2006 NFL Newsletter: Dave’s Dime Week 3

By , September 21, 2006

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

(I’m sending the Dime out on a THURSDAY night to give you guys two full days to make picks for the Picks Challenge section! So give it a shot, no excuses!)

THE INTRO

It’s official. The Dime’s image has changed.

Year one, the Dime was just me making pathetic picks that were always way off, and everyone just kind of laughing and continuing to read out of pity, not respect. Especially pathetic considering I only had around 10 readers, including only my closest friends and family.

Last year I got off to a slow start but eventually went on to put up fairly respectable numbers during the regular season, only to make a complete ass of myself in the playoffs, picking only 4 of the 11 games right… WITHOUT the spread.

And now, two weeks into this season, after two straight 10+ win weeks, I am doing pretty damn well.

So the Dime is now officially on ORANGE ALERT.

What does orange alert mean? Simple. When is this clown going to come crashing back down to earth?

Well, call me a clown all you want (wait, I called myself a clown…), but this clown made $170 betting sports this weekend (legally of course! Thank goodness for offshore betting), and will gladly ride this hot streak as long as it lasts.

And, if you keep reading, I’ll keep writing/sharing.

And by reading, of course, I simply mean not asking me to take you off the list.

P.S. MORE PEOPLE NEED TO SEND IN THEIR PICKS THIS WEEK! PLAY! ITS FUN!

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 10 – 6 – 0 (.625)
Without the spread: 11 – 5 – 0 (.688)
$$Money Picks$$: 3 – 1 – 0 (.750)
^^Zen Picks^^: 2 – 1 – 0 (.666)
**Outright Upsets**: 2 – 2 – 0 (.500)

Season
With the spread: 21 – 11 – 0 (.656)
Without the spread: 23 – 9 – 0 (.719)
$$Money Picks$$: 4 – 2 – 0 (.666)
^^Zen Picks^^: 3 – 1 – 0 (.750)
**Outright Upsets**: 5 – 2 – 0 (.714)

LAST WEEK’S RECAP OF DAVE’S BRILLIANCE AND FOOLISHNESS
(Usually Brilliance!)

Buffalo 16 0 – 1 (+6.5) @ Miami 6 0 – 1 (-6.5)
“The one game on the schedule that I’m not comfortable picking.” – Shocker, then, that I lost huh? Credit to Buffalo though, they aren’t looking bad.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS Miami

Carolina 13 0 – 1 @ Minnesota 16 1 – 0 (Pick’em)
A pick’em indeed, as it took OT to decide, but Minnesota pulled it off in exciting fashion, giving me my only money pick loss of the week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS $Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS Carolina

Cleveland 17 0 – 1 (+10.5) @ Cincinnati 34 1 – 0 (-10.5)
Carson and the Bengals just make me happy.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN Cincinnati

Detroit 7 0 – 1 (+8.5) @ Chicago 34 1 – 0 (-8.5)
Stupid Detroit, when will you ever be good?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS *Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN Chicago

Houston 24 0 – 1 (+13.5) @ Indianapolis 43 1 – 0 (-13.5)
“Houston is not in league with this team, and I expect Peyton to put up some disgusting numbers” – 400 yards 3 TDs disgusting enough for you?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN $Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN Indianapolis

New Orleans 34 1 – 0 (-2.0) @ Green Bay 27 0 – 1 (+2.0)
“New Orleans to start the season 2 – 0? I find it difficult to believe that I’m picking that, but Green Bay impresses me about as much as cardboard does. Scratch that… cardboard comes in handy from time to time.” – I’m good.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN New Orleans

N.Y. Giants 30 0 – 1 (+3.0) @ Philadelphia 24 1 – 0 (-3.0)
“Perfect example of the public swinging a line here. NYG loses to one of the best teams in the AFC, Phili beats one of the worst teams in the AFC, and now they are the favorite. Silly public, this win is for Giants.” – And what a win it was, come from behind OT thriller.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN *N.Y. Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN *N.Y. Giants

Tampa Bay 3 0 – 1 (+5.5) @ Atlanta 14 1 – 0 (-5.5)
Either Atlanta is for real, or Tampa Bay really sucks. Gotta be a combo of both, and a rare zen swing and miss.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS ^*Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS ^*Tampa Bay

Arizona 10 1 – 0 (+7.0) @ Seattle 21 1 – 0 (-7.0)
“I want to money pick this one, but Seattle let me down last time, so they are “grounded”. Still, at home, this team always plays very well… and I think they will indeed cover in this one.” – And indeed they do.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN Seattle

