Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

I’ve joined the ranks of Brett Favre and Roger Clemens.

Not in prestige, inevitable hall of fame bid, or anything like that.

Simply in my contemplating retirement and NOT walking away.

Thanks to those of you who took the time out of your mornings and afternoons to write messages of support to me. Really made me realize how many people are still reading and enjoying, and has totally given me a second wind.

To those of you that didn’t write, well, sorry to say your email boxes are going to keep getting filled with this garbage.

So to business; we’re at that time of year again where the way I eat for the other 364 days, which is usually considered disgusting, gluttonous, and out of control, is somehow NORMAL and ENCOURAGED on this day. For this merry holiday, I’m not the fat guy that is eating way too much; I’m a hero.

Last I checked, Vegas had the over/under on how much weight I would gain today at 8.5 pounds. Bet the OVER hard; this total is embarrassingly low and really insults my ability to pack it away.

So as you enjoy the football (especially USC/ASU!) this Thanksgiving, make sure you eat as much as you possibly can. It is nice to see I’m not the only one for a change!

(This issue only has my picks for the 3 games on Thursday. I will send out the rest of my picks along with the usual layout on Saturday night/Sunday morning.)

THURSDAY’S PICKS
* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Zen Pick

Green Bay 9 – 1 (-3.0) @ Detroit 6 – 4 (+3.0)
Sorry Kitna. Everyone was buying into the whole 10 win thing for a while there, but it seems that when you play team with talent, you fold.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

New York Jets 2 – 8 (+14.5) @ Dallas 9 – 1 (-14.5)
It may surprise some people to know that the Jets have not lost a game by 14+ points since week 1 against the Patriots. Even though they have been losing, they have kept games close. Since the QB change they have been playing better and have been staying in games, as was seen last week when they beat Pittsburgh. Dallas is on a short week after 3 straight divisional games, so they will be tired. They are probably also looking ahead to next week’s match up against Green Bay. Upset written all over it. My record be damned, if I pull this pick off, I’ll consider this a good football season.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*New York Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *New York Jets

Indianapolis 8 – 2 (-12.0) @ Atlanta 3 – 7 (+12.0)
Indianapolis’s struggles and Atlanta plays well, yet the spread is still 12 points. What does that tell you? Atlanta may look tempting to some, but an AFC powerhouse (injury-plagued or not) is not going into a bottom-rung NFC team’s house and keeping it close.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 39 – 40 – 0 (.494)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P8YY5_NsJ38

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Questions? Comments? Suggestions? Ideas?
Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
SEND ME FEEDBACK!

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Hey everyone, sorry I’ve got to keep it very, very short this week.

Had an awesome time in Vegas. Fortunately me and my girl were able to stay sober enough for the entire trip NOT to wake up married one of the mornings we were there. Then again, when her drink of choice is virgin daiquiris, I guess we were never in danger of getting her drunk, were we?

In any case, I return from Vegas and immediately restart my ongoing bout with uvulitis. Uvulitis (prepare to be grossed out here) is this random occurrence where your uvula (the dangly thing in the back of your throat) swells up to 3 to 5 times its normal size. This not only hurts, but also creates a sensation where you can’t really swallow, and you are kind of choking on your own throat. This condition just started popping up on me every now and then for the past few months, only for a day or two each time.

Too much irrelevant information you say? Maybe. But it is going somewhere…

After a painful Friday of uvulitis, I started my new job at Hollywood Park Casino on Saturday. I essentially just get paid to play cards all day. Very cool. However, after a very long week with very little sleep (and my one day to rest conquered by an engorged uvula), I am WAY too tired to stay up all night doing the Dime the proper way tonight. I know many of you read for my commentary more than my picks, but sadly I’ll just be stringing off one liners this week; I need to pass out for a few hours.

Please understand, and more importantly, please don’t take your well-behaving uvulas for granted.

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 9 – 7 – 0 (.563)
Without the spread: 10 – 6 – 0 (.625)
^^Zen Picks^^: 1 – 1 – 0 (.500)
**Outright Upsets**: 1 – 3 – 0 (.250)

Season
With the spread: 79 – 88 – 9 (.473)
Without the spread: 104 – 72 – 0 (.591)
^^Zen Picks^^: 10 – 4 – 2 (.714)
**Outright Upsets**: 16 – 31 – 0 (.340)

THE PICKS
* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Zen Pick

THURSDAY

Green Bay (+7.0) @ Dallas (-7.0)
Picked Dallas to win comfortably… didn’t know they needed Favre out to cover.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas (WIN)

SUNDAY

Atlanta (+3.0) @ St. Louis (-3.0)
Two very, very bad teams. St. Louis -3 looks about right, so I’ll take them at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: St. Louis

Buffalo (+6.0) @ Washington (-6.0)
Who cares? Washington wins by a late field goal.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Washington

Detroit (+4.0) @ Minnesota (-4.0)
So Minnesota has a great game against the Giants and now they can stop the pass? I’ll need to see it more than once to believe it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Detroit

Houston (+3.5) @ Tennessee (-3.5)
Tennessee has just disappointed me too much over the last few weeks, I’ve gotta go with the Texans here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Houston

Jacksonville (+7.0) @ Indianapolis (-7.0)
Jacksonville’s defense and mistake-free play earn them the upset in this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Jacksonville

N.Y. Jets (+1.5) @ Miami (-1.5)
When a spread looks very wrong, Vegas knows something you don’t.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Miami

San Diego (-6.0) @ Kansas City (+6.0)
San Diego should be able to contain Kansas City’s hurting offense with little difficulty.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

Seattle (+3.0) @ Philadelphia (-3.0)
I think Philly left it all on the field last week, and are due for a let down today.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Seattle

San Francisco (+3.0) @ Carolina (-3.0)
Can’t pick San Francisco… just can’t.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina

Cleveland (+1.0) @ Arizona (-1.0)
After the way Arizona blew the game last week, it is hard for me to pick them over the lovable Browns this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Cleveland

Denver (-3.5) @ Oakland (+3.5)
An Oakland upset wouldn’t totally surprise me… but that doesn’t mean I’m picking it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver

N.Y. Giants (-2.0) @ Chicago (+2.0)
I’ll assume last game was just a hiccup, and the Giants handle the Bears easily this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New York Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Giants

Tampa Bay (+3.5) @ New Orleans (-3.5)
Tampa Bay will find a way to beat the love-to-lose Saints in this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay

Cincinnati (+7.0) @ Pittsburgh (-7.0)
No idea what to expect from these two teams anymore… but I’ll assume the Steelers right the ship this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

MONDAY

New England (-20.0) @ Baltimore (+20.0)
So they looked human Monday night. Does that mean Baltimore stands a chance? Absolutely not.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 44 – 47 – 0 (.484)

5 picks from Saturday, view them here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gtWQGv9oCP0

1. Troy -15.5 over Florida Atlantic (LOSS)
2. BYU -16.0 over San Diego State (WIN)
3. Oregon State -1.0 over Oregon (WIN)
4. Hawaii -13.5 over Washington (LOSS)
5. Hawaii/Washington OVER 74 (LOSS)

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Questions? Comments? Suggestions? Ideas?
Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
SEND ME FEEDBACK

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

As I anxiously await my three day getaway to Las Vegas this Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, I am most overjoyed by one simple fact;

There won’t be any football to throw my money away on!

I’m so glad the Luxor offered me two free nights in the middle of the week instead of a weekend. They save me the trouble of breaking even on college football and then losing it all on pro football.

Instead, I can play games that give me a much better chance to win then my football picks have this year; the lotto, slots, and of course, flushing money down the toilet (at least you don’t have to bet 11 to win 10 in that game, you can save the $1!)

So keep your fingers crossed for me that blackjack, Hold’em, Pai Gow (poker, not those crazy tiles), hockey, and horse racing treat me well.

If not, at least I can continue the eating trend that Thanksgiving started!

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 11 – 5 – 0 (.688)
Without the spread: 13 – 3 – 0 (.813)
^^Zen Picks^^: 0 – 0 – 0 (N/A)
**Outright Upsets**: 2 – 2 – 0 (.500)

Season
With the spread: 70 – 81 – 9 (.464)
Without the spread: 94 – 66 – 0 (.588)
^^Zen Picks^^: 9 – 3 – 2 (.750)
**Outright Upsets**: 15 – 28 – 0 (.349)

LAST WEEK’S RECAP OF DAVE’S BRILLIANCE AND FOOLISHNESS
(Usually Foolishness)

Arizona 4 – 5 (+3.0) @ Cincinnati 3 – 6 (-3.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Arizona (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Arizona (WIN)

Carolina 4 – 5 (+9.5) @ Green Bay 8 – 1 (-9.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay (WIN)

Cleveland 5 – 4 (-2.5) @ Baltimore 4 – 5 (+2.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cleveland (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cleveland (WIN)

Kansas City 4 – 5 (+14.5) @ Indianapolis 7 – 2 (-14.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis (WIN)

Miami 0 – 9 (+9.5) @ Philadelphia 4 – 5 (-9.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia (WIN)

New Orleans 4 – 5 (+1.5) @ Houston 4 – 5 (-1.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston (WIN)

New York Giants 6 – 3 (-2.5) @ Detroit 6 – 3 (+2.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New York Giants (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Giants (WIN)

Oakland 2 – 7 (+5.0) @ Minnesota 3 – 6 (-5.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Oakland (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Oakland (LOSS)

San Diego 5 – 4 (-3.0) @ Jacksonville 6 – 3 (+3.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Jacksonville (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Jacksonville (WIN)

Tampa Bay 5 – 4 (-3.0) @ Atlanta 3 – 6 (+3.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay (WIN)

Pittsburgh 7 – 2 (-9.5) @ New York Jets 1 – 8 (+9.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *New York Jets (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh (LOSS)

Chicago 4 – 5 (+5.5) @ Seattle 5 – 4 (-5.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Chicago (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle (WIN)

St. Louis 1 – 8 (-3.0) @ San Francisco 2 – 7 (+3.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: St. Louis (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: St. Louis (WIN)

Washington 5 – 4 (+11.0) @ Dallas 8 – 1 (-11.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas (WIN)

New England 9 – 0 (-16.0) @ Buffalo 5 – 4 (+16.0)
Are you picking against the Pats?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England (WIN)

Tennessee 6 – 3 (+2.0) @ Denver 4 – 5 (-2.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Tennessee (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Tennessee (LOSS)

THE PICKS
* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Zen Pick

THURSDAY

Sucks that I actually had all three favorites circled, but went with the Jets because I figured there was no way that all 3 faves would actually cover the way this year has gone. I was semi-joking taking them straight up, but +14.5 I thought would be the day’s one cover. Of course I make the change and pick up a loss!

Green Bay 9 – 1 (-3.0) @ Detroit 6 – 4 (+3.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay (WIN)

New York Jets 2 – 8 (+14.5) @ Dallas 9 – 1 (-14.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*New York Jets (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *New York Jets (LOSS)

Indianapolis 8 – 2 (-12.0) @ Atlanta 3 – 7 (+12.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis (WIN)

SUNDAY

Buffalo 5 – 5 (+8.0) @ Jacksonville 7 – 3 (-8.0)
An already anemic Buffalo offense loses its sparkplug in Marshawn Lynch… really don’t see them putting up much of a fight in Jacksonville.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Jacksonville

Houston 5 – 5 (+3.5) @ Cleveland 6 – 4 (-3.5)
I know Cleveland is everyone’s feel good story, and they are definitely a solid team; but the reunited Matt Schaub / Andre Johnson connection is going to be too much for this secondary to handle.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Houston

Minnesota 4 – 6 (+7.0) @ New York Giants 7 – 3 (-7.0)
Adrian Peterson questionable or not, there is no way the Vikings are slowing down the Giants’ passing game in this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New York Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Giants

New Orleans 4 – 6 (-2.5) @ Carolina 4 – 6 (+2.5)
Tough one, but I’ve gotta go with New Orleans; Carolina just doesn’t have the QB at the moment to take advantage of New Orleans’ glaring weakness.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

