Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

The 9th week.

Then God said, “Let there be a game bigger than the Super Bowl could ever dream of being, a battle of titans, an epic battle of undefeateds, a preview of the inevitable AFC Championship game.” And so it was.

Too much? Maybe. But then, every time I turn on the TV these days, I certainly feel like I’m about to see something of biblical proportions this Sunday.

As such, under THE PICKS, I will have a pretty in-depth look at the game… but for those of you not satisfied, I will have an extra section called SUPER BOWL XLI 1/2 with even more info on the game (all of this copied and pasted from an argument I had with someone on a betting forum about this game)

Yeah, I hang out in online betting forums. I never claimed to be cool.

And if I did, I was either drunk or joking.

Probably both.

Lets see if I can string together two straight winning weeks here to chip away some more at my gargantuan win defect.

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 8 – 5 – 0 (.615)
Without the spread: 9 – 4 – 0 (.692)
^^Zen Picks^^: 0 – 0 – 0 (N/A)
**Outright Upsets**: 2 – 2 – 0 (.500)

Season
With the spread: 49 – 59 – 8 (.454)
Without the spread: 67 – 49 – 0 (.578)
^^Zen Picks^^: 8 – 2 – 1 (.800)
**Outright Upsets**: 11 – 21 – 0 (.333)

LAST WEEK’S RECAP OF DAVE’S BRILLIANCE AND FOOLISHNESS
(Usually Foolishness)

Cleveland 3 – 3 (-3.0) @ St. Louis 0 – 7 (+3.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *St. Louis (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *St. Louis (LOSS)

Detroit 4 – 2 (+5.0) @ Chicago 3 – 4 (-5.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Detroit (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Detroit (WIN)

Indianapolis 6 – 0 (-7.0) @ Carolina 4 – 2 (+7.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis (WIN)

Oakland 2 – 4 (+7.0) @ Tennessee 4 – 2 (-7.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee (WIN)

Philadelphia 2 – 4 (-1.0) @ Minnesota 2 – 4 (+1.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia (WIN)

Pittsburgh 4 – 2 (-4.0) @ Cincinnati 2 – 4 (+4.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh (WIN)

Buffalo 2 – 4 (+3.0) @ New York Jets 1 – 6 (-3.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Buffalo (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Buffalo (WIN)

Jacksonville 4 – 2 (+4.0) @ Tampa Bay 4 – 3 (-4.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Jacksonville (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay (LOSS)

New Orleans 2 – 4 (-3.0) @ San Francisco 2 – 4 (+3.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *San Francisco (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *San Francisco (LOSS)

Washington 4 – 2 (+16.0) @ New England 7 – 0 (-16.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Washington (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England (WIN)

Green Bay 5 – 1 (+3.0) @ Denver 3 – 3 (-3.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver (LOSS)

DAMN, I’M GOOD

New York Giants 5 – 2 (-10.0) @ Miami 0 – 7 (+10.0)
I put my 7 – 0 Giant game record on the line here with a prediction I made 3 weeks ago; the Dolphins will win this game outright. Of course, in 3 week’s time, its been made clear to me just how bad this team is, and losing their best offensive weapon doesn’t help, either. As such, I have to back off on calling the straight up upset; but I do believe that the Giants’ hot streak may suffer a bit from the travel, and the Dolphins will keep it close.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Giants
– How do you go 8 – 0 on a team?!?

Houston 3 – 4 (+9.5) @ San Diego 3 – 3 (-9.5)
I was figuring that the fires would effect the Chargers as their heads won’t be completely in the game, and practice hasn’t exactly been convenient this week. But I’ve decided that once the flow of the game gets going, instincts will take over, and the Chargers will win this one convincingly.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego
– 35-point first half helps.

THE PICKS
* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Zen Pick

SUNDAY

Arizona 3 – 4 (+3.5) @ Tampa Bay 4 – 4 (-3.5)
No one knows what to expect from either of these teams, but one thing I’ve learned the hard way this year is that Arizona never says die. I don’t think Tampa Bay has what it takes to keep a never-say-die team down, even at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Arizona

Carolina (+4.5) @ Tennessee 5 – 2 (-4.5)
Tennessee has been playing with fire all season, yet they somehow always come out on top. Law of averages says they are due for some of these bounces to start going against them; and I have a feeling it’ll be this week. I like Carolina to win outright; I LOVE Carolina with the 4.5.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Carolina

Cincinnati 2 – 5 (-1.0) @ Buffalo 3 – 4 (+1.0)
Cincinnati’s biggest problem all year has been their awful defense… but even they should be able to give Carson the chance to win against a very quiet Buffalo offense.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati

Denver 3 – 4 (+3.0) @ Detroit 5 – 2 (-3.0)
Denver’s secondary may be good on paper, but this team is just bad. Detroit has been winning games all year doing whatever they have to do; and a team that gives wins away like Denver does isn’t going to stop them this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Detroit

Green Bay 6 – 1 (+2.5) @ Kansas City 4 – 3 (-2.5)
Kansas City is the only team that Brett Favre has never beat. Crazy, isn’t it? I could really go either way on this game and think it is pretty much a coin flip; and in coin flip situations, you’ve gotta go with the home team.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Kansas City

Jacksonville 5 – 2 (+3.5) @ New Orleans 3 – 4 (-3.5)
Tough game, but I’ve got to go with New Orleans. They appear to be back on track, and Jacksonville can’t possibly win two straight road games with David Gray under center.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

San Diego 4 – 3 (-7.0) @ Minnesota 2 – 5 (+7.0)
Going out on a limb here, but I think this is the week that the Chargers human sides kick in. The emotional effects of the fires have to be lingering, and traveling cross country away from friends and family is going to get to these guys. Minnesota’s strong rush defense will at least give them a fighting chance, and I am taking them to pull the upset here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *^Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Minnesota

San Francisco 2 – 5 (+3.0) @ Atlanta 1 – 6 (-3.0)
Hard to believe Atlanta is the favorite against anyone, but they deserve to be at home against one of this season’s biggest disappointments. The 49ers can’t get anything going at all on offense; and their defense hasn’t been good enough to make that okay.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

Washington 4 – 3 (-3.5) @ New York Jets 1 – 7 (+3.5)
It’d be nice if Kellen Clemens gave the Jets a much needed spark at home to beat the Redskins; but I wouldn’t bet on it. Washington will be looking for a strong showing after last week’s embarrassment.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Washington

Seattle 4 – 3 (+1.0) @ Cleveland 4 – 3 (-1.0)
Never thought I’d be taking Cleveland in this spot, but they have been excellent at home, and Seattle has been quite mediocre this season.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cleveland

Houston 3 – 5 (+3.0) @ Oakland 2 – 5 (-3.0)
“You can go through all the statistics you want, play fantasy football and draft whoever you want. At the end of the day it’s turnover ratio that decides football games.” Ex-Raider Coach Jon Gruden summed it up perfectly here; with turnover-machine Josh McCown back under center, the Raiders should fall in this one. I hope Jamarcus and his agent are happy; if they hadn’t been so stingy, he’d be starting VERY soon.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Houston

New England 8 – 0 (-6.0) @ Indianapolis 7 – 0 (+6.0)

Team A Scores: 34, 34, 38, 38, 38, 48, 49, 52 (41.4)
Team A Win Margin: 17, 21, 21, 21, 24, 24, 31, 45 (25.5)

Team B Scores: 22, 29, 30, 31, 33, 38, 41 (32)
Team B Win Margin: 31, 2, 6, 18, 19, 22, 24 (17.4)

Team A or Team B?

And what makes people think the Colts can keep up with this offense?

The Patriots have crushed (by 17+) the 2nd (Dallas), 4th (Cleveland), 6th (Cincinnati), and 8th (San Diego) highest scoring offenses in the league.

The Colts have only played one team in the top 10 in the league in scoring; the Texans (10th). And that was WITHOUT Andre Johnson! They only won by 6!

I LOVE the Colts and HATE the Patriots but I’m not letting that blind me into thinking the Colts have a shadow of a chance!

*More on this game in SUPER BOWL XLI 1/2 below.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

Dallas 6 – 1 (-3.0) @ Philadelphia 3 – 4 (+3.0)
There really shouldn’t be any way that Philadelphia can keep up with Dallas’s offense, even with the home crowd behind them. Dallas will have to beat themselves to lose here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

MONDAY

Baltimore 4 – 3 (+9.5) @ Pittsburgh 5 – 2 (-9.5)
I agree this is a mismatch, and that Baltimore has had a disappointing season to date, but I just don’t see this division rivalry game being this easy for Pittsburgh. They should win, but not by the comfortable 10 points this spread suggests.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

SUPER BOWL XLI 1/2

A few more things to clear up…

A) “The only thing that those numbers prove are that Belichick runs the score up more than Dungy.”

Oh really? First of all, before I even show you any numbers, I’d like to argue that “running up the score” isn’t always as bad as people make it seem. Obviously in the Redskins game, that was running up the score. But in the NFL, I have seen on more than one occasion a team score 21 points in a 5 minute span at the end of the game (TD, 3 and out, TD, onside, TD). Giving yourself a comfortable lead is not the same thing as running up the score.

