Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

And so here we are – the last week of the regular season.

Last week didn’t treat me too well, but I can’t complain after my 13 – 3 week… even after going 5 – 10 – 1 this week (yuck), thats still an 18 – 13 – 1 run.

Things will hardly get any easier this week.

The biggest problem is the damn Saturday game. If the Giants lose to the Redskins, it will mean that 4 teams in the NFC (Green Bay, Atlanta, Carolina, and St. Louis) will head into Sunday with all the added pressure and excitement of fighting for a now vacant playoff spot. If the Giants win, those four teams officially have nothing left to play for (other than Green Bay who has a minute tie-breaker chance, but, you get the idea).

So, picking the games before Saturday’s game without factoring in such a huge emotional swing could be a disaster.

And when there’s a chance for disaster, the Dime takes advantage.

Happy New Year Everyone!

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 5 – 10 – 1 (.333)
Without the spread: 7 – 9 – 0 (.438)
$$Money Picks$$: 0 – 2 – 0 (.000)
^^Zen Picks^^: 0 – 3 – 1 (.000)
**Outright Upsets**: 4 – 3 – 0 (.571)

Season
With the spread: 117 – 114 – 9 (.506)
Without the spread: 146 – 94 – 0 (.608)
$$Money Picks$$: 25 – 28 – 1 (.472)
^^Zen Picks^^: 22 – 21 – 2 (.512)
**Outright Upsets**: 33 – 28 – 0 (.541)

LAST WEEK’S RECAP OF DAVE’S BRILLIANCE AND FOOLISHNESS
(Often Foolishness)

Minnesota 7 6 – 8 (+3.5) @ Green Bay 9 6 – 8 (-3.5)
0 TD for Favre is certainly not what I had in mind.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS ^$Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS Green Bay

Kansas City 20 7 – 7 (-6.5) @ Oakland 9 2 – 12 (+6.5)
This offense is completely unbearable. It will take years to fix.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS *^^Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN Kansas City

Baltimore 31 11 – 3 (+3.5) @ Pittsburgh 7 7 – 7 (-3.5)
This is the team that the Chargers need to worry about in the playoffs.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN *Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN *Baltimore

Carolina 10 6 – 8 (+6.0) @ Atlanta 3 7 – 7 (-6.0)
Of course, count on Atlanta to drop the ball in a must-win at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS Atlanta

Chicago 26 12 – 2 (-5.0) @ Detroit 21 2 – 12 (+5.0)
This one was a dropped ball away from being right – but the bounces didn’t go my way this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: TIE *^Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS *Detroit

Indianapolis 24 11 – 3 (-9.0) @ Houston 27 4 – 10 (+9.0)
Saw this one coming with the Zen rules… but didn’t bother to accept it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS Indianapolis

New England 24 10 – 4 (+2.5) @ Jacksonville 21 8 – 6 (-2.5)
Parlayed New England and the OVER 37, and made a pretty penny on this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN *New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN *New England

New Orleans 30 9 – 5 (+3.0) @ N.Y. Giants 7 7 – 7 (-3.0)
Yet another big game for the Saints, who are starting to look like the best team in the NFC.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN *New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN *New Orleans

Tampa Bay 22 3 – 11 (+3.0) @ Cleveland 7 4 – 10 (-3.0)
I got it right, and I STILL don’t care.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN *Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN *Tampa Bay

Tennessee 30 7 – 7 (+4.5) @ Buffalo 29 7 – 7 (-4.5)
As good a game as it should have been, the Titans once again find a way to win.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS Buffalo

Washington 31 5 – 9 (+2.0) @ St. Louis 37 6 – 8 (-2.0)
Exciting OT game, sure, but still meaningless.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS *Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS *Washington

Arizona 26 4 – 10 (+4.0) @ San Francisco 20 6 – 8 (-4.0)
Biggest story here was Leinart’s injury, putting an end to his season.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS San Francisco

