Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Don’t look now; but I actually did pretty damn good last week.

While I was deemed the worst analyst in pro football (just like my Raiders are deemed the worst team in pro football), for one special week, we both came out on top.

I wouldn’t put too much on it happening again (the both of us, that is).

Now, if I can just go 8 – 6 this week, that’ll get me back to .500 with the spread this season…

So, what am I waiting for? With dressing up and partying and trick or treating to do, why are we babbling in the intro? Lets pick ’em!

THE RECORD

Last Week
Wth the spread: 8 – 4 – 1 (.666)
Without the spread: 6 – 7 – 0 (.462)
$$Money Picks$$: 3 – 0 – 0 (1.000)
^^Zen Picks^^: 1 – 0 – 0 (1.000)
**Outright Upsets**: 2 – 1 – 0 (.666)

Season
With the spread: 46 – 48 – 6 (.489)
Without the spread: 65 – 35 – 0 (.650)
$$Money Picks$$: 10 – 10 – 1 (.500)
^^Zen Picks^^: 8 – 6 – 1 (.571)
**Outright Upsets**: 13 – 12 – 0 (.520)

LAST WEEK’S RECAP OF DAVE’S BRILLIANCE AND FOOLISHNESS
(Often Foolishness)

Carolina 14 4 – 2 (+3.0) @ Cincinnati 17 3 – 2 (-3.0)
Good win for the Bengals, who needed this one to right the ship.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: TIE *Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS *Carolina

Detroit 24 1 – 5 (+3.5) @ N.Y. Jets 31 3 – 3 (-3.5)
Impressive season for the Jets so far, who were supposed to be a bottom feeder.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN N.Y. Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN N.Y. Jets

Green Bay 34 1 – 4 (+5.5) @ Miami 24 1 – 5 (-5.5)
I just can’t get over how bad Miami is, I really can’t.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN *Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN *Green Bay

Jacksonville 7 3 – 2 (-9.5) @ Houston 27 1 – 4 (+9.5)
A couple of key injuries lead to a big time letdown for Jacksonville here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN *Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS Jacksonville

New England 28 4 – 1 (-5.5) @ Buffalo 6 2 – 4 (+5.5)
Regardless of who’s on the team, New England always seems to win, win, and win some more.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN $New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN New England

Philadelphia 21 4 – 2 (-5.5) @ Tampa Bay 23 1 – 4 (+5.5)
Should have gone with my gut on this one… two straight heartbreakers for Phili.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS Philadelphia

Pittsburgh 38 2 – 3 (-2.5) @ Atlanta 41 3 – 2 (+2.5)
So much for a defensive struggle. No shocker that the first team to get the ball in OT wins, huh?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS Pittsburgh

Denver 17 4 – 1 (-4.5) @ Cleveland 7 1 – 4 (+4.5)
Don’t need an offense when you’ve got a defense that has only given up 2 TDs this season, both in the 4th quarter with comfortable 17 point leads.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN $Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN Denver

Arizona 9 1 – 5 (-3.0) @ Oakland 22 0 – 5 (+3.0)
Go Raiders?!?! Great game for Moss and Walter, embarassment for the young Cards.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS Arizona

Minnesota 31 3 – 2 (+6.5) @ Seattle 13 4 – 1 (-6.5)
Injuries continue to plague Seattle, and the Vikings take advantage of it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN *Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS Seattle

N.Y. Giants 36 3 – 2 (+3.0) @ Dallas 22 3 – 2 (-3.0)
Dallas’s 3 wins have come against Houston, Tennessee, and Washington. Hate to break it to you Cowboys fans, but your team really isn’t all that great.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

DAMN, I’M GOOD

San Diego 27 4 – 1 (-5.0) @ Kansas City 30 2 – 3 (+5.0)
The book of Zen was written for this game. Zen Rule 1) One team is coming off a huge blowout (KC) while the other did the blowing out (SD), and you should bet the team that was blown out. Rule 2) Public. Everyone and their mother has San Diego as an easy pick. Rule 3) Line… why is it only 5? Its taunting us into betting the seemingly OBVIOUS San Diego. This game is so damn ZEN-FILLED that not only am I taking KC to cover, but I’ll take them outright.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^^*Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Kansas City
– Sure the Zen book made the pick, but I was the one that had the guts to take it.

Washington 22 2 – 4 (+8.5) @ Indianapolis 36 5 – 0 (-8.5)
Despite the occassional flash of brilliance, Washington isn’t very good. Indy will take this one quite convincingly for their home crowd.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
– Giving up 8.5 was a tough but profitible decision for me.

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
$ – Indicates Money Pick
^ – Indicates Zen Pick

Interesting… all but 2 favorites are at home this week.

