Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”
www.davesdime.com

THE INTRO

Clutch.

Tough thing to describe, but everyone understands it. When the game is on the line, when your back is against the wall, when all the cards are on the table, when (insert your favorite cliche here), some people just step up and make it happen in these situations.

So with all of my loyal readers reading, as well as about 50+ new ones that have signed up, how clutch would a nice 11 – 5 record have been to kick off the season?

Naaah. This is me we are talking about. Instead of starting strong, why not bury myself in an 8 games under .500 hole right out of the gate?

I guess there are pros and cons to sucking this bad in week 1.

Cons:
1) I look like I suck at picking pro football… sometimes true.
2) I look like I suck at life (which includes pro football)… this one I actually don’t disagree with.
3) I have to work my way out of a massive hole after just one week… always fun.

Pros:
1) I get pity/am like an underdog story.
2) I’m kind of like the failure brother of the straight A student that gets nothing but F’s and D’s. Now when I get a C+, mom and dad are so proud of me that they buy me ice cream, while straight A student wonders why he never gets ice cream for less then an A…

But I digress.

I’ll go over where I went wrong on the recap section, but moving on, lets try and earn that C+ and ice cream this week!

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 4 – 12 – 0 (.250)
Without the spread: 6 – 10 – 0 (.375)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 1 – 1 – 0 (.500)
**Outright Upsets**: 1 – 6 – 0 (.143)

Season
With the spread: 4 – 12 – 0 (.250)
Without the spread: 6 – 10 – 0 (.375)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 1 – 1 – 0 (.500)
**Outright Upsets**: 1 – 6 – 0 (.143)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD:

Washington (+4.0) @ New York Giants (-4.0) W
Houston (+6.5) @ Pittsburgh (-6.5) W
Jacksonville (-3.0) @ Tennessee (+3.0) W
Dallas (-5.5) @ Cleveland (+5.5) W

THE BAD:

St. Louis (+7.5) @ Philadelphia (-7.5) L
Seattle (+1.0) @ Buffalo (-1.0) L
Denver (-3.0) @ Oakland (+3.0) L

THE COULD HAVE GONE EITHER WAY/NOT MY WAY THIS WEEK:

Tampa Bay (+3.0) @ New Orleans (-3.0) L
N.Y. Jets (-3.0) @ Miami (+3.0) L
Minnesota (+2.5) @ Green Bay (-2.5) L

THE “WHAT THE $%^@”?:

Detroit (-3.0) @ Atlanta (+3.0) L
Cincinnati (-1.5) @ Baltimore (+1.5) L
Chicago (+9.5) @ Indianapolis (-9.5) L

I wouldn’t expect to win all 3 of these. I could even LIVE with 1 – 2. I know there is a lot more to the game then just QB, but you really mean to tell me that in Week 1 I’m supposed to pick Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, and Kyle Orton against Carson Palmer, Jon Kitna, and Peyton Manning??

Then of course in the one game I DO take the inexperienced starter…
Arizona (-2.5) @ San Francisco (+2.5) L

Brady’s injury made this pick irrelevant in a hurry…
Kansas City (+16.5) @ New England (-16.5) L

And minus their most explosive offensive player, the Panthers travel into San Diego and win?
Carolina (+9.0) @ San Diego (-9.0) L

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

Don’t have too many upsets this week… can some favorites hold up please?

SUNDAY

Buffalo (+5.5) @ Jacksonville (-5.5)
Jacksonville at home, looking to make sure they don’t fall to 0 – 2… very dangerous to pick against. Still, I look at two defense first hard nosed teams like this facing off and its always hard to see these types of games decided by much more then a FG. Jacksonville may cover here, but I’ll give Buffalo some respect and say they keep it close here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Jacksonville

Chicago (+3.0) @ Carolina (-3.0)
Tough tough game with both teams coming off of big upsets here. Have to side with Carolina here though; they did a great job containing the run against San Diego and should do a better job containing Forte then Indy did (can’t do much worse). This forces Chicago to get out of their comfort zone and start throwing the ball; hilarity ensues.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina

Tennessee (+1.0) @ Cincinnati (-1.0)
I guess all of this Vince Young drama in the media is making people overlook the fact that Tennessee just beat Jacksonville, and Cinci got smashed by Baltimore. Tennessee’s defense is every bit as good (if not better) then the Ravens defense that contained Cincinnati last week, and their offense (yes, even with Kerry Collins) is better, too. Looks like an easy pick to me.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Tennessee

New Orleans @ Washington (PK)
Another tough game so early in the season… I really hate to pick against New Orleans again as they looked pretty sharp last week, but losing Marques Colston will be a big hit to their offense, and they do have a slew of other injuries as well. I’m still not so sure that Washington will be able to score much, but I’ll take a shot on their secondary and their home field advantage.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Washington

Green Bay (-3.0) @ Detroit (+3.0)
Okay, I get it. Because Green Bay doesn’t really have a running back that can exploit Detroit’s sad run defense, they are only a 3 point favorite here? Hmm. Call me crazy, but I get the feeling Green Bay will find their way to the endzone just fine in this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

New York Giants (-8.0) @ St. Louis (+8.0)
I’d really love to find some rationale to take this huge home underdog, but unfortunately I saw the “highlights” from the Philadelphia game. It may not get that ugly here, but really no reason for me to believe that the Giants won’t be able to have a field day on offense and cover this spread.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New York Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Giants