Cincinnati 23 8 – 6 (+3.0) @ Denver 24 8 – 6 (-3.0)
A bad snap on a routine extra point is no way to end a season…
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN *Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS *Cincinnati

San Diego 20 12 – 2 (-4.5) @ Seattle 17 8 – 6 (+4.5)
On top of having raw talent on both sides of the ball, they seem to have a certain magic about them, too. Can this team be beat?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS $San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN San Diego

Philadelphia 23 8 – 6 (+7.0) @ Dallas 7 9 – 5 (-7.0)
Dallas all of a sudden looks very beatable, and in the NFC, the Eagles just might have to be taken seriously.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS Dallas

N.Y. Jets 13 8 – 6 (+2.5) @ Miami 10 6 – 8 (-2.5)
I changed this pick 5 minutes after I sent out the Dime… and the Jets pulled it off.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS ^Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS Miami

DAMN, I’M GOOD

Nothing all that spectacular this week.

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
$ – Indicates Money Pick
^ – Indicates Zen Pick

SATURDAY
N.Y. Giants 7 – 8 (-2.0) @ Washington 5 – 10 (+2.0)
On the one hand, you’ve got a team that has failed in pretty much every big game they’ve had the opportunity to play in. On the other hand, you have a team at home with no pressure whatsoever that has the chance to officially eliminate a hated rival. Don’t get a much more clear-cut upset opportunity than this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *^Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Washington

SUNDAY
Atlanta 7 – 8 (+8.0) @ Philadelphia 9 – 6 (-8.0)
In what would make my top 3 upsets of the year (Up there with Oak over Pit and KC over SD), I’m taking the Falcons against the hottest team in the NFC in this one. Here’s why… Atlanta is going to be extremely motivated for one of two reasons; either their season will be over and they’ll want to send Phili into the playoffs with a loss, or they’re season will still be alive and they’ll want to win to get in. Atlanta should be ready to play the best game they possibly can. The Eagles have not only played three straight division rivalry games, but they’ve WON all three. They’ve got to be exhausted… plus, they have clinched a playoff spot, so even if only subconciously, they will be able to relax. With the points, Atlanta makes a really good bet… and if you feel like gambling, take them straight up.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *^Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Atlanta

Buffalo 7 – 8 (+9.5) @ Baltimore 12 – 3 (-9.5)
Buffalo has been one of the hottest teams in the league over the last few months, and it took an equally hot team in Tennessee to beat them by a single point. Even when they weren’t winning, they were always keeping games close. Baltimore is a serious Super Bowl threat and should definitely win this game, but I’ll give Buffalo the benefit of the doubt and say they keep it to a TD.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

Carolina 7 – 8 (-3.0) @ New Orleans 10 – 5 (+3.0)
Carolina could be playing for their playoff lives, and it still wouldn’t matter, contrary to what the betting public might believe. Coach Payton may choose to rest players, but remember, that is what the bye is for; this is a young team, and heading into the playoffs with a loss and having a week to dwell on it wouldn’t be nearly as healthy for the team as a win would be. They are talented enough to win this game even if a few players take some drives off.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *$New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *New Orleans

Cleveland 4 – 11 (+4.0) @ Houston 5 – 10 (-4.0)
Two teams playing for nothing but pride, Houston is not only the better team, but they also happen to be playing at home. They should be able to give the home fans a win without too much trouble at all.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston

Detroit 2 – 13 (+12.5) @ Dallas 9 – 6 (-12.5)
Dallas should easily win this game by a mile, but their defense has been flat out pathetic over the last month and change. I see this game turning into a shootout, with Dallas coming out on top. Maybe by 14, maybe by 10. I’ll say 10.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

Jacksonville 8 – 7 (+2.5) @ Kansas City 8 – 7 (-2.5)
Two teams that came close this year, but couldn’t quite make it. Especially unfortunate for Jacksonville, who lost some very winable games that they would love to have back. All the same, this stands as a pride game; and even though its in Kansas City, I think Jacksonville is the stronger team, and will be able to pull off a win.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Jacksonville

