2008 NFL Newsletter: Dave’s Dime Week 3

By , September 19, 2008

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”
www.davesdime.com

THE INTRO

Last weekend was kind of like getting out of debt.

You owe $2000. You go to Vegas and hit a jackpot on a slot machine for $2000.

You pay off your debt, and now you are back to even.

Are you happy you are out of debt? Sure you are. But you can’t help but wish you HADN’T BEEN IN DEBT IN THE FIRST PLACE, so you had that $2000 for yourself!

I’ve seriously never seen anything like this. Yes, my picks can be streaky, but Week 2 I was 2 – 5 in college and 4 – 12 in pro; a combined 6 – 17. 26% winners. Week 3 I go 6 – 3 college, 11 – 3 – 1 pro; 17 – 6 – 1. 74% winners.

Very interesting way to arrive at 23 – 23 – 1 in two weeks. As I look at this week’s schedule, I can’t help but wonder which side of me is going to show up; my oracle side, or my blindfolded-swinging-a-bat-at-random side.

I just hope I’ll be shining my crystal ball this weekend instead of shattering it with an errant swing.

Let’s get started.

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 11 – 3 – 1 (.786)
Without the spread: 11 – 4 – 0 (.733)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 2 – 0 – 0 (1.000)
**Outright Upsets**: 2 – 1 – 0 (.667)

Season
With the spread: 15 – 15 – 0 (.500)
Without the spread: 17 – 14 – 0 (.548)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 3 – 1 – 0 (.750)
**Outright Upsets**: 3 – 7 – 0 (.300)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD:

Buffalo (+5.5) @ Jacksonville (-5.5) W
Tennessee (+1.0) @ Cincinnati (-1.0) W
New Orleans @ Washington (PK) W
Green Bay (-3.0) @ Detroit (+3.0) W
New York Giants (-8.0) @ St. Louis (+8.0) W
Indianapolis (-1.0) @ Minnesota (+1.0) W
Miami (+6.0) @ Arizona (-6.0) W
New England (+1.5) @ New York Jets (-1.5) W
San Diego @ Denver (PK) W
Pittsburgh (-6.0) @ Cleveland (+6.0) W
Philadelphia (+7.0) @ Dallas (-7.0) W

THE BAD:

Atlanta (+7.0) @ Tampa Bay (-7.0) L

THE COULD HAVE GONE EITHER WAY/NOT MY WAY THIS WEEK:

San Francisco (+7.0) @ Seattle (-7.0) L

THE “WHAT THE $%^@”?:

Oakland (+3.5) @ Kansas City (-3.5) L
Week 1 they look like they could be beat by a college team… Week 2 they dominate on both sides of the ball? I’m not complaining, but wow, talk about confusing.

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

Wow, every game but one is a home favorite!

SUNDAY

Arizona (+3.0) @ Washington (-3.0)
Arizona is feeling it right now, but more importantly, their secondary (and defense overall) is pretty quietly putting together a nice season. They are really not a bad unit, and Warner is looking like he did a decade ago. I think Arizona will have the same success New Orleans had on offense in this game, but do just a little more on defense to pick up the upset in this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Arizona

Kansas City (+5.5) @ Atlanta (-5.5)
After watching the entire Kansas City / Oakland game, I can tell you that Oakland was the significantly better team on both sides of the ball. What does that tell you? With third stringer Thigpen getting the start here, Kansas City should struggle a bit on offense. Not only should Turner be able to run all over this defense, but Matt Ryan actually looks pretty good, and I thought it was a respectable effort against a tough Tampa Bay last week. I really feel Atlanta wins this game very easily.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

Oakland (+9.5) @ Buffalo (-9.5)
I loved the Raiders’ effort last week. I still feel that Week 1 was the anomaly, and this Raiders team will actually be decent this year. That said, Buffalo is a step above. Very impressive wins against Seattle and Jacksonville have shown how strong Buffalo is on defense and on offense. Trent Edwards looks good. Losing Fargas also hurts the Raiders; yes McFadden and Bush are more then capable, but this is a very tough road game for two rookies to shoulder the burden. Raiders WRs haven’t helped Russell out at all, either. If Oakland plays mistake free football they have the talent to keep this one close, but I think asking a team with so much youth to play mistake-free on the road against this team might be asking a bit too much.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Buffalo

Tampa Bay (+3.0) @ Chicago (-3.0)
This game could definitely go either way. It is really going to come down to who makes less mistakes and who makes smarter decisions (I know, really dynamite analysis, doesn’t every game come down to this?) I’m going to take my chances on Tampa Bay to be that team this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Tampa Bay

Carolina (+3.5) @ Minnesota (-3.5)
Interesting spread here. Carolina has looked pretty darn good, and while they haven’t won big, they have won both of their games season. This week they get Steve Smith back, which is HUGE, as it will open everyone else up even more. Minnesota meanwhile is benching Jackson in favor of Frerotte, and Peterson had limited practice with a hamstring injury. Minnesota will definitely play hard to avoid 0 – 3, but I still can’t find any real reason to believe they win this game.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Carolina