Oakland 2 – 8 (+5.0) @ Kansas City 4 – 6 (-5.0)
Trust me, I know how bad this Raiders team is. It really pains me to pick them every single week; but the matchups always look so damn good. Terrible Chicago at home? Houston minus Andre Johnson? Vikings minus Adrian Peterson? Now Chiefs minus Johnson AND Holmes? I just can’t get away from this damn team. The game I pick against them is in TENNESSEE, where they cover. Man this team kills me.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Oakland

Seattle 6 – 4 (-3.0) @ St. Louis 2 – 8 (+3.0)
Another tough matchup with the Rams healthy and winning all of a sudden. All numbers point to a Seahawks victory here though; and when have the numbers ever let me down?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle

Tennessee 6 – 4 (-1.5) @ Cincinnati 3 – 7 (+1.5)
No matter how much talent Cincinnati has, I can not and will not consider picking them until they stop somebody… anybody…
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee

Washington 5 – 5 (+3.0) @ Tampa Bay 6 – 4 (-3.0)
I don’t know how he does it, but Jon “Chucky” Gruden has turned another injury laden mess into another winning football team. That trend should continue this week against a Redskins team that never seemed to recover from their Patriots loss.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay

San Francisco 2 – 8 (+10.5) @ Arizona 5 – 5 (-10.5)
This looks like an awful lot of points, but are you surprised? San Francisco has only 113 points for this season; that’s over 9 touchdowns worse than the Raiders. Ouch. And by the way, Arizona is fairly decent.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona

Baltimore 4 – 6 (+9.0) @ San Diego 5 – 5 (-9.0)
Another downright awful offense in Baltimore makes this spread very fair, despite San Diego’s terrible play; if Turner would just put the ball in LT’s hands and keep it out of Rivers’, the Chargers might find themselves winning football games again.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

Denver 5 – 5 (+2.0) @ Chicago 4 – 6 (-2.0)
Denver is finally starting to click and has looked pretty decent of late. Chicago is still pretty darn bad; no reason they should be the favorite here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Denver

Philadelphia 5 – 5 (+24.0) @ New England 10 – 0 (-24.0)
So you see 24, the biggest spread in over 20 years, and you think “c’mon, this is the NFL, lets be reasonable here”… congrats, you fell into the trap. This has nothing to do with Donovan McNabb; even with him, the Patriots were going to win this game by 5 TDs. This isn’t pro football at all; its unlike anything we’ve ever seen.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

MONDAY

Miami 0 – 10 (+16.0) @ Pittsburgh 7 – 3 (-16.0)
16 points is just too many. I don’t doubt that Pittsburgh will take care of business here; but an 0 – 10 team playing for its pride is always a very dangerous thing to play against, especially when trying to avoid embarrassment on Monday Night.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 42 – 44 – 0 (.488)

7 picks from Saturday, view them here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P8YY5_NsJ38

1. USC/ASU UNDER 49 (Loss)

2. Texas -6.0 (Loss)

3. Hawaii -3.0 (Win)

4. Utah +4.5 (Loss)

5. Tulsa -12.5 (Loss)

6. Florida Atlantic -11.5 (Win)

7. Cincinnati -20.5 (Win)

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Questions? Comments? Suggestions? Ideas?
Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
SEND ME FEEDBACK

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

I’d like to pour my heart out a little bit this week. Hope you don’t mind. If you don’t feel like reading, at least read the last paragraph. Thank you.

I have finally put a finger on what it is that is causing my picks to be so bad this year; I’m just really not into the NFL right now. At all.

In baseball, I don’t have a favorite team. I love the sport and I love individual players. This is why I’m excellent at fantasy baseball; I have no emotional ties.

I love hockey, but I really LOVE the Los Angeles Kings. Despite the fact that they haven’t made the playoffs in years, they have lots of young and exciting players, and they do win their share of hockey games. Last season was by far their worst in years, but it still had 27 wins and 14 overtime losses; lots of good games.

I’ve always been a fan of pro football, but the main reason for that is the Oakland Raiders. I’ve been a fan of this team for my entire life, and have always done everything in my power to watch every minute of every quarter. Despite no Super Bowls in my life time, the Gruden era was still so much fun to watch, with Rich Gannon and Tim Brown and Jerry Rice. They were always fun to watch. They always had a chance to win.

I’m no fair weather fan; I’ll stick with this team to the end. But it is really wearing down on me how bad they’ve been for so many years now. Since their Super Bowl bid, the Raiders have won only 17 of the 73 games they have played. Digest that for a minute. 17 wins, 56 losses over the last four and a half years. It kills me! My favorite team has been at the bottom of the barrel for years now, and they were really always the main reason I was interested in the NFL in the first place. It is hard for me to continue to care what other teams are doing. Especially since we are so poorly run; Al Davis is a joke, and for God’s sake, START JAMARCUS RUSSELL!!!

As many of you may know (and many may not), I ran a football pool back in high school for three years (starting in 2001). I would have people pick every game, then I would send out an email every Saturday night with everyone’s picks, so that everyone knew what they had to root for. I also sent out a results page every Tuesday. When I graduated high school in 2004, when football season came around, I needed something to fill the void. So I started sending out my picks each week. The Dime was born.

So as the Raiders struggled, my new interest in the NFL came from betting on it and sending out my picks newsletter. I’ve had pretty decent success; nothing flashy, but at least above 50% winners against the spread every year.

This year it has all fallen apart. I don’t bet games anymore (thankfully!) so my interest in the sport lives and dies here. I loved running the pool back in high school. I loved writing the Dime while I was picking winners. This season, as the losses started piling up, I have been getting frustrated and don’t enjoy writing this thing anymore. It is all in my emotions; some people can handicap without emotion. I can’t. When the passion isn’t there, I do poorly.

And I want to apologize. Not for the picks; but for my complete lack of passion. I’ve been putting out a lousy product all year, and it has been in large part due to the fact that my love for the NFL just hasn’t really been there this year, and my mood has been affected by other things (such as the lousy job I had at the beginning of this season). PLEASE EMAIL ME IF YOU WANT ME TO KEEP THE DIME GOING! Yes, YOU! I don’t get paid to do this and spend hours every week on it in hopes of putting out a column that you, the reader, can enjoy. If a bunch of you email me back and let me know you enjoy it and still want to see it, it’ll brighten my day and I’ll get re-energized for the rest of the season. If not, I’ll likely shut it down for the rest of this season or send a much shorter version out and try to get back into it next year.

