2007 NFL Newsletter: Dave’s Dime Week 10

By , November 9, 2007

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Feels weird that we are still talking about football, since the Super Bowl has already been played and decided.

Honestly though, between the terrible job I’ve been doing this year picking games and the fact that we all already know who is going to win the Super Bowl this year, I seriously have no idea what I’m still doing this for.

Force of habit perhaps?

Maybe I’m a glutton for punishment?

Or maybe I like doing the punishing, making you read this nonsense every week!

Oh well, whatever the case, I’m still here.

At least we don’t have to watch the Patriots win again this week… the bye really is the only way to stop them.

Let’s get to the winners. (Haha!)

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 7 – 7 – 0 (.500)
Without the spread: 10 – 4 – 0 (.714)
^^Zen Picks^^: 1 – 0 – 0 (1.000)
**Outright Upsets**: 2 – 2 – 0 (.500)

Season
With the spread: 56 – 66 – 8 (.459)
Without the spread: 77 – 53 – 0 (.592)
^^Zen Picks^^: 9 – 2 – 1 (.818)
**Outright Upsets**: 13 – 23 – 0 (.361)

LAST WEEK’S RECAP OF DAVE’S BRILLIANCE AND FOOLISHNESS
(Usually Foolishness)

Arizona 3 – 4 (+3.5) @ Tampa Bay 4 – 4 (-3.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Arizona (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Arizona (LOSS)

Carolina (+4.5) @ Tennessee 5 – 2 (-4.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Carolina (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Carolina (LOSS)

Cincinnati 2 – 5 (-1.0) @ Buffalo 3 – 4 (+1.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati (LOSS)

Denver 3 – 4 (+3.0) @ Detroit 5 – 2 (-3.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Detroit (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Detroit (WIN)

Green Bay 6 – 1 (+2.5) @ Kansas City 4 – 3 (-2.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Kansas City (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Kansas City (LOSS)

Jacksonville 5 – 2 (+3.5) @ New Orleans 3 – 4 (-3.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans (WIN)

San Francisco 2 – 5 (+3.0) @ Atlanta 1 – 6 (-3.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta (WIN)

Washington 4 – 3 (-3.5) @ New York Jets 1 – 7 (+3.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Washington (WIN)

Seattle 4 – 3 (+1.0) @ Cleveland 4 – 3 (-1.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cleveland (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cleveland (WIN)

New England 8 – 0 (-6.0) @ Indianapolis 7 – 0 (+6.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England (WIN)

Dallas 6 – 1 (-3.0) @ Philadelphia 3 – 4 (+3.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas (WIN)

Baltimore 4 – 3 (+9.5) @ Pittsburgh 5 – 2 (-9.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Baltimore (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh (WIN)

DAMN, I’M GOOD

San Diego 4 – 3 (-7.0) @ Minnesota 2 – 5 (+7.0)
Going out on a limb here, but I think this is the week that the Chargers human sides kick in. The emotional effects of the fires have to be lingering, and traveling cross country away from friends and family is going to get to these guys. Minnesota’s strong rush defense will at least give them a fighting chance, and I am taking them to pull the upset here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *^Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Minnesota
– Wow. That’s all I can say. Congrats to Adrian Peterson for the record setting performance.

Houston 3 – 5 (+3.0) @ Oakland 2 – 5 (-3.0)
“You can go through all the statistics you want, play fantasy football and draft whoever you want. At the end of the day it’s turnover ratio that decides football games.” Ex-Raider Coach Jon Gruden summed it up perfectly here; with turnover-machine Josh McCown back under center, the Raiders should fall in this one. I hope Jamarcus and his agent are happy; if they hadn’t been so stingy, he’d be starting VERY soon.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Houston
– McCown’s 3 picks make the difference here.

THE PICKS
* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Zen Pick

Atlanta 2 – 6 (+3.5) @ Carolina 4 – 4 (-3.5)
Sure, Atlanta picked up their 2nd win of the season last week… but the 49ers at home and Carolina on the road are much different stories. Even with 154 year old Vinny Testaverde running Carolina’s offense, they should be able to handle Atlanta.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina

Buffalo 4 – 4 (-3.0) @ Miami 0 – 8 (+3.0)
I keep picking Miami, and they keep losing. What gets me about this game is the spread. You have a 4 – 4 Buffalo team (including 2 heartbreaking last second losses to Denver and Dallas; they could easily be 6 – 2) VS. an absolutely pitiful Dolphins team. So why on earth is the spread only -3? Seems like a trap to me. Factor in historically the fact that winless home underdogs against division rivals tend to play extraordinarily well, you’ve gotta play the Dolphins here; even if it is like pulling teeth.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Miami

Cleveland 5 – 3 (+10.0) @ Pittsburgh 6 – 2 (-10.0)
Another game that is decided for me solely by the spread. Cleveland is this year’s feel good story, everyone is backing them and they look to be completely legit. So why am I getting 10 points? I feel most people would consider Cleveland at +6 or +7… so this tells me the bookies know something. I won’t spring the trap.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

Denver 3 – 5 (+3.0) @ Kansas City 4 – 4 (-3.0)
Kansas City has had the league’s best home field advantage for years, and they send Priest Holmes out there against the league’s worst rushing defense. I like my chances with the Chiefs here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Kansas City

