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By Dave Consolazio, September 28, 2007 10:00 am

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Well this isn’t any fun.

It is always difficult to get out of a slump, because losing this badly gets into your head, and effects the way you pick the games. Once your confidence is shaken, it is hard to get it back.

This has been an odd year so far to say the least. Look no further than the RB position; was anyone expecting Lamont Jordan to be the best RB in the AFC West by a mile? His 350 rushing yards are 2nd in the league, compared to Travis Henry’s 302 (4th), Larry Johnson’s 140 (30th?!?) and Ladanian Tomlinson’s 130 (33rd!?!!)

I’m not making any excuses. But in a season still to young to crunch the numbers on, intuition is critical; and winners just aren’t jumping off the page at me.

I’ve done away with “Money Picks” for a few reasons. For one, I’ve been sucking at them. But more importantly, you shouldn’t overvalue games in the NFL. It is nearly impossible to consistently pick winners in the NFL… so way make some of those wins less meaningful by doubling up the amount you are betting on other games? Choosing a specific amount you want to bet per game is much smarter than trying to select MONEY PICKS that are worth two or three times more to you.

Besides, I don’t want to spend all year trying to force it when a situation isn’t really a best bet just to get the statistic up.

Keep your fingers crossed for me this week!

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 4 – 9 – 3 (.308)
Without the spread: 10 – 6 – 0 (.625)
^^Zen Picks^^: 0 – 1 – 1 (1.000)
**Outright Upsets**: 2 – 3 – 0 (.400)

Season
With the spread: 17 – 25 – 6 (.405)
Without the spread: 29 – 19 – 0 (.604)
^^Zen Picks^^: 3 – 1 – 1 (.750)
**Outright Upsets**: 4 – 7 – 0 (.364)

LAST WEEK’S RECAP OF DAVE’S BRILLIANCE AND FOOLISHNESS
(Usually Foolishness)

Arizona 1 – 1 (+7.5) @ Baltimore 1 – 1 (-7.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore (WIN)

Buffalo 0 – 2 (+17.0) @ New England 2 – 0 (-17.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Buffalo (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England (WIN)

Detroit 2 – 0 (+5.5) @ Philadelphia 0 – 2 (-5.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia (WIN)

Indianapolis 2 – 0 (-6.5) @ Houston 2 – 0 (+6.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis (WIN)

Miami 0 – 2 (+3.0) @ New York Jets 0 – 2 (-3.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New York Jets (TIE)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Jets (WIN)

Minnesota 1 – 1 (+3.0) @ Kansas City 0 – 2 (-3.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Minnesota (TIE)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Minnesota (LOSS)

San Diego 1 – 1 (-5.5) @ Green Bay 2 – 0 (+5.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego (LOSS)

San Francisco 2 – 0 (+9.5) @ Pittsburgh (-9.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *San Francisco (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh (WIN)

St. Louis 0 – 2 (+4.0) @ Tampa Bay 1 – 1 (-4.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *St. Louis (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *St. Louis (LOSS)

Cincinnati 1 – 1 (+3.0) @ Seattle 1 – 1 (-3.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Cincinnati (TIE)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Cincinnati (LOSS)

Cleveland 1 – 1 (+3.0) @ Oakland 0 – 2 (-3.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Oakland (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Oakland (WIN)

Jacksonville 1 – 1 (+3.5) @ Denver 2 – 0 (-3.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver (LOSS)

Carolina 1 – 1 (-4.0) @ Atlanta 0 – 2 (+4.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina (WIN)

New York Giants 0 – 2 (+3.5) @ Washington 2 – 0 (-3.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *New York Giants (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *New York Giants (WIN)

Dallas 2 – 0 (+3.0) @ Chicago 1 – 1 (-3.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Dallas (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Dallas (WIN)

Tennessee (+4.0) @ New Orleans (-4.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^New Orleans (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans (LOSS)

DAMN, I’M GOOD

Again, nothing to brag about this week.

THE PICKS
* – Indicates Upset Pick
$ – Indicates Money Pick
^ – Indicates Zen Pick

SUNDAY

Baltimore 2 – 1 (-4.5) @ Cleveland 1 – 2 (+4.5)
Well, sometimes when things aren’t going right, you’ve gotta throw in a curve ball or two. And that is what I’m doing here. While I think Baltimore has an excellent team, they have looked very average early this season, especially on offense. Cleveland plays Baltimore tough historically, and with the home crowd behind them, I’m feeling an upset here. Baltimore gets caught sleeping in a stunner here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Cleveland

Chicago 1 – 2 (-3.0) @ Detroit 2 – 1 (+3.0)
Grossman is finally out, and 2006’s best NFC team faces 2006’s worst NFC team. Have things changed so much in just one offseason that the spread should only be a field goal? I don’t think so.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago

Green Bay 3 – 0 (-2.0) @ Minnesota 1 – 2 (+2.0)
As tough as Minnesota has played Green Bay over the years in Minnesota, this team is just steam rolling right now, and I can’t pick against them at only -2.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

Houston 2 – 1 (-3.0) @ Atlanta 0 – 3 (+3.0)
Houston is definitely the better team here, and I was leaning towards them… but something about the Falcons being underdogs at home for two straight weeks just doesn’t sit right for me. I’m also not buying the spread being only 3 points because “people don’t believe in Houston yet”… I’ve heard nothing but good things about the Texans all over the media. All of the reasons that make Houston too easy of a pick are exactly why I’m going the other way.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Atlanta

New York Jets 1 – 2 (-3.5) @ Buffalo 0 – 3 (+3.5)
That .5 might come back to haunt me, but I think this Jets team is a step above the Bills. Besides that, I still don’t believe the Bills can actually put points on the board.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New York Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Jets

