Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Allright, its about time I fess up…

I record games on TiVo. I then watch these games and study both teams to try and give myself an unfair advantage when picking winners each week.

I guess I’m no better the Brian Belichick, who records his opponents’ defensive schemes to give himself an unfair advantage to help his team win huh?

Ok, I’m sorry, I had to get my shot in… I’ve hated the Patriots since the infamous “tuck rule” that catapulted this whole dynasty in what should have been the Raiders’ year.

In all seriousness, I think this scandal is going to have very little effect on the Patriots, and they will still have a 12 to 14 win season and be among the best in the AFC right up there with IND and SD.

But wouldn’t it be awesome – and this is still the Pats-hater in me – if the Pats go 6 – 10 this year with no key injuries and completely miss the playoffs, pretty much proving 100% that they’ve been cheating this whole time?

That’d be awesome.

Still doesn’t explain how they got the refs on their side for the tuck rule call though…

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 8 – 6 – 2 (.571)
Without the spread: 11 – 5 – 0 (.688)
$$Money Picks$$: 1 – 0 – 0 (1.000)
^^Zen Picks^^: 1 – 0 – 0 (1.000)
**Outright Upsets**: 1 – 2 – 0 (.333)

Season
With the spread: 8 – 6 – 2 (.571)
Without the spread: 11 – 5 – 0 (.688)
$$Money Picks$$: 1 – 0 – 0 (1.000)
^^Zen Picks^^: 1 – 0 – 0 (1.000)
**Outright Upsets**: 1 – 2 – 0 (.333)

LAST WEEK’S RECAP OF DAVE’S BRILLIANCE AND FOOLISHNESS
(Usually Foolishness)

New Orleans 10 (+6.0) @ Indianapolis 41 (-6.0)
Any surprise this team won the Super Bowl?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN Indianapolis

Kansas City 3 (+3.0) @ Houston 20 (-3.0)
If this is what we should expect from Kansas City this year, the Raiders won’t be the worst team in the AFC West.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS *Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS *Kansas City

Denver 15 (-3.0) @ Buffalo 14 (+3.0)
Thoughts and prayers go out to Kevin Everett and his friends and family. Hopefully recent reports that he may walk again turn out to be true.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN Denver

Pittsburgh 34 (-5.0) @ Cleveland 7 (+5.0)
Is Pittsburgh this good, or Cleveland this bad? Might be a bit of both, but one thing is for sure – Cleveland is this bad.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN $Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN Pittsburgh

Carolina 27 (+1.0) @ St. Louis 13 (-1.0)
Hold on to the ball Steven!
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS St. Louis

Philadelphia 13 (-3.0) @ Green Bay 16 (+3.0)
If I didn’t know better, I’d say Philadelphia WANTED to lose this game.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS Philadelphia

Miami 13 (+3.0) @ Washington 16 (-3.0)
About as good a game as these two teams could give you.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: TIE Washington

New England 38 (-6.5) @ New York Jets 14 (+6.5)
Easy to win when you cheat, isn’t it? (Sorry, it is too easy)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN New England

Tampa Bay 6 (+6.0) @ Seattle 20 (-6.0)
No surprises here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN Seattle

Chicago 3 (+6.0) @ San Diego 14 (-6.0)
Great game for San Diego… this really is an excellent team.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN San Diego

Detroit 36 (+1.5) @ Oakland 21 (-1.5)
Oakland played better than this score looks. To their credit though, Detroit’s offense looks great.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS Oakland

New York Giants 35 (+6.0) @ Dallas 45 (-6.0)
Losing the game, losing Jacobs and Manning, along with showing gaping holes on defense, this is about as bad an opener as the Giants could have possibly had.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN Dallas

Baltimore 20 (+3.0) @ Cincinnati 27 (-3.0)
Great game, crazy finish.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS *Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS *Baltimore

Arizona 17 (+3.0) @ San Francisco 20 (-3.0)
And these two are supposed to be improved. Yikes.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: TIE San Francisco

DAMN, I’M GOOD

Atlanta 3 (+3.0) @ Minnesota 24 (-3.0)
Joey Harrington starting at quarterback for the Atlanta Falcons. Do I really, possibly have to say anything more than that?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN Minnesota
– Nope, looks like I didn’t.

