Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

I guess as a guy that never catches a break, I shouldn’t be too surprised that the weekend I spent in Vegas would be one of the oddest in years, and a complete betting disaster.

Lost in the midst of former Trojan OJ Simpson’s arrest, only 3 favorites covered the spread. Yes. 13 of the 16 favorites this week did not cover. 12 losses, 1 tie.

And that was just against the spread. 7 of the 12 favorites that lost against the spread lost outright, too. Indy was lucky they didn’t. The Broncos had to pull a terribly cheap trick not to, and that was against the Josh McCown led Raiders for God’s sake.

In any case, this week teaches us 3 very important lessons.

1. THIS IS A PROFESSIONAL SPORT. Yes, some teams are much, much better than others. But these athletes are the best in the world at their sport. The term “Any Given Sunday”, later made into a terrible movie starring Al Pacino, was coined for a reason. It is true; on any given Sunday, team A can beat team B. There is a reason why the best sports bettors in the world only pick 60% winners against the spread.

2. VEGAS KNOWS, YOU DON’T, AND I DON’T. The idea of a spread is to get even betting, 50% for one team, 50% for the other. It isn’t necessarily how pro bookies think the game is going to go. It is simply a matter of getting both halves of the betting public about even, and collecting the extra dollar on the losers (since you are betting 11 to win 10).

So what happens when a fan favorite (New Orleans) is going against a league dud (Tampa Bay), and the line looks terribly easy?

If it were New Orleans -9.0, bets on both sides would be about even. But New Orleans -4.0? 80+% of the betting public is taking New Orleans.

Do you really think Vegas would just give away free money to that many people? No way. They knew something about this match-up was favorable for the Buccaneers, and they knew that the public would bite, and bite hard.

Does that mean every time a line looks off, the “off team” will win? No, not every time… But pretty damn often.

3. EVERY TIME I MAKE A MONEY PICK, WHICH LOOKS LIKE A SURE THING, IT NEVER SEEMS TO WIN, EVER. What I’m… never mind. This one is self explanatory.

Cheers to the Steelers, Patriots, and Cowboys for covering the damn spread.

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 5 – 10 – 1 (.333)
Without the spread: 8 – 8 – 0 (.500)
$$Money Picks$$: 0 – 5 – 0 (.000)
^^Zen Picks^^: 2 – 0 – 0 (1.000)
**Outright Upsets**: 1 – 2 – 0 (.333)

Season
With the spread: 13 – 16 – 3 (.448)
Without the spread: 19 – 13 – 0 (.598)
$$Money Picks$$: 1 – 5 – 0 (.167)
^^Zen Picks^^: 3 – 0 – 0 (1.000)
**Outright Upsets**: 2 – 4 – 0 (.333)

LAST WEEK’S RECAP OF DAVE’S BRILLIANCE AND FOOLISHNESS
(Usually Foolishness)

Atlanta 7 0 – 1 (+10.0) @ Jacksonville 13 0 – 1 (-10.0)
Wow, what a thriller this one was. (Yawn)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN Jacksonville

Buffalo 3 0 – 1 (+9.5) @ Pittsburgh 26 1 – 0 (-9.5)
Can’t wait to see Pittsburgh play a GOOD team.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS *Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN Pittsburgh

Cincinnati 45 1 – 0 (-7.0) @ Cleveland 51 0 – 1 (+7.0)
Cinci had better hope this pathetic defensive performance was an anomaly…
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS $Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS Cincinnati

Green Bay 35 1 – 0 (+2.0) @ N.Y. Giants 13 0 – 1 (-2.0)
Love him or hate him, Favre’s run has certainly been impressive.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN *Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN *Green Bay

Houston 34 1 – 0 (+6.5) @ Carolina 21 1 – 0 (-6.5)
Carr wasn’t bad, but Schaub is actually GOOD.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS Carolina

Indianapolis 22 1 – 0 (-7.0) @ Tennessee 20 1 – 0 (+7.0)
Stats be damned, Vince Young can play football.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS $Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN Indianapolis

