Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”
www.davesdime.com

THE INTRO

((I spend a lot of time typing this up every week, mainly for the enjoyment of my readers. If you are receiving this email, it is because I feel like you will have a good time reading it and/or you asked me to send it to you. This is not meant to be spam mail. You will only receive one email from me a week. If you want to be taken off the list, let me know, and I’ll remove you immediately… but its much better for my pride if you just delete it every week and let me think that you kinda care. Thanks!))

There are three sure things in life;

Death.
Taxes.
and DAVE’S DIME at football season!

…Unless, of course, I die. Or if I don’t pay my taxes and they shut of my Internet and electricity.

Hmm.. maybe that’s why those two go first?

In any case, I am alive and well, and once again I am excited to be a part of your football ritual for the upcoming season. Whether you glance, skim, delete, or in some rare cases READ the Dime, I appreciate your interest and your support as I try not to embarrass myself too badly trying to pick winners.

With my unparalleled wit (yes, I’m seriously off balance), exceptional handicapping (1 to 2% better then flipping a coin to pick winners!), superb writing talents (If by superb you mean haven’t improved since the 9th grade), and the voice inside my head (that’s me!), I hope to provide you with picks against the spread in the NFL that are fun to read and, if I’m lucky, occasionally on target.

But remember above all else that this is FREE. You get what you pay for. It’s like when you go on a job fair and the booths give you free things like pens and yo-yos. Do they run out of ink and get knotted up faster then the high quality ones do? Most definitely. But you can’t complain, because its free!

So without further ado, lets kick of my broken yo-yo pro football column!

THE RECORD

2007 Season
With the spread: 124 – 123 – 9 (.502)
Without the spread: 157 – 99 – 0 (.613)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 14 – 7 – 2 (.667)
**Outright Upsets**: 20 – 42 – 0 (.323)

2006 Season
With the spread: 126 – 121 – 9 (.510)
Without the spread: 154 – 102 – 0 (.602)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 24 – 22 – 2 (.522)
**Outright Upsets**: 36 – 33 – 0 (.522)

2005 Season
With the spread: 138 – 111 – 7 (.554)
Without the spread: 167 – 89 – 0 (.652)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 27 – 13 – 1 (.675)

This is the section where I list my total record as the season progresses.

With the spread: 0 – 0 – 0 (.000)
Without the spread: 0 – 0 – 0 (.000)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 0 – 0 – 0 (.000)
**Outright Upsets**: 0 – 0 – 0 (.000)

With the Spread – I will explain in detail what the spread means for those of you who do not know in THE PICKS section.

Without the Spread – Who I pick to win the game, outright.

^^Philosophical Picks^^ – If it were as easy as just crunching the numbers, everyone could do it. These are human beings with motivational factors on and off the field. If I make a pick that looks past the stats at the human element of the game, a (^) will signify that.

**Outright Upsets** – When I take the underdog to not only cover the spread but to actually win the game, too. These picks will have a (*) next to them. Did horribly with these last year, but am hoping to turn that around this year.

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

Here I will just remind you who I took last week and whether or not I was right or wrong

THE PICKS

And where would we be without actually picking some winners?

*Here is the layout of my picks, and an explanation of how the spread works. Veteran readers can skip ahead to THE REAL THING!, but first timers or forgetful people should read on. Don’t worry if you’re confused at first, it will make sense as time goes on. Still, I’ll do my best to explain.*

TEAM ONE (+6.5) @ TEAM TWO (-6.5)
The team on the left side is always on the road, and the team on the right side is always at home. I will use this area to provide commentary as to why I’m picking who I’m picking. The number in parenthesis is called “The Spread”. This is how Las Vegas makes money. If you could bet on any two teams on an even playing field, you could always take the favorite, and you would win quite often. With the spread, things are evened out a bit. If you take the weaker team (in this case team one), you are going to be given X amount of points (in this case 6.5). So, lets say the final score to the game is “Team One” 7, “Team Two” 10. Team Two won the game, but not in Vegas terms. Add the 6.5 Vegas gave to Team One, and the score was “Team One” 13.5, “Team Two” 10. So, if you put money on Team Two, even though they won, they didn’t win by enough to “cover the spread” (which means outscore Team One with the extra points), so you lost money. So when you take the underdog (the team with the extra points), you add those points to their final total. If you take the favorite, you have to subtract number X from your total (So in the 10 – 7 game, minus 6.5, Team Two loses 3.5 – 7). The reason numbers usually have .5’s on them is so there can not be a tie. If you’re still confused, don’t worry, it’ll clear up. If you got it, well done!
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: TEAM TWO (-6.5)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: TEAM TWO (-6.5)

THE REAL THING!

