Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Turkey. Stuffing. Football. The Dime.

Truly a holiday tradition. Oh well, at least 3 out of 4 isn’t bad, huh?

Games on Thursday means getting the Dime out two days earlier, TWO WHOLE DAYS for players to get injured, get arrested, get cleared to play – that I can’t take into consideration.

Mainly, just gives me an excuse for when I suck this week. “Oh, didn’t have time to analyze, etc etc.”

But hey, without excuses, where would we be this holiday weekend? (“It’s Thanksgiving! It’s alright for me to pig out today!…right?”)

Yours truly will be eating like mad on Thursday, eating a bit more on Friday, catching the USC/Notre Dame game in the press box (and eating during commercial breaks), and I’ll finish off with a little bit more eating on Sunday.

…then back to the diet Monday!!! Honest!

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 9 – 5 – 2 (.643)
Without the spread: 10 – 6 – 0 (.625)
$$Money Picks$$: 1 – 1 – 0 (.500)
^^Zen Picks^^: 2 – 0 – 0 (1.000)
**Outright Upsets**: 3 – 3 – 0 (.500)

Season
With the spread: 76 – 76 – 8 (.500)
Without the spread: 99 – 61 – 0 (.619)
$$Money Picks$$: 14 – 19 – 1 (.424)
^^Zen Picks^^: 13 – 9 – 1 (.590)
**Outright Upsets**: 21 – 20 – 0 (.512)

LAST WEEK’S RECAP OF DAVE’S BRILLIANCE AND FOOLISHNESS
(Often Foolishness)

Pittsburgh 24 3 – 6 (-4.0) @ Cleveland 20 3 – 6 (+4.0)
“Look out for the Steeler’s late season run!!!!” Ugh, spare me.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: TIE Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN Pittsburgh

St. Louis 0 4 – 5 (+6.5) @ Carolina 15 5 – 4 (-6.5)
I remember something about a dominant Carolina defense… I thought it was a myth.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN ^Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN Carolina

Atlanta 10 5 – 4 (+4.0) @ Baltimore 24 7 – 2 (-4.0)
Might as well serve falcon instead of turkey this Thanksgiving, this bird is done.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS *Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS *Atlanta

Washington 17 3 – 6 (+3.0) @ Tampa Bay 20 2 – 7 (-3.0)
Wow, Washington really IS that bad, huh?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: TIE *Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN *Washington

Tennessee 31 2 – 7 (+13.0) @ Philadelphia 13 5 – 4 (-13.0)
McNabb out? Good thing there’s always next year.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN *Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS Philadelphia

Cincinnati 31 4 – 5 (+3.0) @ New Orleans 16 6 – 3 (-3.0)
Unlike the Steelers, this team just might resurge.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN *Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN *Cincinnati

Minnesota 20 4 – 5 (+3.5) @ Miami 24 3 – 6 (-3.5)
Damn, Minnesota looked decent to start this season off, too.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN Miami

Oakland 13 2 – 7 (+9.0) @ Kansas City 17 5 – 4 (-9.0)
Too bad wins with the spread don’t count in the record books.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN Kansas City

Buffalo 24 3 – 6 (+2.5) @ Houston 21 3 – 6 (-2.5)
“Who knows? Who cares?”, my opinion hasn’t changed.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN *Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN *Buffalo

New England 35 6 – 3 (-5.5) @ Green Bay 0 4 – 5 (+5.5)
Saw this one coming… didn’t see the zero coming, though.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN New England

Seattle 14 6 – 3 (-3.5) @ San Fransisco 20 4 – 5 (+3.5)
Seattle needs Matt Hasslebeck back now… RIGHT NOW.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle

Detroit 10 2 – 7 (+2.0) @ Arizona 17 1 – 8 (-2.0)
That win puts the Raiders back in contention for the number one pick. Good job Arizona!
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Detroit

Indianapolis 14 9 – 0 @ Dallas 21 5 – 4 (Pick’em)
Peyton, how could you?!?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

San Diego 35 7 – 2 (+2.5) @ Denver 27 7 – 2 (-2.5)
8 TDs in 2 games? As long as Ladanian Tomlinson keeps putting up video game numbers, good luck stopping this team.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN *$San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN *San Diego

DAMN, I’M GOOD

Chicago 10 8 – 1 (-6.0) @ New York Jets 0 5 – 4 (+6.0)
With the win over New England, and a close game against the Colts earlier this season, the surprising Jets have shown that they can compete with the best of them. At home, they are a tempting pick in this game, especially with 6 points. However, I don’t think their offense is versitile enough to trip up the Bears. And while I don’t see the Bears blowing them out, I do see them winning by a TD. So, unfortunately, I’ve gotta take them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago
– Pretty much nailed that one.