Oakland 1 – 2 (+4.0) @ Miami 0 – 3 (-4.0)
Oakland has been very close in all 3 games they’ve played. They lost the first two they should have won, and then won last week when they should have lost. At the very least, they will keep it close; but Culpepper getting his revenge and the team being extra pumped to prove Joey Porter’s guarantee wrong leaves me picking the Raiders straight up for an absurd 4th straight week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Oakland

St. Louis 0 – 3 (+13.0) @ Dallas 3 – 0 (-13.0)
St. Louis’s offense has to wake up eventually. Might be this week, but no way I’m taking my chances against this Cowboys team at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

Seattle 2 – 1 (-2.0) @ San Francisco 2 – 1 (+2.0)
Definitely one of the tougher games to pick on the schedule this week. Could easily go either way, but I’m feeling Seattle, so I’m going that way.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle

Tampa Bay 2 – 1 (+3.0) @ Carolina 2 – 1 (-3.0)
Gruden’s got his team playing very well, and Carolina has looked very beatable all season. Carolina’s the pick here, but in this year’s crazy NFL, why not keep the madness going?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Tampa Bay

Denver 2 – 1 (+10.0) @ Indianapolis 3 – 0 (-10.0)
Denver is overrated, and could easily be 0 – 3 if it weren’t for some late game antics in their first two games. Indy has had a few tough games on the road against division opponents, and will gladly take the comfortable win this week back at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

Kansas City 1 – 2 (+12.0) @ San Diego 1 – 2 (-12.0)
Year in and year out, regardless of how good or bad each team is, these two teams play close games. Only two of their last 10 games have been decided by more then a 12 point difference; BOTH in Kansas City’s favor. So why should San Diego change that trend this week, when they are looking the worst they have in years?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

Pittsburgh 3 – 0 (-6.5) @ Arizona 1 – 2 (+6.5)
Pittsburgh has just looked outstanding, and I don’t think Arizona is the team that tests them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

Philadelphia 1 – 2 (-2.5) @ New York Giants 1 – 2 (+2.5)
The Eagles are a much better team, and they should definitely win this game. That said, of all the games on the schedule this week, for some reason the Giants just struck me as a winner. Can’t go against your gut, even when you are losing.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *New York Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *New York Giants

MONDAY

New England 3 – 0 (-8.0) @ Cincinnati 1 – 2 (+8.0)
The Patriot’s defense hasn’t been tested by a passing offense anything like the Bengals’ yet. While I still think they will win, I see it being a shootout right to the end.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 16 – 14 – 0 (.533)

5 picks from Saturday! View them here; http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BK40nNvAUb4

1. Purdue (-22.0) over Notre Dame (LOSS)
2. Purdue/Notre Dame OVER 54 (LOSS)

3. Hawaii (-25.0) over Idaho (WIN)

4. Oklahoma (-23.0) over Colorado (LOSS)

5. Troy (-13.5) over Louisiana-Monroe (WIN)

————————————————————-
Questions? Comments? Suggestions? Ideas?
Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
SEND ME FEEDBACK!

MY TEAM’S RECORDS
OAKLAND RAIDERS: 1 – 2 – 0
USC TROJANS: 4 – 0 – 0
LOS ANGELES KINGS: 1 – 0 – 0 – 0

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By Dave Consolazio, September 21, 2007 10:00 am

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

I guess as a guy that never catches a break, I shouldn’t be too surprised that the weekend I spent in Vegas would be one of the oddest in years, and a complete betting disaster.

Lost in the midst of former Trojan OJ Simpson’s arrest, only 3 favorites covered the spread. Yes. 13 of the 16 favorites this week did not cover. 12 losses, 1 tie.

And that was just against the spread. 7 of the 12 favorites that lost against the spread lost outright, too. Indy was lucky they didn’t. The Broncos had to pull a terribly cheap trick not to, and that was against the Josh McCown led Raiders for God’s sake.

In any case, this week teaches us 3 very important lessons.

1. THIS IS A PROFESSIONAL SPORT. Yes, some teams are much, much better than others. But these athletes are the best in the world at their sport. The term “Any Given Sunday”, later made into a terrible movie starring Al Pacino, was coined for a reason. It is true; on any given Sunday, team A can beat team B. There is a reason why the best sports bettors in the world only pick 60% winners against the spread.

2. VEGAS KNOWS, YOU DON’T, AND I DON’T. The idea of a spread is to get even betting, 50% for one team, 50% for the other. It isn’t necessarily how pro bookies think the game is going to go. It is simply a matter of getting both halves of the betting public about even, and collecting the extra dollar on the losers (since you are betting 11 to win 10).

So what happens when a fan favorite (New Orleans) is going against a league dud (Tampa Bay), and the line looks terribly easy?

If it were New Orleans -9.0, bets on both sides would be about even. But New Orleans -4.0? 80+% of the betting public is taking New Orleans.

Do you really think Vegas would just give away free money to that many people? No way. They knew something about this match-up was favorable for the Buccaneers, and they knew that the public would bite, and bite hard.

Does that mean every time a line looks off, the “off team” will win? No, not every time… But pretty damn often.

3. EVERY TIME I MAKE A MONEY PICK, WHICH LOOKS LIKE A SURE THING, IT NEVER SEEMS TO WIN, EVER. What I’m… never mind. This one is self explanatory.

Cheers to the Steelers, Patriots, and Cowboys for covering the damn spread.