New Orleans 14 0 – 1 (-4.0) @ Tampa Bay 31 0 – 1 (+4.0)
My preseason prediction that this year’s Saints team wouldn’t be as good as last year’s (despite being pretty much the same team) looks to be right so far.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS $New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS New Orleans

San Francisco 17 1 – 0 (+3.0) @ St. Louis 16 0 – 1 (-3.0)
San Fran is picking up ugly wins, but wins are wins. When they actually start clicking, they will be even more dangerous.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS St. Louis

Dallas 37 1 – 0 (-4.0) @ Miami 20 0 – 1 (+4.0)
One of the only games I was nervous about went exactly as it should have.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN Dallas

Minnesota 17 1 – 0 (+3.0) @ Detroit 20 1 – 0 (-3.0)
Easily could have gone either way, so why would it go my way?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: TIE *Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS *Minnesota

Seattle 20 1 – 0 (-3.0) @ Arizona 23 0 – 1 (+3.0)
Arizona coughs up the lead, but then actually pulls out a win. Last year’s team didn’t find ways to do that.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS $Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS Seattle

Kansas City 10 0 – 1 (+12.0) @ Chicago 20 0 – 1 (-12.0)
Boring…
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS $Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN Chicago

N.Y. Jets 13 0 – 1 (+11.0) @ Baltimore 20 0 – 1 (-11.0)
Also boring…
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN Baltimore

Oakland 20 0 – 1 (+10.0) @ Denver 23 1 – 0 (-10.0)
If Culpepper were starting, the Raiders would very likely be 2 – 0 right now.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN ^*Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS *Oakland

San Diego 14 1 – 0 (+4.0) @ New England 38 1 – 0 (-4.0)
Cheaters or not, they are still pretty good. As for Norv Turner… what a joke.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN ^New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN New England

Washington 20 1 – 0 (+7.0) @ Philadelphia 12 0 – 1 (-7.0)
Donovan, black or white, if you play poorly and lose, you are going to get criticized.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN *Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS Philadelphia

DAMN, I’M GOOD

The Raider game should be here, but a few bad passes by McCown and a cheap trick by Mike Shanahan leaves this section empty this week.

THE PICKS
* – Indicates Upset Pick
$ – Indicates Money Pick
^ – Indicates Zen Pick

I’m a little gun shy after last week’s disastrous picks… but pick I must.

SUNDAY

Arizona 1 – 1 (+7.5) @ Baltimore 1 – 1 (-7.5)
While Arizona did pick up an impressive win last week, heading into a very tough Baltimore crowd as well as the return of Steve McNair will likely be a bit more than they can handle.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

Buffalo 0 – 2 (+17.0) @ New England 2 – 0 (-17.0)
Come on now. This is the NFL! Didn’t we learn anything from last week? Even if New England “should” win this game 42 – 3, I will take any NFL team at +17.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

Detroit 2 – 0 (+5.5) @ Philadelphia 0 – 2 (-5.5)
I don’t know which would surprise me more, Detroit at 3 – 0, or Philadelphia at 0 – 3? Neither is happening this week when Philly puts a game together for the first time this season.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

Indianapolis 2 – 0 (-6.5) @ Houston 2 – 0 (+6.5)
With Andre Johnson in the lineup, I was all over Houston keeping this one close. Without him, the Texans simply down have the weapons to keep up with the Colts. I’ll take the defending champs at under a touchdown any day of the week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

Miami 0 – 2 (+3.0) @ New York Jets 0 – 2 (-3.0)
The Jets haven’t looked good, but playing New England and Baltimore will do that to you. At home against a team they always beat, you have to love them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New York Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Jets

Minnesota 1 – 1 (+3.0) @ Kansas City 0 – 2 (-3.0)
The Chiefs simply haven’t shown me anything that would lead me to believe that are beating anyone any time soon. Even at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Minnesota

San Diego 1 – 1 (-5.5) @ Green Bay 2 – 0 (+5.5)
San Diego hasn’t looked that great, and Green Bay has been quite impressive. That said, San Diego is still one of the AFC’s elite; and I know a certain someone who is overdue on a 100+ yard, 3 touchdown day.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

