2006 NFL Newsletter: Dave’s Dime Week 16

By , December 21, 2006

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Sorry about last week everyone. I let someone who knew football do the Dime for me.

But I’m back now, we can get back to mediocrity and self-loathing.

Seriously though, how scary was this fortelling job in my intro last week?

“I’m due for a 13 – 3 week anyways, aren’t I???”

For those of you that don’t keep count (and why aren’t you?? Don’t you live and breathe the Dime?) that is exactly what I turned out. 13 – 3. Thats 80% winners. That’s good football.

A fluke or a sign of things to come? With two more weeks, only time will tell. But I do have one more thing to say…

I’m due for a 12 – 4 week anyways, aren’t I???

Merry Christmas everyone, and to those of you who don’t celebrate it, happy holidays! Whatever you’re celebrating, I hope it is wonderful.

Huge Dime this week with 32 games on hand!

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 13 – 3 – 0 (.813)
Without the spread: 11 – 5 – 0 (.688)
$$Money Picks$$: 4 – 0 – 0 (1.000)
^^Zen Picks^^: 4 – 1 – 0 (.800)
**Outright Upsets**: 3 – 2 – 0 (.600)

Season
With the spread: 112 – 104 – 8 (.519)
Without the spread: 139 – 85 – 0 (.621)
$$Money Picks$$: 25 – 26 – 1 (.490)
^^Zen Picks^^: 22 – 18 – 1 (.550)
**Outright Upsets**: 29 – 25 – 0 (.537)

LAST WEEK’S RECAP OF DAVE’S BRILLIANCE AND FOOLISHNESS
(Often Foolishness)

San Francisco 24 5 – 8 (+9.5) @ Seattle 14 8 – 5 (-9.5)
Seattle is the NFC’s quietest playoff bound team, and games like this remind us why.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN *^San Fransisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS Seattle

Dallas 38 8 – 5 (-3.5) @ Atlanta 28 7 – 6 (+3.5)
Nobody is questioning Dallas’s ability to score… but their defense has left a bit to be desired of late.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN Dallas

Detroit 9 2 – 11 (+5.0) @ Green Bay 17 5 – 8 (-5.0)
Picking against Detroit is becoming the cool thing to do.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN $Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN Green Bay

Jacksonville 17 8 – 5 (-3.5) @ Tennessee 24 6 – 7 (+3.5)
It’s truly pathetic to see Jacksonville squander their season, and truly impressive to see the Titans make an amazing story out of theirs.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN *^Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN *Tennessee

Miami 0 6 – 7 (+1.0) @ Buffalo 21 6 – 7 (-1.0)
Too bad for Buffalo (and Tennessee too actually) they aren’t in the NFC, or their playoff hopes would still be in tact.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS *Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS *Miami

N.Y. Jets 26 7 – 6 (+3.0) @ Minnesota 13 6 – 7 (-3.0)
Wins against Miami and Oakland could make the Jets the second biggest playoff surprise of the year (see Saints, New Orleans)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN *$N.Y. Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN *N.Y. Jets

Pittsburgh 37 6 – 7 (-2.5) @ Carolina 3 6 – 7 (+2.5)
Say what you will about the Raiders, but I think Carolina is the most pathetic team in the NFL. They’ve actually GOT talent, they just don’t use it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS *^Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS *Carolina

Tampa Bay 31 3 – 10 (+13.5) @ Chicago 34 11 – 2 (-13.5)
Sadly, I actually flirted with picking Tampa Bay. Pretty pathetic effort by Chicago but who can blame them?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN Chicago

Washington 16 4 – 9 (+9.5) @ New Orleans 10 9 – 4 (-9.5)
Saints fans, don’t sweat it… they had to have a slow game offensively sooner or later.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN *^Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS New Orleans

Denver 37 7 – 6 (-3.0) @ Arizona 20 4 – 9 (+3.0)
Solid game for Cutler, but hardly the league’s toughest defense on the other end.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN $Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN Denver

Philadelphia 36 7 – 6 (+5.5) @ N.Y. Giants 22 7 – 6 (-5.5)
McNabb be damned? All of a sudden, Phili is no longer a long shot to make the playoffs this year.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN *Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS N.Y. Giants

