2008 NFL Newsletter: Dave’s Dime Week 10

By , November 7, 2008

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”
www.davesdime.com

THE PICK

Hey Everyone,

Sorry to send out two separate emails this week. I wanted to cap all the games before this Thursday night game so I could just send you one convenient email, but I did so poorly last week that I really need the extra time on the rest of the schedule to try and right the ship this week. So here is the pick for tonight’s game, and you’ll get the regular Dime with the rest of the games tomorrow morning as usual. Thanks for understanding.

Denver (+3.0) @ Cleveland (-3.0)
Believe it or not, I like Denver here. Despite being mired in a 3 game losing streak (and having failed to cover the spread in 6 straight games; not that they are worried about that), Denver is still atop the AFC West thanks in large part to their quick start and the rest of the division’s troubles. Tonight they will face first-time starter Brady Quinn, and this really is a slap to the face of the Broncos; The Browns are so confident that they can move the ball on an injured and ineffective Broncos secondary that they are willing to put in their inexperienced young quarterback on a SHORT PRACTICE WEEK. Starting Quinn off of the 10 day break would have made sense, but they like him matched up against Denver. I don’t think Denver will take kindly to that. I also believe that Cutler will be able to move the ball through the air on Cleveland’s pass defense without too much trouble. Couple the motivation of making Brady Quinn’s first start in the NFL hell on earth with a 3 game losing streak and a must win to stay atop the AFC West, and I think Denver makes for a good upset pick here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Denver

The rest will be out tomorrow! Thanks!

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”
www.davesdime.com

THE INTRO

I can usually brush off a bad week, but this one hurt really bad.

Like, Oakland Raider bad. Like, my lame attempt at humor bad.

A season riding high, it was only a matter of time before I got shot down and had a week like last week. I knew that. But still, it hurts bad to see a season’s worth of hard work go down the drain in one snake-bitten week.

If you told me at the beginning of the season that heading into week 10 I’d be 52.8% against the spread, I’d have been very happy to hear that. If you then told me I was 55.8% heading into week 9, I’d feel… well, something like I feel now.

But the lesson is a valuable one. There will be weeks when everything you touch is gold, and weeks when everything you touch is dirt. The separation between winners and losers is a mere couple of percentage points. How hard are you willing to fight for that extra 1 or 2%?

I fight really hard for it. And it isn’t necessarily going to be a winning fight; but I can promise you that I do fight awfully hard. And no matter what I end up doing, win or lose, I hope you all continue to enjoy my write ups and insight.

Now that I’m in a sentimental mood, I’m going to go watch Rudy. I’ll cry a bit. Cry more when I realize that I’m watching Rudy alone and I need to do something with my life. Then I will eat some candy to feel better. Then I’ll try to pick some winners.

Fortunately for you, time lapses don’t show up in writing. So you can skip my breakdown and move on… probably best for everyone involved.

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 4 – 10 – 0 (.286)
Without the spread: 10 – 4 – 0 (.714)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 0 – 2 – 0 (.000)

Season

With the spread: 67 – 60 – 3 (.528)
Without the spread: 82 – 48 – 0 (.631)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 11 – 3 – 0 (.786)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD:

New York Jets (+5.5) @ Buffalo (-5.5) W
Baltimore (+1.5) @ Cleveland (-1.5) W
Arizona (-3.0) @ St. Louis (+3.0) W
Miami (+3.0) @ Denver (-3.0) W

THE BAD:

Dallas (+9.0) @ New York Giants (-9.0) L
Atlanta (-3.0) @ Oakland (+3.0) L
Philadelphia (-6.5) @ Seattle (+6.5) L
Pittsburgh (+2.0) @ Washington (-2.0) L

THE COULD HAVE GONE EITHER WAY/NOT MY WAY THIS WEEK:

Houston (+4.5) @ Minnesota (-4.5) L
Green Bay (+4.5) @ Tennessee (-4.5) L
New England (+6.0) @ Indianapolis (-6.0) L

THE “WHAT THE $%^@”?:

Three of the league’s worst teams decide to show up, while my Oak, Dal, and Sea picks fail miserably.

