Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”
www.davesdime.com

THE INTRO

I handle big winning weeks a little differently then most people do.

Most people go 7 – 1 – 0 College, 10 – 3 – 1 Pro for a combined 17 – 4 – 1 (81%) and feel like they are on top of the world. Like they have figured it all out. Like they’ve conquered the books.

Am I happy to see my hard work finally manifest itself in a great week? Of course I am. But I can’t afford to let myself get too cocky. I relate dominating the bookmakers to “Messin’ With Sasquatch”

For those of you that haven’t seen these commercials, click here to see one.

Every commercial starts and ends the same way; some brash young man (me) decides he’s going to take a shot at Sasquatch (Vegas)… it goes very well, and it is awesome. But what happens next? Sasquatch gets upset and beats the crap out of the guy that messed with him.

Moral of the commercials? DON’T mess with Sasquatch.

Unfortunately for me, it is one of my absolute favorite thing to do.

Long story short; enjoy the ride with me and laugh along with me at Sasquatch’s expense. But don’t go abandoning me when he shatters the windshield, grabs me, and throws me off the side of the highway.

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 10 – 3 – 1 (.769)
Without the spread: 9 – 5 – 0 (.643)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 2 – 0 – 0 (1.000)
**Outright Upsets**: 1 – 1 – 0 (.500)

Season
With the spread: 40 – 32 – 2 (.556)
Without the spread: 44 – 30 – 0 (.595)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 6 – 1 – 0 (.857)
**Outright Upsets**: 6 – 14 – 0 (.300)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD:

Tennessee (-2.5) @ Baltimore (+2.5) W
Kansas City (+9.5) @ Carolina (-9.5) W
Washington (+6.0) @ Philadelphia (-6.0) W
Indianapolis (-3.0) @ Houston (+3.0) W
Atlanta (+7.0) @ Green Bay (-7.0) W
Chicago (-3.5) @ Detroit (+3.5) W
Buffalo (+1.0) @ Arizona (-1.0) W
New England (-3.0) @ San Francisco (+3.0) W
Cincinnati (+16.5) @ Dallas (-16.5) W
Minnesota (+3.0) @ New Orleans (-3.0) W

THE BAD:

Pittsburgh (+4.0) @ Jacksonville (-4.0) L
Seattle (+7.0) @ New York Giants (-7.0) L

THE COULD HAVE GONE EITHER WAY/NOT MY WAY THIS WEEK:

Tampa Bay (+3.0) @ Denver (-3.0) T

THE “WHAT THE $%^@”?:

San Diego (-6.0) @ Miami (+6.0) L
What is going on with San Diego? Everyone is talking about the Wildcat offense, but the real story here is San Diego not being able to score on a fairly average defense.

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

SUNDAY

Chicago (-2.5) @ Atlanta (+2.5)
Pretty remarkable to consider coming into this season Atlanta was projected to win about 4 games on the year. Instead, they are 3 – 2, fresh off of a win in Green Bay, and they really do look good. All respect to them, I just don’t see them winning in this spot. Their 3 wins have come against a hobbled Green Bay and two of the absolute worst teams in the league in Kansas City and Detroit. Chicago is a big step up from the teams they’ve beaten. Not to mention, in order for Atlanta to be effective, they need to establish the run; which will be extremely tough to do against one of the league’s best rushing defenses. I think the Bears win by 2 scores or more, so I love them at only -2.5.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago

Miami (+3.0) @ Houston (-3.0)
Here’s a good ol’ fashion winning trend; bet AGAINST teams that are coming off of three straight division rivalry games that are favored the following week. It helps that Miami is clicking and playing with confidence, and the Texans always seem to find a way to lose. Houston will turn things around and get some wins as the season moves on; but it won’t be this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Miami

Baltimore (+4.0) @ Indianapolis (-4.0)
Indianapolis is a couple of bounces away from being 0 – 4. They had an improbable comeback from down 15 – 0 in Minnesota a few weeks back, and they had the miracle of all miracles last week down 27 – 10 with under 5 minutes to go (thanks to an epic collapse from Houston, and more specifically, Sage Rosenfels). This team just hasn’t been very good; bad offensive line play is making things difficult for Peyton, and bad rushing defense is keeping the ball control in the opponents favor. Baltimore is the real deal; I don’t believe it either, but this defense is as nasty as any in the league. They should do a fine job of keeping the pressure on Peyton and running the ball; and unlike the Vikings and Texans, they have the defense and the intelligence to close it out. I like them outright.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Baltimore

Detroit (+13.0) @ Minnesota (-13.0)
As if things weren’t bad enough for Detroit, go ahead and add a Kitna back injury to the mix. Bad news, considering the long ball was really the only chance Detroit had. Completely shut down last week, Peterson should have big-game on the mind against a terrible defense in Detroit. There just isn’t much reason to believe Minnesota doesn’t win this game by two touchdowns or much more.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Minnesota

Oakland (+7.0) @ New Orleans (-7.0)
Damnit, Oakland is back, another loss on my card. I will adamantly stand by the fact that at times this Oakland team has looked as good as any, but it is so difficult to predict how long the good side will play and how long the bad side will play. The main problem Oakland has had though is pressure on Russell; and I don’t think the Saints are going to get to him as often as the Chargers and Bills were able to. The return of Justin Fargas, the bye week to get a bit healthier, Lane Kiffin finally fired (like pulling a band-aid; just good to get it over with finally)… I’ll take my chances with a touchdown’s worth of points and pray that the “A-team” shows up.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