St. Louis 13 1 – 0 (-3.0) @ San Francisco 20 0 – 1 (+3.0)
“St. Louis always overperforms one week and tanks the next, so I almost never money pick them.” – Can’t say I didn’t see this coming, damn choke artists.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS St. Louis

New England 24 1 – 0 (-6.0) @ N.Y. Jets 17 1 – 0 (+6.0)
Whether you lose by 1 point or 20 with the spread, Vegas keeps your money either way.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS *N.Y. Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS *N.Y. Jets

Tennessee 7 0 – 1 (+11.5) @ San Diego 40 1 – 0 (-11.5)
So now Tennessee traded away Volek for nothing and is upset with how bad Collins is (shocker) and is considering starting Vince Young. Hmm. He was supposed to be a 2 – 3 year project, but now they’re willing to throw him into the fire? And potentially screw up his development, which was already questionable? Looks like just screwing up the present isn’t enough for the Titans – they’ve gotta mess up their future, too.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN $San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN San Diego

Washington 10 0 – 1 (+6.5) @ Dallas 27 0 – 1 (-6.5)
Washington’s offense looks really, really bad.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN Dallas

DAMN, I’M GOOD

Oakland 6 0 – 1 (+12.5) @ Baltimore 28 1 – 0 (-12.5)
Remember last year when I asked you to bet your house on the Colts to cover against Cleveland, and they didnt? Of course you do… it put you out on the street. Well, you’ve had one year to get your life back together. Work a few double shifts, get a nice little apartment somewhere. And more power to you. But now is your chance to get that house back.

Sell your apartment (or for those of you that didn’t lose your house last year, sell the house). You won’t be needing it anymore, you’re going to be moving into someplace much nicer. Now take the money you make on your home, and put every cent of it on the Baltimore Ravens. Yes, even at -12.5.

The ZEN book would actually say that due to the fact that Oakland lost big last week and Baltimore won big, this would be a great opportunity to bet Oakland, as they will come out passionate, and Baltimore will come out over confident. Usually I agree with the zen philosophy, but this is different. If all the stars align, the Oakland offense clicks perfectly and the Ravens play the worst game of their life… the final score will be 31 – 10 Baltimore.

Will I be wearing my Moss jersey? Yes. Will I root passionately for my Raiders? Yes. Will I make $75 when they lose by 28? That, too, is also a yes.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $$$$Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore
– Frame this pick, and put it up over the fireplace of your new home. And invite me to the house warming party please. A few white russians should suffice.

Kansas City 6 0 – 1 (+11.0) @ Denver 9 0 – 1 (-11.0)
ZEN time. Denver is the obvious favorite here, with Kansas City losing Trent Green. Herm Edwards is an awesome coach though, a great motivator, and I feel like he can turn this negative into a positive, and get all of the other players to step up in Green’s absence. As for Denver, they’ve got to be thinking in the back of their minds that they’ve got an easy game on their hands. I’m too scared to take them straight up, but I definitely think it’ll be close.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver
– When you’re right, your right. When you’re a genious, well, you’re me I guess.

Pittsburgh 0 1 – 0 (-2.5) @ Jacksonville 9 1 – 0 (+2.5)
Maybe I’m too high on Jacksonville, but ZEN backs me up a little bit here. It’s the second straight game for Jacksonville at home, meaning they haven’t had to travel, they’ve trained in their own facilities, and they are very comfortable. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, played last Thursday, and will have had 10 days in between games. Middle of the season, players would love that kind of break, but I think this early, it will make some players rusty. Don’t mean to underestimate Pittsburgh or overestimate the Jaguars, but this one points to Jacksonville for me.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Jacksonville
– This one really made me look good… figuratively speaking of course.

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
$ – Indicates Money Pick
^ – Indicates Zen Pick

SUNDAY
Carolina 0 – 2 (-3.0) @ Tampa Bay 0 – 2 (+3.0)
One of these teams is about ready to explode this week, and unfortunately for the Buccaneers, I think its going to be the Panthers. I’m expecting a blowout in one direction or the other, and I think Tampa will sadly continue its pitiful ways and drop another one. Can they score a TD?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina

Chicago 2 – 0 (-3.5) @ Minnesota 2 – 0 (+3.5)
Wonderful start to the season, Minnesota. Keeps you from being money picked against this week. Beat this powerhouse Chicago defense with Brad Johnson and Chester Taylor, and I’ll start really respecting you guys as a threat.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago

Cincinnati 2 – 0 (+1.5) @ Pittsburgh 1 – 1 (-1.5)
Think last year’s playoff loss that featured Carson Palmer’s then-thought-to-be potentially career ending injury isn’t fresh on the Bengals’ minds? Think again. I don’t like that the game is in Pitts, nor do I like that its -1.5 Pitts, as I feel it should be Cinci as the favorite, and discrepencies usually mean bad things for the bettor. But you know what? Revenge conquers all, and gives me a very rare trifecta pick this week (trifecta; money pick, zen pick, and upset pick).
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*$Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Cincinnati

Green Bay 0 – 2 (+6.5) @ Detroit 0 – 2 (-6.5)
This is just that game on the schedule that no matter who I pick, I’m going to lose. Doesn’t matter who’s playing, who’s injured, etc. This is just “that game”. Gut feeling says Green Bay… so look for a Detroit 21 – 10 victory on Sunday.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Green Bay

Jacksonville 2 – 0 (+7.0) @ Indianapolis 2 – 0 (-7.0)
I think Indianapolis will win this game and cover, but the Zen book has been very good to me. It says that the public often loves offensive teams too much, and snubs defensive teams. And that is usually true, and leads to larger-than-they-should-be spreads. So, this one is for you, Zen Book… I’ll take the points. But I’m still picking Indy.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

N.Y. Jets 1 – 1 (+5.5) @ Buffalo 1 – 1 (-5.5)
Another game that I’m really not comfortable with. But, as long as the Jets have absolutely no running game, and the Bills are playing great football (who knew that was possible?), I’ll give them the nod in this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Buffalo

Tennessee 0 – 2 (+11.0) @ Miami 0 – 2 (-11.0)
Popular playoff pick Miami finds itself 0 – 2, and Tennessee at home is just what the doctor ordered. to get that first win. I really don’t like giving up 11 points when the favorite hasn’t even won a game yet… but the idea of Tennessee playing a competitive football game is laughable.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Miami

Washington 0 – 2 (-4.0) @ Houston 0 – 2 (+4.0)
“Why are there so many hard games on the schedule this week? I’ve sat and watched both of Washington’s games, and I honestly do not feel safe picking them, even against the lowly Texans. While I’m sure they’ll prove me wrong, I’ll still take the Texans in this one.” That was my pick, until I heard that Clinton Portis would be back. With him in, I’ll make the “smart” move here, and take the Redskins.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Washington

Baltimore 2 – 0 (-6.5) @ Cleveland 0 – 2 (+6.5)
Finally! An easy one! Despite offensive troubles, Baltimore is the real deal ladies and gentleman. Clevland will be immensely lucky to score a TD, and even luckier to keep this game’s loss margin in the single digits. I don’t think they will, and I’ll gladly bet Baltimore heavy again this weekend.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

N.Y. Giants 1 – 1 (+3.5) @ Seattle 2 – 0 (-3.5)
Seattle at home is dangerous. Seattle at home for two straight weeks? Very, very dangerous. I won’t money pick against the pesky Giants, but I’ll certainly feel confident with this pick.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle

Philadelphia 1 – 1 (-6.0) @ San Francisco 1 – 1 (+6.0)
After an absolute embarassment of a game last week, Philadelphia needs to respond with a big game this week. Despite San Fran’s impressive performance last week, I don’t think they are any match for the Eagles, who will cover the TD spread.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philidelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philidelphia

St. Louis 1 – 1 (+4.5) @ Arizona 1 – 1 (-4.5)
Another game I’m going to lose no matter how much I crunch the numbers. I’ll just take the team I like better in Arizona… which will probably cost them this game.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona

Denver 1 – 1 (+7.0) @ New England 2 – 0 (-7.0)
Denver has been playing absolutely pathetically, and New England has been pretty sloppy themselves, but they remain unscathed. Something tells me it all starts to click for Denver this week, and they pull off the stunning upset in New England. Stupid, I know, but I’m so cocky these days that I’ll roll with it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Denver

MONDAY

Atlanta 2 – 0 (-4.0) @ New Orleans 2 – 0 (+4.0)
I love the new look New Orleans team, but they aren’t quite there yet. Atlanta is – despite my constantly picking against them. Like him or not, Vick does win games, and they will win this one by a TD or more.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

PICKS CHALLENGE

Think you’ve got what it takes to out pick me? Now is your chance to show it!

Standings
Dave – 1
Readers – 0

Last Week
Players: 10

With an overall winning percentage of .575, the combined public fell to the Dime this week, which had a winning percentage of .625.

3 players beat me outright, including this week’s pick king Ross (12 – 4), as well as the also impressive “Luddy” and “The Mojo” racking up 11 wins apiece.