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 5 – 10 – 1 (.333)
Without the spread: 8 – 8 – 0 (.500)
$$Money Picks$$: 0 – 5 – 0 (.000)
^^Zen Picks^^: 2 – 0 – 0 (1.000)
**Outright Upsets**: 1 – 2 – 0 (.333)

Season
With the spread: 13 – 16 – 3 (.448)
Without the spread: 19 – 13 – 0 (.598)
$$Money Picks$$: 1 – 5 – 0 (.167)
^^Zen Picks^^: 3 – 0 – 0 (1.000)
**Outright Upsets**: 2 – 4 – 0 (.333)

LAST WEEK’S RECAP OF DAVE’S BRILLIANCE AND FOOLISHNESS
(Usually Foolishness)

Atlanta 7 0 – 1 (+10.0) @ Jacksonville 13 0 – 1 (-10.0)
Wow, what a thriller this one was. (Yawn)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN Jacksonville

Buffalo 3 0 – 1 (+9.5) @ Pittsburgh 26 1 – 0 (-9.5)
Can’t wait to see Pittsburgh play a GOOD team.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS *Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN Pittsburgh

Cincinnati 45 1 – 0 (-7.0) @ Cleveland 51 0 – 1 (+7.0)
Cinci had better hope this pathetic defensive performance was an anomaly…
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS $Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS Cincinnati

Green Bay 35 1 – 0 (+2.0) @ N.Y. Giants 13 0 – 1 (-2.0)
Love him or hate him, Favre’s run has certainly been impressive.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN *Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN *Green Bay

Houston 34 1 – 0 (+6.5) @ Carolina 21 1 – 0 (-6.5)
Carr wasn’t bad, but Schaub is actually GOOD.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS Carolina

Indianapolis 22 1 – 0 (-7.0) @ Tennessee 20 1 – 0 (+7.0)
Stats be damned, Vince Young can play football.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS $Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN Indianapolis

New Orleans 14 0 – 1 (-4.0) @ Tampa Bay 31 0 – 1 (+4.0)
My preseason prediction that this year’s Saints team wouldn’t be as good as last year’s (despite being pretty much the same team) looks to be right so far.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS $New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS New Orleans

San Francisco 17 1 – 0 (+3.0) @ St. Louis 16 0 – 1 (-3.0)
San Fran is picking up ugly wins, but wins are wins. When they actually start clicking, they will be even more dangerous.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS St. Louis

Dallas 37 1 – 0 (-4.0) @ Miami 20 0 – 1 (+4.0)
One of the only games I was nervous about went exactly as it should have.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN Dallas

Minnesota 17 1 – 0 (+3.0) @ Detroit 20 1 – 0 (-3.0)
Easily could have gone either way, so why would it go my way?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: TIE *Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS *Minnesota

Seattle 20 1 – 0 (-3.0) @ Arizona 23 0 – 1 (+3.0)
Arizona coughs up the lead, but then actually pulls out a win. Last year’s team didn’t find ways to do that.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS $Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS Seattle

Kansas City 10 0 – 1 (+12.0) @ Chicago 20 0 – 1 (-12.0)
Boring…
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS $Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN Chicago

N.Y. Jets 13 0 – 1 (+11.0) @ Baltimore 20 0 – 1 (-11.0)
Also boring…
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN Baltimore

Oakland 20 0 – 1 (+10.0) @ Denver 23 1 – 0 (-10.0)
If Culpepper were starting, the Raiders would very likely be 2 – 0 right now.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN ^*Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS *Oakland

San Diego 14 1 – 0 (+4.0) @ New England 38 1 – 0 (-4.0)
Cheaters or not, they are still pretty good. As for Norv Turner… what a joke.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN ^New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN New England

Washington 20 1 – 0 (+7.0) @ Philadelphia 12 0 – 1 (-7.0)
Donovan, black or white, if you play poorly and lose, you are going to get criticized.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN *Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS Philadelphia

DAMN, I’M GOOD

The Raider game should be here, but a few bad passes by McCown and a cheap trick by Mike Shanahan leaves this section empty this week.

THE PICKS
* – Indicates Upset Pick
$ – Indicates Money Pick
^ – Indicates Zen Pick

I’m a little gun shy after last week’s disastrous picks… but pick I must.

SUNDAY

Arizona 1 – 1 (+7.5) @ Baltimore 1 – 1 (-7.5)
While Arizona did pick up an impressive win last week, heading into a very tough Baltimore crowd as well as the return of Steve McNair will likely be a bit more than they can handle.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

Buffalo 0 – 2 (+17.0) @ New England 2 – 0 (-17.0)
Come on now. This is the NFL! Didn’t we learn anything from last week? Even if New England “should” win this game 42 – 3, I will take any NFL team at +17.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

Detroit 2 – 0 (+5.5) @ Philadelphia 0 – 2 (-5.5)
I don’t know which would surprise me more, Detroit at 3 – 0, or Philadelphia at 0 – 3? Neither is happening this week when Philly puts a game together for the first time this season.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

Indianapolis 2 – 0 (-6.5) @ Houston 2 – 0 (+6.5)
With Andre Johnson in the lineup, I was all over Houston keeping this one close. Without him, the Texans simply down have the weapons to keep up with the Colts. I’ll take the defending champs at under a touchdown any day of the week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

Miami 0 – 2 (+3.0) @ New York Jets 0 – 2 (-3.0)
The Jets haven’t looked good, but playing New England and Baltimore will do that to you. At home against a team they always beat, you have to love them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New York Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Jets

Minnesota 1 – 1 (+3.0) @ Kansas City 0 – 2 (-3.0)
The Chiefs simply haven’t shown me anything that would lead me to believe that are beating anyone any time soon. Even at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Minnesota

