Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”
www.davesdime.com

THE INTRO

Happy Halloween!

…I guess. Kind of loses its appeal a bit when you are on the giving end of the candy.

Then again, do I really need to be eating more?

Instead of using this spot to brag about how flat out amazing I am (10 – 3 – 1 against the spread last week), I instead wanted to thank my readers, whether this is your 4th year or your very first Dime.

I’ve had over 100 additions to the subscription list this year, and am getting very close to 300 subscribers. Considering my 1st year I was sending this out to 18 people, its just amazing to see how far its come.

So thank you. Whether you actually read it word for word or delete it as soon as it hits your box, I appreciate every one of you. Thanks!

Oh, and PS… I’m pretty damn amazing.

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 10 – 3 – 1 (.769)
Without the spread: 11 – 3 – 0 (.786)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 1 – 0 – 0 (1.000)

Season
With the spread: 63 – 50 – 3 (.558)
Without the spread: 72 – 44 – 0 (.621)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 11 – 1 – 0 (.917)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD:

Oakland (+7.0) @ Baltimore (-7.0) W
Washington (-7.5) @ Detroit (+7.5) W
Buffalo (-1.0) @ Miami (+1.0) W
San Diego (-3.0) @ New Orleans (+3.0) W
Atlanta (+9.0) @ Philadelphia (-9.0) W
Cleveland (+7.0) @ Jacksonville (-7.0) W
Cincinnati (+9.0) @ Houston (-9.0) W
New York Giants (+3.0) @ Pittsburgh (-3.0) W
Seattle (+5.5) @ San Francisco (-5.5) W
Indianapolis (+4.0) @ Tennessee (-4.0) W

THE BAD:

Kansas City (+13.5) @ New York Jets (-13.5) L

THE COULD HAVE GONE EITHER WAY/NOT MY WAY THIS WEEK:

Arizona (+4.0) @ Carolina (-4.0) T
Tampa Bay (+2.0) @ Dallas (-2.0) L
St. Louis (+7.5) @ New England (-7.5) L

THE “WHAT THE $%^@”?:

NONE

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

SUNDAY

New York Jets (+5.5) @ Buffalo (-5.5)
I’ve got to admit, this is really more of a feeling than anything. Brett Favre is getting completely destroyed by the media for yet another rocky game against Kansas City, where he threw 3 interceptions. This puts his TD to INT ratio at 3 to 7 over his last 3 games; and that is against Cincinnati (0 – 8), Oakland (2 – 5), and Kansas City (1 – 6). I’ll be the first to tell you he sucks and the game has passed him by. But this is exactly the kind of game Favre all of a sudden returns to old in and leads the Jets to a win, getting them right back into the thick of things. In actuality, Buffalo should beat up the Jets through the air and win this game easily at home. But 55.8% on the year gives me the right to trust my gut I think, and I think the Jets surprise everyone here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *New York Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *New York Jets

Detroit (+12.5) @ Chicago (-12.5)
Detroit has been surprisingly effective in keeping games close lately. They let Washington slip away and cover the spread, but they had covered easily against Houston and Minnesota. So giving a gritty team 12.5 points isn’t easy, but Chicago should hammer these guys. They have a surprisingly good offense this year, and the defense is more than enough to overpower Detroit. I’ll take my chances on yet another double digit favorite; this season has not been good to them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago

Jacksonville (-7.5) @ Cincinnati (+7.5)
Awfully tough to take Jacksonville -7.5 when they seem to play every game within a field goal, but coming off of a loss to Cleveland, this is a must win for them in a wide open AFC wild card race. Against a Palmer-less Bengals team, they really need to man up here and pick up a strong win. My guess is they do.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Jacksonville

Baltimore (+1.5) @ Cleveland (-1.5)
This should be a great game, especially if you are a fan of defense. I believe that Baltimore’s is a bit better though, and they should be able to run the ball a bit better than Cleveland, too. Lastly, Baltimore’s new “Suggs Package”, which features two QBs on the field at the same time, allows for all kinds of trickery. Get the feeling this might be a new Wildcat type of deal that will break a few big plays, and in a game of defense and inches, big plays will be massive.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Baltimore

Tampa Bay (-9.0) @ Kansas City (+9.0)
Kansas City had a good game against the Jets, but that was more Brett Favre collapsing than anything. Tampa Bay’s QB play is susceptible to a bad game here or there; but I think they will run the ball well enough to take the pressure off of Garcia. Kansas City will have a lot of trouble scoring, and I think Tampa Bay does indeed win this one by double digits.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay

Houston (+4.5) @ Minnesota (-4.5)
Houston’s passing attack is pretty strong, and Minnesota’s secondary is very beatable. This being Houston’s first road game in over a month worries me a bit, but I don’t think Minnesota has done enough this year to warrant giving up more than a FG. I expect this to be a close game, so I’ll take the points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Minnesota

Arizona (-3.0) @ St. Louis (+3.0)
Here’s a game that its pretty clear that Arizona is the trap. But this time, I’m going to spring it. I still think Arizona is a good football team and I think they can win this game in shootout fashion. Putting up 20+ on Carolina was no easy feat; they should be able to score on St. Louis. Bookies can’t be right EVERY time, can they?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona

Green Bay (+4.5) @ Tennessee (-4.5)
Tennessee is a perfect 7 – 0, both in the record books and against the spread. Like I said last week, until this train gets de-railed, I’m just going to keep on riding it; I don’t even need to crunch a single number. Don’t overthink this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee

Miami (+3.0) @ Denver (-3.0)
In Denver, a slumping home team hungry for a win is tough to bet against. But I’m gonna do it. Miami is still underrated and Denver is still overrated. Denver’s awful passing defense should get exploited by Miami. Denver will score too, but I think Miami prevails here, as they are in my opinion the better football team right now.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Miami

Dallas (+9.0) @ New York Giants (-9.0)
Even in the win over Tampa Bay, Dallas still looked awful. No reason at all that New York shouldn’t roll here… on paper. But NFC East rivalry games rarely go as easily as they should. Even if I was starting at quarterback for Dallas, I’d still take a stab on them if you gave me +9.0 points in a rivalry game like this. Then again, if I were QB I’d take the Giants and throw the game… but you get the idea. I’ll take Dallas to make things more difficult then they need to be.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Giants

Atlanta (-3.0) @ Oakland (+3.0)
Uh-oh, we have ourselves a philosophy pick! With McFadden still out, the Raiders explosive dynamic is gone; as is the chance to keep Fargas fresh. Statistically there is no reason to believe Atlanta will have trouble moving the ball; their 3rd ranked rushing game faces the Raider’s 26th ranked rushing defense. Atlanta’s one weakness, it’s passing defense, faces the league’s 30th ranked passing attack. Not only do you get Atlanta at the bargain price of -3, but bookies are also gift wrapping it for you, offering to bet 100 to win 105 or better. Do you see any reason at all to take the Raiders here? Me neither. Yet somehow I’m hitting 92% on these plays.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Oakland

Philadelphia (-6.5) @ Seattle (+6.5)
Back-to-back philosophy! Philadelphia’s 4th ranked offense (scoring per game) faces Seattle’s 25th ranked defense. McNabb and Westbrook, leading the league’s 4th best passing offense, get to face the league’s 30th ranked passing defense this week. As for Seattle on offense? They are 13th in rushing but face the league’s 9th ranked rushing defense… a defense that will have an even easier time defending against the run because there is no reason to respect the pass. Seattle’s passing offense is league worst (and that includes time when Matt Hasselbeck was in; he’s injured now), and faces the 12th ranked passing defense; more than enough to stop this measly attack. The line opened at -7. Around 84% of bettors took Philadelphia. And the line moved to -6.5. It doesn’t get any easier than this… or does it?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Seattle

New England (+6.0) @ Indianapolis (-6.0)
Here is another situation I’ve gotta go with my gut on. Honestly, Indianapolis hasn’t done anything outside of one game (smashing Baltimore) to warrant giving up 6 points to anyone, much less a team picking up confidence and winning football games like the New England Patriots. So why am I going to take them? Because they actually looked a lot better against Tennessee; that final score was not indicative of their play. Getting away from the league’s best defense and giving Peyton a little room to breathe, I think the Colts get the job done at home in a must win game for them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

MONDAY

Pittsburgh (+2.0) @ Washington (-2.0)
Willie Parker will be back, at least in a limited roll. Washington has sleepwalked through three straight games (StL, Cle, and Det). And Washington is the favorite? Seems very off to me. Only reason this isn’t a philosophy pick is that Pittsburgh is coming off of a loss which may influence some people’s decision. But even still, I’m very surprised Pittsburgh is the underdog here, and I think its a trap; I’ll take the Redskins.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Washington

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 44 – 37 – 0 (.543)

Week 10 Video Here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Buk9Bc_x2Ew

Arkansas State +23.0
Missouri -20.0
Iowa State +31.0
USC -44.0
Louisville -13.5
Texas Tech +4.0
Rice -2.0

Have a great weekend and good luck everybody!
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