Cincinnati (+6.0) @ New York Jets (-6.0)
The Bengals have really looked pretty good in pushing both the Giants and the Cowboys to the limit, and you have to throw out the Cleveland game as Palmer wasn’t playing. Palmers health is my only concern here; if he is out, this is an automatic win for the Jets. But I’m going to assume he plays and stays in the game; and going with that assumption, I think the Bengals win this game. They have a surprisingly solid passing defense (6th in the league in yards against), they have shown they have no fear at all of playing on the road, and the Jets are overrated and have the league’s worst passing defense. If Palmer plays this game from start to finish, I think the Bengals find a way to steal their first victory.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Cincinnati

Carolina (+1.5) @ Tampa Bay (-1.5)
This game is just so damn evenly matched it is unfair. Great defenses, effective offenses. It is still a little too early in the season for me to get a good read on what these teams are made of. But so far this season, Tampa Bay has looked much better at home then they do on the road, and Carolina looks worse on the road then they do at home. Home field advantage is usually the way to go when deciding on a coin-flip, and putting Garcia back in as the starter should give Tampa Bay the extra little boost they need.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay

St. Louis (+13.5) @ Washington (-13.5)
Wow, is Washington real or what? For a team written off as doomed before the season even started, they won two impressive games against New Orleans and Arizona, then went on the road and beat Dallas as a double digit underdog and Philly as a 6 point underdog. After two intense road games against division rivals and winning both, there is absolutely no way they could have enough left in the tank to get amped up for a game against the pitiful Rams. The Rams, meanwhile, are coming fresh off of a bye with a new coach and with Bulger back in the driver’s seat; you’d better believe he’ll be ready to prove he belongs there. This is such a massive letdown situation for Washington it is unbelievable. St. Louis is the best bet of the day, and if you are a daredevil, you might even want to try the moneyline upset, too.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Washington

Jacksonville (+3.0) @ Denver (-3.0)
I get the feeling I might regret this pick, but unfortunately, I actually watched the Jacksonville/Pittsburgh game. I watched as a Pittsburgh team with no running back and an anemic offense torched Jacksonville’s secondary (which had to be LOOKING pass!) all game long. In Jacksonville! Now they head out to Denver, a tough enough place to play for both atmosphere and altitude, and a better offense in Denver should have a field day against this defense unless they improve substantially on last week’s effort. At only minus 3 here I think Denver has way too much going for them to ignore.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver

Dallas (-4.5) @ Arizona (+4.5)
Like Dallas here for a few reasons. First of all, the spread. Arizona coming off of a blowout win against undefeated Buffalo, Dallas coming off of a game where they struggled against the winless Bengals. Doesn’t +4.5 for Arizona at home look extremely enticing here? Think trap. Not to mention, Dallas lost to the hated Redskins two weeks ago and had trouble against the lowly Bengals last week, and the media is having a field day with the Pacman Jones story and the Terrell Owens saga. How much do you think Dallas wants to shut every last one of them up with a dominant win here?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

Philadelphia (-4.5) @ San Francisco (+4.5)
Philly has looked sharp at points this season, but they haven’t been able to put games away. They could have won the Dallas and Washington games, and they were a yard away in the Chicago game. This team still has a ton of talent and they are simply a better football team then the 49ers. This is a must win for them to get back on track, and to be honest, I love that I only have to give up 4.5, as I’d likely taken them all the way up to -7.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

Green Bay (+1.5) @ Seattle (-1.5)
Seattle coming off of a humiliating loss against a very tough Giants team returns home, where they play substantially better; especially with their backs against the wall. Green Bay is coming off of a home loss to Atlanta and their spirits have to be low. They are ravaged with injuries and now they have to play in a very hostile environment in Seattle. I think the Seahawks kick the Packers while they are down and pick up the win back at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle

New England (+4.5) @ San Diego (-4.5)
Much like the Dallas game, I like this game simply because of the spread. You have a New England team coming off of a nice win against San Francisco (getting everyone to believe in them again), and a San Diego team not only coming off of a loss to Miami, but that has also looked pretty terrible all season long. It is extremely hard not to like New England here, especially considering how well they always play against San Diego. 4.5 points is hard to pass on, and even the upset seems very realistic at a good price. You know what I like to do when things look far too obvious; throw it all out the window and bet the other way. Not to mention, San Diego HATES this team and should have revenge on the mind. I don’t know how they’ll do it, but I believe San Diego will find a way to win this game by a TD at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^San Diego

MONDAY

New York Giants (-7.5) @ Cleveland (+7.5)
Cleveland is just flat out bad this year. The offense is just not there, and the defense isn’t good enough to make up for that. The Giants, meanwhile, are undefeated; and it would appear that Eli Manning has arrived. The Giants are working on all cylinders and are a substantially better team then Cleveland; find it hard to believe that they will falter with the whole country watching on Monday Night Football. New York should roll here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New York Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Giants

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 30 – 24 – 0 (.556)

Week 7 Video Here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LK2A84DIkgk

Texas Tech -20.5
Northern Illinois -11.0
Arkansas +18.5
Tulsa -25.0
Idaho +34.0
Texas/Oklahoma Under 57
Kansas State/Texas A&M Over 62
Michigan State/Northwestern Under 47

Have a great weekend and good luck everybody!

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