San Diego 1 – 1 (-5.5) @ Green Bay 2 – 0 (+5.5)
San Diego hasn’t looked that great, and Green Bay has been quite impressive. That said, San Diego is still one of the AFC’s elite; and I know a certain someone who is overdue on a 100+ yard, 3 touchdown day.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

San Francisco 2 – 0 (+9.5) @ Pittsburgh (-9.5)
San Francisco keeps being pesky and stealing wins, Pittsburgh keeps blowing teams out. Who cracks first? I say San Francisco gives Pittsburgh a bit of a test this week… but it really is a toss up.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

St. Louis 0 – 2 (+4.0) @ Tampa Bay 1 – 1 (-4.0)
Last week was a serious aberration on what this Tampa Bay team is really capable of. St. Louis will not fall to 0 – 3; they will move the ball efficiently and win this game without much difficulty.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $*St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *St. Louis

Cincinnati 1 – 1 (+3.0) @ Seattle 1 – 1 (-3.0)
“If Derrick Anderson can pass for 5 TDs, imagine what Hasslebeck will do!” Ehh, this one looks too easy. Cinci’s defense will step it up big after being ridiculed all week and find a way to contain the Seahawks. And if they don’t? Palmer’s arm gives you a shot every week anyways.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Cincinnati

Cleveland 1 – 1 (+3.0) @ Oakland 0 – 2 (-3.0)
As much as I hate that Josh McCown is starting over Daunte Culpepper and as much as I dislike picking the Raiders for 3 straight weeks, I really have no choice here. They are the better team, at home, and they are going to win this game. Unless, of course, McCown gives it away… AGAIN.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Oakland

Jacksonville 1 – 1 (+3.5) @ Denver 2 – 0 (-3.5)
In what should be a terribly boring game, the Broncos owe it to their fans to win this one by at least a TD after the close call against Oakland last week. Besides, Jacksonville’s offense isn’t exactly explosive.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver

Carolina 1 – 1 (-4.0) @ Atlanta 0 – 2 (+4.0)
This is one of those games that scare me, seeing as this is Atlanta’s home opener… but I simply can’t bring myself to pick them if I’m only getting 4 points. Carolina really should be able to overcome the crowd and contain this pitiful offense.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina

New York Giants 0 – 2 (+3.5) @ Washington 2 – 0 (-3.5)
No stats here, just a gut feeling; the Giants put a good game together here and beat the Redskins.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *New York Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *New York Giants

Dallas 2 – 0 (+3.0) @ Chicago 1 – 1 (-3.0)
This one is tough. Chicago defense or Romo’s arm? After putting up 37 on a pretty tough Miami defense on the road, I have to give the Cowboys the benefit of the doubt and say they can keep the good times rolling this week. That, and I just don’t trust Chicago’s offense.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Dallas

MONDAY

Tennessee (+4.0) @ New Orleans (-4.0)
Toughest game of the week in my opinion, so I guess it is fitting its Monday night. The Titans have established themselves as one of the NFL’s toughest teams to play against week in and week out; Vince Young and Jeff Fischer both deserve a lot of credit for that. I’ve come to hate picking against them; but I have no choice here. The Saints have been completely embarrassed for two straight weeks, and have looked absolutely terrible. Now in their home opener they must win to avoid a horrific 0 – 3 start, and they must win convincingly to boost the team and fan morale. It’ll be tough, but if this team can’t man up and put together a great effort for a strong win in this game, then they aren’t going to have the character to put together much of a season down the stretch. I have to believe the offense wakes up for Monday night.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 14 – 11 – 0 (.560)

5 picks from Saturday! View them here; http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKFBJ4sKsQ4

1. LSU (-18.0) over South Carolina (LOSS)
2. Michigan State (-11.0) over Notre Dame (WIN)

3. Cincinnati (-24.0) over Marshall (WIN)

4. Oregon State (+11.5) over Arizona State (LOSS)

5. Oregon (-17.0) over Stanford (WIN)

————————————————————-
Questions? Comments? Suggestions? Ideas?
Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
SEND ME FEEDBACK!

MY TEAM’S RECORDS
OAKLAND RAIDERS: 0 – 2 – 0
USC TROJANS: 3 – 0 – 0
LOS ANGELES KINGS: 0 – 0 – 0 – 0

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By Dave Consolazio, September 14, 2007 10:00 am

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Allright, its about time I fess up…

I record games on TiVo. I then watch these games and study both teams to try and give myself an unfair advantage when picking winners each week.

I guess I’m no better the Brian Belichick, who records his opponents’ defensive schemes to give himself an unfair advantage to help his team win huh?

Ok, I’m sorry, I had to get my shot in… I’ve hated the Patriots since the infamous “tuck rule” that catapulted this whole dynasty in what should have been the Raiders’ year.

In all seriousness, I think this scandal is going to have very little effect on the Patriots, and they will still have a 12 to 14 win season and be among the best in the AFC right up there with IND and SD.

But wouldn’t it be awesome – and this is still the Pats-hater in me – if the Pats go 6 – 10 this year with no key injuries and completely miss the playoffs, pretty much proving 100% that they’ve been cheating this whole time?

That’d be awesome.

