2007 NFL Newsletter: Dave’s Dime Week 4

By , September 28, 2007

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Well this isn’t any fun.

It is always difficult to get out of a slump, because losing this badly gets into your head, and effects the way you pick the games. Once your confidence is shaken, it is hard to get it back.

This has been an odd year so far to say the least. Look no further than the RB position; was anyone expecting Lamont Jordan to be the best RB in the AFC West by a mile? His 350 rushing yards are 2nd in the league, compared to Travis Henry’s 302 (4th), Larry Johnson’s 140 (30th?!?) and Ladanian Tomlinson’s 130 (33rd!?!!)

I’m not making any excuses. But in a season still to young to crunch the numbers on, intuition is critical; and winners just aren’t jumping off the page at me.

I’ve done away with “Money Picks” for a few reasons. For one, I’ve been sucking at them. But more importantly, you shouldn’t overvalue games in the NFL. It is nearly impossible to consistently pick winners in the NFL… so way make some of those wins less meaningful by doubling up the amount you are betting on other games? Choosing a specific amount you want to bet per game is much smarter than trying to select MONEY PICKS that are worth two or three times more to you.

Besides, I don’t want to spend all year trying to force it when a situation isn’t really a best bet just to get the statistic up.

Keep your fingers crossed for me this week!

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 4 – 9 – 3 (.308)
Without the spread: 10 – 6 – 0 (.625)
^^Zen Picks^^: 0 – 1 – 1 (1.000)
**Outright Upsets**: 2 – 3 – 0 (.400)

Season
With the spread: 17 – 25 – 6 (.405)
Without the spread: 29 – 19 – 0 (.604)
^^Zen Picks^^: 3 – 1 – 1 (.750)
**Outright Upsets**: 4 – 7 – 0 (.364)

LAST WEEK’S RECAP OF DAVE’S BRILLIANCE AND FOOLISHNESS
(Usually Foolishness)

Arizona 1 – 1 (+7.5) @ Baltimore 1 – 1 (-7.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore (WIN)

Buffalo 0 – 2 (+17.0) @ New England 2 – 0 (-17.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Buffalo (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England (WIN)

Detroit 2 – 0 (+5.5) @ Philadelphia 0 – 2 (-5.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia (WIN)

Indianapolis 2 – 0 (-6.5) @ Houston 2 – 0 (+6.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis (WIN)

Miami 0 – 2 (+3.0) @ New York Jets 0 – 2 (-3.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New York Jets (TIE)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Jets (WIN)

Minnesota 1 – 1 (+3.0) @ Kansas City 0 – 2 (-3.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Minnesota (TIE)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Minnesota (LOSS)

San Diego 1 – 1 (-5.5) @ Green Bay 2 – 0 (+5.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego (LOSS)

San Francisco 2 – 0 (+9.5) @ Pittsburgh (-9.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *San Francisco (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh (WIN)

St. Louis 0 – 2 (+4.0) @ Tampa Bay 1 – 1 (-4.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *St. Louis (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *St. Louis (LOSS)

Cincinnati 1 – 1 (+3.0) @ Seattle 1 – 1 (-3.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Cincinnati (TIE)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Cincinnati (LOSS)

Cleveland 1 – 1 (+3.0) @ Oakland 0 – 2 (-3.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Oakland (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Oakland (WIN)

Jacksonville 1 – 1 (+3.5) @ Denver 2 – 0 (-3.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver (LOSS)

Carolina 1 – 1 (-4.0) @ Atlanta 0 – 2 (+4.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina (WIN)

New York Giants 0 – 2 (+3.5) @ Washington 2 – 0 (-3.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *New York Giants (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *New York Giants (WIN)

Dallas 2 – 0 (+3.0) @ Chicago 1 – 1 (-3.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Dallas (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Dallas (WIN)

Tennessee (+4.0) @ New Orleans (-4.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^New Orleans (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans (LOSS)

DAMN, I’M GOOD

Again, nothing to brag about this week.