Week 1: the Pats tacked on 10 4th quarter points to a 14 point lead heading into the 4th quarter… but then the Colts tacked on 17 4th quarter points to a 14 point lead heading into the 4th.

Week 2: Pats up 24 – 0 at the half, score a TD in the 3rd and 4th in response to SD TDs in the 3rd and 4th.

Week 3: Pats take a 10 point lead into the half, add 14 3rd quarter points and finish up a 3rd quarter drive in the 4th quarter for another 7 (10 mins left in the game), then don’t score again.

Week 4: New England only up 14 when they score their last TD with 6 mins left on Cinci. I think thats still a reasonable time to score.

Week 5: 20 – 0 lead at half on Cleveland, no scoring in the 3rd, then 2 TDs to respond to 2 Cleveland TDs in the 4th (plus 2nd TD actually a 15 yard fumble recovery for a TD)

Week 6: Pats up 14 at the end of the game, score en route to running out the clock in closing seconds (7 plays, 5 runs, 2 passes were one short one for a loss of 2 and one to keep the drive alive on 3rd down)

Week 7: Pats take a 42 – 0 1st half lead, score 7 unnecessary points in the 4th… but this could have been a 60 or 70 point effort if the Patriots wanted it to be.

Week 8: Patriots run up the score on the Redskins.

The ONLY game I see any misconduct on the part of the Patriots is the Washington game. Then again, if Belichick was a respected coach, instead of hearing “un-classy” we’d be hearing “sending a message”. But whatever. The Patriots average 10.75 4th quarter points per game to the Colts 8.14 4th quarter per game, which is right on par with the regular outscoring. And trust me, I don’t think the Colts put up 0 against the Titans and only 3 against the Texans in the 4th ON PURPOSE.

B) “Cowboys were 5 point underdogs hosting the Pats a few weeks ago. Now Indy is 5 point dogs in at home, same as Dallas. Something is very wrong with this line, unless you think Dallas is every bit as good as the Colts.”

False. Most people will agree that the Colts are a better team then the Cowboys. But lets take a look at the scores to that point in the season:

Dallas 45 – New York 35
Dallas 37 – Miami 20
Dallas 34 – Chicago 10
Dallas 35 – St. Louis 7
Dallas 25 – Buffalo 24 (Crazy game as you know)

So to this point in the season, we didn’t know how bad the teams they beat (besides the Giants) were going to be, and this team looked pretty damn good and deserved the respect of being among the top in the league (and still do at 6 – 1).

1 month later, we have seen the Patriots onslaught continue and have come to realize this may be one of the great teams ever assembled. If they played Dallas THIS week, Dallas would be much more than a 5 point underdog. You can’t use spreads from a month ago to draw equal signs. A LOT of things change in a month. Including realization of just how real this team is.

C) “Playing the numbers game only works in fantasy football. I don’t care if Cincy is the 6th ranked offense in the NFL, they still suck.”

Yes, they suck, but not on offense. I’m not trying to argue that they are on par with the Colts; my point is simply that if you take the league average of points per game (21), the Patriots have played 4 teams with higher, while the Colts have only played one.

Isn’t it possible – just possible – that one of the reasons the Colts defense has looked so good is that it hasn’t really been tested?

AVERAGE JOE THEORY

Going on my theory that Vegas always wins, if you always bet the exact opposite of Average Joe, wouldn’t you end up a winner? Average Joe is the football fan that doesn’t crunch numbers or anything, just knows the teams and picks what looks good/easy to him. In other words, Vegas’s perfect target.

I want to try to channel in to Average Joe and make all the picks I think he would make. If he picks around 50/50, I don’t have an angle. But if he picks 45% winners… betting against him would definitely be a profitable affair. If he does better than I do consistently, I can just “become him”. So lets find out how “he” does this year.

Last Week: 4 – 2 – 0
Season: 15 – 7 – 0

Average Joe’s Picks:
DET (-3.0) – “Denver is awful, it is in Detroit.”
SD (-7.0) – “Great team against weak Minnesota”
NE/IND OVER 57 – “38 – 35 at least!”

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 30 – 31 – 0 (.492)

7 picks from Saturday! View them here; http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MTiKn1hRQUQ

1. Clemson (-16.5) over Duke (WIN)

2. Kansas (-20.5) over Nebraska (WIN)

3. Troy (+16.5) over Georgia (WIN)

4. Cincinnati/South Florida UNDER 50.5 (LOSS)

5. Missouri (-3.5) over Colorado (WIN)

6. Arizona State/Oregon UNDER 61 (WIN)

7. Boston College (-6.5) over Florida State (LOSS)

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