Tennessee (+6.5) @ Jacksonville (-6.5)
I think Tennessee is going to have a pretty bad team this year, having lost Bennett and Henry, and Vince Young is a prime candidate for a huge sophomore slump. That being said, I think after an entire offseason of Pacman Jones drama, this team is as focused and ready to play some football more than just about anyone else out there. Couple this with the fact that Jacksonville let go of Leftwich so close to the beginning of the season, and this one just might be that big upset this weekend.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN ^*Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN *Tennessee
– Not bad huh?

THE PICKS
* – Indicates Upset Pick
$ – Indicates Money Pick
^ – Indicates Zen Pick

Later on in the season, spreads that seem “off” tend to scare me, because it probably means the bookies know something we don’t. It is smart to be aware of this, but it is also smart to know a value when you see one. This early in the season, some of these spreads are just too nice to pass up on, even if they won’t all be winners…

SUNDAY

Atlanta 0 – 1 (+10.0) @ Jacksonville 0 – 1 (-10.0)
All I can say is; this is going to be a long, long season for Falcons fans. And you thought the offseason was bad…
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Jacksonville

Buffalo 0 – 1 (+9.5) @ Pittsburgh 1 – 0 (-9.5)
Pittsburgh looked great, but playing against Cleveland (who a. sucks and b. is a team who’s number you have had for years) will do that for you. Buffalo is one of those teams that are just tough to play against week in and week out. Wouldn’t be shocked by a Pittsburgh blowout, but a win in the single-digit area seems a lot more likely to me.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

Cincinnati 1 – 0 (-7.0) @ Cleveland 0 – 1 (+7.0)
Seven points, huh? These are the types of games I love to put money on. I either win and get to laugh about what easy money it was, or lose and I get to whine and complain about how there was ABSOLUTELY NO WAY THAT SHOULD HAVE HAPPENED.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati

Green Bay 1 – 0 (+2.0) @ N.Y. Giants 0 – 1 (-2.0)
Not even factoring in all of the injuries, that Giants secondary just looked terrible against the Cowboys. Look for Green Bay to get off to an unexpected 2 – 0 start to get the season rolling.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Green Bay

Houston 1 – 0 (+6.5) @ Carolina 1 – 0 (-6.5)
Houston looked great last week, but at home against the Chiefs and on the road against the Panthers are two very different beasts. Still need to see a few more good games out of Houston to legitimize them – Carolina, on the other hand, I’m comfortable legitimizing right now.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina

Indianapolis 1 – 0 (-7.0) @ Tennessee 1 – 0 (+7.0)
Here is a fun fact. Since 11/19/06, Tennessee is 7 – 1 against the spread and 7 – 1 without it in regular season play, compared to the Colts who are 3 – 5 against the spread and 3 – 5 without it in that same time frame. Fascinating isn’t it? Here is another fun fact; the Colts are going to win this game by more than 28 points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

New Orleans 0 – 1 (-4.0) @ Tampa Bay 0 – 1 (+4.0)
Need some money? Bet this game and the one right above it. Any edge that Tampa Bay may have had due to it being their home opener is completely negated by the fact that the Saints were totally embarrassed on prime time national television last Thursday night. This week, they will be the ones doing the embarrassing.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

San Francisco 1 – 0 (+3.0) @ St. Louis 0 – 1 (-3.0)
An ugly win for the 49ers and an ugly loss for the Rams last weekend brings us to this game, which really could go either way. I’m expecting some fireworks in this game, as well as some great rushing from two of the best in the game… but when push comes to shove (er, push comes to pass), St. Louis should prevail.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: St. Louis