Thanks for reading.

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 3 – 10 – 1 (.231)
Without the spread: 10 – 4 – 0 (.714)
^^Zen Picks^^: 0 – 1 – 1 (.000)
**Outright Upsets**: 0 – 3 – 0 (.000)

Season
With the spread: 59 – 76 – 9 (.437)
Without the spread: 81 – 63 – 0 (.563)
^^Zen Picks^^: 9 – 3 – 2 (.750)
**Outright Upsets**: 13 – 26 – 0 (.333)

LAST WEEK’S RECAP OF DAVE’S BRILLIANCE AND FOOLISHNESS
(Usually Foolishness)

Atlanta 2 – 6 (+3.5) @ Carolina 4 – 4 (-3.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina (LOSS)

Buffalo 4 – 4 (-3.0) @ Miami 0 – 8 (+3.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Miami (TIE)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Miami (LOSS)

Cleveland 5 – 3 (+10.0) @ Pittsburgh 6 – 2 (-10.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Pittsburgh (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh (WIN)

Denver 3 – 5 (+3.0) @ Kansas City 4 – 4 (-3.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Kansas City (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Kansas City (LOSS)

Jacksonville 5 – 3 (+5.0) @ Tennessee 6 – 2 (-5.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee (LOSS)

Minnesota 3 – 5 (+5.5) @ Green Bay 7 – 1 (-5.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay (WIN)

Philadelphia 3 – 5 (+3.0) @ Washington 5 – 3 (-3.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Washington (LOSS)

St. Louis 0 – 8 (+10.5) @ New Orleans 4 – 4 (-10.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans (LOSS)

Cincinnati 2 – 6 (+3.0) @ Baltimore 4 – 4 (-3.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore (LOSS)

Chicago 3 – 5 (-3.5) @ Oakland 2 – 6 (+3.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Oakland (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Oakland (LOSS)

Dallas 7 – 1 (-1.5) @ New York Giants 6 – 2 (+1.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *New York Giants (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *New York Giants (LOSS)

Detroit 6 – 2 (+1.5) @ Arizona 3 – 5 (-1.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona (WIN)

Indianapolis 7 – 1 (-3.5) @ San Diego 4 – 4 (+3.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis (LOSS)

San Francisco 2 – 6 (+10.0) @ Seattle 4 – 4 (-10.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle (WIN)

THE PICKS
* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Zen Pick

I’m just going to post very short commentary this week.

SUNDAY

Arizona 4 – 5 (+3.0) @ Cincinnati 3 – 6 (-3.0)
Arizona’s offense should be able to hang, especially with this pitiful Bengal defense. Stopping the Ravens means NOTHING.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Arizona

Carolina 4 – 5 (+9.5) @ Green Bay 8 – 1 (-9.5)
Vinny Testaverde VS. Brett Favre in GREEN BAY, you decide.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

Cleveland 5 – 4 (-2.5) @ Baltimore 4 – 5 (+2.5)
I don’t care what these teams used to be, lets see what they are right now.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cleveland

Kansas City 4 – 5 (+14.5) @ Indianapolis 7 – 2 (-14.5)
Peyton will be out for redemption and the Chiefs don’t have the firepower to keep up.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

Miami 0 – 9 (+9.5) @ Philadelphia 4 – 5 (-9.5)
Starting your first game with the Philadelphia crowd in your ear? Yikes.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

New Orleans 4 – 5 (+1.5) @ Houston 4 – 5 (-1.5)
Andre Johnson’s return should spell doom for New Orlean’s poor secondary.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston

New York Giants 6 – 3 (-2.5) @ Detroit 6 – 3 (+2.5)
Excellent pass rush against week pass rushing defense spells disaster for Detroit this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New York Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Giants

Oakland 2 – 7 (+5.0) @ Minnesota 3 – 6 (-5.0)
If anyone is as lackluster as the Raiders, it is the Peterson-less Minnesota Vikings.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Oakland

San Diego 5 – 4 (-3.0) @ Jacksonville 6 – 3 (+3.0)
Jacksonville D will be too tough for Rivers to handle.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Jacksonville

Tampa Bay 5 – 4 (-3.0) @ Atlanta 3 – 6 (+3.0)
Atlanta may have three wins, but they still suck.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay

Pittsburgh 7 – 2 (-9.5) @ New York Jets 1 – 8 (+9.5)
Clemens gives the Jets confidence to keep it close, but they are outclassed here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *New York Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

Chicago 4 – 5 (+5.5) @ Seattle 5 – 4 (-5.5)
Don’t see Seattle winning this one by much more than a field goal.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle

St. Louis 1 – 8 (-3.0) @ San Francisco 2 – 7 (+3.0)
St. Louis is getting healthy, San Fran is just awful.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: St. Louis

Washington 5 – 4 (+11.0) @ Dallas 8 – 1 (-11.0)
I’m done picking Washington. They play with no heart.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

New England 9 – 0 (-16.0) @ Buffalo 5 – 4 (+16.0)
Are you picking against the Pats?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

MONDAY

Tennessee 6 – 3 (+2.0) @ Denver 4 – 5 (-2.0)
Very even match up, I always give the edge to the team that ISN’T Denver.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Tennessee

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 39 – 40 – 0 (.494)

8 picks from Saturday! View them here; http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y3MLxMgHRYU

1. Hawaii -6.5 (LOSS)

2. Georgia -8.0 (WIN)

3. Arkansas -11.0 (WIN)

4. Cincinnati +7.0 (WIN)

5. CLEM -8.5 (LOSS)

6. San Diego State/Air Force OVER 49 (WIN)

7. LSU/Ole Miss OVER 54.5 (WIN)

8. TCU/UNLV OVER 44.5 (LOSS by 0.5!!!)

————————————————————-
Questions? Comments? Suggestions? Ideas?
Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
SEND ME FEEDBACK!

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Feels weird that we are still talking about football, since the Super Bowl has already been played and decided.