Still doesn’t explain how they got the refs on their side for the tuck rule call though…

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 8 – 6 – 2 (.571)
Without the spread: 11 – 5 – 0 (.688)
$$Money Picks$$: 1 – 0 – 0 (1.000)
^^Zen Picks^^: 1 – 0 – 0 (1.000)
**Outright Upsets**: 1 – 2 – 0 (.333)

Season
With the spread: 8 – 6 – 2 (.571)
Without the spread: 11 – 5 – 0 (.688)
$$Money Picks$$: 1 – 0 – 0 (1.000)
^^Zen Picks^^: 1 – 0 – 0 (1.000)
**Outright Upsets**: 1 – 2 – 0 (.333)

LAST WEEK’S RECAP OF DAVE’S BRILLIANCE AND FOOLISHNESS
(Usually Foolishness)

New Orleans 10 (+6.0) @ Indianapolis 41 (-6.0)
Any surprise this team won the Super Bowl?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN Indianapolis

Kansas City 3 (+3.0) @ Houston 20 (-3.0)
If this is what we should expect from Kansas City this year, the Raiders won’t be the worst team in the AFC West.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS *Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS *Kansas City

Denver 15 (-3.0) @ Buffalo 14 (+3.0)
Thoughts and prayers go out to Kevin Everett and his friends and family. Hopefully recent reports that he may walk again turn out to be true.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN Denver

Pittsburgh 34 (-5.0) @ Cleveland 7 (+5.0)
Is Pittsburgh this good, or Cleveland this bad? Might be a bit of both, but one thing is for sure – Cleveland is this bad.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN $Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN Pittsburgh

Carolina 27 (+1.0) @ St. Louis 13 (-1.0)
Hold on to the ball Steven!
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS St. Louis

Philadelphia 13 (-3.0) @ Green Bay 16 (+3.0)
If I didn’t know better, I’d say Philadelphia WANTED to lose this game.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS Philadelphia

Miami 13 (+3.0) @ Washington 16 (-3.0)
About as good a game as these two teams could give you.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: TIE Washington

New England 38 (-6.5) @ New York Jets 14 (+6.5)
Easy to win when you cheat, isn’t it? (Sorry, it is too easy)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN New England

Tampa Bay 6 (+6.0) @ Seattle 20 (-6.0)
No surprises here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN Seattle

Chicago 3 (+6.0) @ San Diego 14 (-6.0)
Great game for San Diego… this really is an excellent team.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN San Diego

Detroit 36 (+1.5) @ Oakland 21 (-1.5)
Oakland played better than this score looks. To their credit though, Detroit’s offense looks great.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS Oakland

New York Giants 35 (+6.0) @ Dallas 45 (-6.0)
Losing the game, losing Jacobs and Manning, along with showing gaping holes on defense, this is about as bad an opener as the Giants could have possibly had.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN Dallas

Baltimore 20 (+3.0) @ Cincinnati 27 (-3.0)
Great game, crazy finish.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS *Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS *Baltimore

Arizona 17 (+3.0) @ San Francisco 20 (-3.0)
And these two are supposed to be improved. Yikes.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: TIE San Francisco

DAMN, I’M GOOD

Atlanta 3 (+3.0) @ Minnesota 24 (-3.0)
Joey Harrington starting at quarterback for the Atlanta Falcons. Do I really, possibly have to say anything more than that?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN Minnesota
- Nope, looks like I didn’t.

Tennessee (+6.5) @ Jacksonville (-6.5)
I think Tennessee is going to have a pretty bad team this year, having lost Bennett and Henry, and Vince Young is a prime candidate for a huge sophomore slump. That being said, I think after an entire offseason of Pacman Jones drama, this team is as focused and ready to play some football more than just about anyone else out there. Couple this with the fact that Jacksonville let go of Leftwich so close to the beginning of the season, and this one just might be that big upset this weekend.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN ^*Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN *Tennessee
- Not bad huh?

THE PICKS
* – Indicates Upset Pick
$ – Indicates Money Pick
^ – Indicates Zen Pick

Later on in the season, spreads that seem “off” tend to scare me, because it probably means the bookies know something we don’t. It is smart to be aware of this, but it is also smart to know a value when you see one. This early in the season, some of these spreads are just too nice to pass up on, even if they won’t all be winners…

SUNDAY

Atlanta 0 – 1 (+10.0) @ Jacksonville 0 – 1 (-10.0)
All I can say is; this is going to be a long, long season for Falcons fans. And you thought the offseason was bad…
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Jacksonville

Buffalo 0 – 1 (+9.5) @ Pittsburgh 1 – 0 (-9.5)
Pittsburgh looked great, but playing against Cleveland (who a. sucks and b. is a team who’s number you have had for years) will do that for you. Buffalo is one of those teams that are just tough to play against week in and week out. Wouldn’t be shocked by a Pittsburgh blowout, but a win in the single-digit area seems a lot more likely to me.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

Cincinnati 1 – 0 (-7.0) @ Cleveland 0 – 1 (+7.0)
Seven points, huh? These are the types of games I love to put money on. I either win and get to laugh about what easy money it was, or lose and I get to whine and complain about how there was ABSOLUTELY NO WAY THAT SHOULD HAVE HAPPENED.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati

Green Bay 1 – 0 (+2.0) @ N.Y. Giants 0 – 1 (-2.0)
Not even factoring in all of the injuries, that Giants secondary just looked terrible against the Cowboys. Look for Green Bay to get off to an unexpected 2 – 0 start to get the season rolling.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Green Bay

Houston 1 – 0 (+6.5) @ Carolina 1 – 0 (-6.5)
Houston looked great last week, but at home against the Chiefs and on the road against the Panthers are two very different beasts. Still need to see a few more good games out of Houston to legitimize them – Carolina, on the other hand, I’m comfortable legitimizing right now.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina

Indianapolis 1 – 0 (-7.0) @ Tennessee 1 – 0 (+7.0)
Here is a fun fact. Since 11/19/06, Tennessee is 7 – 1 against the spread and 7 – 1 without it in regular season play, compared to the Colts who are 3 – 5 against the spread and 3 – 5 without it in that same time frame. Fascinating isn’t it? Here is another fun fact; the Colts are going to win this game by more than 28 points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

