Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

13 games under .500 against the spread.

13 games over .500 straight up.

Whoops.

To fade someone’s picks means to bet against them each week.

What better time then now?

You’d be picking a whopping 56.8% winners!

I don’t know what the deal with this year is. I think the biggest problem for me is that since everything has settled down, underdogs are not competing nearly as hard as they usually do.

Oh well. Remember the Patriots won the Super Bowl in 2001, 2003, and 2004. They made the playoffs in ’05 and ’06.

They flat out missed the playoffs in 2002.

Even the best have an off-year.

(Of course, this insinuates I am in some way shape or form affiliated with the “best”…)

Lets see if I can turn things around this week and get back some respectability.

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 5 – 9 – 0 (.357)
Without the spread: 7 – 7 – 0 (.500)
^^Zen Picks^^: 0 – 1 – 0 (.000)
**Outright Upsets**: 0 – 3 – 0 (.000)

Season
With the spread: 41 – 54 – 8 (.432)
Without the spread: 58 – 45 – 0 (.563)
^^Zen Picks^^: 8 – 2 – 1 (.800)
**Outright Upsets**: 9 – 19 – 0 (.321)

LAST WEEK’S RECAP OF DAVE’S BRILLIANCE AND FOOLISHNESS
(Usually Foolishness)

Arizona 3 – 3 (+8.0) @ Washington 3 – 2 (-8.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Washington (WIN)

Atlanta 1 – 5 (+8.0) @ New Orleans 1 – 4 (-8.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Atlanta (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Atlanta (LOSS)

Baltimore 4 – 2 (-3.0) @ Buffalo 1 – 4 (+3.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore (LOSS)

New England 6 – 0 (-16.5) @ Miami 0 – 6 (+16.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Miami (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England (WIN)

Tampa Bay 4 – 2 (+2.0) @ Detroit 3 – 2 (-2.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Tampa Bay (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Tampa Bay (LOSS)

Tennessee 3 – 2 (-1.5) @ Houston 3 – 3 (+1.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Houston (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Houston (LOSS)

Kansas City 3 – 3 (+2.5) @ Oakland 2 – 3 (-2.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Oakland (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Oakland (LOSS)

New York Jets 1 – 5 (+6.0) @ Cincinnati 1 – 4 (-6.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *New York Jets (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati (WIN)

Chicago 2 – 4 (+5.5) @ Philadelphia 2 – 3 (-5.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Chicago (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia (LOSS)

St. Louis 0 – 6 (+8.5) @ Seattle 3 – 3 (-8.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *St. Louis (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle (WIN)

Pittsburgh 4 – 1 (-3.5) @ Denver 2 – 3 (+3.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh (LOSS)

Indianapolis 5 – 0 (-3.0) @ Jacksonville 4 – 1 (+3.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis (WIN)

DAMN, I’M GOOD

San Francisco 2 – 3 (+9.0) @ New York Giants 4 – 2 (-9.0)
San Fran is a popular pick +9 this week, as everyone is waiting for the Giants to have a let down game. It won’t be this week though – it’ll be next week against the Dolphins. Why do I sound so confident? Apparently I’m the authority on the Giants this year; I’m 6 – 0 against the spread in picking their 6 games this year!
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New York Giants (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Giants (WIN)
– Make that 7 – 0. Without Giants games my year would REALLY be in trouble.

Minnesota 2 – 3 (+9.5) @ Dallas 5 – 1 (-9.5)
Dallas’s run defense should be tough enough to stop Adrian Peterson, but much more notably, Minnesota’s secondary will have absolutely no answer to Tony Romo and the passing offense.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas (WIN)
– Romo 31/39, Peterson only 63 yards.

THE PICKS
* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Zen Pick

SUNDAY

Cleveland 3 – 3 (-3.0) @ St. Louis 0 – 7 (+3.0)
Home field advantage isn’t always meaningful in the NFL, but in this game it is everything. The Rams have put up double digit points in all 3 of their home games compared to single digit points in all 4 of their road games. Margins of defeat at home; 14 (this game was close and only broke away late), 1, and 3. On the road? 21, 28, 19, 27. Cleveland, meanwhile, is 3 – 0 at home and 0 – 3 on the road. If this game were in Cleveland, I would take the Browns -9.5. But here in St. Louis? I’m taking the Rams to get their first win of the season.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *St. Louis

Detroit 4 – 2 (+5.0) @ Chicago 3 – 4 (-5.0)
I just can’t warrant taking Chicago, who’s defense simply hasn’t been very good this year, against one of the league’s most explosive (and confident) offenses.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Detroit

Indianapolis 6 – 0 (-7.0) @ Carolina 4 – 2 (+7.0)
This could easily be a trap game, and the Colts are not a very strong road team, but there is no way I can seriously take a Vinny Testaverde run offense against the league’s best passing defense. Carolina hasn’t faced a team like this yet, and should be taken care of by Peyton and the gang easily enough.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

