Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

So I’ve been told that the Dime is more fun to read when I am doing poorly. That the Dime just isn’t as fun when I am gloating instead of whining.

Ahem.

Neener neener neener, I’m the best, neener. Neener. Neener.

Ok, so I’m not the BEST per se, but 17 – 9 – 1 with the spread over two weeks ain’t too bad. Furthermore, my Raiders upset made for the 2nd week in a row where I pulled off an outstanding upset pick.

So you don’t like me bragging and prefer to see me do poorly? Stick around. I’m sure things will be back in the gutter in a week or two. But for now, lets pick some winners.

THE RECORD

Last Week
Wth the spread: 9 – 5 – 0 (.643)
Without the spread: 10 – 4 – 0 (.714)
$$Money Picks$$: 2 – 1 – 0 (.666)
^^Zen Picks^^: 3 – 1 – 0 (.750)
**Outright Upsets**: 2 – 0 – 0 (1.000)

Season
With the spread: 55 – 53 – 6 (.509)
Without the spread: 75 – 39 – 0 (.658)
$$Money Picks$$: 12 – 11 – 1 (.522)
^^Zen Picks^^: 11 – 7 – 1 (.611)
**Outright Upsets**: 15 – 12 – 0 (.556)

LAST WEEK’S RECAP OF DAVE’S BRILLIANCE AND FOOLISHNESS
(Often Foolishness)

Arizona 14 1 – 6 (+4.0) @ Green Bay 31 2 – 4 (-4.0)
Green Bay is bad, but Arizona is much, much worse.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN Green Bay

Atlanta 29 4 – 2 (+4.0) @ Cincinnati 27 4 – 2 (-4.0)
Atlanta continues to make the arguement that they should indeed be taken seriously.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS Cincinnati

Baltimore 35 4 – 2 (+2.0) @ New Orleans 22 5 – 1 (-2.0)
When Baltimore actually scores points, they are virtually impossible to beat.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS New Orleans

Jacksonville 13 3 – 3 (+7.0) @ Philadelphia 6 4 – 3 (-7.0)
What the hell is wrong with Phili? If they couldn’t get amped for this game, I’d just toss in the towel now.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS ^Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS Philadelphia

Seattle 28 4 – 2 (+6.0) @ Kansas City 35 3 – 3 (-6.0)
Credit KC for keeping the season alive without Trent Green manning the ship.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN Kansas City

San Francisco 10 2 – 4 (+15.5) @ Chicago 41 6 – 0 (-15.5)
Told you this wouldn’t be close.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN $Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN Chicago

Tampa Bay 3 2 – 4 (+9.0) @ N.Y. Giants 17 4 – 2 (-9.0)
Damn, I get it. The Giants are pretty good.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS *Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN N.Y. Giants

St. Louis 24 4 – 2 (+9.5) @ San Diego 38 4 – 2 (-9.5)
Don’t like this game one bit. Either San Diego is fired up after the embarassing loss last week and dominates the Rams, or all of this adversity catches up to them and they are ripe for another upset. I’ll go with the first option, although not with a shred of confidence.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN San Diego

N.Y. Jets 13 4 – 3 (+2.5) @ Cleveland 20 1 – 5 (-2.5)
Oh Zen, what would I do without you?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN ^Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN Cleveland

Dallas 35 3 – 3 (+5.5) @ Carolina 14 4 – 3 (-5.5)
I’ll be honest with you, I’m completely confused.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS $Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS Carolina

New England 31 5 – 1 (-2.0) @ Minnesota 7 4 – 2 (+2.0)
Will New England ever have a losing season ever again?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

DAMN, I’M GOOD

Houston 22 2 – 4 (+3.0) @ Tennessee 28 1 – 5 (-3.0)
Tennessee has been playing some good football on the road, and now they are coming home to a crowd who watched them get spanked by the Cowboys 45 – 14 last time they played in Tenn. Look for them to be completely amped up and take down the Texans at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^$Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee
Not bad to money pick a 1-win team and get it right.

Indianapolis 34 6 – 0 (+3.0) @ Denver 31 5 – 1 (-3.0)
Ok, game of the week deserves a bit of analysis. Defense always beats a good offense, says the theory. Also, it is no secret that Denver is amazing at home. Plus, they’ve only given up 2 TDs this year. This all adds up to make Denver the easy pick.

But not so fast. Who has Denver shut down this year? Kansas City (Ranked 20th in points per game), New England (10th), Baltimore (22nd), Oakland (32nd) and Cleveland (26th). And when they beat New England, it was early in the season before they found their rhythm. Am I taking anything away from the Broncos? Of course not… but the Colts are the 4th best offense in the league.

