Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

I’ve read plenty about things like what happened last weekend.

“Everyone has weekends where they go 0 – 8 or 0 – 9. The key is to not let it get to you. You have to keep your confidence that you can still pick winners and put the past behind you. You can’t let it linger and let it affect the way you pick games.”

Much, much, much easier said than done.

I went 1 – 9 – 2 against the spread last weekend, and a stunning 2 – 10 without the spread. Factor in my 0 – 5 college picks, and I had a 1 – 14 – 2 football record; by far the worst I’ve ever had.

As if that isn’t bad enough on its own, I share these picks – and put my pride on the line – for over 100 readers.

Put it behind me? It is all I can think about! Does working a job that I hate 40 hours a week affect my mood/handicapping? (Yes…) Was I too cocky after my 10 – 4 week? (Maybe…), What should/could I have done differently?

And regardless of all that, is there any excuse for that kind of record? (No no no no).

A big part of me wanted to quit doing the Dime, stop embarrassing myself… but I know how much I would miss it.

And a part of me would like to think that you would miss it, too.

So onward I march. Now 9 games below .500 on the season, will I continue to slip, or will I make a comeback?

And the most epic question of all; who other than me cares?!?

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 2 – 9 – 2 (.182)
Without the spread: 3 – 10 – 0 (.300)
^^Zen Picks^^: 1 – 0 – 0 (1.000)
**Outright Upsets**: 0 – 6 – 0 (.000)

Season
With the spread: 36 – 45 – 8 (.444)
Without the spread: 51 – 38 – 0 (.573)
^^Zen Picks^^: 8 – 1 – 1 (.889)
**Outright Upsets**: 9 – 16 – 0 (.360)

LAST WEEK’S RECAP OF DAVE’S BRILLIANCE AND FOOLISHNESS
(Usually Foolishness)

Cincinnati 1 – 3 (-3.0) @ Kansas City 2 – 3 (+3.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati (TIE)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati (LOSS)

Houston 3 – 2 (+6.5) @ Jacksonville 3 – 1 (-6.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Houston (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Houston (LOSS)

Miami 0 – 5 (+4.5) @ Cleveland 2 – 3 (-4.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Miami (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Miami (LOSS)

Minnesota 1 – 3 (+5.0) @ Chicago 2 – 3 (-5.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago (LOSS)

Philadelphia 1 – 3 (-3.5) @ New York Jets 1 – 4 (+3.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *New York Jets (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *New York Jets (LOSS)

St. Louis 0 – 5 (+9.0) @ Baltimore 3 – 2 (-9.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Baltimore (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore (WIN)

Tennessee 3 – 1 (+3.0) @ Tampa Bay 3 – 2 (-3.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Tennessee (TIE)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Tennessee (LOSS)

Washington 3 – 1 (+3.0) @ Green Bay 4 – 1 (-3.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Washington (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Washington (LOSS)

Carolina 3 – 2 (+5.5) @ Arizona 3 – 2 (-5.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona (LOSS)

New England 5 – 0 (-6.0) @ Dallas 5 – 0 (+6.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Dallas (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Dallas (LOSS)

Oakland 2 – 2 (+10.0) @ San Diego 2 – 3 (-10.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Oakland (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego (WIN)

New Orleans 0 – 4 (+6.0) @ Seattle 3 – 2 (-6.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle (LOSS)

New York Giants 3 – 2 (-3.5) @ Atlanta 1 – 4 (+3.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New York Giants (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Giants (WIN)

DAMN, I’M GOOD

Been an awfully lonely section this year…

THE PICKS
* – Indicates Upset Pick
$ – Indicates Money Pick
^ – Indicates Zen Pick

SUNDAY

Arizona 3 – 3 (+8.0) @ Washington 3 – 2 (-8.0)
Washington isn’t really a blow-out style team, but Arizona is just too beat up – and likely demoralized – to keep this a game. At home, Washington will score enough to cover this spread.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Washington

Atlanta 1 – 5 (+8.0) @ New Orleans 1 – 4 (-8.0)
Yes New Orleans looked great last week, but am I supposed to expect them to magically be back in 2006 form after just one game? I don’t think so. The quarterback change in Atlanta will definitely provide a spark. I love Atlanta +8, and I’ll even take them straight up in this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Atlanta

Baltimore 4 – 2 (-3.0) @ Buffalo 1 – 4 (+3.0)
This should be a terribly boring game, but it should end in a Baltimore victory. This is a tough defense for a rookie (Edwards) to face, and the McGahee-Returns-to-Buffalo side story only makes me like Baltimore more.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

New England 6 – 0 (-16.5) @ Miami 0 – 6 (+16.5)
In my opinion, the Patriots are going to steamroll the Dolphins 45 – 10, just like they’ve steam rolled ever other team they’ve faced this year. My “Zen” side though sees so many reasons to pick Miami; the undefeated VS. winless angle, the public-loves-the-invincible-offense angle. Seeing as my un-Zen picks are 39% this year and my Zen picks are 89%, which way would you go?!?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