SUNDAY

Arizona 1 – 6 (+4.0) @ Green Bay 2 – 4 (-4.0)
One of many games this week that I’m simply taking the favorite in. Arizona is just too damn unreliable to count on for anything, and while the Packers are nothing special, they should be able to handle the reeling Cardinals in Lambeau.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

Atlanta 4 – 2 (+4.0) @ Cincinnati 4 – 2 (-4.0)
Atlantas not bad, but I’m going to take my chances and say that Cincinnati has refound its groove, and can win this one by at least a TD. Besides, Atlanta has to be all scored-out after last week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati

Baltimore 4 – 2 (+2.0) @ New Orleans 5 – 1 (-2.0)
Initially I was thinking Baltimore upset, but this team really doesn’t have an offense. And Brees knows what he’s doing – he’ll be able to handle the intense pass rush. Gotta stick with the surprise of the year and take the Saints.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

Houston 2 – 4 (+3.0) @ Tennessee 1 – 5 (-3.0)
Tennessee has been playing some good football on the road, and now they are coming home to a crowd who watched them get spanked by the Cowboys 45 – 14 last time they played in Tenn. Look for them to be completely amped up and take down the Texans at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^$Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee

Jacksonville 3 – 3 (+7.0) @ Philadelphia 4 – 3 (-7.0)
Much like the Titans, home field plays huge advantage here. Phili is coming off of two straight heartbreaking losses (both last second FGs) on the road, and now with the home crowd behind them, Leftwich or not, Phili wins this one convincingly.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

Seattle 4 – 2 (+6.0) @ Kansas City 3 – 3 (-6.0)
If this game were in Seattle, I’d consider taking the Seahawks with the points. As is, I’ve got to assume that the Chiefs at home will take care of business against the injured Seahawks.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Kansas City

San Francisco 2 – 4 (+15.5) @ Chicago 6 – 0 (-15.5)
15.5 makes it look like a popular upset pick, huh? Absolutely not. After the hideous display Chicago put on against Arizona, look for them to right the ship and absolutely manhandle the far inferior 49ers in this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago

Tampa Bay 2 – 4 (+9.0) @ N.Y. Giants 4 – 2 (-9.0)
Okay, so the Giants are for real. But this Tampa team plays teams really tough, and 9 points is a pretty good looking spread. I’ll give Gruden’s Gang the benefit of the doubt and take them with the points; but the G-men should get the win on home turf.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: N.Y. Giants

St. Louis 4 – 2 (+9.5) @ San Diego 4 – 2 (-9.5)
Don’t like this game one bit. Either San Diego is fired up after the embarassing loss last week and dominates the Rams, or all of this adversity catches up to them and they are ripe for another upset. I’ll go with the first option, although not with a shred of confidence.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

Indianapolis 6 – 0 (+3.0) @ Denver 5 – 1 (-3.0)
Ok, game of the week deserves a bit of analysis. Defense always beats a good offense, says the theory. Also, it is no secret that Denver is amazing at home. Plus, they’ve only given up 2 TDs this year. This all adds up to make Denver the easy pick.

But not so fast. Who has Denver shut down this year? Kansas City (Ranked 20th in points per game), New England (10th), Baltimore (22nd), Oakland (32nd) and Cleveland (26th). And when they beat New England, it was early in the season before they found their rhythm. Am I taking anything away from the Broncos? Of course not… but the Colts are the 4th best offense in the league.

And where do the Broncos rank in offense? …31st.

Indy is not going to come into Denver and score 35 points. But somewhere in the realm of 17 – 21 is perfectly feasable. And I have seen nothing in Denver’s offense to lead me to beleave they can score that many points. I’ll take Indy in a low scoring, playoff-implication-laden thriller.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Indianapolis

N.Y. Jets 4 – 3 (+2.5) @ Cleveland 1 – 5 (-2.5)
You know its a Zen pick when a 1 – 5 team is favored over a 4 – 3 team. Basically, all of the Jets wins come against bad teams, and all of the Browns losses come against good teams. While I like the Jets alot more, Cleveland is a tough place to play, and as Zen picks often do, this one will just work itself out.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cleveland

Pittsburgh 2 – 4 (-9.0) @ Oakland 1 – 5 (+9.0)
I’m going to try and outdo myself here. Last week I picked the upset of the year in KC over SD. I’m looking to put that one to shame.

The theory? Pittsburgh is spent after not only losing a close game, but putting it all on the table in the last game. Furthermore, a daunting task awaits them next week when they have to play the super tough Denver Broncos. No matter how bad they want this game, they’ve gotta be thinking in the back of their heads “whatever… its the Raiders”

As for the Raiders? They are coming off a win, feeling super confident, the fans will be back into it, extremely pumped up. Look for them to catch Pittsburgh off guard, especially on defense, and somehow, someway, pull off the upset of the year.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Oakland

Dallas 3 – 3 (+5.5) @ Carolina 4 – 3 (-5.5)
As I stated above, Dallas is terribly overrated. Expect a lot of crying from TO when the Panthers put on a good old fashion whooping at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina

MONDAY

New England 5 – 1 (-2.0) @ Minnesota 4 – 2 (+2.0)
Sorry… as much as I’m digging the way Minnesotas been playing lately, and as good as they may be at home, any time I can get the Patriots at minus less then a field goal, I’m probably going to take it. This is one of those times.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 16 – 12 – 2 (.571)

Forget it, I can’t go only a nickel this week. There are too many great games to choose from! I’ve gotta give you a nice even dime on college picks this week!

