Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Well, that’s that – the regular season is over. On to the playoffs we go.

But first, how did I end up doing? If you go to ESPN.com and check out the expert’s picks (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/features/talent) without the spread, I ended the season with a record better than 5 of the 8 experts. Jaworski jumped me by one game (finishing up 155 – 101) by going 12 – 4 last week. Allen (156 – 100) and Golic (161 – 95) also ended up ahead of me. Theisman (144 – 96), Salisbury (151 – 105), Hoge (149 – 106), Schlereth (151 – 105), and Mortenson (139 – 116) all fell behind.

5 out of 8 isn’t too bad, considering how many terribly silly chances I take.

Against the spread (where it counts!), look to cbssportsline.com expert picks (http://cbs.sportsline.com/nfl/features/writers/expert/picks), where I beat everyone across the board. They went on slightly different spreads so ended up with four less ties; Pete Prisco was the only expert who ended his season over .500, going (118 – 117 – 5). Clark Judge (116 – 119 – 5), Greg Bromberg (105 – 130 – 5), Ron Davis (109 – 126 – 5), and Dave Richard (115 – 120 – 5) were all no match against the spread.

So, even if it was a tough season, looks like I’m as good as what these websites have got anyways. Rock on!

Now, last year’s playoffs I was nothing short of pathetic, going 3 – 8 with the spread and 4 – 7 without it. Shouldn’t be too hard to improve on those numbers… should it?

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 9 – 7 – 0 (.563)
Without the spread: 8 – 8 – 0 (.500)
$$Money Picks$$: 2 – 2 – 0 (.500)
^^Zen Picks^^: 2 – 1 – 0 (.667)
**Outright Upsets**: 3 – 5 – 0 (.375)

Season (Final)
With the spread: 126 – 121 – 9 (.510)
Without the spread: 154 – 102 – 0 (.602)
$$Money Picks$$: 27 – 30 – 1 (.474)
^^Zen Picks^^: 24 – 22 – 2 (.522)
**Outright Upsets**: 36 – 33 – 0 (.522)

Playoffs
With the spread: 0 – 0 – 0 (N/A)
Without the spread: 0 – 0 (N/A)
OVER/UNDER: 0 – 0 – 0 (N/A)
$$Money Picks$$: 0 – 0 – 0 (N/A)
^^Zen Picks^^: 0 – 0 – 0 (N/A)
**Outright Upsets**: 0 – 0 (N/A)

LAST WEEK’S RECAP OF DAVE’S BRILLIANCE AND FOOLISHNESS
(Often Foolishness)

N.Y. Giants 34 7 – 8 (-2.0) @ Washington 28 5 – 10 (+2.0)
Zen philosophy is no substitute for an awful defense it seems.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS *^Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS *Washington

Atlanta 17 7 – 8 (+8.0) @ Philadelphia 24 9 – 6 (-8.0)
Atlanta is so bad they can’t even beat the Eagles’ BACKUP squad.. but they did cover.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN *^Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS *Atlanta

Buffalo 7 7 – 8 (+9.5) @ Baltimore 19 12 – 3 (-9.5)
A fourth quarter FG by the Ravens was the only scoring in the fourth, and enough to beat the spread. This team looks GOOD.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS *Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN Baltimore

Carolina 31 7 – 8 (-3.0) @ New Orleans 21 10 – 5 (+3.0)
Didn’t realize that the Saints weren’t going to try AT ALL, but that’s alright; they earned that privilege.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS *$New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS *New Orleans

Cleveland 6 4 – 11 (+4.0) @ Houston 14 5 – 10 (-4.0)
Houston’s bad, Cleveland’s REAL bad.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN $Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN Houston

Detroit 39 2 – 13 (+12.5) @ Dallas 31 9 – 6 (-12.5)
Pathetic way to head into the playoffs by Dallas, and Detroit giving away Brady Quinn to the Raiders.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN *Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS Dallas

Jacksonville 30 8 – 7 (+2.5) @ Kansas City 35 8 – 7 (-2.5)
Forget the whole “playing for pride” thing, Kansas City somehow makes their way into the playoffs.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS *Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS *Jacksonville

New England 40 11 – 4 (+3.0) @ Tennessee 23 8 – 7 (-3.0)
I bet $25 that New England would win, and that the combined score of both teams would be higher than 41. That payed $98. Hooray Patriots!
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN *New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN *New England

Oakland 3 2 – 13 (+12.5) @ N.Y. Jets 23 9 – 6 (-12.5)
Oakland Raiders points on offense this year; 168. LaDanian Tomlinson points on offense this year; 168. No, I’m not making that up.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN N.Y. Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN N.Y. Jets

Seattle 23 8 – 7 (+3.5) @ Tampa Bay 7 4 – 11 (-3.5)
I know Seattle has been nothing to write home about this year, but this spread was stupid.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN *$Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN *Seattle

St. Louis 41 7 – 8 (-3.0) @ Minnesota 21 6 – 9 (+3.0)
Strong finish to the season for the Rams, but its too little too late.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS *Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS *Minnesota