Miami 6 – 9 (+9.0) @ Indianapolis 11 – 4 (-9.0)
Pretty shocking how far the Colts have fallen off over the last month, as they went from an undefeated, unstoppable team to a team that looks to be booted out as soon as the playoffs begin. I’d love to say that they right the ship and blow the dolphins out this way, but sadly, that isn’t how I see it going down. Indy should pull off the win, but it will be by something like a field goal, not 10 points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

New England 11 – 4 (+3.0) @ Tennessee 8 – 7 (-3.0)
Apparently this is a week of upsets, because I don’t see Tennessee winning this game. They have been outstanding for two months and have done nothing but win, but the Patriots are still the Patriots, and they are two damn good to head into the playoffs with a loss on their belt. Tennessee wouldn’t be a bad pick or anything… I just see that “New England +” and I have to take it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *New England

Oakland 2 – 13 (+12.5) @ N.Y. Jets 9 – 6 (-12.5)
The game I’ve saved for last, and I still don’t know who I’m picking with the spread as I type this. As usual, everything points towards the Raiders… the Jets have everything in the world to play for and the Raiders have nothing. They should be dangerous… they should be hungry. But the hardest team to read in football is just never a safe bet, no matter how many points you get. The score to this game should be about 28 – 3 Jets. Are the Raiders going to be able to do anything to stop that? I won’t bet on it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: N.Y. Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: N.Y. Jets

Pittsburgh 7 – 8 (+6.0) @ Cincinnati 8 – 7 (-6.0)
Cinci has to be completely demoralized after last weeks loss. Pittsburgh has come on very strong in the second half of the season, beating pretty much everyone besides Baltimore over that span. Finishing the season at .500 should be plenty of motivation to play one more really strong game and upset their rival Bengals on the road.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *^Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Pittsburgh

Seattle 8 – 7 (+3.5) @ Tampa Bay 4 – 11 (-3.5)
I’m pretty blown away by the fact that a 4 – 11 team is actually favored by more than a field goal over an 8 – 7 team. This season has been a total disaster for the Seahawks, yet somehow they still find themselves heading to the playoffs. I really don’t see them dropping this game, and I’ll gladly take points while I’m at it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *$Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Seattle

St. Louis 7 – 8 (-3.0) @ Minnesota 6 – 9 (+3.0)
St. Louis may be coming off of two straight wins, but its two straight wins against the Raiders and the Redskins. Not that the Vikings are too much better… but I’ve just got a feeling that with their excellent run defense, they can neutralize the Rams and pull of a win at home to close out the season.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Minnesota

Arizona 5 – 10 (+14.0) @ San Diego 13 – 2 (-14.0)
Yes, Arizona is this bad, and yes, they are missing Matt Leinart now. But this IS the NFL, and a two touchdown spread is pretty offensive. Fair? Perhaps. But I expect the Cardinals to come out playing pretty hard, and while it may be for naught, I’ll take my chances with the points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

San Francisco 6 – 9 (+10.5) @ Denver 9 – 6 (-10.5)
Denver narrowly made it into the playoffs last week, a total relief after changing QBs so late in what was looking to be a disappointing season. Now, the Broncos get the chance at home to go into the playoffs with a bang… and I think they’ll do just that. Look for Cutler to have a huge game through the air and for the Broncos to win big.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver

Green Bay 7 – 8 (+3.0) @ Chicago 13 – 2 (-3.0)
Chicago should be resting alot of players, but they should also keep in mind that their defense has looked very vulnerable lately. Having a strong defensive game against a fairly weak offense certainly wouldn’t be a bad idea heading into the playoffs. Even with backups in, this team has enough depth to beat the Packers, and I think they’ll do so.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago

COLLEGE NICKEL: BOWL EDITION

With the spread: 8 – 9 – 0 (.000)
Without the spread: 11 – 6 (.000)
$$Money Picks$$: 3 – 1 – 0 (.000)
^^Zen Picks^^: 2 – 4 – 0 (.000)
**Outright Upsets**: 2 – 4 (.000)

After starting the bowl season off 5 – 1, I have since gone only 3 – 8, sending me into depression and a mediocre 8 – 9. Hopefully I can regain early bowl form and finish up strong… but there is one game I picked that I HOPE I’m wrong on.