Oakland (+3.5) @ Kansas City (-3.5)
This game is really killing me. I simply can not believe the Raiders are as bad as they looked last week, especially not on defense. Not to mention, Damon Huard is no Jay Cutler and the Raiders should have a better day offensively this week. I also believe, and this isn’t just the fan in me talking, that the Raiders are the better team on paper. All that said, if Eddie Royal can torch the Raiders as bad as he did, what can Dwayne Bowe and Tony Gonzalez do? And can the Raiders stop Larry Johnson? Something tells me the Raiders are the pick here, but it sure isn’t logic or reason. Until the Raiders show they can turn potential into results on the field, I can’t rationalize picking them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Kansas City

Indianapolis (-1.0) @ Minnesota (+1.0)
I don’t know where to go here. Peyton Manning VS. a vulnerable pass defense and Adrian Peterson VS. a vulnerable rush defense. Two teams motivated not to fall to 0 – 2. This game can go so many ways. And the spread indicates that. I’m tempted to flip a coin, but you know what? The tiebreaker for me here is Peyton Manning. He is far too competitive to let the team fall to 0 – 2, which would be deadly with Tennessee and Jacksonville breathing down their necks. I think?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

San Francisco (+7.0) @ Seattle (-7.0)
Can’t disagree with the spread here. As much as 7 points looks like a lot, San Francisco’s offense will have trouble against Seattle’s defense, and Seattle will welcome the SF defense after having their hands full with a tough Buffalo team last week. They should win big at home in this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle

Atlanta (+7.0) @ Tampa Bay (-7.0)
Atlanta will not be able to do anything close to what they did against Detroit’s defense this week. But will Tampa Bay really score enough to cover this spread? Last week I picked against rookie Matt Ryan and he played well, I’m sure taking him this week he’ll go through his growing pains on my watch… but I think Atlanta can keep this game respectable if they play smart.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay

Miami (+6.0) @ Arizona (-6.0)
Miami was 8 yards away from upsetting the Jets and making me look smart (yeah, like 5 – 11 is smart), but they showed some serious flaws. Not that this should surprise anyone, they still do have a long way to go. I still think I’ll turn to them a few times this year, but with as bad as the secondary looked against the Jets, do they have any chance against the dynamic wide receivers in Arizona? Probably not.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona

New England (+1.5) @ New York Jets (-1.5)
Played it pretty safe to this point, haven’t I? Here’s a curve ball for you. New England, without Tom Brady, wins in New York this week. How? Why? Blasphemy? Believe it or not, this team does have more talent then just Tom Brady… and New York showed some weakness last weak against Miami. But more importantly then all that, this is strictly a motivation thing; how do you think New England feels hearing all week about how Tom Brady’s injury means the end of their season and they are now underdogs? This is their week to prove they do not need Tom Brady. And don’t get me wrong, they DO need him… but for this week, they will not accept a loss.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *^New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *^New England

San Diego @ Denver (PK)
San Diego loses the heart and soul of their defense in Shawne Merriman, and under Norv Turner they have been slow starters. Denver has to be flying high, and despite the fact that San Diego will be significantly more challenging then the Raiders were, the Broncos also get Brandon Marshall back this week and should play with a lot of confidence at home. Moving to 2 – 0 and making the heavily favored to win the AFC West Chargers 0 – 2 would be a huge boost for this team, especially with the Chiefs and Raiders looking like early non-factors.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver

Pittsburgh (-6.0) @ Cleveland (+6.0)
If the New England pick was a curve ball, here comes a knuckle-curve gyro ball. The book of philosophy was written for games just like this. Where to begin…

– Bet AGAINST a team coming off of a huge blowout win (Pittsburgh)
– Bet FOR a team coming off of a huge blowout loss (Cleveland)
– Revenge Factor (Pittsburgh has won in their last 9 meetings)
– Bet FOR a team that is a home underdog playing at home for second week in a row
– Bet AGAINST strange looking threads (shouldn’t Cleveland be more than +6, considering Pittsburgh is 7 – 1 – 1 ATS in their last 9 meetings and they looked so dominant last week and Cleveland looked so bad?)

Is Pittsburgh the better team? Of course. But my philosophy picks are 60% winners ATS, compared to right around a coin flip without them. As such, I can’t pass up on an opportunity this big. I’ll take it one step further… and take the straight upset.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *^Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *^Cleveland

MONDAY

Philadelphia (+7.0) @ Dallas (-7.0)
This game can go so many ways. Both teams have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball… this could be a defensive battle OR a shootout. Either way, when it comes to NFC East rivalry games, I don’t give up a touchdown’s worth of points very often.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

Baltimore (+4.5) @ Houston (-4.5)
Ok, congrats Joe Flacco, you got me last week against Cincinnati. Have fun in your first road game against Mario Williams and the Texans on Monday Night. Houston may not be the toughest team around, but I still don’t believe the Ravens are legit just because they beat a bad Bengals team at home. This game will be a good test for them, but I see Houston winning it by a TD or more.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 8 – 9 – 0 (.470)

Week 3 Video Here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rvl4AR0FwkQ

Iowa State +13.5
Clemson -18.5
Brigham Young -8.0
North Texas +42.0
Utah -24.0
Washington State/Baylor OVER 44.0
Nevada/Missouri UNDER 69.5
Oregon/Purdue OVER 60.0
Oklahoma/Washington OVER 62.0

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