Honestly though, between the terrible job I’ve been doing this year picking games and the fact that we all already know who is going to win the Super Bowl this year, I seriously have no idea what I’m still doing this for.

Force of habit perhaps?

Maybe I’m a glutton for punishment?

Or maybe I like doing the punishing, making you read this nonsense every week!

Oh well, whatever the case, I’m still here.

At least we don’t have to watch the Patriots win again this week… the bye really is the only way to stop them.

Let’s get to the winners. (Haha!)

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 7 – 7 – 0 (.500)
Without the spread: 10 – 4 – 0 (.714)
^^Zen Picks^^: 1 – 0 – 0 (1.000)
**Outright Upsets**: 2 – 2 – 0 (.500)

Season
With the spread: 56 – 66 – 8 (.459)
Without the spread: 77 – 53 – 0 (.592)
^^Zen Picks^^: 9 – 2 – 1 (.818)
**Outright Upsets**: 13 – 23 – 0 (.361)

LAST WEEK’S RECAP OF DAVE’S BRILLIANCE AND FOOLISHNESS
(Usually Foolishness)

Arizona 3 – 4 (+3.5) @ Tampa Bay 4 – 4 (-3.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Arizona (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Arizona (LOSS)

Carolina (+4.5) @ Tennessee 5 – 2 (-4.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Carolina (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Carolina (LOSS)

Cincinnati 2 – 5 (-1.0) @ Buffalo 3 – 4 (+1.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati (LOSS)

Denver 3 – 4 (+3.0) @ Detroit 5 – 2 (-3.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Detroit (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Detroit (WIN)

Green Bay 6 – 1 (+2.5) @ Kansas City 4 – 3 (-2.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Kansas City (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Kansas City (LOSS)

Jacksonville 5 – 2 (+3.5) @ New Orleans 3 – 4 (-3.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans (WIN)

San Francisco 2 – 5 (+3.0) @ Atlanta 1 – 6 (-3.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta (WIN)

Washington 4 – 3 (-3.5) @ New York Jets 1 – 7 (+3.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Washington (WIN)

Seattle 4 – 3 (+1.0) @ Cleveland 4 – 3 (-1.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cleveland (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cleveland (WIN)

New England 8 – 0 (-6.0) @ Indianapolis 7 – 0 (+6.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England (WIN)

Dallas 6 – 1 (-3.0) @ Philadelphia 3 – 4 (+3.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas (WIN)

Baltimore 4 – 3 (+9.5) @ Pittsburgh 5 – 2 (-9.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Baltimore (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh (WIN)

DAMN, I’M GOOD

San Diego 4 – 3 (-7.0) @ Minnesota 2 – 5 (+7.0)
Going out on a limb here, but I think this is the week that the Chargers human sides kick in. The emotional effects of the fires have to be lingering, and traveling cross country away from friends and family is going to get to these guys. Minnesota’s strong rush defense will at least give them a fighting chance, and I am taking them to pull the upset here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *^Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Minnesota
- Wow. That’s all I can say. Congrats to Adrian Peterson for the record setting performance.

Houston 3 – 5 (+3.0) @ Oakland 2 – 5 (-3.0)
“You can go through all the statistics you want, play fantasy football and draft whoever you want. At the end of the day it’s turnover ratio that decides football games.” Ex-Raider Coach Jon Gruden summed it up perfectly here; with turnover-machine Josh McCown back under center, the Raiders should fall in this one. I hope Jamarcus and his agent are happy; if they hadn’t been so stingy, he’d be starting VERY soon.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Houston
- McCown’s 3 picks make the difference here.

THE PICKS
* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Zen Pick

Atlanta 2 – 6 (+3.5) @ Carolina 4 – 4 (-3.5)
Sure, Atlanta picked up their 2nd win of the season last week… but the 49ers at home and Carolina on the road are much different stories. Even with 154 year old Vinny Testaverde running Carolina’s offense, they should be able to handle Atlanta.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina

Buffalo 4 – 4 (-3.0) @ Miami 0 – 8 (+3.0)
I keep picking Miami, and they keep losing. What gets me about this game is the spread. You have a 4 – 4 Buffalo team (including 2 heartbreaking last second losses to Denver and Dallas; they could easily be 6 – 2) VS. an absolutely pitiful Dolphins team. So why on earth is the spread only -3? Seems like a trap to me. Factor in historically the fact that winless home underdogs against division rivals tend to play extraordinarily well, you’ve gotta play the Dolphins here; even if it is like pulling teeth.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Miami

Cleveland 5 – 3 (+10.0) @ Pittsburgh 6 – 2 (-10.0)
Another game that is decided for me solely by the spread. Cleveland is this year’s feel good story, everyone is backing them and they look to be completely legit. So why am I getting 10 points? I feel most people would consider Cleveland at +6 or +7… so this tells me the bookies know something. I won’t spring the trap.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

Denver 3 – 5 (+3.0) @ Kansas City 4 – 4 (-3.0)
Kansas City has had the league’s best home field advantage for years, and they send Priest Holmes out there against the league’s worst rushing defense. I like my chances with the Chiefs here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Kansas City

Jacksonville 5 – 3 (+5.0) @ Tennessee 6 – 2 (-5.0)
Jacksonville playing its third road game in a row, Tennessee playing its third home game in a row; I’d love this game for the home team even if Tennessee WEREN’T the better team… which they are.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee

Minnesota 3 – 5 (+5.5) @ Green Bay 7 – 1 (-5.5)
Brett Favre will have no trouble picking apart Minnesota’s weak secondary… and their rushing defense should fare quite a bit better than San Diego’s did last week against Peterson.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

Philadelphia 3 – 5 (+3.0) @ Washington 5 – 3 (-3.0)
In what should be a low scoring, boring game, Washington will win. Only the truest of Redskins and Eagles fans can justify watching this game over any other game on the schedule this morning.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Washington

St. Louis 0 – 8 (+10.5) @ New Orleans 4 – 4 (-10.5)
St. Louis has to get it going sooner or later…. I’m gonna go ahead and go with LATER on this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