San Francisco 26 6 – 9 (+10.5) @ Denver 23 9 – 6 (-10.5)
My joy of seeing the Broncos blow this game quickly turned to sadness when I heard the news about CB Darrent Williams being shot and killed Monday morning. My prayers go out to his family and friends.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS $Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS Denver

Green Bay 26 7 – 8 (+3.0) @ Chicago 7 13 – 2 (-3.0)
Maybe the Bears are content to head into the playoffs looking like complete garbage, but I wouldn’t have been.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS Chicago

DAMN, I’M GOOD

Miami 22 6 – 9 (+9.0) @ Indianapolis 27 11 – 4 (-9.0)
Pretty shocking how far the Colts have fallen off over the last month, as they went from an undefeated, unstoppable team to a team that looks to be booted out as soon as the playoffs begin. I’d love to say that they right the ship and blow the dolphins out this way, but sadly, that isn’t how I see it going down. Indy should pull off the win, but it will be by something like a field goal, not 10 points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN *Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN Indianapolis
– When you’re on, you’re on

Pittsburgh 23 7 – 8 (+6.0) @ Cincinnati 17 8 – 7 (-6.0)
Cinci has to be completely demoralized after last weeks loss. Pittsburgh has come on very strong in the second half of the season, beating pretty much everyone besides Baltimore over that span. Finishing the season at .500 should be plenty of motivation to play one more really strong game and upset their rival Bengals on the road.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN *^Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN *Pittsburgh
– Bet $24 that Pit would win AND that the game’s total would be under 44. This one paid $122. Nice betting day for me.

Arizona 20 5 – 10 (+14.0) @ San Diego 27 13 – 2 (-14.0)
Yes, Arizona is this bad, and yes, they are missing Matt Leinart now. But this IS the NFL, and a two touchdown spread is pretty offensive. Fair? Perhaps. But I expect the Cardinals to come out playing pretty hard, and while it may be for naught, I’ll take my chances with the points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN *Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN San Diego
– Looks like Kurt’s got a little left in the old arm after all.

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
$ – Indicates Money Pick
^ – Indicates Zen Pick

Since there are only a few games a week from here on out, I will be picking OVER/UNDERs as well as winners.

For those of you that don’t know what the OVER/UNDER is, bookmakers decide a number that they think will be close to the two team’s scores added together. If the bookmakers think the game will have a final score of 23 – 20, they will set the OVER/UNDER total at around 43. It is the bettor’s job to predict whether the actual score will be OVER or UNDER the projected total.

SATURDAY

#6 Kansas City 9 – 7 (+7.0) @ #3 Indianapolis 12 – 4 (-7.0)
In what will certainly be a popular upset pick, one of the league’s best running backs in Larry Johnson will go against the league’s worst rushing defense. As simple as this looks on paper, the fact of the matter is that Kansas City will have no answer for Indianapolis’s offense, either. So, does that mean I’m expecting a shootout? No. I’m going against logic here and saying that the Colts’ defense, at home, in the playoffs, finds a way to pull itself together and have a big game. Will they completely contain LJ? Highly unlikely. But I think they’ll do enough to keep the game a TD or more apart, and furthermore, keep the total of the game under 51.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
OVER/UNDER 51: UNDER

#5 Dallas 9 – 7 (+3.0) @ #4 Seattle 9 – 7 (-3.0)
This game is a disaster waiting to happen, with two of the most unpredictable teams in the game going against eachother. I’m giving Seattle the edge for a few reasons. The biggest one being that the game is in Seattle, and that could potentially rattle Romo a bit, especially considering that this team is the defending NFC champion and knows how to play in the playoffs. Besides that, if you look over the Cowboys season, of their 9 wins only one came against a team above .500 (Indy)… they haven’t really been tested. They have been playing terribly, and while Seattle isn’t much safer of a bet, I’ll take my chances on them. One thing seems pretty obvious though – expect a lot of points, because Dallas hasn’t stopped anyone lately, and if anything they still know how to put points on the board.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle
OVER/UNDER 46.5: OVER

SUNDAY

#5 New York Jets 10 – 6 (+8.5) @ #4 New England 12 – 4 (-8.5)
These two teams will meet for the third time this season, and for the third time this season, the Jets are heavy underdogs. In their last meeting, the Jets beat the Patriots; and stunningly enough, it was in New England. But this is the playoffs, and that changes everything… but it’s hard to tell in who’s favor. On one side, you’ve got the Patriots, perennial playoff contenders over the last 5 years or so… they know how to play in the playoffs, and they’ve got a QB who knows how to win. Plus, they are at home, which should make them even more comfortable. But the dangerous thing about this game is how easy it appears to be; ALL of the pressure is on the Patriots because everyone KNOWS they are going to win. No one but Jet fans will be picking the Jets. They are the underdog’s underdog, and that should make them a lot looser and potentially dangerous. I’m not brave enough to pick against New England in New England IN the playoffs… but I do expect a low scoring, intense game between these two teams, and 8.5 points is far too many to pass on.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *^New York Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England
OVER/UNDER 37.5: UNDER