New York Giants 10 6 – 3 (+4.0) @ Jacksonville 26 5 – 4 (-4.0)
Besides the fact that Jacksonville needs a win badly, I find the spread for this game very interesting. You’d think that the Giants should be the favorite, wouldn’t you? Vegas is onto something here, and I’m on to the same thing. After last weeks loss to Houston, Jacksonville buries the Giants this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
– New York was the popular pick… didn’t fool me.

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
$ – Indicates Money Pick
^ – Indicates Zen Pick

Might be a trap week this week, because I’m confident in ALOT of these games.

THURSDAY

Miami 4 – 6 (-3.0) @ Detroit 2 – 8 (+3.0)
Ok, it is one thing to PICK the Dolphins. But to MONEY PICK them? Sadly, I pretty much have to. Their defense has been amazing, and Detroit is the perfect team to make costly mistakes and have them come back to bite them. Miami by a TD, at least.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Miami

Tampa Bay 3 – 7 (+11.0) @ Dallas 6 – 4 (-11.0)
This might be a mistake, but it also might be a little Zen genius at work. Okay, so Tampa Bay beat the Redskins, and should be really confident in themselves. Meanwhile, Dallas just beat the best team in the league, and might be a little OVERconfident. Plus at home, plus on Thanksgiving, all the pressure is on them to blow Tampa Bay out of the water. And while they should, I’ll pick that they won’t, and take the 11 points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

Denver 7 – 3 (+1.5) @ Kansas City 6 – 4 (-1.5)
Week 1 excluded, Denver has only been beaten by two teams; the Chargers and the Colts. Absolutely overpowering offenses. The Chiefs can move the ball, but not on par with those teams. Denver certainly isn’t flashy, but they should be able to top the Chiefs this Thanksgiving.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Denver

SUNDAY

Pittsburgh 4 – 6 (+3.0) @ Baltimore 8 – 2 (-3.0)
Sorry Pittsburgh, but the winning streak, and your season, end right here. Baltimore is the quietest powerhouse that I’ve seen in a while, and they play the same style football that Pittsburgh does – they just do it better.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

Carolina 6 – 4 (-4.0) @ Washington 3 – 7 (+4.0)
Games this easy make me uncomfortable. Horrible Washington on a two game losing streak against contender Carolina on a two game winning streak, at only 4 points. What could go wrong…?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina

New Orleans 6 – 4 (+3.0) @ Atlanta 5 – 5 (-3.0)
While I’m tempted to take the Falcons in another “burst out” opportunity, and I’ll probably regret not doing so later, the simple fact is that Atlanta’s pass defense isn’t very good. And New Orleans’ pass offense IS very good. Atlanta has lost games like this before, so I’ll assume they lose this one too.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *New Orleans

San Francisco 5 – 5 (+5.5) @ St. Louis 4 – 6 (-5.5)
My original pick was St. Louis, but you know, I can’t just keep ignoring the 49ers. They have played well enough to warrent a pick at +5.5, and with the strong running matchup, they should keep it close. I won’t take them outright… but I’ll take the points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: St. Louis

Houston 3 – 7 (+6.0) @ New York Jets 5 – 5 (-6.0)
Last week, the home crowd had to sit and watch their team fail to put up a single point. Now they get an easy Houston team this week. They will come out completely hyped up and beat the Texans by more than two scores.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^$New York Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Jets

Arizona 2 – 8 (+6.0) @ Minnesota 4 – 6 (-6.0)
Tough to take Minnesota -6.0 against anybody these days, but at home, I feel like I have to. Arizona won’t be able to run on this team, so they will be able to focus on the pass… and make a big play or two on defense to get the TD they need to cover.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Minnesota

Cincinnati 5 – 5 (-3.0) @ Cleveland 3 – 7 (+3.0)
All season I’ve been talking about how tough the Browns have played, and this spread indicates that Vegas realizes that. But Cinci needs to win 5 of their next 6 games if they are going to make it into the playoffs… and if this was the 1 loss, its season over. I don’t think they are going to let that happen.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^$Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati

Jacksonville 6 – 4 (-3.0) @ Buffalo 4 – 6 (+3.0)
Money picks a plenty this week… but I can’t help myself. Yes, Buffalo gets the occasional upset, and yes, Jacksonville has been on the recieving end of them this year. But 3 points? Come on, this is a pretty solid team. Lets give them a little more credit than this.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Jacksonville