Houston (+4.5) @ Tennessee (-4.5)
I love this… apparently people still don’t realize how good this Tennessee team is. Chris Johnson adds an explosive dynamic from the backfield, Lendale White provides the power running game, and the defense is flat out excellent. Its about time people start realizing Tennessee has been winning because of their stingy defense over the last few years, not because of Vince Young (and that isn’t a shot on VY; it simply means that him being out does NOT make this an easy team to beat). Houston will have a decent year this year, but not this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee

Cincinnati (+13.0) @ New York Giants (-13.0)
Things keep getting tougher for Cincy. Hard to get an offense going when the first three defenses you face are Baltimore, Tennessee, and New York. 13 points looks like an awful lot, but when you consider how poor this Bengals defense is and how strong the Giants have looked on offense, I just have to believe the Giants keep rolling with a blowout win here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New York Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Giants

Miami (+12.5) @ New England (-12.5)
Last week New England was one of my absolute favorite picks, and they showed you why. But that win has apparently re-kindled the nation’s betting love for this team, because here we are with a huge spread very early in the year again. The one thing the Jets and Cardinals had that the Patriots do not this week was a veteran QB with a cannon arm. I just don’t think this New England team is built to be a blowout team. I think they give Cassel the green light this week and he makes a few mistakes, and Miami keeps this close.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

St. Louis (+9.0) @ Seattle (-9.0)
Seattle had the game in their grasp last week and gave it away. This was a team that had high hopes for this season, and now all of a sudden they find themselves facing 0 – 3 with a loss here. St. Louis has to wake up eventually, but I really feel like Seattle will be a team possessed this week and get the job done in a big way.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle

Detroit (+4.5) @ San Francisco (-4.5)
While San Francisco did have a big win last week and Detroit got blown out once again, I really feel like this is a game that Detroit has a shot in. They’ve looked okay offensively; their defense is definitely spotty, but I get the feeling they will step up this week and cover the spread. I believe San Francisco will find a way to win, but it will be by a FG or so.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco

New Orleans (+5.5) @ Denver (-5.5)
Denver has looked excellent on offense this year, and despite the fact that they should have lost the San Diego game (non-call on a clear fumble), they still moved the ball virtually at will for most of the game. But their defense wasn’t exactly thrilling, and I really don’t know that they are a touchdown better then New Orleans. I’ll give them the win, but I expect a shootout in which New Orleans stays very close, and maybe even comes out on top.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver

Jacksonville (+5.0) @ Indianapolis (-5.0)
So bizarre how many of these games I am taking the home team to win and the road team with the points, but this is another one. Jacksonville came into this year a favorite to make the playoffs and they now face 0 – 3, which would be a death sentence with Indy at 2 – 1 and Tennessee at 2 – 1 or 3 – 0 in their division. Injuries have really hampered this team, but I still think they will not go down without kicking, screaming, and clawing. If they have any success on the ground, which hasn’t been hard to do against Indy this year, they will bring this one to the wire.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

Cleveland (+2.5) @ Baltimore (-2.5)
Baltimore had a very nice win against Cincinnati, but I still don’t know that they are that great of a football team. Cleveland has been held to only one TD this year, and they are too good to be contained for a 3rd straight game, even against a tough Baltimore defense. I think Cleveland forces Flacco to make a few mistakes, and they find a way to avoid 0 – 3 and win this game.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Cleveland

Pittsburgh (+3.5) @ Philadelphia (-3.5)
Philadelphia re-established themselves as a power in the NFC Monday night, and no one is questioning what a healthy Donavan McNabb can do on offense. That being said, Ben Roethlisberger should be able to put up some points on this defense if the Dallas game was any indication. They also have a strong defense. Pittsburgh is getting the short end on the spread here after a close game against Cleveland, but I’m not taking anything away from them. I actually think they find a way to win this game outright.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Pittsburgh

Dallas (-3.0) @ Green Bay (+3.0)
The only road favorite this week, and I love it. Green Bay has looked excellent this year, but very rarely are you going to get the publicly loved Cowboys, arguably the best team in the NFC, at only -3.0. I have to jump at this opportunity, especially until anyone shows any ability at all to stop them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

MONDAY

New York Jets (+9.0) @ San Diego (-9.0)
Initially I was thinking San Diego comes out ultra motivated and dominates this game… but then I looked a bit closer. This is Monday Night Football. This is Brett Favre. After Green Bay’s dominant performance opening week on MNF and all the talk that “GB doesn’t need Favre anymore with Rodgers playing like this”, you think a guy like Favre didn’t circle this game on his calendar? Furthermore, Ladanian Tomlinson is out AND what has SD done this year to give you confidence in their defense? I don’t see them falling to 0 – 3 here, but there are just too many reasons to believe the Jets keep it close to give up a huge number like 9 points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *New York Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 14 – 12 – 0 (.538)

Week 4 Video Here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t-j0eEORIkk

Florida Atlantic +7.0
Tulane -6.0
Southern Miss -9.0
Michigan State -8.5
South Florida -28.0
Tulsa -10.5
@Stanford -9.0
Boise State/Oregon UNDER 55
Miami (Ohio)/Cincinnati UNDER 47.5

Have a great weekend and good luck everybody!

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