Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”
www.davesdime.com

THE PICK

*Before reading this, just remember that there are no locks in sports, and anything can happen on any given day. Don’t go blindly betting your bankroll on this game just because I love it.*

Indianapolis (-6.0) @ Jacksonville (+6.0)
Wow. Wow. Wow. I’m just in complete awe of this game. This is a philosophy pick dream. You really can’t draw it up any better than this one. Keep in mind that any game that meets any of the following criteria, just a single one, is a game I’d likely take as a philosophy pick. But this gem has plenty more than just one:

1. HEAVY ONE-SIDED ACTION – 85% of the public is on Indianapolis with the spread, 86% are on them ML.
2. REVERSE LINE MOVEMENT – Despite massive action on Indianapolis, the line has moved from -6.5 to -6.0, inviting even more action on Indianapolis.
3. TWO STRAIGHT 30+ POINT WINS – If a team has won two straight games scoring 30 points or more, they often have offensive let downs as it is hard to be that in sync and productive in the NFL week in and week out.
4. TEAM THAT NEEDS A WIN VS. LOUSY TEAM – Learn anything from last week? Every season, the last few weeks, hopeless underdogs play carefree and are very dangerous in spoiler roles against opponents who need wins that have all the pressure on them.
5. DIVISIONAL HOME UNDERDOG LATE IN SEASON – Similar to above, these games are even more ugly and upset prone when the lousy team with nothing to lose happens to be playing a division rival at home.

There will be a very high number of philosophy picks this week, but none will be as beautiful as this one. If you are an outside the box philosophy thinker like myself, you should be salivating at this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Jacksonville

This weekend’s NFL picks and this week’s college bowl picks will be out Friday!

Good Luck!

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”
www.davesdime.com

THE INTRO

Well its tough to find a much more brutal way to lose money than that Jaguars loss last night.

But it still illustrates a point that you will see is very prevalent as the season comes to a close; teams that have nothing left to play for often give teams that have everything left to play for huge fits.

There will be a lot of philosophy picks this week, because while everyone else will be betting these teams because they “need wins and the other team doesn’t care”, I’ll be picking against them.

Last week we saw teams with nothing left to play for go 6 – 2 against the spread against teams fighting for something.

Thursday night, we saw the Jags winning 24 – 14 at the end of 3, and it took a minor miracle for the Colts to cover the spread. Not every team will get so lucky, and not every team has Peyton Manning.

Embrace the chaos. This is what makes the NFL so fun.

And for you college fans, I have this week’s bowl games covered in this newsletter as well.

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 6 – 8 – 2 (.429)
Without the spread: 12 – 4 – 0 (.750)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 1 – 0 – 0 (1.000)

Season

With the spread: 114 – 104 – 6 (.523)
Without the spread: 143 – 80 – 1 (.641)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 18 – 6 – 0 (.750)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

THURSDAY

Indianapolis (-6.0) @ Jacksonville (+6.0)

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Jacksonville (Loss)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Jacksonville (Loss)

SATURDAY

Baltimore (+4.0) @ Dallas (-4.0)
This is a tough game to call, as Dallas has seemingly found a groove and will be very difficult to beat, especially at home. But I don’t think Baltimore should be thrown out due to last week; they just ran into the league’s toughest defense. Dallas has been picking it up on defense, but they are still nowhere near as stingy as Pittsburgh, and Baltimore should be able to score on them. Baltimore’s defense is still as stout and scary as ever, even if they did fold on the last drive of the Steelers game. I think asking Dallas to win this game by more than 4 is asking a lot; I can see either Baltimore winning this game outright, or Dallas winning on a late FG or go ahead TD. I don’t really see a comfortable Dallas win here, so I’ll take the points.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

SUNDAY

Miami (-3.5) @ Kansas City (+3.5)
The first of many of the philosophy picks I talked about in the intro. Miami needs the win, Kansas City has nothing to play for and nothing to lose; I’ll take the loose team in the spoiler role.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Kansas City

