2006 NFL Newsletter: Dave’s Dime Week 14

By , December 7, 2006

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

(Hey all. Yesterday at around 3 oclock I had DEL TACO, and have taken from it one of the worst cases of food poisoning I have ever had. I’ve been terribly sick and completely incapacitated, and am heading to the hospital shortly. Don’t worry about me, I’m sure I’m fine… but I wasn’t able to finish the Dime. Still, since I typed up a lot of it, I figured I’d send you what I had, which is missing some game commentaries but has my picks. I’ll go over these picks in my recap next week.

Thank you for understanding and enjoy! – Dave)

It’s been a lousy semester for me, filled with lots of stress, and football really hasn’t been the focus that it has been in the past for me. As such, my numbers have struggled.

Now that the semester is over, I can get back on track for the home stretch.

And there’s no better way to do that then to get back into the Zen spirit.

For those of you that are new to the Dime (or those of you that had forgotten) “Zen” stands for a book called “The Zen of Gambling” by Wayne Allen Root that goes over how to look past just the numbers and how to pick winners based on player moods, public perceptions, etc.

Over the next few weeks, I’m going to make a lot of “stupid” picks. I’ll explain them the best that I can, and won’t always expect you to believe in or agree with me.

But last week, favorites only went 7 – 7… STRAIGHT UP. There is more to the NFL then what meets the eye… and I’m going to try and find it.

Enjoy the ride.

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 6 – 10 – 0 (.375)
Without the spread: 9 – 7 – 0 (.562)
$$Money Picks$$: 0 – 2 – 0 (.000)
^^Zen Picks^^: 0 – 0 – 0 (N/A)
**Outright Upsets**: 1 – 0 – 0 (1.000)

Season
With the spread: 91 – 93 – 8 (.495)
Without the spread: 120 – 72 – 0 (.625)
$$Money Picks$$: 18 – 24 – 1 (.429)
^^Zen Picks^^: 15 – 10 – 1 (.600)
**Outright Upsets**: 23 – 21 – 0 (.523)

LAST WEEK’S RECAP OF DAVE’S BRILLIANCE AND FOOLISHNESS
(Often Foolishness)

Arizona 34 2 – 9 (+6.5) @ St. Louis 20 5 – 6 (-6.5)
“This kind of looks like a decent upset pick, but I’ll pass.” – Why?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS St. Louis

Atlanta 24 5 – 6 (+2.0) @ Washington 14 4 – 7 (-2.0)
And with that, the Falcons are back in the NFC race.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN *Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN *Atlanta

Detroit 21 2 – 9 (+13.5) @ New England 28 8 – 3 (-13.5)
Detroit is the NFC’s Raiders; they can keep some games close, but can’t win them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN New England

Indianapolis 17 10 – 1 (-7.5) @ Tennessee 20 4 – 7 (+7.5)
This was an obvious upset pick (with the points that is), and I’m upset that I didn’t make it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS Indianapolis

Kansas City 28 7 – 4 (-4.5) @ Cleveland 31 3 – 8 (+4.5)
This one, on the other hand, really did catch me off guard.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS Kansas City

Minnesota 13 5 – 6 (+9.5) @ Chicago 23 9 – 2 (-9.5)
Minnesota is making a habit of narrowly losing by the spread lately.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS *Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN Chicago

N.Y. Jets 38 6 – 5 @ Green Bay 10 4 – 7 (Pick’em)
The better team simply won this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN N.Y. Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN N.Y. Jets

San Diego 24 9 – 2 (-6.0) @ Buffalo 21 5 – 6 (+6.0)
Don’t regret this pick at all… just disappointed in the result.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS $San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS San Diego

San Francisco 10 5 – 6 (+7.0) @ New Orleans 34 7 – 4 (-7.0)
About time Reggie had a USC-like day!
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN New Orleans

Houston 23 3 – 8 (+3.0) @ Oakland 14 2 – 9 (-3.0)
First round pick on a reciever maybe? Can’t see Moss sticking with this team much longer.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS Oakland

Jacksonville 24 6 – 5 @ Miami 10 5 – 6 (Pick’em)
The Dolphins finally crash back down to earth and the Jags get a much needed win.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS Miami

Dallas 23 7 – 4 (-3.5) @ N.Y. Giants 20 6 – 5 (+3.5)
Sloppy game, but once again, Romo gets it done in the clutch.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS $Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN Dallas

