEND ME FEEDBACK!

MY TEAM’S RECORDS
OAKLAND RAIDERS: 2 – 14 – 0
USC TROJANS: 11 – 2 – 0
LOS ANGELES KINGS: 16 – 28 – 6

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