St. Louis 20 5 – 8 (+2.5) @ Oakland 0 2 – 11 (-2.5)
For the first time in ages, the Raiders don’t screw me over. They do embarass themselves as usual, though.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN *St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN *St. Louis

Kansas City 9 7 – 6 (+9.0) @ San Diego 20 11 – 2 (-9.0)
LT is God, and this team can actually play a bit of defense too. Super Bowl, anyone?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN ^San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN San Diego

Cincinnati 16 8 – 5 (+3.0) @ Indianapolis 34 10 – 3 (-3.0)
Huge game for Peyton and the offense, but much more importantly, the defense actually held a team to 16 points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN Indianapolis

DAMN, I’M GOOD

Cleveland 17 4 – 9 (+11.0) @ Baltimore 27 10 – 3 (-11.0)
This is a tough one. I don’t want to show any lack of respect to one of the AFC’s best, and Cleveland has been getting bullied around alot lately. Still, a division rival, a hard nosed team… I can’t help but think Cleveland is going to keep it respectable.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN *Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN Baltimore
– It’s just cool to be this right.

Houston 7 4 – 9 (+11.5) @ New England 40 9 – 4 (-11.5)
Coming off of a humiliating shutout loss to the Dolphins, the team on the other side of the “New England -11” line is irrelevent. New England will not let anyone dwell on their weakness, and Houston is in the wrong place at the wrong time.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN ^$New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN New England
– Not that it’s that big of a deal, but I just love when games go EXACTLY how I imagine them.

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
$ – Indicates Money Pick
^ – Indicates Zen Pick

THURSDAY
Minnesota 6 – 8 (+3.5) @ Green Bay 6 – 8 (-3.5)
In what will likely be Favre’s last game in front of the home fans in Green Bay, going against a weak passing defense is just begging for a 4 TD, heroic send off. Or, at the very least, a victory by more than 4 points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^$Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

SATURDAY
Kansas City 7 – 7 (-6.5) @ Oakland 2 – 12 (+6.5)
This is a tough, tough game. Zen rules don’t really seem to apply to the Raiders – they are just so horribly bad on offense that it doesn’t matter what motivation or reasoning they have to win. They are a home underdog against a division rival in their last game at home. They just lost a game at home in embarassing fashion. Everyone is counting them out… It’s seriously a Zen dream. And yet, they are so bad, it never seems to matter. What to do? I guess I’ll reluctantly take the points… but I just don’t see them winning. I wish the defense’s heart was enough.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *^^Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Kansas City

SUNDAY
Baltimore 11 – 3 (+3.5) @ Pittsburgh 7 – 7 (-3.5)

This was going to be my big upset pick… until I saw that Pittsburgh was favored! Yes its in Pittsburgh and yes they’ve been playing great football and yes they’d love to beat a division rival. And that was why I was going to pick them. But you are going to GIVE me points to take one of the AFC’s best teams? I’m not going to pass on that, trap or no trap.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Baltimore

Carolina 6 – 8 (+6.0) @ Atlanta 7 – 7 (-6.0)
Carolina is pretty much dead to me. They are due for a big game and in all likelihood they will have it here… but this team just doesn’t ever seem to show up, and I’m through wasting picks on them. I’d probably take the Raiders against them at this point… but the Falcons actually have a REAL chance of winning.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

Chicago 12 – 2 (-5.0) @ Detroit 2 – 12 (+5.0)
Chicago has nothing to play for… nothing. They’ve clinched home field throughout the playoffs. Detroit meanwhile is playing for their jobs, pride, passion, whatever. While the fact that the Bears cut it close against Tampa Bay makes me a bit nervous they might take this game seriously, the fact remains that this is the kind of game that Vegas makes a LOT of money on.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *^Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Detroit

Indianapolis 11 – 3 (-9.0) @ Houston 4 – 10 (+9.0)
While Indy is coming off a huge win and Houston is coming off a huge loss could mean trouble for the Colts emotion-wise, I don’t think that will factor in here. Indy needs to regain the intimidation factor that they had throughout the season before the playoffs begin, and squeaking by a team like Houston wouldn’t do the trick. Blowing them out in their own stadium is almost manditory, and I think Peyton and the gang are up to the task.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

New England 10 – 4 (+2.5) @ Jacksonville 8 – 6 (-2.5)
I understand why Jacksonville is the favorite… they are a shutdown defensive team that, when on, is exceptionally tough to beat. The problem is, they are a scizophrenic team facing a perennial winner. If they can put all the pieces together, they can beat New England. But that’s an if… and there are no “ifs” when the Patriots play. Anytime I can get this team WITH points in December, I’ll take it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *New England

New Orleans 9 – 5 (+3.0) @ N.Y. Giants 7 – 7 (-3.0)
At home in a game that they absolutely must win, the Giants could be pretty dangerous. They also might have the running game to expose New Orlean’s defense. All that said, they are too inconsistant on both sides of the ball to take against a team like New Orleans, which is coming off a rare off-game and should refind their grove here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *New Orleans

Tampa Bay 3 – 11 (+3.0) @ Cleveland 4 – 10 (-3.0)
This game should be down in the bowl section below under the “who cares” bowl. Honestly, these are two terrible teams with nothing but pride to play for… I genuinely have no idea who’s going to win. I’ll take Tampa Bay to build off of their respectable loss to the Bears, I suppose… but I certainly won’t be watching this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Tampa Bay

Tennessee 7 – 7 (+4.5) @ Buffalo 7 – 7 (-4.5)
Now this is an interesting game, pitting two of the AFC’s hottest teams against eachother. These two teams have won against the spread for the last 6 weeks in a row! Now someones gotta lose against it. And I’ve gotta take the Bills. Tennessee is coming off of three straight divisional games and five straight wins. They are due for a letdown game… and this game is in Buffalo. The magic finally comes to an end this week… I think?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Buffalo

Washington 5 – 9 (+2.0) @ St. Louis 6 – 8 (-2.0)
Another good “who cares” game, except this one has two teams that actually had high expectations coming into the season. I’ve gotta take the Redskins in this one, simply because St. Louis’s defense is downright horrible, and one great game against the Raiders won’t cure that.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Washington

Arizona 4 – 10 (+4.0) @ San Francisco 6 – 8 (-4.0)
At least there is a lot of exciting young talent in this game. Arizona shouldn’t have much trouble passing the ball, and San Francisco shouldn’t have much trouble running it. I’ll take Frank Gore and the running game and home field advantage in this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco

Cincinnati 8 – 6 (+3.0) @ Denver 8 – 6 (-3.0)
Undoubtedly the game of the week, the team that loses this one is likely out of the playoff hunt. The game is pretty much a coin flip… both teams have plenty of weaknesses, and it all depends on who can exploit who’s better. As such, I’ll take the team I like over the team I hate. This should be a great game to watch, and either team isn’t a bad bet… but I say Cinci’s passing game has its way and pulls it out.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Cincinnati

San Diego 12 – 2 (-4.5) @ Seattle 8 – 6 (+4.5)
Seattle is due for a big game, especially after coming off yet another disappointing home loss to San Francisco. The problem? They are playing what is probably the league’s best team, who is also in a tight race for home field advantage throughout the playoffs. While Seattle may very well put it all together, getting the chargers at -less then a touchdown is a bet you simply have to make.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

MONDAY
Philadelphia 8 – 6 (+7.0) @ Dallas 9 – 5 (-7.0)
Another great game with playoff implications written all over it. Phili’s three game winning streak has been impressive, but the wins have come against braindead Carolina, weak Washington, and the self-imploding Giants. They haven’t faced a team quite like the Cowboys in a while, and with homefield advantage, I’ve got them winning this game by double digits.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

N.Y. Jets 8 – 6 (+2.5) @ Miami 6 – 8 (-2.5)
This game hurts, because I DEFINITELY want the Jets to win. I’ve got a gut feeling that Miami is going to beat them, however… and on top of that, Zen would agree… Miami has nothing to lose and can play the game loose, while the Jets are in a must-win situation. I’ll be wearing my Pennington jersey and rooting for the Jets, but I don’t think I’ll like the results.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Miami

COLLEGE NICKEL: BOWL EDITION

With the spread: 1 – 0 – 0 (1.000)
Without the spread: 1 – 0 (1.000)
$$Money Picks$$: 0 – 0 – 0 (N/A)
^^Zen Picks^^: 0 – 0 – 0 (N/A)
**Outright Upsets**: 0 – 0 (N/A)

Man I’m exhausted… 16 NFL game not enough for you? How about 16 bowl games this week, too?

12 / 21 LAS VEGAS BOWL
BYU Cougars 10 – 2 (-3.0) @ Oregon Ducks 7 – 5 (+3.0)
The line is moving in Oregon’s favor, and I’m thinking it might have something to do with their relatively strong passing defense. No matter. While I can’t pick favorites across the board, seeing one of my favorite betting teams at just -3.0 is a little too sweet for me to pass up on. Should be a good game to see what both teams are made of.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $BYU Cougars
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: BYU Cougars

12 / 22 NEW ORLEANS BOWL
Troy State Trojans 7 – 5 (+4.0) @ Rice Owls 7 – 5 (-4.0)
The Owls are a decent team on an amazing run, having won 5 straight even WITH the spread. You know what I like to do when teams are on runs like that – bet AGAINST them. Neither team is particularly good, but I’ll trust the Zen mindset here and take the team getting less attention.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Troy State Trojans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Troy State Trojans

12 / 23 PAPAJOHNS.COM BOWL
East Carolina Pirates 7 – 5 (+5.0) @ South Florida Bulls 8 – 4 (-5.0)
Both of these teams do very well aainst the spread, and with a fresh Papa John’s pizza with that garlic sauce on the line, you just never know. South Florida is not only the slightly better team, but they also would like to carry the momentum of their West Virginia upset into a strong finish to the season. I think they’ll be able to.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: South Florida Bulls
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: South Florida Bulls

12 / 23 NEW MEXICO BOWL
San Jose State Spartans 8 – 4 (+3.5) @ New Mexico Lobos 6 – 6 (-3.5)
While it’s a big bowl no-no to bet against a home team in bowl games, I’m going to do just that this year. I don’t think New Mexico has enough on the defensive side of the ball to keep San Jose out of the endzone, and while the game should be close, San Jose should be able to pull it off… even against a home team.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *San Jose State Spartans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *San Jose State Spartans

12 / 23 ARMED FORCES BOWL
Utah Utes 7 – 5 (-1.0) @ Tulsa Golden Hurricans 8 – 4 (+1.0)
While I’m a little concerned with Utah’s ability to stop the run as well as the fact that they’ve been playing great football, Tulsa is the statistically stronger team – on top of that, Utah is only favored because they’ve been playing so well. I’ll take Tulsa to put it all together this week and get the win.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *^Tulsa Golden Hurricanes
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tulsa Golden Hurricanes

12 / 24 HAWAII BOWL
Arizona State Sun Devils 7 – 5 (+6.5) @ Hawaii Warriors 10 – 3 (-6.5)
Anyone who’s paid any attention to the Dime whatsoever already knows who I’m taking in this one. While Arizona State isn’t totally useless on defense, stopping the Warriors is a tough tough thing to do. Couple that with the fact that its in Hawaii, and I’ll disagree with the betting public (who’s been betting Arizona State) and take the Warriors to win in a shootout by the needed TD.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^$Hawaii Warriors
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Hawaii Warriors

12 / 26 MOTOR CITY BOWL
Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders (+9.0) @ Central Michigan Chippewas (-9.0)
Since this IS the Motor City Bowl, Central Mich should have the upper hand. And while I do think they are going to win, I don’t think they have the defense to do much to stop the Blue Raiders. This one should be kept within a touchdown, making the +9 a decent bet here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Central Michigan Chippewas

12 / 27 EMERALD BOWL
FSU Seminoles 6 – 6 (+4.5) @ UCLA Bruins 7 – 5 (-4.5)
For the Seminoles, this season can’t be over fast enough. A completely disappointing season followed by a meaningless bowl. The Bruins, however, coming off their win against USC have everything to gain from this game. With a convincing win here, they will have finished the season off super strong, which will look great come recruitment time. This is probably the best bet out of the entire bowl season, as I’d probably take them -9.0 without much hesitation.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^$UCLA Bruins
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: UCLA Bruins

12 / 28 INDEPENDENCE BOWL
Oklahoma State Cowboys 6 – 6 (-2.0) @ Alabama Crimson Tide 6 – 6 (+2.0)
Hardly the most exciting bowl on the schedule, this one matches up two 6 – 6 teams. Oklahoma State has the superior offense, Alabama has the superior defense. You should know who the smart person takes in this situation.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *^Alabama Crimson Tide
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Alabama Crimson Tide

12 / 28 TEXAS BOWL
Kansas State Wildcats 7 – 5 (+7.0) @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights 10 – 2 (-7.0)
Rutgers is simply the better team on both sides of the ball, and on top of that, can cap off a very impressive season with a strong win in this game. I say they’ll do just that.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Rutgers Scarlet Knights
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Rutgers Scarlet Knights

12 / 28 HOLIDAY BOWL
Texas A&M Aggies 9 – 3 (+5.0) @ California Golden Bears 9 – 3 (-5.0)
The Zen pick would actually be to take Cal, as they have lost their last 5 against the spread and Texas A&M has gone 6 – 0 – 1 against it over their last 7. This means that Cal is due. Quite frankly, I don’t care. There’s a reason for that discrepency… Cal simply doesn’t show up to big games. Texas A&M does. I think the Aggies have more heart, and will put a bitter end to this disappointing season for Cal.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Texas A&M Aggies
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Texas A&M Aggies

12 / 29 MUSIC CITY BOWL
Kentucky Wildcats 7 – 5 (+9.5) @ Clemson Tigers 8 – 4 (-9.5)
Interestingly enough, Clemson hardly ever covers against the spread, and Kentucky usually does a decent job keeping things interesting. Still, the numbers are just too enticing in Clemson’s favor for me to pick against them. A blowout shouldn’t be out of the question.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Clemson Tigers
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Clemson Tigers

12 / 29 SUN BOWL
Missouri Tigers 8 – 4 (+3.5) @ Oregon State Beavers 9 – 4 (-3.5)
Oregon State has not looked back, after getting off to a slow start this season, winning 7 of their last 8 including victories against USC and Hawaii. Missouri, meanwhile, jumped out to a 6 – 0 start and has gone only 2 – 4 since. I can’t bring myself to pick against the Beavers, even if the stats do match up favorably for Missouri. This is a big game team, and this bowl win would be big for them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Oregon State Beavers
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Oregon State Beavers

12 / 29 LIBERTY BOWL
Houston Cougars 9 – 3 (+6.0) @ South Carolina Gamecocks 7 – 5 (-6.0)
Of course – the other SC playing in the good ol’ Liberty Bowl. I think the fact that they’ve got Spurrier and they’ve played well lately has the spread tilted incorrectly in their favor. Houston has played some great football this season, and I think they can not only cover, but win this game outright while they are at it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *^Houston Cougars
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Houston Cougars

12 / 29 CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL
Purdue Boilermakers 8 – 5 @ Maryland Terps 8 – 4 (Pick’em)
While I am a bit of a Boilermakers fan, the fact is, their defense is downright pathetic. And while this game is pretty much a coinflip, I don’t feel safe betting on a team that can’t stop anyone. Besides, Maryland is due for a big game.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Maryland Terps
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Maryland Terps

12 / 29 INSIGHT BOWL
Minnesota Golden Gophers 6 – 6 (+6.0) @ Texas Tech Red Raiders 7 – 5 (-6.0)
Honestly, I don’t have a whole lot of INSIGHT on this one. Main thing to look for here however is the fact that Minnesota’s pass defense is terrible, and Texas Tech’s passing offense is awesome. Put the two together, and you’re probably looking at a great game in the air and a win by more than a TD.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Texas Tech Red Raiders
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Texas Tech Red Raiders

————–
Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel? SEND ME FEEDBACK!

MY TEAM’S RECORDS
OAKLAND RAIDERS: 2 – 12 – 0
USC TROJANS: 10 – 2 – 0
LOS ANGELES KINGS: 12 – 18 – 5

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DavesDime.com by Dave Consolazio