New York Giants 5 – 2 (-10.0) @ Miami 0 – 7 (+10.0)
I put my 7 – 0 Giant game record on the line here with a prediction I made 3 weeks ago; the Dolphins will win this game outright. Of course, in 3 week’s time, its been made clear to me just how bad this team is, and losing their best offensive weapon doesn’t help, either. As such, I have to back off on calling the straight up upset; but I do believe that the Giants’ hot streak may suffer a bit from the travel, and the Dolphins will keep it close.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Giants

Oakland 2 – 4 (+7.0) @ Tennessee 4 – 2 (-7.0)
The Raiders have been living and dying by the run all season, and against the league’s best rushing defense, they’ll probably do a bit more dying. Factor in the home field and the return of Vince Young, and the Titans should have a double digit win on their hands.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee

Philadelphia 2 – 4 (-1.0) @ Minnesota 2 – 4 (+1.0)
Really just a question of what McNabb will show up, but in what should be an ugly game, I’ll take my chances on the Eagles moving the ball against the awful Minnesota secondary.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

Pittsburgh 4 – 2 (-4.0) @ Cincinnati 2 – 4 (+4.0)
Cinci wins a shootout against the Jets, and now they are only a 4 point underdog here? Wow. If this is a trap, I’ll spring it, because Pittsburgh should walk all over Cinci in this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

Buffalo 2 – 4 (+3.0) @ New York Jets 1 – 6 (-3.0)
The Jets have done nothing at all to get excited about this year, and couldn’t even win comfortably against the pitiful Dolphins at home. Have to like the better team with the points in this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Buffalo

Houston 3 – 4 (+9.5) @ San Diego 3 – 3 (-9.5)
I was figuring that the fires would effect the Chargers as their heads won’t be completely in the game, and practice hasn’t exactly been convenient this week. But I’ve decided that once the flow of the game gets going, instincts will take over, and the Chargers will win this one convincingly.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

Jacksonville 4 – 2 (+4.0) @ Tampa Bay 4 – 3 (-4.0)
This game is just destined to be a defensive struggle decided by a field goal, and as much as I like Tampa Bay to win it, it should stay super close. Even without Garrard, the Jags should be able to pound away with the rush on offense and create a few turnovers on defense to keep this one close.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay

New Orleans 2 – 4 (-3.0) @ San Francisco 2 – 4 (+3.0)
The return of Alex Smith should give SF a much needed emotional (and skill) boost, and I think the 49ers rise to the occasion and pick up the win in this one. Remember, this isn’t the 2006 Saints team we all fell in love with.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *San Francisco

Washington 4 – 2 (+16.0) @ New England 7 – 0 (-16.0)
I refuse to accept that this team is perfect and completely indestructible, no matter what the stats and media might tell me. Washington is 8th in the league in passing defense, 3rd in points per game against, and 5th in total yards against. Couple all this with the Pats looking ahead to the Indianapolis game next week and we should have our first bump in the road…… shouldn’t we?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

MONDAY

Green Bay 5 – 1 (+3.0) @ Denver 3 – 3 (-3.0)
Denver looked great against Pittsburgh last week, and while their rushing defense is still very susceptible, they have more than just home field going for them this week; they have the fact that Green Bay doesn’t run the ball well enough to exploit that weakness. Denver takes care of business at home on Monday night.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver

AVERAGE JOE THEORY

Going on my theory that Vegas always wins, if you always bet the exact opposite of Average Joe, wouldn’t you end up a winner? Average Joe is the football fan that doesn’t crunch numbers or anything, just knows the teams and picks what looks good/easy to him. In other words, Vegas’s perfect target.

I want to try to channel in to Average Joe and make all the picks I think he would make. If he picks around 50/50, I don’t have an angle. But if he picks 45% winners… betting against him would definitely be a profitable affair. If he does better than I do consistently, I can just “become him”. So lets find out how “he” does this year.

Last Week: 3 – 1 – 0
Season: 11 – 5 – 0

Average Joe’s Picks:
STL (+3.0) – “Jackson returning, in St. Louis, they are due!”
IND (-7.0) – “Vinny Testeverde VS. Peyton Manning, need I say more?”
NYG (-10.0) – “Dolphins SUCK, Giants will tear them apart.”
NO (-3.0) – “New Orleans is back, and San Fran is garbage.”
NE (-16.0) – “Patriots = Best team ever”
GB (+3.0) – “You are GIVING me points to take Favre?!?”

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 25 – 29 – 0 (.463)

9 picks from Saturday! View them here; http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eJap-SsiqgM

1. Wake Forest (-5.5) over North Carolina (WIN)

2. Kentucky (-14.0) over Mississippi State (LOSS)

3. West Virginia (-6.0) over Rutgers (WIN)

4. USC (+3.0) over Oregon (LOSS)

5. Kansas (-3.0) over Texas A&M (WIN)

6. Troy (-5.0) over Arkansas State (WIN)

7. Duke (+17.5) over Florida State (LOSS)

8. Houston (-6.0) over Texas El Paso (LOSS)

9. Hawaii (-29.0) over New Mexico State (WIN)

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