Cincinnati 2 – 6 (+3.0) @ Baltimore 4 – 4 (-3.0)
Cincinnati looks like a bargain against a Baltimore team that was just made a fool of on Monday, don’t they? Please. Appalachian State could put up 30 on this Bengals’ defense. Baltimore, especially on offense, has been awful… but the Bengals take awful to a whole new level.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

Chicago 3 – 5 (-3.5) @ Oakland 2 – 6 (+3.5)
Before the season started, I chalked this one up as an automatic loss for a Raider team I thought could be a 6 – 8 win team. Pathetic QBing has taken me away from that belief. Yet even more surprising has been the downfall of the Bears. I predicted they would struggle this year, but had no clue they would be THIS bad. They are as bad, if not worse, than this Raiders team on both sides of the ball. Remember, I just picked Houston money line last week, so it isn’t like I’m too high on the Raiders. This is just one of those rare games that the Raiders are going to win, putting an exclamation mark on how far the Bears have fallen.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Oakland

Dallas 7 – 1 (-1.5) @ New York Giants 6 – 2 (+1.5)
Really don’t know what to expect from these two… they haven’t really played anyone. Since their last meeting, both teams have 6 wins. The combined record of the 6 teams beaten? 13 – 36 for the Giants, 13 – 35 for Dallas. I think these teams are pretty evenly matched (and perhaps both overrated)… so I think home field is the deciding factor here. I’m 8 – 0 on Giants games this year, so I must be right!
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *New York Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *New York Giants

Detroit 6 – 2 (+1.5) @ Arizona 3 – 5 (-1.5)
Tough, tough game. Detroit seems to be the obvious pick. So with the spread being a point and a half in Arizona’s favor, I really wanted to figure out why before I blindly took the Lions. In the process, I talked myself into picking Arizona. Detroit is 2 – 2 on the road this season with wins against lowly Oakland and Chicago… and blowout losses to Washington and Philadelphia. Arizona has two excellent WRs in Boldin and Fitzgerald and hasn’t faced a secondary as bad as Detroit’s yet. They also have a pretty decent defense of their own. Don’t be blinded by the records; Arizona is the pick here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona

Indianapolis 7 – 1 (-3.5) @ San Diego 4 – 4 (+3.5)
Everyone was hopping back on board with San Diego being “back to last season’s form” before the Vikings game… but do wins against Denver, Oakland, and Houston really warrant that? Norv Turner has taken a top 3 team and turned it into a “good” team. And good just isn’t enough to hang with the Colts.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

San Francisco 2 – 6 (+10.0) @ Seattle 4 – 4 (-10.0)
10 points seems to be an awful lot to give up to take Seattle… but it is impossible not to hear. San Francisco has been a huge disappointment this year and hasn’t been able to do anything right; I don’t see them going into Seattle and making this a game.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle

How in the world do I pick the home team 13 of the 14 games? This won’t end well…

AVERAGE JOE THEORY

Going on my theory that Vegas always wins, if you always bet the exact opposite of Average Joe, wouldn’t you end up a winner? Average Joe is the football fan that doesn’t crunch numbers or anything, just knows the teams and picks what looks good/easy to him. In other words, Vegas’s perfect target.

I want to try to channel in to Average Joe and make all the picks I think he would make. If he picks around 50/50, I don’t have an angle. But if he picks 45% winners… betting against him would definitely be a profitable affair. If he does better than I do consistently, I can just “become him”. So lets find out how “he” does this year.

Last Week: 1 – 2 – 0
Season: 16 – 9 – 0

Average Joe’s Picks:
BUF (-3.0) – “The Dolphins are so bad they are probably going 0 – 16 this year!”
CLE (+10.0) – “Division rival, Cleveland keeps this close!”
NO (-10.5) – “Rams might be even worse than the Dolphins!”
DET (+1.5) – “They will KILL Arizona! Kitna = 10 wins!”

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 34 – 37 – 0 (.479)

10 picks from Saturday! View them here; http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vpsg7JGnfIk

1. Arkansas +1.0 over Tennessee (LOSS)

2. Missouri -19.0 over Texas A & M (LOSS)

3. Air Force -3.5 over Notre Dame (WIN)

4. Arizona State -7.0 over UCLA (LOSS)

5. Ohio State -15.0 over Illinois (LOSS)

6. Oklahoma -38.0 over Baylor (LOSS)

7. Oklahoma/Baylor OVER 56 (WIN)

8. Washington State -10.5 over Stanford (WIN)

9. USC -4.0 over California (WIN)

10. Hawaii -17.5 over Fresno State (LOSS)

————————————————————-
Questions? Comments? Suggestions? Ideas?
Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
SEND ME FEEDBACK!

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

The 9th week.

Then God said, “Let there be a game bigger than the Super Bowl could ever dream of being, a battle of titans, an epic battle of undefeateds, a preview of the inevitable AFC Championship game.” And so it was.

Too much? Maybe. But then, every time I turn on the TV these days, I certainly feel like I’m about to see something of biblical proportions this Sunday.

As such, under THE PICKS, I will have a pretty in-depth look at the game… but for those of you not satisfied, I will have an extra section called SUPER BOWL XLI 1/2 with even more info on the game (all of this copied and pasted from an argument I had with someone on a betting forum about this game)

Yeah, I hang out in online betting forums. I never claimed to be cool.

And if I did, I was either drunk or joking.

Probably both.

Lets see if I can string together two straight winning weeks here to chip away some more at my gargantuan win defect.