And where do the Broncos rank in offense? …31st.

Indy is not going to come into Denver and score 35 points. But somewhere in the realm of 17 – 21 is perfectly feasable. And I have seen nothing in Denver’s offense to lead me to beleave they can score that many points. I’ll take Indy in a low scoring, playoff-implication-laden thriller.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Indianapolis
Ok, so it WAS an offensive showdown. However you slice it, a wins a win.

Pittsburgh 13 2 – 4 (-9.0) @ Oakland 20 1 – 5 (+9.0)
I’m going to try and outdo myself here. Last week I picked the upset of the year in KC over SD. I’m looking to put that one to shame.

The theory? Pittsburgh is spent after not only losing a close game, but putting it all on the table in the last game. Furthermore, a daunting task awaits them next week when they have to play the super tough Denver Broncos. No matter how bad they want this game, they’ve gotta be thinking in the back of their heads “whatever… its the Raiders”

As for the Raiders? They are coming off a win, feeling super confident, the fans will be back into it, extremely pumped up. Look for them to catch Pittsburgh off guard, especially on defense, and somehow, someway, pull off the upset of the year.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Oakland
Upset of the year right here!

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
$ – Indicates Money Pick
^ – Indicates Zen Pick

SUNDAY

Atlanta 5 – 2 (-5.0) @ Detroit 1 – 6 (+5.0)
Alright, there is no question that Atlanta is a pretty damn good team. And picking against them every week hasn’t paid off too well. Still, when crunching the numbers, Detroit’s passing offense matches up very well against Atlanta’s weak passing defense, so I predict this game to be a shootout… Atlanta wins it, but not by much.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

Cincinnati 4 – 3 (+3.0) @ Baltimore 5 – 2 (-3.0)
Cincinnati has the talent to do some damage, but they haven’t actually looked comfortable all season long. Baltimore, on the other hand, seems to have their stuff together. I’ll take them at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

Dallas 4 – 3 (-3.0) @ Washington 2 – 5 (+3.0)
Even with the big question mark of Romo as a starting QB, Washington shouldn’t prove to be that tough for Dallas, who is simply the better football team.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

Green Bay 3 – 4 (+3.5) @ Buffalo 2 – 5 (-3.5)
Buffalo has a bad pass defense, Green Bay has a great passing game. Furthermore, GB’s only big weakness, pass defense, won’t be tested against the weak JP Losman led passing game. Green Bay should win this one easily.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *$Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Green Bay

Houston 2 – 5 (+13.0) @ N.Y. Giants 5 – 2 (-13.0)
Whats to analyze? New York is far, far superior, and at home, winning by two TD should be simple.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $N.Y. Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: N.Y. Giants

Kansas City 4 – 3 (+2.0) @ St. Louis 4 – 3 (-2.0)
Don’t think St. Louis has what it takes to stop KC’s run, and Herm has this team playing some good football. I think they upset the Rams on the road.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Kansas City

Miami 1 – 6 (+13.5) @ Chicago 7 – 0 (-13.5)
Another easy one. Did you know that the Dolphins are the only team in the league winless with the spread this season at 0 – 7? I expect that trend to continue, as the Bears get yet another easy opponent to destroy.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago

New Orleans 5 – 2 (-1.0) @ Tampa Bay 2 – 5 (+1.0)
I promised myself I wouldn’t go against my gut, and while the numbers and my brain definitely point in favor of the Saints, for some reason I’ve got a feeling about the Bucs this week. And maybe Vegas does, too, at only +1.0.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Tampa Bay

Tennessee 2 – 5 (+9.5) @ Jacksonville 4 – 3 (-9.5)
Really not quite sure what to expect from this game. I mean Jacksonville will win, certainly, but by 10? I think Tennessee used up all their emotion last week, and goes back to losing big this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Jacksonville

Minnesota 4 – 3 (-5.0) @ San Francisco 2 – 5 (+5.0)
-5? This one doesn’t make any sense to me. Minnesota is a tier above SF, and while they aren’t the flashiest team in the league, a win by a TD should be easy against these guys.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Minnesota

Cleveland 2 – 5 (+12.5) @ San Diego 5 – 2 (-12.5)
San Diego has an outstanding offense, but they are due for a bit of an off game. And while Cleveland isn’t going too blow anyone away with their talent, they do play every game tough. I think they will keep this loss to about 10 points, and win with the spread.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