Tampa Bay 3 3 – 8 (+7.0) @ Pittsburgh 20 4 – 7 (-7.0)
Lousy game or not, at least it got me a much-needed win.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN Pittsburgh

Seattle 23 7 – 4 (+4.0) @ Denver 20 7 – 4 (-4.0)
Rough first game for Cutler, but it WAS just that – a first game.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN *Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS Denver

Carolina 24 6 – 5 (-3.0) @ Philadelphia 27 5 – 6 (+3.0)
Idiot playcalling and execution lost this one for the Panthers and for me right at the end of the game.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS Carolina

DAMN, I’M GOOD

Nothing all that special this week.

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
$ – Indicates Money Pick
^ – Indicates Zen Pick

A whopping TEN zen picks this week. Ready for this?

THURSDAY

Cleveland 7 4 – 8 (+7.0) @ Pittsburgh 27 5 – 7 (-7.0)
Hate to keep saying “I told you so” after the fact, but this should be the last week I don’t get the Dime out before the Thursday night game, since my last final is on Tuesday. Point is, with a backup QB and having left it all out on the field in last week’s upset, I didn’t expect Cleveland to do much in this game… and they didn’t.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN Pittsburgh

SUNDAY

Atlanta 6 – 6 (-3.0) @ Tampa Bay 3 – 9 (+3.0)
No Zen magic here. Atlanta is simply the better team, and I don’t see Tampa Bay doing too much to stop them. And that’s saying alot, considering how little faith I have in Atlanta.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

Baltimore 9 – 3 (+3.0) @ Kansas City 7 – 5 (-3.0)
Coming off of two division rivalry games and with two more on the way after this week, Baltimore has got to be mentally fatigued. Couple that with the fact that the Chiefs just got embarasssed by the Browns last week and need a win in front of their home crowd this week, and you’ve got yourself a winner.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Kansas City

Indianapolis 10 – 2 @ Jacksonville 7 – 5 (Pick’em)
This game is really bugging me, because I do feel that Indianapolis is the better team. I also feel that going into hostile Jacksonville with a defense that can’t stop the run at all is certainly not a recipe for success. Hmm. I really have no idea. Jacksonville is sticking out at me… so I’ll take them, but this one is virtually a coin flip.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Jacksonville

Minnesota 5 – 7 (+1.5) @ Detroit 2 – 10 (-1.5)
A pretty popular Zen pick is to bet against teams that have won 3 (or more) in a row, and bet for teams that have lost 3 (or more) in a row. Why? Because these teams are overconfident and extremely hungry, respectively. Detroit has lost 3 in a row and are playing a beatable team in Minnesota this week. They’ll handle it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Detroit

New England 9 – 3 (-3.5) @ Miami 5 – 7 (+3.5)
Now we come to betting against a team that has won 3 in a row. Also, why WOULDN’T the Dolphins be chomping at the bits to beat a division rival in front of the home crowd? New England is the better team but they aren’t unbeatable anymore, and I think Miami can take them this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Miami

N.Y. Giants 6 – 6 (+3.0) @ Carolina 6 – 6 (-3.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*$N.Y. Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *N.Y. Giants

Oakland 2 – 10 (+11.0) @ Cincinnati 7 – 5 (-11.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*$Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati

Philadelphia 6 – 6 (-1.5) @ Washington 4 – 8 (+1.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

Tennessee 5 – 7 @ Houston 4 – 8 (Pick’em)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston

Green Bay 4 – 8 (+4.0) @ San Francisco 5 – 7 (-4.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

Seattle 8 – 4 (-3.0) @ Arizona 3 – 9 (+3.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle

Buffalo 5 – 7 (+3.5) @ N.Y. Jets 7 – 5 (-3.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: N.Y. Jets

Denver 7 – 5 (+7.5) @ San Diego 10 – 2 (-7.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Denver

New Orleans 8 – 4 (+7.0) @ Dallas 8 – 4 (-7.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

MONDAY

Chicago 10 – 2 (-6.0) @ St. Louis 5 – 7 (+6.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *St. Louis

————–
Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel? SEND ME FEEDBACK!

MY TEAM’S RECORDS
OAKLAND RAIDERS: 2 – 10 – 0
USC TROJANS: 10 – 2 – 0
LOS ANGELES KINGS: 11 – 16 – 4

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