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 8 – 5 – 0 (.615)
Without the spread: 9 – 4 – 0 (.692)
^^Zen Picks^^: 0 – 0 – 0 (N/A)
**Outright Upsets**: 2 – 2 – 0 (.500)

Season
With the spread: 49 – 59 – 8 (.454)
Without the spread: 67 – 49 – 0 (.578)
^^Zen Picks^^: 8 – 2 – 1 (.800)
**Outright Upsets**: 11 – 21 – 0 (.333)

LAST WEEK’S RECAP OF DAVE’S BRILLIANCE AND FOOLISHNESS
(Usually Foolishness)

Cleveland 3 – 3 (-3.0) @ St. Louis 0 – 7 (+3.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *St. Louis (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *St. Louis (LOSS)

Detroit 4 – 2 (+5.0) @ Chicago 3 – 4 (-5.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Detroit (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Detroit (WIN)

Indianapolis 6 – 0 (-7.0) @ Carolina 4 – 2 (+7.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis (WIN)

Oakland 2 – 4 (+7.0) @ Tennessee 4 – 2 (-7.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee (WIN)

Philadelphia 2 – 4 (-1.0) @ Minnesota 2 – 4 (+1.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia (WIN)

Pittsburgh 4 – 2 (-4.0) @ Cincinnati 2 – 4 (+4.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh (WIN)

Buffalo 2 – 4 (+3.0) @ New York Jets 1 – 6 (-3.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Buffalo (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Buffalo (WIN)

Jacksonville 4 – 2 (+4.0) @ Tampa Bay 4 – 3 (-4.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Jacksonville (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay (LOSS)

New Orleans 2 – 4 (-3.0) @ San Francisco 2 – 4 (+3.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *San Francisco (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *San Francisco (LOSS)

Washington 4 – 2 (+16.0) @ New England 7 – 0 (-16.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Washington (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England (WIN)

Green Bay 5 – 1 (+3.0) @ Denver 3 – 3 (-3.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver (LOSS)

DAMN, I’M GOOD

New York Giants 5 – 2 (-10.0) @ Miami 0 – 7 (+10.0)
I put my 7 – 0 Giant game record on the line here with a prediction I made 3 weeks ago; the Dolphins will win this game outright. Of course, in 3 week’s time, its been made clear to me just how bad this team is, and losing their best offensive weapon doesn’t help, either. As such, I have to back off on calling the straight up upset; but I do believe that the Giants’ hot streak may suffer a bit from the travel, and the Dolphins will keep it close.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Giants
- How do you go 8 – 0 on a team?!?

Houston 3 – 4 (+9.5) @ San Diego 3 – 3 (-9.5)
I was figuring that the fires would effect the Chargers as their heads won’t be completely in the game, and practice hasn’t exactly been convenient this week. But I’ve decided that once the flow of the game gets going, instincts will take over, and the Chargers will win this one convincingly.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego
- 35-point first half helps.

THE PICKS
* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Zen Pick

SUNDAY

Arizona 3 – 4 (+3.5) @ Tampa Bay 4 – 4 (-3.5)
No one knows what to expect from either of these teams, but one thing I’ve learned the hard way this year is that Arizona never says die. I don’t think Tampa Bay has what it takes to keep a never-say-die team down, even at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Arizona

Carolina (+4.5) @ Tennessee 5 – 2 (-4.5)
Tennessee has been playing with fire all season, yet they somehow always come out on top. Law of averages says they are due for some of these bounces to start going against them; and I have a feeling it’ll be this week. I like Carolina to win outright; I LOVE Carolina with the 4.5.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Carolina

Cincinnati 2 – 5 (-1.0) @ Buffalo 3 – 4 (+1.0)
Cincinnati’s biggest problem all year has been their awful defense… but even they should be able to give Carson the chance to win against a very quiet Buffalo offense.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati

Denver 3 – 4 (+3.0) @ Detroit 5 – 2 (-3.0)
Denver’s secondary may be good on paper, but this team is just bad. Detroit has been winning games all year doing whatever they have to do; and a team that gives wins away like Denver does isn’t going to stop them this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Detroit

Green Bay 6 – 1 (+2.5) @ Kansas City 4 – 3 (-2.5)
Kansas City is the only team that Brett Favre has never beat. Crazy, isn’t it? I could really go either way on this game and think it is pretty much a coin flip; and in coin flip situations, you’ve gotta go with the home team.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Kansas City

Jacksonville 5 – 2 (+3.5) @ New Orleans 3 – 4 (-3.5)
Tough game, but I’ve got to go with New Orleans. They appear to be back on track, and Jacksonville can’t possibly win two straight road games with David Gray under center.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

San Diego 4 – 3 (-7.0) @ Minnesota 2 – 5 (+7.0)
Going out on a limb here, but I think this is the week that the Chargers human sides kick in. The emotional effects of the fires have to be lingering, and traveling cross country away from friends and family is going to get to these guys. Minnesota’s strong rush defense will at least give them a fighting chance, and I am taking them to pull the upset here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *^Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Minnesota

San Francisco 2 – 5 (+3.0) @ Atlanta 1 – 6 (-3.0)
Hard to believe Atlanta is the favorite against anyone, but they deserve to be at home against one of this season’s biggest disappointments. The 49ers can’t get anything going at all on offense; and their defense hasn’t been good enough to make that okay.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

Washington 4 – 3 (-3.5) @ New York Jets 1 – 7 (+3.5)
It’d be nice if Kellen Clemens gave the Jets a much needed spark at home to beat the Redskins; but I wouldn’t bet on it. Washington will be looking for a strong showing after last week’s embarrassment.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Washington

Seattle 4 – 3 (+1.0) @ Cleveland 4 – 3 (-1.0)
Never thought I’d be taking Cleveland in this spot, but they have been excellent at home, and Seattle has been quite mediocre this season.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cleveland

Houston 3 – 5 (+3.0) @ Oakland 2 – 5 (-3.0)
“You can go through all the statistics you want, play fantasy football and draft whoever you want. At the end of the day it’s turnover ratio that decides football games.” Ex-Raider Coach Jon Gruden summed it up perfectly here; with turnover-machine Josh McCown back under center, the Raiders should fall in this one. I hope Jamarcus and his agent are happy; if they hadn’t been so stingy, he’d be starting VERY soon.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Houston

New England 8 – 0 (-6.0) @ Indianapolis 7 – 0 (+6.0)

Team A Scores: 34, 34, 38, 38, 38, 48, 49, 52 (41.4)
Team A Win Margin: 17, 21, 21, 21, 24, 24, 31, 45 (25.5)

Team B Scores: 22, 29, 30, 31, 33, 38, 41 (32)
Team B Win Margin: 31, 2, 6, 18, 19, 22, 24 (17.4)

Team A or Team B?

And what makes people think the Colts can keep up with this offense?