San Francisco 2 – 0 (+9.5) @ Pittsburgh (-9.5)
San Francisco keeps being pesky and stealing wins, Pittsburgh keeps blowing teams out. Who cracks first? I say San Francisco gives Pittsburgh a bit of a test this week… but it really is a toss up.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

St. Louis 0 – 2 (+4.0) @ Tampa Bay 1 – 1 (-4.0)
Last week was a serious aberration on what this Tampa Bay team is really capable of. St. Louis will not fall to 0 – 3; they will move the ball efficiently and win this game without much difficulty.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $*St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *St. Louis

Cincinnati 1 – 1 (+3.0) @ Seattle 1 – 1 (-3.0)
“If Derrick Anderson can pass for 5 TDs, imagine what Hasslebeck will do!” Ehh, this one looks too easy. Cinci’s defense will step it up big after being ridiculed all week and find a way to contain the Seahawks. And if they don’t? Palmer’s arm gives you a shot every week anyways.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Cincinnati

Cleveland 1 – 1 (+3.0) @ Oakland 0 – 2 (-3.0)
As much as I hate that Josh McCown is starting over Daunte Culpepper and as much as I dislike picking the Raiders for 3 straight weeks, I really have no choice here. They are the better team, at home, and they are going to win this game. Unless, of course, McCown gives it away… AGAIN.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Oakland

Jacksonville 1 – 1 (+3.5) @ Denver 2 – 0 (-3.5)
In what should be a terribly boring game, the Broncos owe it to their fans to win this one by at least a TD after the close call against Oakland last week. Besides, Jacksonville’s offense isn’t exactly explosive.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver

Carolina 1 – 1 (-4.0) @ Atlanta 0 – 2 (+4.0)
This is one of those games that scare me, seeing as this is Atlanta’s home opener… but I simply can’t bring myself to pick them if I’m only getting 4 points. Carolina really should be able to overcome the crowd and contain this pitiful offense.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina

New York Giants 0 – 2 (+3.5) @ Washington 2 – 0 (-3.5)
No stats here, just a gut feeling; the Giants put a good game together here and beat the Redskins.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *New York Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *New York Giants

Dallas 2 – 0 (+3.0) @ Chicago 1 – 1 (-3.0)
This one is tough. Chicago defense or Romo’s arm? After putting up 37 on a pretty tough Miami defense on the road, I have to give the Cowboys the benefit of the doubt and say they can keep the good times rolling this week. That, and I just don’t trust Chicago’s offense.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Dallas

MONDAY

Tennessee (+4.0) @ New Orleans (-4.0)
Toughest game of the week in my opinion, so I guess it is fitting its Monday night. The Titans have established themselves as one of the NFL’s toughest teams to play against week in and week out; Vince Young and Jeff Fischer both deserve a lot of credit for that. I’ve come to hate picking against them; but I have no choice here. The Saints have been completely embarrassed for two straight weeks, and have looked absolutely terrible. Now in their home opener they must win to avoid a horrific 0 – 3 start, and they must win convincingly to boost the team and fan morale. It’ll be tough, but if this team can’t man up and put together a great effort for a strong win in this game, then they aren’t going to have the character to put together much of a season down the stretch. I have to believe the offense wakes up for Monday night.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 14 – 11 – 0 (.560)

5 picks from Saturday! View them here; http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKFBJ4sKsQ4

1. LSU (-18.0) over South Carolina (LOSS)
2. Michigan State (-11.0) over Notre Dame (WIN)

3. Cincinnati (-24.0) over Marshall (WIN)

4. Oregon State (+11.5) over Arizona State (LOSS)

5. Oregon (-17.0) over Stanford (WIN)

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MY TEAM’S RECORDS
OAKLAND RAIDERS: 0 – 2 – 0
USC TROJANS: 3 – 0 – 0
LOS ANGELES KINGS: 0 – 0 – 0 – 0

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