Dallas 1 – 0 (-4.0) @ Miami 0 – 1 (+4.0)
Of all the off-spread games, this one makes me the most nervous. How much of Dallas’s 45 points and Romo’s brilliance attributed to the Giant defense? Miami is not a good team, but they are still great on defense, which always makes them an upset waiting to happen. I’m taking Dallas, but not putting too much faith in it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

Minnesota 1 – 0 (+3.0) @ Detroit 1 – 0 (-3.0)
The Lions did look great on offense, yes, but it was the Raiders’ mistakes – 3 turnovers and 3 missed field goals – that led to great field position and points. I expect Minnesota to play a bit more disciplined and find a way to win. Besides, the Vikings have won 14 of the last 15 games these teams have played, including 10 straight. And they are the underdog. I’ll take my chances.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Minnesota

Seattle 1 – 0 (-3.0) @ Arizona 0 – 1 (+3.0)
Seems no matter what they do, Seattle doesn’t get any respect among the betting public. That’s fine by me… these spreads are a gift I’ll keep on taking.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle

Kansas City 0 – 1 (+12.0) @ Chicago 0 – 1 (-12.0)
With only one weapon, the Chiefs will have trouble doing anything at all against the Bears’ defense. And while 12 points may seem like a lot for a Grossman offense, on field position battle and defense alone, the Bears will win this one comfortably. VERY comfortably.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago

N.Y. Jets 0 – 1 (+11.0) @ Baltimore 0 – 1 (-11.0)
One of the toughest games on the schedule this week for me at this spread, especially with McNair potentially out. I can see this being a good game, but the fact that the Ravens are 5 – 0 against the spread in their last 5 against the Jets, plus the fact that the Jets may be starting a young QB for the first time in a very hostile environment, I guess I have to take the Ravens to win by 2+ TDs, even though I’m not extremely comfortable doing so.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

Oakland 0 – 1 (+10.0) @ Denver 1 – 0 (-10.0)
I saw something I haven’t seen in the Raiders in about 5 years last Sunday; passion. WR core looked great, O line looked better, Lamont Jordan looked great, defense was screwed over by consistently being given terrible field position to work with. Despite the yardage he put up, I thought Josh McCown was a pretty glaring weakness. This week, it will be Daunte Culpepper. The Broncos’ offense looked containable against the Bills, and I believe the Raiders’ defense will have a much easier time containing them then they did the Lions.

(Say it ain’t so, Dave… you aren’t really going to pick against the Broncos here are you? The Raiders have lost 7 of their last 8 games against the Broncos, and are 2 – 10 against them in their last 12 in Denver. You wouldn’t be this much of a homer and make this stupid of a pick, would you?)

First of all, I’m no homer… I’m very aware of the fact that the Raiders suck and in fact picked against them (even when they had the points, which was pretty much every game) 10 of their 16 games last year. I don’t pick the team I like better, I pick the team that is going to win the ball game.

And in my first big upset stunner of the year, this defensive struggle is going Oakland’s way.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Oakland

San Diego 1 – 0 (+4.0) @ New England 1 – 0 (-4.0)
I was leaning towards San Diego in this game, simply because of how great they look, but all that gets thrown out of the window thanks to the media this week. After an entire week of hearing what a bunch of phonies and fakes and cheaters and losers they are, do you really think this team is going to let ANYONE come into their home stadium and beat them? Not a chance.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

MONDAY
Washington 1 – 0 (+7.0) @ Philadelphia 0 – 1 (-7.0)
Still expect Washington to suck and Philly to have a good season… but after Washington’s good game and the Eagles’ debacle last week, the Redskins have earned themselves my pick for at least this week. With the points, that is…
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 2 – 3 – 0 (.400)

10 picks this week! View them here; http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iin3lRHqfeE

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