San Francisco 2 – 3 (+9.0) @ New York Giants 4 – 2 (-9.0)
San Fran is a popular pick +9 this week, as everyone is waiting for the Giants to have a let down game. It won’t be this week though – it’ll be next week against the Dolphins. Why do I sound so confident? Apparently I’m the authority on the Giants this year; I’m 6 – 0 against the spread in picking their 6 games this year!
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New York Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Giants

Tampa Bay 4 – 2 (+2.0) @ Detroit 3 – 2 (-2.0)
Tampa Bay’s defense should be able to contain Detroit’s offense at least enough to let Jeff Garcia score at will on the Lions’ terrible defense.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Tampa Bay

Tennessee 3 – 2 (-1.5) @ Houston 3 – 3 (+1.5)
If Vince Young plays, he won’t be 100%, and he needs to be in order to be effective. If he doesn’t play, no contest really. Either way, I’ve gotta take the Texans in this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Houston

Kansas City 3 – 3 (+2.5) @ Oakland 2 – 3 (-2.5)
I’ve gone back and forth on this one. After LT’s performance, I have to expect similar from LJ… but then I remind myself that the Bengals have one of the worst defenses in the league, and the Raiders have a pretty solid one. Plus it is in Oakland. The Raiders did hang with the Chargers and had they made a few better decisions it could have been a much better game. We’ll know who the better team is soon enough; but for now, I have to take my team.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Oakland

New York Jets 1 – 5 (+6.0) @ Cincinnati 1 – 4 (-6.0)
No way the leagues worst defense should be giving up 6 points to ANYONE, even the Jets. I’ll give Cinci the benefit of the doubt and say they will win the game – but not by much.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *New York Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati

Chicago 2 – 4 (+5.5) @ Philadelphia 2 – 3 (-5.5)
Two serious underachievers, it is hard to feel comfortable either way; but Chicago’s once heralded defense is now more of a sieve than anything else, and Philly should be able to win this one. I see it being close though, so I will take the 5.5.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

Minnesota 2 – 3 (+9.5) @ Dallas 5 – 1 (-9.5)
Dallas’s run defense should be tough enough to stop Adrian Peterson, but much more notably, Minnesota’s secondary will have absolutely no answer to Tony Romo and the passing offense.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

St. Louis 0 – 6 (+8.5) @ Seattle 3 – 3 (-8.5)
Seattle just hasn’t been dominant enough this year for me to feel comfortable giving up this many points, especially with Bulger returning to action this week. I doubt they will give another winless team their first win this week, though.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle

Pittsburgh 4 – 1 (-3.5) @ Denver 2 – 3 (+3.5)
Pittsburgh may not be too strong on the road, but Denver has just looked awful this season; even in both of their wins. 3.5 really shouldn’t be any trouble at all.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

MONDAY

Indianapolis 5 – 0 (-3.0) @ Jacksonville 4 – 1 (+3.0)
The Jaguars defense has been simply outstanding, and them being at home as well makes them a perfect upset pick. But honestly, who have they stopped this year? 21st ranked Tennessee, 27th ranked Denver, 28th ranked Kansas City, and 29th ranked Atlanta. The only decent offense they’ve faced was Houston’s, but they were missing their biggest offensive weapon in Andre Johnson. If they can hold Indy this week I’ll be a believer, but I have to tag them as overrated for the time being.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

AVERAGE JOE THEORY

Going on my theory that Vegas always wins, if you always bet the exact opposite of Average Joe, wouldn’t you end up a winner? Average Joe is the football fan that doesn’t crunch numbers or anything, just knows the teams and picks what looks good/easy to him. In other words, Vegas’s perfect target.

I want to try to channel in to Average Joe and make all the picks I think he would make. If he picks around 50/50, I don’t have an angle. But if he picks 45% winners… betting against him would definitely be a profitable affair. If he does better than I do consistently, I can just “become him”. So lets find out how “he” does this year.

((From now on, Average Joe will only pick games he has an opinion on instead of every game on the schedule.))

Last Week: 8 – 4 – 0
Season: 8 – 4 – 0

Average Joe’s Picks:
DAL (-9.5) – “Best in the NFC against weak Minnesota”
NE (-16.5) – “Best team ever, probably going to go undefeated!”
PIT (-3.5) – “Denver sucks and Big Ben and the Steelers have looked great.”
IND (-3.0) – “No way Jacksonville can stop Peyton on Monday night!”

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 20 – 25 – 0 (.444)

5 picks from Saturday! View them here; http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V5NPHXEk9j0

1. Arkansas (-5.0) over Ole Miss (WIN)

2. Notre Dame (+18.0) over USC (LOSS)

3. California (-2.0) over UCLA (LOSS)

4. Ohio State (-19.0) over Michigan State (LOSS)

5. Oregon (-13.0) over Washington (WIN)

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