Detroit (+12.5) @ Chicago (-12.5) L
Jacksonville (-7.5) @ Cincinnati (+7.5) L
Tampa Bay (-9.0) @ Kansas City (+9.0) L

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

THURSDAY

Denver (+3.0) @ Cleveland (-3.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Denver (Win)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Denver (Win)

SUNDAY

Tennessee (-3.0) @ Chicago (+3.0)
My magical philosophy picks finally let me down last week, making me take losses on two terrible teams that were very obviously overmatched. Frustrating as it may have been, I can’t abandon what’s gotten me here; the outside the box thinking on these picks has had quite a bit of success this season. So instead of playing with fear, I’ll go back to the well this week. On one side we have an undefeated Tennessee Titans team that has a downright scary defense and running game, coming off of impressive back to back wins against Indianapolis and Green Bay. On the other side, we have a Chicago Bears team that certainly isn’t a pushover, but is coming off of two very shaky wins against a mediocre Minnesota team and a downright terrible Lions team. Even more worrisome is Kyle Orton’s injury, putting Rex Grossman back in the spotlight against the league’s toughest defense. Why is Tennessee only giving up 3 points here? They are clearly the best team in the NFL, and they should manhandle Rex Grossman. This has trap game written all over it; strange spread, Tennessee faces hated rival Jacksonville next week (if you believe in looking ahead), and they’ve got to lose at some point; this just might be the week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Chicago

Jacksonville (-6.5) @ Detroit (+6.5)
This one is just simple logic. Detroit may still be winless, but they have strung together four straight respectable losses (by margins of 2, 7, 8, and 4) and the addition of Daunte Culpepper definitely shouldn’t hurt. Jacksonville, meanwhile, has played 8 games this season, all decided by 7 points or less. Would I like to take Jacksonville to break out of their slump against a weak Detroit team? Yes, I would. But at some point, perhaps we have to accept that a slump that lasts half a season may not be a slump at all; it may just be what the team is.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Jacksonville

Seattle (+8.0) @ Miami (-8.0)

Something tells me a long write up isn’t really necessary for me to explain why I like a surging pass happy Dolphins team at home over a reeling, injury-filled, pitiful-pass-defense Seahawks team on the road. Was that adequate enough?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Miami

Green Bay (+2.5) @ Minnesota (-2.5)

These games just annoy me to no end. You have Minnesota, who can run the ball well and can’t defend against the pass, and Green Bay, who can pass the ball well and can’t defend against the run. Feel free to ignore my pick and go flip a coin. I’ll be taking the Packers, simply because in what should be a close game, I’d rather have my money on Aaron Rodgers than Gus Frerotte.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Green Bay

Baltimore @ Houston (Pick’em)

Houston’s passing attack is formidable, but I believe Baltimore’s defense will be able to slow it down a bit. And perhaps the bigger story is Baltimore’s offense; lost in all of the media love for Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco is putting together a fantastic rookie season and has given the Ravens a vertical passing game that they have sorely lacked for years. Both teams will put up some points, but I think Baltimore comes out on top here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

St. Louis (+9.0) @ New York Jets (-9.0)

So we are throwing St. Louis under the bus because they got beat by a very good Arizona Cardinals team? Or are we overvaluing the Jets coming off of their upset in Buffalo? Either way, 9 points is way too many; St. Louis has shown me enough their last four games in beating Washington, beating Dallas, and staying close with New England that they can compete. Bulger should be able to pass on this team, and at least keep it close; especially if Favre keeps his interception-returned-for-a-TD streak going.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Jets

New Orleans (+1.5) @ Atlanta (-1.5)

I love what Matt Ryan is doing in his rookie season as much as anyone, but I think the Saints are the pick here. Drew Brees is quietly (and it is only quiet because New Orleans is only 4 – 4) putting together a remarkable season, and I don’t think that the Falcons have the defense to stop him. Do the Saints have the defense to stop Ryan? No, not really. But in what should be a true shootout, I’ll take the veteran Brees to get the last score and come out on top.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *New Orleans