Following in his older brother’s footsteps, the youngest Consolazio brother Brian tied me with a 10 – 6 record.

Everyone else that played went 8 – 8 or 9 – 7 besides Park, who set the new Dime record for futility by going 6 – 10 with the spread.

We’ll see if this week’s winners can repeat next week, if losers can bounce back, and if any new comers can find their way into the mix NEXT WEEK on the Picks Challenge.

Rules
The rules are very simple. You email me (or facebook message me, for my facebook readers) your picks with the spread (use the spreads I’ve listed below) every week. You can research them, flip a coin, do whatever you like.

In said email, also give me a nickname you’d like to go by… or, just your first name, if your creative juices aren’t flowing.

I will also keep track of all of your year to date totals. The top few people with the best winning percentage will get some kind of prize (by prize I mean something free and worthless, but bragging rights are good for something aren’t they?). YOU DON’T HAVE TO PLAY EVERY WEEK! I’d like you to, but if you miss a week or didn’t play last week, it’s okay to start now!

This section will only work if alot of you participate… it’s just for fun! Don’t be afraid! Send in your picks! Having a section dedicated to two readers wouldn’t make any sense. 10, 20, 30 of you, all of a sudden we have ourselves a fun little thing going here.

So can you beat the Dime? Give it a try!

Carolina 0 – 2 (-3.0) @ Tampa Bay 0 – 2 (+3.0)
Chicago 2 – 0 (-3.5) @ Minnesota 2 – 0 (+3.5)
Cincinnati 2 – 0 (+1.5) @ Pittsburgh 1 – 1 (-1.5)
Green Bay 0 – 2 (+6.5) @ Detroit 0 – 2 (-6.5)
Jacksonville 2 – 0 (+7.0) @ Indianapolis 2 – 0 (-7.0)
N.Y. Jets 1 – 1 (+5.5) @ Buffalo 1 – 1 (-5.5)
Tennessee 0 – 2 (+11.0) @ Miami 0 – 2 (-11.0)
Washington 0 – 2 (-4.0) @ Houston 0 – 2 (+4.0)
Baltimore 2 – 0 (-6.5) @ Cleveland 0 – 2 (+6.5)
N.Y. Giants 1 – 1 (+3.5) @ Seattle 2 – 0 (-3.5)
Philadelphia 1 – 1 (-6.0) @ San Francisco 1 – 1 (+6.0)
St. Louis 1 – 1 (+4.5) @ Arizona 1 – 1 (-4.5)
Denver 1 – 1 (+7.0) @ New England 2 – 0 (-7.0)
Atlanta 2 – 0 (-3.5) @ New Orleans 2 – 0 (+3.5)

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 3 – 2 – 0 (.600)

1 . Wisconson Badgers (+14.0) @ Michigan Wolverines (-14.0)
Any team that can go INTO Notre Dame and put on a show like this team did is a safe bet at home on my watch, even if it is against a tough Wisconsin team.

2. Louisville Cardinals (-14.0) @ Kansas State Wildcats (+14.0)
Louisville is damn tough, and they’ve been pounding everyone. Unfortunately for the Wildcats, I don’t think they’ll be an exception.

3. Kentucky Wildcats (+24.0) @ Florida Gators (-24.0)
Apparently it’s Wildcat hunting season this week. Florida at home should be able to put the hurt on the Kentucky variety of this soon-to-be endangered species.

4. Kent State Golden Flashes (+7.0) @ Bowling Green Falcons (-7.0)
Not a flashy big name game here, simply a game that the Falcons are going to win by more than a TD and make us a couple of bucks.

5. Washington State Cougars (-10.0) @ Stanford Cardinal (+10.0)
Again, not exactly national championship talk here. Despite the fact that Stanford has covered 9 of the last 11 times against Wasu (if you are into trends, take Stanford), I still think this will be a Washington State blowout.

HONORABLE MENTION (1 – 1 – 0):
Marshall Thundering Herd (+22.0) @ Tennessee Volunteers (-22.0)
Penn State Nittany Lions (+17.0) @ Ohio State Buckeyes (-17.0)
Colorado Buffaloes (+26.5) @ Georgia Bulldogs (-26.5)
Southern California Trojans (-21.0) @ Arizona Wildcats (+21.0)

Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel? SEND ME FEEDBACK!

MY TEAM’S RECORDS
OAKLAND RAIDERS: 0 – 2 – 0
USC TROJANS: 2 – 0 – 0
LOS ANGELES KINGS: 0 – 0 – 0 – 0

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DavesDime.com by Dave Consolazio