New Orleans (-7.0) @ Detroit (+7.0)
As tempted as I am to take Detroit here trying to avoid the winless season, I’d also argue that New Orleans, now out of the playoff race, is almost equally motivated to not being the first team to lose to these guys. Indoors, on turf, the Saints should be able to run their offense as they please and cover this spread.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

Cincinnati (+3.0) @ Cleveland (-3.0)
After watching Ken Dorsey play football, its pretty clear to me that the Cleveland Browns offense is done for the year. Not that Ryan Fitzpatrick is much better, but the Bengals are coming off of an upset win over Washington and I believe they have what it takes to build on that win and hand their rivals a loss this Sunday.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Cincinnati

San Diego (+3.5) @ Tampa Bay (-3.5)
This philosophy pick is another tailor made one, much like the ill-fated Jacksonville game was Thursday night. Everybody is betting on Tampa Bay here, as San Diego has been a big disappointment all year. Tampa Bay is 6 – 0 at home, San Diego is 0 – 3 against NFC South opponents, all reasons why the public is pounding Tampa Bay. But you know one of my favorite philosophy picks is betting against a team that has played in 3 straight divisional games; and Tampa Bay has done just that, playing three tough division games back to back to back against New Orleans, Carolina, and Atlanta. The Bucs should be pretty bruised up after that stretch, especially this late in the season. They are ripe for an upset, and I think San Diego gets it here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*San Diego

Pittsburgh (-2.0) @ Tennessee (+2.0)

Another game simply too tough to call. Two excellent defenses, playing for home field advantage, should be a very gritty football game. I’m going to take the Steelers, simply because you can not move the football on the ground against them, and QB VS. QB, they definitely have the edge.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

San Francisco (-5.0) @ St. Louis (+5.0)

As a general rule, I like to bet home underdogs in division rivals this late in the season… but two teams completely out of it, this game comes down to nothing more than pride. And if the second half of the season is any indication, San Francisco has got a lot more of it. Besides, I’ve got enough philosophy picks this week!
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco

Arizona (+7.5) @ New England (-7.5)

7.5 seems like a lot of points, but I really can’t bring myself to take Arizona. Heading up to the bitter cokl that is way out of their element, it will be very easy as the game wears on for them to say to themselves “We are already in the playoffs, who needs this?” and continue to get pounded by a team that is playing for their playoff lives. They don’t meet the philosophy criteria because Arizona is NOT a lowly opponent.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

Buffalo (+7.0) @ Denver (-7.0)

Lowly opponent with nothing left to play for versus team that desperately needs this win. Get used to this recipe. As Buffalo showed us against the Jets last week, they aren’t just going to roll over; they have a little fight left in the tank. As a plus side of being on the Bills, if Tampa Bay does beat San Diego, Denver will see this and know they have their playoff spot wrapped up, and they can rest this week. If San Diego wins, they will be that much more under pressure and prone to make mistakes.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver

New York Jets (-4.5) @ Seattle (+4.5)
I don’t even have to waste my time with a write up on this one, do I? Same story as the others, helped by the fact that the Jets have been slumping big time, and Seattle has perennially been a great home team. Also, the Jets have already lost when traveling out west to San Diego, Oakland, and San Francisco; would them struggling in this game really be a huge shocker?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Jets

Houston (-7.0) @ Oakland (+7.0)

Oakland has, unfortunately for me, mailed this season in. Houston, meanwhile, has been surging. The philosophy part of me says okay, Houston just beat Tennessee in an emotional game, they are due for a big letdown… and Oakland was just crushed last week in embarrassing fashion, they will be out for payback this week… but honestly, how many times can I make compelling arguments for the Raiders only for them to go out and lose by 20+ every week? I just can’t do it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston

Philadelphia (-5.0) @ Washington (+5.0)