Buffalo (+3.5) @ New England (-3.5)

Buffalo has fallen from grace quite a bit, losing 2 straight and 3 of their last 4 games. But I’m not willing to write them off just yet; those losses were cross country in Arizona, a tough Miami team in Miami, and in my opinion just catching the Jets at the wrong time. Not that there is ever a “right” time to face New England in New England. But New England’s pass defense is just so so, and I actually think Buffalo matches up pretty well here. I think Trent Edwards is going to have a big day and surprise a lot of people, and the Bills will come out on top.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Buffalo

Carolina (-9.5) @ Oakland (+9.5)

Oakland is in complete shambles right now. They were embarrassingly bad last week against Atlanta and there isn’t any reason to believe that Carolina can’t do the same. I liked the DeAngelo Hall waiving a lot, but the players didn’t, and it is causing a pretty clear riff in the locker room. As if they aren’t bad enough already, they didn’t need even more reason to give up on themselves. Carolina is walking into a great situation to win comfortably. I’d love to philosophy pick the Raiders, but I just can’t.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina

Indianapolis (+3.0) @ Pittsburgh (-3.0)

I can never quite figure out Pittsburgh this year, and there is still no definitive word on Roethlisberger’s status. With Willie Parker out too, it is hard to figure out where Pittsburgh will be getting their offense from. The Colts meanwhile have been a major disappointment all year that I don’t feel the least bit comfortable picking. But maybe they can build on their win over New England and start their playoff push. With Pittsburgh’s two best offensive players out, what better time then now to beat the Steelers? In a move I will likely regret, I’ll take the Colts.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Indianapolis

Kansas City (+15.5) @ San Diego (-15.5)

It makes perfect sense. San Diego fresh off of a bye has had ample opportunity to prepare for this game, and are poised to make their routine late-season run. They face the league’s worst rushing defense with Tomlinson and Sproles likely licking their chops. A blowout win is a very real possibility. Here’s the thing though; not only has Kansas City kept its last few games close against the Jets and Bucs (a game they should have won), but this rivalry doesn’t exactly produce too many lopsided victories. In their last 15 meetings this game has not had a winner decided by more than 15 points. The Chargers haven’t beaten the Chiefs by more than 14 in over 10 years. And has San Diego really even been that overpowering this year? I may get burned here but I’m more than happy to take my chances with this spread.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

New York Giants (+3.0) @ Philadelphia (-3.0)
This is an extremely tough game that I can easily see going either way. I’m going to take my chances on the Eagles though. I believe they are capable of slowing down the Giants’ running game, the environment should be nice and hostile, and McNabb should be able to put together a big day. Sorry to not break this game down better, it is really more of a gut feeling than anything else. Hard to point out weaknesses on the Giants when they don’t really have any.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

MONDAY

San Francisco (+9.5) @ Arizona (-9.5)
When this game was scheduled during the preseason, I’m sure the 49ers were projected to be a whole lot better than they are now. Unfortunately for them, and the viewing public, they aren’t. The Cardinal’s rushing defense and their likely early lead should be good enough to force the 49ers to start throwing the ball; and that is usually where things get ugly. Not much reason to believe the Cardinals won’t be scoring easily, either. Even minus the big number, I do believe Arizona is the easy pick on Monday night.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 47 – 41 – 0 (.534)

Week 11 Video Here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=psKUi6HMhWM

Northern Illinois +9.5 (Loss)
Toledo/Akron Over 54.5 (Win)
Arkansas +12.0
Army +11.0
Southern Miss/UCF Over 49.5
Arizona -41.0
Arkansas State -2.5
Arizona State -14.0
Tulane/Houston Over 56

Have a great weekend and good luck everybody!
————————————————————
Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!

Comments are closed

DavesDime.com by Dave Consolazio