Denver 5 – 2 (+3.0) @ Pittsburgh 2 – 5 (-3.0)
This is the only Zen pick I see this week; and I’m not going to take it. Two aspects; A) What is Vegas thinking making Pitts the fave? B) Pitts coming off the embarassing loss, should play their asses off today. Sure. But Denver is completely legitimate in my mind, and one loss to undefeated Indy doesn’t change that. I crunched the numbers, and see this as a very easy win for Denver. We’ll see if I’m wrong in due time.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Denver

Indianapolis 7 – 0 (+3.0) @ New England 6 – 1 (-3.0)
While I love the Colts, some things just work like clockwork year in and year out. And Tom Brady and the New England Patriots beating the Indianapolis Colts is one of those things. While I do think that the Colts have an excellent team and a damn good chance of winning, I’m not going to make the same mistake I always do in this matchup. I’ll just take the Pats.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

MONDAY

Oakland 2 – 5 (+7.0) @ Seattle 4 – 3 (-7.0)
Perfect. Two straight wins for the Raiders, Seattle is injured. Makes for a good game, right? Wrong. I’ve enjoyed the last few weeks as a Raider fan, but our cute little winning streak will come to a bitter end this week in Seattle, who needs a big win, and should be able to get one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 20 – 18 – 2 (.526)

1. Arkansas Razorbacks (-2.5) @ South Carolina Gamecocks (+2.5)
No disrespect to the Gamecocks, but the Razorbacks are completely the real deal. Having them as a favorite of less then a field goal is a steal against pretty much anyone in the nation right now.

2. Oklahoma State Cowboys @ Texas Longhorns OVER 63
My first over under pick in the Nickel… usually stay away from them, but this one is a breeze. The Longhorns have a stingy run defense but a lackluster pass defense, and the Cowboys are strong in both categories. So they will pass, pass, and pass somemore. Meanwhile, Texas has never had any trouble scoring points. Texas will win in a slugfest that results in over 63 points.

3. Hawaii Warriors (-26.5) @ Utah State Aggies (+26.5)
One of my new favorite teams in football, the Hawaii Warriors, face a far inferior team in the Aggies this week. And the Warriors aren’t afraid to run up the score, coming off of a 68 – 10 victory over Idaho last week. The same Idaho that beat Utah State earlier this season. Uh-oh…

4. Ohio State Buckeyes (-24.0) @ Illinois Fighting Illini (+24.0)
What would the nickel be without your free Ohio State win of the week? These guys are so good that it isn’t even fun anymore… unless you are a fan, or you bet them every week.

5. UCLA Bruins (+17.0) @ Cal Golden Bears (-17.0)
Ok, so Cal slipped up a bit last week. Happens to all teams. If anything, I’m glad, because it brought this spread down a little lower than it should be, because the Bruins are going to get absolutely mauled in this one.

HONORABLE MENTION (10 – 11 – 0):

LSU Fighting Tigers (-3.5) @ Tennessee Volunteers (+3.5)

Washington Huskies (+16.5) @ Oregon Ducks (-16.5)

BYU Cougars (-15.5) @ Colorado State Rams (+15.5)

YOU SAID IT!

Jonathan Roberts:

“ROFL RADIERS OVER ANYONE IS A BAD PICK, ‘NOUGH SAID. JUST CAUSE YOU GOT DAMN LUCKY LAST WEEK, DOESN’T MEAN IT WILL HAPPEN AGAIN THIS WEEK!!!” (Raiders 20 – Steelers 13)

Sarah Tarkoff:

“Stop betting against Pittsburgh. And stop being right.” (This was actually BEFORE the upset even took place)

Josh Park:

“The Broncos are a fluke and have no chance whatsoever to make the playoffs.”

Brian Consolazio:

“dave….when at the end of the year ur winning percentage without the spread is .497 u will no and just shake ur head that it should be at 500 if u would’ve just takin pittsburgh week 8 in ur halloween addition…TERRIBLE pick” (Wrong)

“and upset special this week is going to be the jets beating cleveland even tho it shouldnt realy be an upset” (Wrong, again – Jets 13 Cleveland 20)

Don’t be shy. Write in with whatever you’ve got, and get your spot on here!
—————
Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel? SEND ME FEEDBACK!

MY TEAM’S RECORDS
OAKLAND RAIDERS: 2 – 5 – 0
USC TROJANS: 6 – 1 – 0
LOS ANGELES KINGS: 4 – 8 – 3

Comments are closed