12 / 30 MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL
Navy Midshipmen 9 – 3 (+6.0) @ Boston College Eagles 9 – 3 (-6.0)
Navy boasts the nations best running stats, in large part due to the fact that they don’t pass at all. While Navy has no trouble running all over weak teams, teams with any ability whatsoever on defense can handle them. Boston College should be one of those teams. If Boston College can pass as easily as I expect them to, and even just slow down the run, Navy is in for a long game.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Boston College Eagles
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Boston College Eagles

12 / 30 ALOMO BOWL
Iowa Hawkeyes 6 – 6 (+9.0) @ Texas Longhorns 9 – 3 (-9.0)
Getting Colt McCoy back is just what Texas needed to assure not being caught off guard emotionally in this one. Not only does McCoy bring talent, but he’ll bring an emotional boost as well. It would do wonders for him and the Longhorns to end this frustrating season on a blowout – and I expect they’ll do just that.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Texas Longhorns
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Texas Longhorns

12 / 30 PEACH BOWL
Virginia Tech Hokies 10 – 2 (-2.5) @ Georgia Bulldogs 8 – 4 (+2.5)
Over its 6 game winning streak to end the season, opponents scored a combined 29 points. 0, 0, 6, 6, 7, 10. Those kind of defensive numbers are mindboggling. I’d like to pick Georgia since the game is being played there, but I just don’t think they have a powerful enough offense to break the trend. Getting the Hokies at only -2.5 is a steal considering the football they’ve been playing.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Virginia Tech Hokies
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Virginia Tech Hokies

12 / 31 MPC Computers Bowl
Nevada Wolf Pack 8 – 4 (+3.5) @ Miami Florida Hurricanes 6 – 6 (-3.5)
Admittedly, I’ll probably be wrong about this game. Looking at it from a Zen POV though, Miami has been in complete shambles all year, and it has landed them a joke of a bowl. Nevada, meanwhile, has been a total surprise at 8 – 4. This game should mean more to them than it does to Miami, and even if the Hurricanes are the better team, this could mean upset.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *^Nevada Wolf Pack
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Nevada Wolf Pack

1 / 1 COTTON BOWL
Nebraska Cornhuskers 9 – 3 (+1.5) @ Auburn Tigers 10 – 2 (-1.5)
While crunching the numbers, I’m tempted to take Nebraska… they just look like the better team on paper. But when it comes to the SEC, numbers don’t tell the whole story. Auburn just wins football games… with two exceptions, of course. But the point is, at only -1.5, I have a lot of trouble picking against them. This ones a gut pick more than anything. Should be a great game.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Auburn Tigers
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Auburn Tigers

1 / 1 OUTBACK BOWL
Penn State Nittany Lions 8 – 4 (+4.0) @ Tennessee Volunteers 9 – 3 (-4.0)
Tennessee has three losses this year… Florida, LSU, and Arkansas. Penn State has four… Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Notre Dame. In other words, it takes a pretty damn good team to beat these two. So who do you pick? The numbers point at Penn State, but my mind points at Tennessee. Hmm… I’ll go against my gut instinct and count on Penn State to control the game on the ground and pull out the upset. It’s going to be tough.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Penn State Nittany Lions
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Penn State Nittany Lions

1 / 1 CAPITAL ONE BOWL
Wisconsin Badgers 11 – 1 (+2.0) @ Arkansas Razorbacks 10 – 2 (-2.0)
Its hard to gauge who is going to win a game like this when both teams are so good and neither really shows any glaring weaknesses. Wisconsin has the numbers… but against who? They haven’t faced a team with the likes of Darren McFadden. Arkansas won 10 straight games after losing to USC, and since those 10 have now lost two straight. They will be hungry for redemption, and should be able to beat the Badgers.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Arkansas Razorbacks
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arkansas Razorbacks