Taking the road less traveled isn’t always fun. Trying to figure out in your mind how a team that has been cruising along as well as the Eagles have is going to have trouble with a team like Washington (who just lost to Cinci last week) is awfully tough. Actually picking the Redskins? Even tougher. But this stadium will be rocking with the chance to eliminate their hated rivals from playoff contention. Especially after their loss last week, Washington should put together one of the best games of their season next week; and it should be enough to cover.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

Atlanta (+3.0) @ Minnesota (-3.0)

Tough game between two hungry teams. I’m going to take the Vikings though; they are seemingly on a mission, Tavaris Jackson looked good last week, and the team seems to be clicking on both sides of the ball. In Atlanta I might go the other way, but this city is hungry for the playoffs and the building should be rocking pretty hard. I think Minnesota will find a way to come out on top in this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Minnesota

Carolina (+3.0) @ New York Giants (-3.0)
The Giants are beat up and broken, as I knew they would be eventually after the daunting schedule they have faced. Without Brandon Jacobs, they just aren’t the same dominant team. Even with his likely return Sunday, he will be nowhere close to 100%. Like Tampa Bay, the Giants have played in 3 straight division rivalry games and are now favored, a spot that I instantly bet against. It rings even truer in a division like the NFC East, which is arguable the most physical in football. I don’t think the Giants will have their best effort in them Sunday, and Carolina has the capability to capitalize on it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Carolina

MONDAY

Green Bay (+4.0) @ Chicago (-4.0)
I suppose this game could arguably meet the same criteria that led me to take Jacksonville, Kansas City, Buffalo, and Seattle, as Green Bay is done for and the Bears are fighting for their playoff lives. But in the games mentioned, all but Buffalo were at home, which plays a huge part in what makes them so tempting. And Buffalo is getting a touchdown. Green Bay at only +4.0 here just isn’t tempting enough to take. This may come back to haunt me, but I believe Chicago matches up well against Green Bay, and they should win this game and cover the spread.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago

Hope you like your upsets!

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

EVERY BOWL GAME 08 – 09
Season: 0 – 0 – 0 (.000)

EagleBank Bowl
Navy (+3.0) vs. Wake Forest (-3.0)
Navy is a tough team to cap, as it really just comes down to how well they execute. If they run the ball as effectively as they are capable of and play well on defense, they are a tough team for anyone to beat. Two straight shutout victories to close out the season can vouch for that. But I think the strong finish made their number a little too low here; Wake has a great defense and a strong enough passing game to score on Navy. When these two teams faced during the regular season, Navy won by 7. In that game, Riley Skinner threw 4 interceptions. It took a particularly miserable game by Wake for Navy to win; I expect Skinner to be a lot smarter and a lot more precise this time around, and exact revenge for the regular season loss.
THE PICK: Wake Forest (-3.0)

New Mexico Bowl
Fresno State (-3.0) vs. Colorado State (+3.0)
Many times in bowl season, it just comes down to who wants it more, and I believe that team is going to be Colorado State. Fresno State came into this year off of a 9 win season (including a bowl win over Georgia Tech) and had aspirations of being a BCS buster type of team and competing for the WAC title. Instead, they floundered all season, especially on defense. This has been a disappointing year and this is a disappointing bowl berth. Colorado State meanwhile hasn’t been bowling since 3 years ago, and will be thrilled at this opportunity to play some post season football. Fresno State was largely overrated all year, and I think they are in this spot, too.
THE PICK: Colorado State (+3.0)

magicJack St. Petersburg Bowl
Memphis (+11.5) vs. South Florida (-11.5)
If you followed my college football season, you know that South Florida is my Achilles Heel. I just can’t figure this team out to save my life. As a general rule though, teams playing at home for bowl games tend to play very well, which works in South Florida’s favor. They are also a significantly better team on paper than Memphis, and Memphis will be starting their 3rd string QB. IF South Florida can put together 4 solid quarters there really isn’t any reason they can’t cover here, but you just never know the effort you are going to get out of them.
THE PICK: South Florida (-11.5)