New Orleans 0 – 1 (-4.0) @ Tampa Bay 0 – 1 (+4.0)
Need some money? Bet this game and the one right above it. Any edge that Tampa Bay may have had due to it being their home opener is completely negated by the fact that the Saints were totally embarrassed on prime time national television last Thursday night. This week, they will be the ones doing the embarrassing.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

San Francisco 1 – 0 (+3.0) @ St. Louis 0 – 1 (-3.0)
An ugly win for the 49ers and an ugly loss for the Rams last weekend brings us to this game, which really could go either way. I’m expecting some fireworks in this game, as well as some great rushing from two of the best in the game… but when push comes to shove (er, push comes to pass), St. Louis should prevail.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: St. Louis

Dallas 1 – 0 (-4.0) @ Miami 0 – 1 (+4.0)
Of all the off-spread games, this one makes me the most nervous. How much of Dallas’s 45 points and Romo’s brilliance attributed to the Giant defense? Miami is not a good team, but they are still great on defense, which always makes them an upset waiting to happen. I’m taking Dallas, but not putting too much faith in it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

Minnesota 1 – 0 (+3.0) @ Detroit 1 – 0 (-3.0)
The Lions did look great on offense, yes, but it was the Raiders’ mistakes – 3 turnovers and 3 missed field goals – that led to great field position and points. I expect Minnesota to play a bit more disciplined and find a way to win. Besides, the Vikings have won 14 of the last 15 games these teams have played, including 10 straight. And they are the underdog. I’ll take my chances.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Minnesota

Seattle 1 – 0 (-3.0) @ Arizona 0 – 1 (+3.0)
Seems no matter what they do, Seattle doesn’t get any respect among the betting public. That’s fine by me… these spreads are a gift I’ll keep on taking.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle

Kansas City 0 – 1 (+12.0) @ Chicago 0 – 1 (-12.0)
With only one weapon, the Chiefs will have trouble doing anything at all against the Bears’ defense. And while 12 points may seem like a lot for a Grossman offense, on field position battle and defense alone, the Bears will win this one comfortably. VERY comfortably.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago

N.Y. Jets 0 – 1 (+11.0) @ Baltimore 0 – 1 (-11.0)
One of the toughest games on the schedule this week for me at this spread, especially with McNair potentially out. I can see this being a good game, but the fact that the Ravens are 5 – 0 against the spread in their last 5 against the Jets, plus the fact that the Jets may be starting a young QB for the first time in a very hostile environment, I guess I have to take the Ravens to win by 2+ TDs, even though I’m not extremely comfortable doing so.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

Oakland 0 – 1 (+10.0) @ Denver 1 – 0 (-10.0)
I saw something I haven’t seen in the Raiders in about 5 years last Sunday; passion. WR core looked great, O line looked better, Lamont Jordan looked great, defense was screwed over by consistently being given terrible field position to work with. Despite the yardage he put up, I thought Josh McCown was a pretty glaring weakness. This week, it will be Daunte Culpepper. The Broncos’ offense looked containable against the Bills, and I believe the Raiders’ defense will have a much easier time containing them then they did the Lions.

(Say it ain’t so, Dave… you aren’t really going to pick against the Broncos here are you? The Raiders have lost 7 of their last 8 games against the Broncos, and are 2 – 10 against them in their last 12 in Denver. You wouldn’t be this much of a homer and make this stupid of a pick, would you?)

First of all, I’m no homer… I’m very aware of the fact that the Raiders suck and in fact picked against them (even when they had the points, which was pretty much every game) 10 of their 16 games last year. I don’t pick the team I like better, I pick the team that is going to win the ball game.

And in my first big upset stunner of the year, this defensive struggle is going Oakland’s way.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Oakland

San Diego 1 – 0 (+4.0) @ New England 1 – 0 (-4.0)
I was leaning towards San Diego in this game, simply because of how great they look, but all that gets thrown out of the window thanks to the media this week. After an entire week of hearing what a bunch of phonies and fakes and cheaters and losers they are, do you really think this team is going to let ANYONE come into their home stadium and beat them? Not a chance.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

MONDAY
Washington 1 – 0 (+7.0) @ Philadelphia 0 – 1 (-7.0)
Still expect Washington to suck and Philly to have a good season… but after Washington’s good game and the Eagles’ debacle last week, the Redskins have earned themselves my pick for at least this week. With the points, that is…
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 2 – 3 – 0 (.400)

10 picks this week! View them here; http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iin3lRHqfeE

————————————————————-
Questions? Comments? Suggestions? Ideas?
Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
SEND ME FEEDBACK!

Comments Off

By Dave Consolazio, September 6, 2007 10:00 am

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

((I spend a lot of time typing this up every week, mainly for the enjoyment of my readers. If you are receiving this email, it is because I feel like you will have a good time reading it. This is not meant to be spam mail. You will only receive 1 email from me a week. If you want to be taken off the list, let me know… but its much better for my pride if you just delete it every week and let me think that you kinda care. Thanks!))

Bread and Butter.

Peanut Butter and Jelly.

Raiders and Losing.

DAVE’S DIME and FOOTBALL.

Some things just go together oh-so-smoothly, and in David Consolazio’s imaginary world, I add my column and football onto that elite list. To some of you (maybe like 4 of you?), the Dime is an important and fun part of every week. To some of you (15?), the Dime is something you will tolerate because of our friendship. Others (38) simply skim, while still others (113) just delete as soon as they receive. And, of course, a couple of you (568) are still wondering who the hell I am.