1. Minnesota Golden Gophers (+27.0) @ Ohio State Buckeyes (-27.0)
I made the mistake of betting against OSU last week. Here’s the deal; this is the best team in college football. They don’t give up any points, and they score plenty of them. They are a safe bet, week in and week out.

2. Oklahoma Sooners (+1.5) @ Missouri Tigers (-1.5)
Ok, so now Oklahoma doesn’t have Bomar OR Peterson, and I’m supposed to take them against the 7 – 1 Tigers IN Missouri? You’re crazy Vegas.

3. BYU Cougars (-7.5) @ Air Force Falcons (+7.5)
One of many unflashy picks this week, but if you put money on it and win, its flashy enough. BYU is a better team than Air Force and can easily beat them by double digits.

4. UL Monroe Indians (+36.5) @ Arkansas Razorbacks (-36.5)
I love the Razorbacks, and am on their bandwagon more than anyone. But this team has to head in to South Carolina for a tough game against the Gamecocks next week, and there is no way they can be 100% focused on the lowly Indians. They will win handily, but by less then 5 TDs.

5. Vanderbilt Commodores (-9.5) @ Duke Blue Devils (+9.5)
Another unflashy one, but Duke is complete garbage, and while Vandy won’t be mistaken for a powerhouse, a double digit victory should not be a problem.

6. Bowling Green Falcons (-19.0) @ Temple Owls (+19.0)
If anyone’s worse than the Stanford Cardinal, its the Temple Owls. Very rare to see this team at +anything under 35. I’ll take my chances on Bowling Green to cover against this bottom feeder.

7. Texas Longhorns (-12.0) @ Texas Tech Red Raiders (+12.0)
Texas Tech isn’t necessarily going to be a pushover, but I don’t think they will have any answer for Texas’s high powered offense. Two TDs should be a fair margin of victory.

8. Nebraska Cornhuskers (-6.0) @ Oklahoma State Cowboys (+6.0)
Not to take anything away from the Cowboys, but this is another silly spread in my opinion. Nebraska matches up well against this team and should be fine with giving up only two FGs.

9. Miami Florida Hurricanes (+5.0) @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-5.0)
By the numbers I crunched, the Hurricanes should be the favorite. Now I’m aware that they are a bunch of sleazeballs, but I’ll save the morals for someone else and make money on the outright upset in this one.

10. Northwestern Wildcats (+32.5) @ Michigan Wolverines (-32.5)
Remember how Ohio State is the best team in college football? Sorry Trojan fans, Michigan is the 2nd best. And while 32.5 looks a little gross, a 49 – 3 type of score is no where close to out of the question.

HONORABLE MENTION (8 – 9 – 0):

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-13.0) @ Navy Midshipmen (+13.0)

Syracuse Orangemen (+6.5) @ Cincinnati Bearcats (-6.5)

Penn State Nittany Lions (-3.0) @ Purdue Boilermakers (+3.0)

USC Trojans (-11.5) @ Oregon State Beavers (+11.5)
(I’m actually buying 2 points to make this a -9.5 for the Trojans)

YOU SAID IT!

Jaguar Park:

“Park’s game of the week is New England (4-1) @ Buffalo (2-4). Make it the upset pick of the week while you’re at it too. The Patriots struggles will continue and the only thing working for them is the dynamic duo of Laurence Maroney and Corey Dillon. Tom Brady is arguably the best QB in the game according to some of the so called experts, yet his QB rating is a mere 2 points better than his counterpart J.P Losman, who is arguably the worst QB in the league.” (Struggles? They were 4 – 1! To Park’s defense he did pick the Giants on Monday night. New England cruises, 28 – 6. Brady had 2 TD 0 INT, Losman 0 TD 1 INT)

“Good picks or not, the Dime is a great read.” (Thank you my friend)

Predictions – “Jacksonille Jaguars Superbowl Champs” and “Orlando Magic make the playoffs”

Jonathan Roberts:

“No wonder your season is going down the tubes, do you even watch the games anymore? KC over SD, fuck zen, fuck the “upset”. if that happens, ill give you 10 bucks myself, cause there is no way you actually bet that pick. and if you do…ouch.” (Final Score; Kansas City 30 – San Diego 27)

Don’t be shy. Write in with whatever you’ve got, and get your spot on here!
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Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel? SEND ME FEEDBACK!

MY TEAM’S RECORDS
OAKLAND RAIDERS: 1 – 5 – 0
USC TROJANS: 6 – 0 – 0
LOS ANGELES KINGS: 3 – 6 – 2

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