Jacksonville 5 – 3 (+5.0) @ Tennessee 6 – 2 (-5.0)
Jacksonville playing its third road game in a row, Tennessee playing its third home game in a row; I’d love this game for the home team even if Tennessee WEREN’T the better team… which they are.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee

Minnesota 3 – 5 (+5.5) @ Green Bay 7 – 1 (-5.5)
Brett Favre will have no trouble picking apart Minnesota’s weak secondary… and their rushing defense should fare quite a bit better than San Diego’s did last week against Peterson.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

Philadelphia 3 – 5 (+3.0) @ Washington 5 – 3 (-3.0)
In what should be a low scoring, boring game, Washington will win. Only the truest of Redskins and Eagles fans can justify watching this game over any other game on the schedule this morning.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Washington

St. Louis 0 – 8 (+10.5) @ New Orleans 4 – 4 (-10.5)
St. Louis has to get it going sooner or later…. I’m gonna go ahead and go with LATER on this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

Cincinnati 2 – 6 (+3.0) @ Baltimore 4 – 4 (-3.0)
Cincinnati looks like a bargain against a Baltimore team that was just made a fool of on Monday, don’t they? Please. Appalachian State could put up 30 on this Bengals’ defense. Baltimore, especially on offense, has been awful… but the Bengals take awful to a whole new level.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

Chicago 3 – 5 (-3.5) @ Oakland 2 – 6 (+3.5)
Before the season started, I chalked this one up as an automatic loss for a Raider team I thought could be a 6 – 8 win team. Pathetic QBing has taken me away from that belief. Yet even more surprising has been the downfall of the Bears. I predicted they would struggle this year, but had no clue they would be THIS bad. They are as bad, if not worse, than this Raiders team on both sides of the ball. Remember, I just picked Houston money line last week, so it isn’t like I’m too high on the Raiders. This is just one of those rare games that the Raiders are going to win, putting an exclamation mark on how far the Bears have fallen.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Oakland

Dallas 7 – 1 (-1.5) @ New York Giants 6 – 2 (+1.5)
Really don’t know what to expect from these two… they haven’t really played anyone. Since their last meeting, both teams have 6 wins. The combined record of the 6 teams beaten? 13 – 36 for the Giants, 13 – 35 for Dallas. I think these teams are pretty evenly matched (and perhaps both overrated)… so I think home field is the deciding factor here. I’m 8 – 0 on Giants games this year, so I must be right!
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *New York Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *New York Giants

Detroit 6 – 2 (+1.5) @ Arizona 3 – 5 (-1.5)
Tough, tough game. Detroit seems to be the obvious pick. So with the spread being a point and a half in Arizona’s favor, I really wanted to figure out why before I blindly took the Lions. In the process, I talked myself into picking Arizona. Detroit is 2 – 2 on the road this season with wins against lowly Oakland and Chicago… and blowout losses to Washington and Philadelphia. Arizona has two excellent WRs in Boldin and Fitzgerald and hasn’t faced a secondary as bad as Detroit’s yet. They also have a pretty decent defense of their own. Don’t be blinded by the records; Arizona is the pick here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona

Indianapolis 7 – 1 (-3.5) @ San Diego 4 – 4 (+3.5)
Everyone was hopping back on board with San Diego being “back to last season’s form” before the Vikings game… but do wins against Denver, Oakland, and Houston really warrant that? Norv Turner has taken a top 3 team and turned it into a “good” team. And good just isn’t enough to hang with the Colts.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

San Francisco 2 – 6 (+10.0) @ Seattle 4 – 4 (-10.0)
10 points seems to be an awful lot to give up to take Seattle… but it is impossible not to hear. San Francisco has been a huge disappointment this year and hasn’t been able to do anything right; I don’t see them going into Seattle and making this a game.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle

How in the world do I pick the home team 13 of the 14 games? This won’t end well…

AVERAGE JOE THEORY

Going on my theory that Vegas always wins, if you always bet the exact opposite of Average Joe, wouldn’t you end up a winner? Average Joe is the football fan that doesn’t crunch numbers or anything, just knows the teams and picks what looks good/easy to him. In other words, Vegas’s perfect target.

I want to try to channel in to Average Joe and make all the picks I think he would make. If he picks around 50/50, I don’t have an angle. But if he picks 45% winners… betting against him would definitely be a profitable affair. If he does better than I do consistently, I can just “become him”. So lets find out how “he” does this year.

Last Week: 1 – 2 – 0
Season: 16 – 9 – 0

Average Joe’s Picks:
BUF (-3.0) – “The Dolphins are so bad they are probably going 0 – 16 this year!”
CLE (+10.0) – “Division rival, Cleveland keeps this close!”
NO (-10.5) – “Rams might be even worse than the Dolphins!”
DET (+1.5) – “They will KILL Arizona! Kitna = 10 wins!”

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 34 – 37 – 0 (.479)

10 picks from Saturday! View them here; http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vpsg7JGnfIk

1. Arkansas +1.0 over Tennessee (LOSS)

2. Missouri -19.0 over Texas A & M (LOSS)

3. Air Force -3.5 over Notre Dame (WIN)

4. Arizona State -7.0 over UCLA (LOSS)

5. Ohio State -15.0 over Illinois (LOSS)

6. Oklahoma -38.0 over Baylor (LOSS)

7. Oklahoma/Baylor OVER 56 (WIN)

8. Washington State -10.5 over Stanford (WIN)

9. USC -4.0 over California (WIN)

10. Hawaii -17.5 over Fresno State (LOSS)

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