To recap/refresh/inform, each week I will be picking the winners of the week’s games with and without the spread, and giving witty/boring/in-depth/absurd commentary as to why I believe what I do. You don’t have to be a football fan to enjoy this. Or you may be a football fan and NOT enjoy it. That’s the great thing about reading, you just never know! (Actually, that’s the sucky thing about reading, which is why I don’t read much. But I probably shouldn’t be broadcasting that…)

The first week of the year is virtually always a crap shoot. I don’t have any stats to crunch (Preseason? PRESEASON? You kidding me?), so I’m most inclined to just pick favorites. Of course most favorites haven’t really found their “groove” yet, so they are more likely to be upset. See the predicament I find myself in?

So whether you are a Dime veteran or a Dime rookie, hopefully you enjoy my return! And remind yourself often; it is free. That’s really my excuse for everything.

“Your picks suck!” – True, but they are free.
“Your column sucks!” – True, but it is free.
“You suck!” – True, but… wait, that’s not very nice!

THE RECORD
2006 Season
With the spread: 126 – 121 – 9 (.510)
Without the spread: 154 – 102 – 0 (.602)
$$Money Picks$$: 27 – 30 – 1 (.474)
^^Zen Picks^^: 24 – 22 – 2 (.522)
**Outright Upsets**: 36 – 33 – 0 (.522)

2005 Season
With the spread: 138 – 111 – 7 (.554)
Without the spread: 167 – 89 – 0 (.652)
$$Money Picks$$: 33 – 22 – 5 (.600)
^^Zen Picks^^: 27 – 13 – 1 (.675)

This is the section where I list my total record as the season progresses.

With the spread: 0 – 0 – 0 (.000)
Without the spread: 0 – 0 – 0 (.000)
$$Money Picks$$: 0 – 0 – 0 (.000)
^^Zen Picks^^: 0 – 0 – 0 (.000)
**Outright Upsets**: 0 – 0 – 0 (.000)

With the Spread – I will explain in detail what the spread means for those of you who do not know in THE PICKS section.
Without the Spread – Who I pick to win the game, outright.
$$Money Picks$$ – Picks that I absolutely love. If you use my email as a gambling guide (God help you), these are the picks that I whole-heartedly endorse. There can be zero, five, or any other number of these a week, depending on the games. They will be pointed out with money signs ($).
^^Zen Picks^^ – Last year, I grabbed a book called “The Zen of Gambling”, which gives you a bunch of philosophical views on picking games that prove more often then not to actually work. A pick that I use a carrot symbol on (^) is one that I would have picked the other way if I weren’t “enlightened” by the Zen book.
**Outright Upsets** – When I take the underdog to not only cover the spread but to actually win the game, too. These picks will have a (*) next to them.

LAST WEEK’S RECAP OF DAVE’S BRILLIANCE AND FOOLISHNESS
(Usually Foolishness)

This is the section where I go over the results of the previous week, gloating about how smart I am when I get it right, or whining about how stupid the teams are when I get it wrong. Obviously the section empty this week, since no pro football was played.

DAMN, I’M GOOD

Here, on the once-in-a-lifetime occurrence that a pick is dead on, or I get a really crazy upset pick right, I will quote the previous week’s Dime, and point out how good I am. Classy? Absolutely not. But since when is classy in my repertoire?

THE PICKS

And where would we be without actually picking some winners?

*Here is the layout of my picks, and an explanation of how the spread works. Veteran readers can skip ahead to THE REAL THING!, but first timers or forgetful people should read on. Don’t worry if you’re confused at first, it will make sense as time goes on. Still, I’ll do my best to explain.*

TEAM ONE (+6.5) @ TEAM TWO (-6.5)
The team on the left side is always on the road, and the team on the right side is always at home. I will use this area to provide commentary as to why I’m picking who I’m picking. The number in parenthesis is called “The Spread”. This is how Las Vegas makes money. If you could bet on any two teams on an even playing field, you could always take the favorite, and you would win quite often. With the spread, things are evened out a bit. If you take the weaker team (in this case team one), you are going to be given X amount of points (in this case 6.5). So, lets say the final score to the game is “Team One” 7, “Team Two” 10. Team Two won the game, but not in Vegas terms. Add the 6.5 Vegas gave to Team One, and the score was “Team One” 13.5, “Team Two” 10. So, if you put money on Team Two, even though they won, they didn’t win by enough to “cover the spread” (which means outscore Team One with the extra points), so you lost money. So when you take the underdog (the team with the extra points), you add those points to their final total. If you take the favorite, you have to subtract number X from your total (So in the 10 – 7 game, minus 6.5, Team Two loses 3.5 – 7). The reason numbers usually have .5’s on them is so there can not be a tie. If you’re still confused, don’t worry, it’ll clear up. If you got it, well done!
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: TEAM TWO (-6.5)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: TEAM TWO (-6.5)

THE REAL THING!

* – Indicates Upset Pick
$ – Indicates Money Pick
^ – Indicates Zen Pick

Let me just say that this was an excellently scheduled week 1. Very evenly matched, should provide for some great football early.