Oakland 2 – 8 (+13.5) @ San Diego 8 – 2 (-13.5)
Every week I pick against the Raiders, and every week it seems they cover the spread. Of course, they don’t win the game for my enjoyment… just lose in a frustrating manner. This week will probably be no exception… but the Raiders don’t have the offense to keep up with the Chargers, and certainly don’t have the defense to stop them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

New York Giants 6 – 4 (-3.0) @ Tennessee 3 – 7 (+3.0)
While the Giants have played like a complete joke over the last two weeks, lets not forget how good the Bears’ and Jaguars’ defenses are. The Giants need a win badly this week, and Tennessee should be a pushover at only 3 points. Should be…
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $New York Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Giants

Chicago 9 – 1 (+3.0) @ New England 7 – 3 (-3.0)
New England is a tough place to play, especially as we start getting later into the year. Grossman has proven to be efficient as a QB, but a game like this one will really gauge Chicago’s power… and I think they will fall short.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

Philadelphia 5 – 5 (+9.0) @ Indianapolis 9 – 1 (-9.0)
What was shaping up to be a duel between two of the great QBs in the game now is simply a statement game for the Colts. With no McNabb, Philly should have no chance of keeping up with the Colts who will be out to make a statement this week that last week was a fluke, and that they ARE the real deal.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

MONDAY

Green Bay 4 – 6 (+9.5) @ Seattle 6 – 4 (-9.5)
The boys are back in town! Lame Randy Newman song, or the theme of this game? You decide. But with Alexander and Hasselback both back, at home, so should be the Seahawks. Favre not at 100% makes this a decent pick, even at -9.5.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 28 – 25 – 2 (.528)

1. Purdue Boilermakers (+17.0) @ Hawaii Warriors (-17.0)
I’ll be honest… it feels a little weird picking the WARRIORS over a legitimate 8 – 4 Boilermakers team that lost to the likes over Notre Dame by only 14. But Hawaii is a well oiled machine right now, and they look like they could compete against – and blow out – almost anyone. I simply don’t see Purdue’s defense doing a damn thing about it. Couple that with the negative coverage of a few of their players being arrested at a party on Sunday on their minds, and you’ve got yourself a good betting opportunity.

2. LSU Tigers @ Arkansas Razorbacks (Pick’em)
LSU is a damn strong team, and when you look at the numbers, they are actually a tad bit better on both offense and defense. This game however is in Arkansas… and they have been simply incredible since week 2. On paper, this may be a coinflip, but I’d say its a lot closer to 60/40 in Arkansas’ favor.

3. BYU Cougars (-10.0) @ Utah Utes (+10.0)
Should come as no surprise to you that I’m taking the Cougars AGAIN. While they did fail to cover for only the second time this season, that won’t dissuade me from going back to them. At only -10 against what I consider to be a fairly weaker team, the mormons shouldn’t have any trouble taking care of business.

4. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (+1.5) @ Maryland Terps (-1.5)
One of the season’s biggest surprises was Wake Forest, who has came out of nowhere to beat some pretty damn good teams. While I’m not 100% sure they can go into Maryland and take out the Terps, in this tough college football week, they’ve got my vote.

5. Cincinnati Bearcats (-4.0) @ Connecticut Huskies (+4.0)
Coming off of a very impressive upset win against Rutgers, Cinci now faces a significantly easier opponent in the Huskies… and I think that 4 points is far too low of a spread to really give the Huskies a chance.

HONORABLE MENTION (15 – 16 – 0):

None! 5 is enough for me this week. But just for analysis’ sake…

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+7.5) @ USC Trojans (-7.5)
The Trojans are going to win this game, that much I’m sure of. So the question is, how will they do so? I think there are two likely scenarios. One; Our defense stays in its incredible mode, all but shuts down the Notre Dame offense, and the Trojans win comfortably. Or two; Shootout. Both teams score back and forth, but the Trojans make the big play to get the victory.

I’m leaning towards the latter. Look for the game to be close/exciting, but in a way that you are never genuinly concerned that you might lose… kind of like OSU was in the Michigan game. If I had to bet, I’d take the 7.5 points… but why on earth would I bet against my alma mater?

YOU SAID IT!

Don’t be shy. Write in with whatever you’ve got! Predictions? Witty banter? Anything?

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Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel? SEND ME FEEDBACK!

MY TEAM’S RECORDS
OAKLAND RAIDERS: 2 – 8 – 0
USC TROJANS: 9 – 1 – 0
LOS ANGELES KINGS: 7 – 12 – 4

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