#6 New York Giants 8 – 8 (+7.0) @ #3 Philadelphia 10 – 6 (-7.0)
I’ve got this feeling in my gut that the Giants are going to win this game. It has nothing to do with stats or momentum – Philadelphia holds the edge in both of those categories by a mile. I’m just terrified that the Giants are going to piece it all together this week and stupidly beat the Eagles. All that said, I’m not a COMPLETE moron (even if I am a bit of one). Philadelphia has taken their game to the next level, and a lot of these guys are no strangers to the playoffs either. Besides, the odds of the Giants as a team or Eli alone collapsing are SO much higher than the Eagles doing so. I’ll assume my gut feeling is just something I ate, and take the Eagles.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
OVER/UNDER 46.5: OVER

The likelihood of all four favorites actually winning seems slim, but that’s the way I’ve got it. We’ll see.

COLLEGE NICKEL: BOWL EDITION

With the spread: 14 – 14 – 0 (.500)
Without the spread: 17 – 11 (.607)
$$Money Picks$$: 3 – 3 – 0 (.500)
^^Zen Picks^^: 5 – 6 – 0 (.455)
**Outright Upsets**: 3 – 6 (.333)

Congrats to the Trojans on proving me wrong and having a great showing in the Rose Bowl, and to Boise State for their remarkable win and undefeated season. Only four bowls left – and just one that matters.

1 / 3 SUGAR BOWL (Re-posted from last week)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish 10 – 2 (+8.0) @ LSU Tigers 10 – 2 (-8.0)
I’ll put this to you simply. LSU is just a significantly better football team than the Fighting Irish. They are superior on both sides of the ball, and while 9 points may seem like alot, look what happened to Notre Dame when they faced Michigan and USC. Couple their superiority with the fact that the game is being played IN Louisiana, and you’ve got a pretty sure thing in the Tigers.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $LSU Tigers
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LSU Tigers

1 / 6 INTERNATIONAL BOWL
Western Michigan Broncos 8 – 4 (+7.0) @ Cincinnati Bearcats 7 – 5 (-7.0)
A pretty lousy bowl game, but certainly no match (in futility) for Sunday’s snoozefest. Cincinnati has played more worthwhile opponents, and on top of that, they have covered the spread in 8 of their last 9 games. They play up to their potential almost all the time, and should have no trouble getting pumped up for this bowl game. I don’t know enough about Western Michigan to know if they have any tricks up their sleeves that I’m not taking into account – but I’m not going to lose any sleep over it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati Bearcats
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati Bearcats

1 / 7 GMAC BOWL
Ohio Bobcats 9 – 4 (+6.0) @ Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles 8 – 5 (-6.0)
This has to be the single worst bowl game of them all. On top of the fact that I simply don’t know (or care) what GMAC is, these are about the two most boring teams you could find to play in a bowl game. I’ve been staring at the numbers for about 15 minutes, and it is mind numbing… these are two nothing teams that have played pretty much only nothing opponents. I’m at a total loss. I’ll take Ohio.. why? They’ve got a better record against the spread, they might have a better defense (?), and.. umm… whatever.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Ohio Bobcats
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Ohio Bobcats

1 / 8 BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
Florida Gators 12 – 1 (+7.0) @ Ohio State Buckeyes 12 – 0 (-7.0)
You have no idea how much time I put into crunching the numbers on these games! This one is a tough, tough game to call… both teams are just so damn good. Neither seems to have much of a weakness. Earlier in the week when the spread was at 8 points, I was saying that Florida would be a very good bet. I apparently wasn’t the only one who felt that way, as bettors have bet Florida heavily enough to move the spread down to 7. After breaking it down… I’ve gotta go with the Buckeyes. This team has won 19 straight games, and is 16 – 3 against the spread over that span of time. The reason for this is pretty simple – on top of utilizing their talent on both sides of the ball, this team doesn’t make mistakes. Forcing mistakes has been the key to Florida’s success all year; the offense has had so much success because the defense has given them great field possession and sparked momentum. The Gators are 10th in the nation with 17 interceptions. This is where Troy Smith comes in; he has only thrown 5 interceptions all year. He doesn’t make the bad decisions that the Gator’s are so accustomed to capitilizing on. Chris Leak, on the other hand, has thrown 13 INTs this year; and he’s going against the 2nd best INT team in the nation in Ohio State, who has 21 this year. The numbers also suggest that the battle on the offensive and defensive lines should favor the Buckeyes. If indeed the numbers hold true and the Gators don’t get a few bounces their way, Ohio State should finish up their season undefeated, and with a win against the spread. I’ve got it 24 – 13 OSU.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Ohio State Buckeyes
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Ohio State Buckeyes

Thank you all for sticking with me throughout the regular season! Hope you enjoy the playoff run!

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Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel? SEND ME FEEDBACK!

MY TEAM’S RECORDS
OAKLAND RAIDERS: 2 – 14 – 0
USC TROJANS: 11 – 2 – 0
LOS ANGELES KINGS: 14 – 22 – 5

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