THURSDAY

New Orleans (+6.0) @ Indianapolis (-6.0)
Home and season opener for the team that just won the Super Bowl. Hmm, I wonder if that crowd will be psyched? Pumped? Amped? Probably not……… New Orleans made great strides last year but it is important to remember that this is still a young team. And while they do possess an explosive offense, it doesn’t get a whole lot more explosive than Peyton Manning, does it? I’ll be very interested to see how the Saints respond to being a favorite this year, as opposed to last year, when they had no expectations at all. But that’s the big picture; in the small picture, the Colts win at home in what should be a blast of a game to watch.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

SUNDAY

Kansas City (+3.0) @ Houston (-3.0)
I’m not quite ready to jump on the Kansas City Sucks! Bandwagon. I mean, I hate them on a personal level, sure. But with Larry Johnson in the backfield, this team will always be a threat. Huard is no stud QB, but he has proven to be at least passable (no pun intended) at the position. In the tough AFC I don’t believe the Chiefs are a playoff team by any means, but they should be able to beat up on a few of the weaker teams around. Houston swapping Schaub for Carr doesn’t make the offensive line or the defense any better.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Kansas City

Denver (-3.0) @ Buffalo (+3.0)
Other than Pittsburgh, this is about as close to a lock this week as you are going to get. Buffalo is tough to play against at home, sure, but a simple equation (Terrible Offense VS. Excellent Defense = Trouble Scoring) makes me comfortable enough taking Denver in what should be a pathetic offensive showing all around.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver

Pittsburgh (-5.0) @ Cleveland (+5.0)
Charlie Frye was the smart albeit unpopular choice to make; Brady Quinn may have made the fans a little more excited, but let him get a feel for a few NFL games from the sidelines, first. The real question; does it matter? Pittsburgh has won 12 of the last 13 games they have played against this team, and have dominated them with and without the spread handily for years. Why should this year be any different?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

Tennessee (+6.5) @ Jacksonville (-6.5)
I think Tennessee is going to have a pretty bad team this year, having lost Bennett and Henry, and Vince Young is a prime candidate for a huge sophomore slump. That being said, I think after an entire offseason of Pacman Jones drama, this team is as focused and ready to play some football more than just about anyone else out there. Couple this with the fact that Jacksonville let go of Leftwich so close to the beginning of the season, and this one just might be that big upset this weekend.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Tennessee

Carolina (+1.0) @ St. Louis (-1.0)
Two teams I really need to see play a few games this year before I get a feel for them. I’ll take St. Louis for now though, since this offense just looks oh-so-deadly.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: St. Louis

Philadelphia (-3.0) @ Green Bay (+3.0)
I’m sorry, did I miss something? Last I checked, Philadelphia was pretty strong on both sides of the ball. Green Bay might have a decent season in the weak NFC, but Philly is one of the teams that will be tough to beat; and I think 3 points is an awfully soft spread.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

Atlanta (+3.0) @ Minnesota (-3.0)
Joey Harrington starting at quarterback for the Atlanta Falcons. Do I really, possibly have to say anything more than that?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Minnesota

Miami (+3.0) @ Washington (-3.0)
In my estimation, Miami is going to be a bad, bad football team this year. That’s right; two bad’s worth. Not that I think the world of Washington, but at home, this should be a pretty easy opener for them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Washington

New England (-6.5) @ New York Jets (+6.5)
The Patriots are not invincible, as the Colts exploited in the playoffs last year. Their once impeccable defense is now… umm… peccable. That being said, with their new and improved offense, they will, of course, be among the league’s elite this year as well. I liked the Jets’ run last season, but I can’t validate picking against the Pats before the season has begun.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

Tampa Bay (+6.0) @ Seattle (-6.0)
With the Rams, 49ers, and Cardinals all looking better these days, Seattle will have their work cut out for them this year. By this year, of course, I mean later this year. Tampa Bay is going to be just awful.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle

Chicago (+6.0) @ San Diego (-6.0)
In what was supposed to be the Super Bowl match-up last year, the Chargers will face off against the Bears and week 1. And in what would have been the result in the Super Bowl, the Chargers will win. Unfortunately for them, you don’t get a ring and everlasting glory for week 1.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

Detroit (+1.5) @ Oakland (-1.5)
All signs point to Detroit having a dangerous offense. That being said, amidst all the sucking the Raiders did last year, the defense – especially against the pass – has emerged as one of the league’s best. Tack on the seemingly improved offense, and the Raiders just might have a winning record for the first time in 14 years (well, it has felt that long anyways).
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Oakland

New York Giants (+6.0) @ Dallas (-6.0)
Thanks to Eli Manning, whenever I see “New York Giants” I just have to shake my head in disgust. I don’t believe Dallas is nearly as great as many people are saying they are, but they are certainly up to the task of winning this one big at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

MONDAY

Baltimore (+3.0) @ Cincinnati (-3.0)
When put on the spot, Baltimore has been my early pick to go all the way this year. Needless to say, I think pretty highly of them. I like the Bengals a lot, but the Baltimore D is just too fierce; especially if you are giving me points, too.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Baltimore

Arizona (+3.0) @ San Francisco (-3.0)
Tough one. Both teams look improved, and both could potentially do some damage this year. But until Arizona can show me that they can actually be comfortable with winning; instead of going out of their way to lose every week; I’ll have to keep picking against them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 0 – 0 – 0 (.000)

1. Michigan (-9.0) over Oregon

2. Texas Christian (+10.0) over Texas

3. Arizona State (-15.0) over Colorado

4. Hawaii (-28.0) over Louisiana Tech

5. Washington State (-14.0) over SD State
HONORABLE MENTION (0 – 0 – 0):

1. Nebraska (-8.5) over Wake Forest

2. Oregon State (-3.5) over Cincinnati

3. California (-14.0) over Colorado State

4. Penn State (-17.5) over Notre Dame

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Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!

Also check out my video predictions on youtube!
http://www.youtube.com/profile?user=kingsrule41

MY TEAM’S RECORDS
OAKLAND RAIDERS: 0 – 0 – 0
USC TROJANS: 1 – 0 – 0
LOS ANGELES KINGS: 0 – 0 – 0 – 0