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

Last year was by far my worst year to date and I was lucky to end up over .500… lets try and get this season started off strong here!

THURSDAY

Washington (+4.0) @ New York Giants (-4.0)
This is the first of many tough games on the schedule this week. Washington did an excellent job drafting this year, and could definitely surprise some people this season. New York, meanwhile, lost two of its best defensive lineman in Michael Strahan (retired) and Osi Umenyiora (injured)… and putting pressure on the quarterback was this team’s bread and butter. All that said, with the Giants home opener and the rising of the Super Bowl banner, the fans will be rocking the building and New York should have enough on offense to win this game by a touchdown. I certainly can’t pick against them this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New York Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Giants

SUNDAY

Seattle (+1.0) @ Buffalo (-1.0)
This game just looks ugly. Lots of injuries and question marks, especially on offense for these teams. The spread is right on; this game looks like a coinflip. It’ll come down to who gets the bounces or makes the big play. Generally as a rule I take the home team in games like this, but I like Seattle a bit better on paper, so I’ll take them and hope for that bounce to go their way.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Seattle

Detroit (-3.0) @ Atlanta (+3.0)
There is no question that Atlanta will be better then they were last year; they can’t really get any worse. That said, there is no excuse for this line only being at 3 points. Kitna and the Lions will put up points, and even with a suspect defense, Matt Ryan will make mistakes as all rookie QBs do in their first season. Don’t see Atlanta winning in this spot.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Detroit

Cincinnati (-1.5) @ Baltimore (+1.5)
I really hate taking the Bengals after the way they played last year, but with McGahee not at 100% and QB issues like crazy, it is too hard to believe that Baltimore will miraculously start putting points on the board. Even Cinci’s defense should be able to keep the game within reason for the offense to take it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati

St. Louis (+7.5) @ Philadelphia (-7.5)
With the wide receiving core in shambles in Philly, I don’t see this game being a shootout. I also don’t see St. Louis getting completely shut down on offense. Philly is the better team and should come out on top here, but I think it’ll be within a touchdown.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

Houston (+6.5) @ Pittsburgh (-6.5)
Houston took some strides last year towards becoming a solid team in the AFC, and I believe they can grow on that this year and will probably be competitive in a lot of games this year. Pittsburgh, however, has the makings of being a serious contender in the AFC; with question marks about Brady and Manning’s health, it isn’t out of the realm of possibility that Pittsburgh could get their names thrown in the hat as a legitimate Super Bowl contender. I believe they get that ball rolling this week with a convincing win at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

Jacksonville (-3.0) @ Tennessee (+3.0)
First of all, I want to wish Richard Collier, the Jacksonville offensive tackle who was shot this week and suffered some life threatening injuries, my very best. I hope he is able to recover in full. It is hard to handicap a game when a tragedy like this that is so much more important then the game of football is a dark shadow over the game. Despite the fact that Jacksonville may be the better team, the emotional distraction of this loss as well as the fact that they are playing against division rival Tennessee who ALWAYS plays tough and it is in Tennessee, Jacksonville might just have too much working against them this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *^Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *^Tennessee

Tampa Bay (+3.0) @ New Orleans (-3.0)
No one is questioning New Orleans talent on offense, or how great of a team they make in fantasy football. In real football though, you need to play defense. I’ve read that New Orleans may be better and faster on defense this year, but I’ll believe it when I see it. I know I’ll get a good defensive performance from Tampa Bay, and I can also count on a smart offense run by Jeff Garcia. That may be just about all I need in this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Tampa Bay