THE PICKS
* – Indicates Upset Pick
$ – Indicates Money Pick
^ – Indicates Zen Pick

SUNDAY

Baltimore 2 – 1 (-4.5) @ Cleveland 1 – 2 (+4.5)
Well, sometimes when things aren’t going right, you’ve gotta throw in a curve ball or two. And that is what I’m doing here. While I think Baltimore has an excellent team, they have looked very average early this season, especially on offense. Cleveland plays Baltimore tough historically, and with the home crowd behind them, I’m feeling an upset here. Baltimore gets caught sleeping in a stunner here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Cleveland

Chicago 1 – 2 (-3.0) @ Detroit 2 – 1 (+3.0)
Grossman is finally out, and 2006’s best NFC team faces 2006’s worst NFC team. Have things changed so much in just one offseason that the spread should only be a field goal? I don’t think so.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago

Green Bay 3 – 0 (-2.0) @ Minnesota 1 – 2 (+2.0)
As tough as Minnesota has played Green Bay over the years in Minnesota, this team is just steam rolling right now, and I can’t pick against them at only -2.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

Houston 2 – 1 (-3.0) @ Atlanta 0 – 3 (+3.0)
Houston is definitely the better team here, and I was leaning towards them… but something about the Falcons being underdogs at home for two straight weeks just doesn’t sit right for me. I’m also not buying the spread being only 3 points because “people don’t believe in Houston yet”… I’ve heard nothing but good things about the Texans all over the media. All of the reasons that make Houston too easy of a pick are exactly why I’m going the other way.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Atlanta

New York Jets 1 – 2 (-3.5) @ Buffalo 0 – 3 (+3.5)
That .5 might come back to haunt me, but I think this Jets team is a step above the Bills. Besides that, I still don’t believe the Bills can actually put points on the board.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New York Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Jets

Oakland 1 – 2 (+4.0) @ Miami 0 – 3 (-4.0)
Oakland has been very close in all 3 games they’ve played. They lost the first two they should have won, and then won last week when they should have lost. At the very least, they will keep it close; but Culpepper getting his revenge and the team being extra pumped to prove Joey Porter’s guarantee wrong leaves me picking the Raiders straight up for an absurd 4th straight week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Oakland

St. Louis 0 – 3 (+13.0) @ Dallas 3 – 0 (-13.0)
St. Louis’s offense has to wake up eventually. Might be this week, but no way I’m taking my chances against this Cowboys team at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

Seattle 2 – 1 (-2.0) @ San Francisco 2 – 1 (+2.0)
Definitely one of the tougher games to pick on the schedule this week. Could easily go either way, but I’m feeling Seattle, so I’m going that way.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle

Tampa Bay 2 – 1 (+3.0) @ Carolina 2 – 1 (-3.0)
Gruden’s got his team playing very well, and Carolina has looked very beatable all season. Carolina’s the pick here, but in this year’s crazy NFL, why not keep the madness going?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Tampa Bay

Denver 2 – 1 (+10.0) @ Indianapolis 3 – 0 (-10.0)
Denver is overrated, and could easily be 0 – 3 if it weren’t for some late game antics in their first two games. Indy has had a few tough games on the road against division opponents, and will gladly take the comfortable win this week back at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

Kansas City 1 – 2 (+12.0) @ San Diego 1 – 2 (-12.0)
Year in and year out, regardless of how good or bad each team is, these two teams play close games. Only two of their last 10 games have been decided by more then a 12 point difference; BOTH in Kansas City’s favor. So why should San Diego change that trend this week, when they are looking the worst they have in years?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

Pittsburgh 3 – 0 (-6.5) @ Arizona 1 – 2 (+6.5)
Pittsburgh has just looked outstanding, and I don’t think Arizona is the team that tests them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

Philadelphia 1 – 2 (-2.5) @ New York Giants 1 – 2 (+2.5)
The Eagles are a much better team, and they should definitely win this game. That said, of all the games on the schedule this week, for some reason the Giants just struck me as a winner. Can’t go against your gut, even when you are losing.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *New York Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *New York Giants

MONDAY

New England 3 – 0 (-8.0) @ Cincinnati 1 – 2 (+8.0)
The Patriot’s defense hasn’t been tested by a passing offense anything like the Bengals’ yet. While I still think they will win, I see it being a shootout right to the end.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 16 – 14 – 0 (.533)

5 picks from Saturday! View them here; http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BK40nNvAUb4

1. Purdue (-22.0) over Notre Dame (LOSS)
2. Purdue/Notre Dame OVER 54 (LOSS)

3. Hawaii (-25.0) over Idaho (WIN)

4. Oklahoma (-23.0) over Colorado (LOSS)

5. Troy (-13.5) over Louisiana-Monroe (WIN)

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Questions? Comments? Suggestions? Ideas?
Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
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MY TEAM’S RECORDS
OAKLAND RAIDERS: 1 – 2 – 0
USC TROJANS: 4 – 0 – 0
LOS ANGELES KINGS: 1 – 0 – 0 – 0

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DavesDime.com by Dave Consolazio