Pioneer Las Vegas Bowl
BYU (+3.0) vs. Arizona (-3.0)
Arizona is one of the most overrated teams in college football. Yes, they are a decent football team and are certainly capable of putting up points, but really, take a look over their schedule. Their wins came against Idaho (2 – 10), Toledo (3 – 9), UCLA (4 – 8), Washington (0 – 12), Cal (8- 4), Washington State (2 – 11), and Arizona State (5 – 7). Other then the Cal win, do any of these wins impress you at all? In a halfway decent conference, there is no way Arizona is even bowl eligible. BYU meanwhile lost only to two defensive powerhouses in TCU and Utah, and looked great otherwise. BYU has played will in these Las Vegas Bowls over the last few years, and quite frankly I think they are the better team here.
THE PICK: BYU (+3.0)

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Troy (-4.5) vs. Southern Miss (+4.5)
This game is Troy’s for the taking. Troy get up big for big games, as they always seem to play better when they are televised or playing against a top notch opponent. What better opportunity to play big than in a bowl game? Last season I argued adamantly that they were snubbed badly by not getting invited to go to a bowl even though they were bowl eligible at 8 – 4 with 3 of their losses to SEC teams! This year they do get the chance to go bowling, and I expect them to make the most of it with a big win.
THE PICK: Troy (-4.5)

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
TCU (-2.5) vs. Boise State (+2.5)
This should be a fantastic game, easily the best of the first week of bowl season. You have a well rounded undefeated Boise State team facing a tough defensive team in TCU. TCU had only two losses on the season, a close one against undefeated Utah and a loss against Oklahoma both on the road. They did hold that vaunted Sooners offense to 35, which was very impressive. I believe TCU is the pick here; I think they are a little grittier and a little tougher, and they can wear a team like Boise State down as the game goes on. I was surprised to see TCU as the favorite, was hoping the undefeated season made bettors take Boise State here; but even minus a couple points, TCU is the side I want to be on.
THE PICK: TCU (-2.5)

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl
Notre Dame (-1.5) vs Hawaii (+1.5)
This game has a lot of philosophy aspects to it. First of all, it is a home game for Hawaii, which bodes well generally in bowl games as I mentioned in the South Florida write up. Secondly, even though Notre Dame this year might be happy to go to any bowl, a prestigious program like Notre Dame often does have trouble getting up for a game like this; a meaningless first week bowl game. Lastly, Hawaii got destroyed in their last bowl game, ending the season on a bad note and sending thousand’s of fans that spent good money on tickets and travel home miserable. At home for this bowl game, they have a chance to make it up to all those fans they disappointed last year, and I think they will do just that.
THE PICK: Hawaii (+1.5)

Motor City Bowl
Florida Atlantic (+6.0) vs. Central Michigan (-6.0)
Central Michigan had put a nice season together until they lost their last two games, including a very ugly loss to Eastern Michigan. Florida Atlantic was a disappointment this season too, as they were the odds-on favorites to win the Sun Belt Conference and they just couldn’t put it all together. People are taking FAU and the points here due to Central Michigan’s lousy finish and the fact that FAU seemingly “put it together” in the second half of the season, but did they really? After winning only one of their first 5 games, they won 4 straight; Barely scratching by Western Kentucky (2 – 10) and Louisiana-Monroe (4 – 8), on the road, and then beating North Texas (1 – 11) and UL Lafayette (6 – 6) at home. Sorry I’m not super impressed. They barely beat Florida International (5 – 7) at home to finish out the year. Did they “turn it around”, or just face a bunch of beatable teams? Florida Atlantic didn’t beat a team with a record over .500 this year, and I don’t think they’ll start now, especially in a virtual home game for Central Michigan at Ford Field.
THE PICK: Central Michigan (-6.0)

Have a great weekend and good luck everybody!
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