The Patriots have crushed (by 17+) the 2nd (Dallas), 4th (Cleveland), 6th (Cincinnati), and 8th (San Diego) highest scoring offenses in the league.

The Colts have only played one team in the top 10 in the league in scoring; the Texans (10th). And that was WITHOUT Andre Johnson! They only won by 6!

I LOVE the Colts and HATE the Patriots but I’m not letting that blind me into thinking the Colts have a shadow of a chance!

*More on this game in SUPER BOWL XLI 1/2 below.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

Dallas 6 – 1 (-3.0) @ Philadelphia 3 – 4 (+3.0)
There really shouldn’t be any way that Philadelphia can keep up with Dallas’s offense, even with the home crowd behind them. Dallas will have to beat themselves to lose here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

MONDAY

Baltimore 4 – 3 (+9.5) @ Pittsburgh 5 – 2 (-9.5)
I agree this is a mismatch, and that Baltimore has had a disappointing season to date, but I just don’t see this division rivalry game being this easy for Pittsburgh. They should win, but not by the comfortable 10 points this spread suggests.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

SUPER BOWL XLI 1/2

A few more things to clear up…

A) “The only thing that those numbers prove are that Belichick runs the score up more than Dungy.”

Oh really? First of all, before I even show you any numbers, I’d like to argue that “running up the score” isn’t always as bad as people make it seem. Obviously in the Redskins game, that was running up the score. But in the NFL, I have seen on more than one occasion a team score 21 points in a 5 minute span at the end of the game (TD, 3 and out, TD, onside, TD). Giving yourself a comfortable lead is not the same thing as running up the score.

Week 1: the Pats tacked on 10 4th quarter points to a 14 point lead heading into the 4th quarter… but then the Colts tacked on 17 4th quarter points to a 14 point lead heading into the 4th.

Week 2: Pats up 24 – 0 at the half, score a TD in the 3rd and 4th in response to SD TDs in the 3rd and 4th.

Week 3: Pats take a 10 point lead into the half, add 14 3rd quarter points and finish up a 3rd quarter drive in the 4th quarter for another 7 (10 mins left in the game), then don’t score again.

Week 4: New England only up 14 when they score their last TD with 6 mins left on Cinci. I think thats still a reasonable time to score.

Week 5: 20 – 0 lead at half on Cleveland, no scoring in the 3rd, then 2 TDs to respond to 2 Cleveland TDs in the 4th (plus 2nd TD actually a 15 yard fumble recovery for a TD)

Week 6: Pats up 14 at the end of the game, score en route to running out the clock in closing seconds (7 plays, 5 runs, 2 passes were one short one for a loss of 2 and one to keep the drive alive on 3rd down)

Week 7: Pats take a 42 – 0 1st half lead, score 7 unnecessary points in the 4th… but this could have been a 60 or 70 point effort if the Patriots wanted it to be.

Week 8: Patriots run up the score on the Redskins.

The ONLY game I see any misconduct on the part of the Patriots is the Washington game. Then again, if Belichick was a respected coach, instead of hearing “un-classy” we’d be hearing “sending a message”. But whatever. The Patriots average 10.75 4th quarter points per game to the Colts 8.14 4th quarter per game, which is right on par with the regular outscoring. And trust me, I don’t think the Colts put up 0 against the Titans and only 3 against the Texans in the 4th ON PURPOSE.

B) “Cowboys were 5 point underdogs hosting the Pats a few weeks ago. Now Indy is 5 point dogs in at home, same as Dallas. Something is very wrong with this line, unless you think Dallas is every bit as good as the Colts.”

False. Most people will agree that the Colts are a better team then the Cowboys. But lets take a look at the scores to that point in the season:

Dallas 45 – New York 35
Dallas 37 – Miami 20
Dallas 34 – Chicago 10
Dallas 35 – St. Louis 7
Dallas 25 – Buffalo 24 (Crazy game as you know)

So to this point in the season, we didn’t know how bad the teams they beat (besides the Giants) were going to be, and this team looked pretty damn good and deserved the respect of being among the top in the league (and still do at 6 – 1).

1 month later, we have seen the Patriots onslaught continue and have come to realize this may be one of the great teams ever assembled. If they played Dallas THIS week, Dallas would be much more than a 5 point underdog. You can’t use spreads from a month ago to draw equal signs. A LOT of things change in a month. Including realization of just how real this team is.

C) “Playing the numbers game only works in fantasy football. I don’t care if Cincy is the 6th ranked offense in the NFL, they still suck.”

Yes, they suck, but not on offense. I’m not trying to argue that they are on par with the Colts; my point is simply that if you take the league average of points per game (21), the Patriots have played 4 teams with higher, while the Colts have only played one.

Isn’t it possible – just possible – that one of the reasons the Colts defense has looked so good is that it hasn’t really been tested?

AVERAGE JOE THEORY

Going on my theory that Vegas always wins, if you always bet the exact opposite of Average Joe, wouldn’t you end up a winner? Average Joe is the football fan that doesn’t crunch numbers or anything, just knows the teams and picks what looks good/easy to him. In other words, Vegas’s perfect target.

I want to try to channel in to Average Joe and make all the picks I think he would make. If he picks around 50/50, I don’t have an angle. But if he picks 45% winners… betting against him would definitely be a profitable affair. If he does better than I do consistently, I can just “become him”. So lets find out how “he” does this year.

Last Week: 4 – 2 – 0
Season: 15 – 7 – 0

Average Joe’s Picks:
DET (-3.0) – “Denver is awful, it is in Detroit.”
SD (-7.0) – “Great team against weak Minnesota”
NE/IND OVER 57 – “38 – 35 at least!”

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 30 – 31 – 0 (.492)

7 picks from Saturday! View them here; http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MTiKn1hRQUQ

1. Clemson (-16.5) over Duke (WIN)

2. Kansas (-20.5) over Nebraska (WIN)

3. Troy (+16.5) over Georgia (WIN)

4. Cincinnati/South Florida UNDER 50.5 (LOSS)

5. Missouri (-3.5) over Colorado (WIN)

6. Arizona State/Oregon UNDER 61 (WIN)

7. Boston College (-6.5) over Florida State (LOSS)

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