Kansas City (+16.5) @ New England (-16.5)
Do I like giving up 16.5 points fresh out of the gate? Absolutely not. But with New England on a mission to prove that last year was not a fluke, and a returning cast on offense that obliterated everyone (except the Giants when it mattered) last season, and a rebuilding Kansas City team… I’m just not crazy enough to pick against New England until I see some vulnerability with my own eyes.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

N.Y. Jets (-3.0) @ Miami (+3.0)
This game is tough simply because I really believe that both of these teams will show big improvement over last season. Chad Pennington is perfect to run this offense which should run the ball well with Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown, and should open lanes up for them with a solid west coast offense. All eyes will be on Brett Favre in this game, but he hasn’t looked comfortable in this offensive scheme in the preseason. Am I asking way too much from a team that went 1 – 15 last season to turn things around so quickly? Probably… but I just have a feeling.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Miami

Arizona (-2.5) @ San Francisco (+2.5)
Arizona has too many distractions (Leinart losing his job to Warner, Boldin demanding a trade and not on talking terms with the coach) to be 100% focused on this game. San Francisco made the right choice in benching Alex Smith for JT O’Sullivan, and I think the team will rally behind this decision and grab a win in the season opener.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *^San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *^San Francisco

Carolina (+9.0) @ San Diego (-9.0)
With Steve Smith suspended and out this week, Carolina is without its most explosive offensive weapon; and they would need him to have any chance to keep up with the Chargers. Question marks and concerns are still swirling around Shawne Merriman playing with bad knees, but with or without him, San Diego would still win this game by double digits.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

Dallas (-5.5) @ Cleveland (+5.5)
Cleveland has plenty of talent, but I believe that Dallas will once again be the class of the NFC this year, and they will just be too talented on both sides of the ball for Cleveland to handle right now. Quinn will make some mistakes under pressure, and Dallas will capitalize.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

Chicago (+9.5) @ Indianapolis (-9.5)
So much emphasis will be placed on Peyton Manning’s knee – which appears to be fine – in this game that I think some people will overlook the fact that the game is going to be decided on the other side of the ball. The Colts have a great defense and the Bears’ offense looks on paper to be embarrassing; expect plenty of turnovers and plenty of short fields for the Indy offense.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

MONDAY

Minnesota (+2.5) @ Green Bay (-2.5)
While Minnesota definitely has question marks at QB, they have an outstanding recipe for success; an elite running back and a strong defense. The Adrian Peterson / Chester Taylor connection should be able to move the chains against even the best of defenses; and the amount of pressure on Green Bay QB Aaron Rogers is so intense that I can not imagine he has a flawless game. Vikings upset Green Bay at Lambeau, and let the boo birds and We-Want-Favre drama begin.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Minnesota

Denver (-3.0) @ Oakland (+3.0)
The Raiders are going to be one of the toughest teams in the league to handicap this year, and not only because I’m a fan. They have the talent and potential on both sides of the ball to be as good as 8 – 8, but they also have the question marks and inexperience that could lead to another 2 to 4 win season. I do know one thing; players and fans alike haven’t been this excited about a home opener in years. Cutler is prone to making mistakes, and if the Raiders can stop the run AT ALL, their secondary should be able to eat Cutler alive. In a game that could very well set the tone for the entire season, Oakland finds a way to pull it off Monday night.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Oakland

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 6 – 4 – 0 (.600)

In this section I list my top plays of the week in college football. Since I explain each of these picks in depth in my youtube videos, I’ll just list the picks here instead of typing up the commentary and repeating myself (as if once isn’t bad enough, right?)

Week 1 Video Here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fmSPJvHJesU

Southern Methodist/Rice OVER 74.5 (Win)
Florida -34.0 (Win)
USC -19.5 (Win)
Utah +3.5 (Win – ML too!)
Auburn -26.0 (Win)
Clemson -5.0 (Loss)
Arizona -27.0 (Win)
Kansas -36.5 (Loss – by 1 yard)
Colorado State +11.0 (Loss)
Tennessee -7.0 (Loss)

Week 2 Video Here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SRsLn3Oy–Q

South Carolina -10.0
Michigan -14.5
BYU -9.5
Florida Atlantic -13.5
Oklahoma State/Houston OVER 57
South Florida -12.5
South Florida/Central Florida UNDER 53

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