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By Dave Consolazio, September 26, 2008 10:00 am

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”
www.davesdime.com

THE INTRO

Well, we’ve now seen it all.

Only 3 weeks into the season.

You’ve seen me at my best (11 – 3), you’ve seen me at my worst (4 – 12), and you’ve seen me at my most absolutely ordinary (8 – 8).

So where do we go from here? I actually don’t mind being ordinary. