Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”
www.davesdime.com

THE INTRO

Maybe 2009 is going to be my year.

8 – 4 on the 12 college bowls played in 2009, and 6 – 2 on the 8 NFL picks I made this first weekend of 2009.

14 – 6 = 70% Winners!

Perhaps this is my year! Perhaps I have turned a new leaf! Perhaps my years of capping have finally paid off, and I have finally become a solid football handicapper.

Or, perhaps, I just got lucky, and it is a coincidence that a new year just happened to start.

(Damnit, why is that last perhaps so much more likely than the others?)

Oh well, no matter. I don’t care how or why I’m winning, I’m just glad that I am. Lets try and keep it up!

And P.S! My 23rd birthday is this Sunday, January 11th. So, you know, if you wanted to get rid of some of your extra toys and gadgets from the holiday season, I do accept re-gifts!

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 2 – 2 – 0 (.500)
Without the spread: 2 – 2 (.500)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 0 – 0 – 0 (N/A)
Over/Under: 4 – 0 – 0 (1.000)

Playoffs
With the spread: 2 – 2 – 0 (.500)
Without the spread: 2 – 2 (.500)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 0 – 0 – 0 (N/A)
Over/Under: 4 – 0 – 0 (1.000)

Regular Season (Final)

With the spread: 130 – 119 – 6 (.522)
Without the spread: 159 – 96 – 1 (.624)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 25 – 11 – 0 (.694)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

SATURDAY

#6 Baltimore Ravens 12 – 5 (+3.0) @ #1 Tennessee Titans 13 – 3 (-3.0)
VIDEO BREAKDOWN: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T6TEQOsIfbc

This should be a great game between two relatively evenly matched teams. Both teams have similar styles; they love to run the ball and they love to play defense. The Ravens are slightly better statistically, but playing against the Bengals and Browns twice certainly helped that. So who do you take in a game between two teams so similar in style? I’m going with the Titans. People seem to forget just how dominant this team was in the 1st half of the season, and they only let up because they had the division clinched so early. They’ve had plenty of time to rest up for the playoffs, and I expect them to come out strong. But the main reasons I like Tennessee here are home field advantage and QB play. Flacco is arguably a better QB than Collins, but Collins is a seasoned veteran that has been here before. Asking Flacco to go on the road for the second straight week in an intense playoff atmosphere and not make any mistakes just isn’t fair. I think he will make an error or two against a much tougher defense than what he faced last week, and that should tip the scales ever so slightly in the Titans favor. I like the over here simply because 34 is such a low number, and these defenses should cause some turnovers and give their offenses good field positions to work with.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee
OVER/UNDER 34: Over

#4 Arizona Cardinals 10 – 7 (+10.0) @ #2 Carolina Panthers (-10.0)
VIDEO BREAKDOWN: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9kMOgVXt1eM

Last week Arizona played very well and did some things that I didn’t see coming at all; they stopped the run and they ran the ball well. That win was likely a huge confidence booster, and any doubts about the slow end to the regular season should now be gone. Losing Boldin is needless to say a tremendous loss, but Fitzgerald and Breaston still make for a more than capable WR core. I don’t think Arizona can stop Carolina like they did Atlanta; Delhomme is an experienced QB and will not make the mistakes Ryan did. That said, I don’t think Carolina is going to shut down Arizona’s offense completely. I think Arizona can keep this game within 10 points; and if they play anything close to what they played like last week, they can keep this game VERY close.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina
OVER/UNDER 48.5: Over

SUNDAY

#6 Philadelphia Eagles 10 – 6 – 1 (+4.0) @ #1 New York Giants 12 – 4 (-4.0)
VIDEO BREAKDOWN: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9kMOgVXt1eM

Another situation a lot like the Titans; I think people have simply forgotten how good this Giants team is when it is rolling. As soon as the NFC East was locked up, the Giants were able to use Jacobs more sparingly. He won’t be 100% Sunday, but not many players are at this time of year. Certainly not the Eagles, who have been in playoff-must-win-mode for about 2 months now. The Giants should be much fresher, and they have the added incentive of avenging their home loss to the Eagles a few weeks back. Everyone seems to be picking the Eagles; do you really think the well rested defending Super Bowl champions are going to let the Eagles come into their stadium and beat them a 2nd time in a row after all this? The fact that people betting the Eagles hasn’t moved the line also tells me that the bookies likely want people betting on the Eagles, as they too believe the Giants are the pick here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New York Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Giants
OVER/UNDER 40: Over

#4 San Diego Chargers 9 – 8 (+6.0) @ #2 Pittsburgh Steelers 12 – 4 (-6.0)
VIDEO BREAKDOWN: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T6TEQOsIfbc

Statistically, the Steelers have the best defense in the league; and it isn’t even close. They are way ahead of every other team in both least amount of rushing and passing yards given up. Consider this; Darren Sproles had 328 all-purpose yards and over 100 yards rushing against Indy’s 23rd ranked rushing defense, at home, in great weather, and the Chargers only managed to put up 17 points in regulation. Now they have to travel across the country to the East coast, play in the blistering cold in a hostile stadium against a significantly better defense. Explain to me how you see San Diego scoring in this game? So strange to see the league’s best teams not getting the respect they deserve this week with these spreads. The Steelers should shut down the Chargers completely, and if they can get 14 – 17 points, that should be enough to cover the spead.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
OVER/UNDER 38: Under

Good Luck!

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

Regular Season With the Spread (Final)
Season: 64 – 63 – 1 (.504)

Bowl Games With the Spread (Final)
Season: 22 – 12 – 0 (.647)

Combined Record: 86 – 75 – 1 (.534)

Have a great weekend!
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