1 / 1 GATOR BOWL
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 9 – 3 (+11.0) @ West Virginia Mountaineers 10 – 2 (-11.0)
While the Mountaineers are definitely the better team, they do have a pretty weak passing defense… on top of that, they are going against a very good rushing defense. I’m sure West Virginia will blow them out, but I find my lack of upset picks this week unsettling… so I’ll take the 11 points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: West Virginia Mountaineers

1 / 1 ROSE BOWL
Michigan Wolverines 11 – 1 (+1.0) @ USC Trojans 10 – 2 (-1.0)
A true coin-flip between two great teams, I give the edge to Michigan for a few reasons. First of all, they want revenge from the last rose bowl. Secondly, they have a lot more to prove from this game. Michigan only lost one game – to undefeated Ohio State by 3 – and in their eyes they deserve to be in the championship. Meanwhile the Trojans are only here because they blew it against UCLA; they know as well as anyone that they SHOULD be in the National Championship game, which will make it very hard to get motivated for this one. If Michigan wins this game and Florida loses by more than 3, Michigan can make a big fuss for a playoff system and let everyone know that it should have been them. If USC wins this game… they STILL lost to two unranked teams, and this doesn’t change anything. That means to me that Michigan has a lot more to prove in this game, and should want it a little more. Lastly, Michigan’s run defense is amazing, and should be able to turn USC’s offense into a one dimensional passing attack; and then just wait until Booty blows the game. This one could go either way and of course I’ll be rooting for SC, but put a gun to my head and ask me who I think is going to win… and you won’t like the answer.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *^Michigan Wolverines
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Michigan Wolverines

1 / 1 FIESTA BOWL
Boise State Broncos 12 – 0 (+7.0) @ Oklahoma Sooners 10 – 2 (-7.0)
Looking back on it now, how huge was that blown call in Oregon? I thought losing Adrian Peterson would bring Oklahoma’s season to a crashing halt, but it did nothing of the sort… they are on an eight game winning streak and in fact, Peterson might even play in this game. Can’t find much fault in Boise State’s game; they’ve had a perfect season to this point and have been great on both sides of the ball. No saying how they’ll do against a team as strong as the Sooners, though. I’ll gamble on the Sooners getting off to a slow start and the Broncos to keep it close – but the Sooners should prevail in the end.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *^Boise State Broncos
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Oklahoma Sooners

1 / 2 ORANGE BOWL
Wake Forest Demon Deacons (+10.0) @ Louisville Cardinals 11 – 1 (-10.0)
One of the biggest surprises of the season has been the Demon Deacons, who came out of nowhere to earn a trip to the Orange Bowl with a 10 – 2 record, including some pretty impressive victories along the way. The problem? Louisville. Louisville has only failed to beat their opponent by double digits twice this season. Yes, twice, and yes that includes the 1 loss. Wake Forest may have a little bit more magic left in them, but I won’t be the one betting against Louisville.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Louisville Cardinals
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Louisville Cardinals

1 / 3 SUGAR BOWL
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+9.0) @ LSU Tigers (-9.0)
I’ll put this to you simply. LSU is just a significantly better football team than the Fighting Irish. They are superior on both sides of the ball, and while 9 points may seem like alot, look what happened to Notre Dame when they faced Michigan and USC. Couple their superiority with the fact that the game is being played IN Louisiana, and you’ve got a pretty sure thing in the Tigers.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $LSU Tigers
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LSU Tigers

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Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel? SEND ME FEEDBACK!

MY TEAM’S RECORDS
OAKLAND RAIDERS: 2 – 13 – 0
USC TROJANS: 10 – 2 – 0
LOS ANGELES KINGS: 14 – 21 – 5

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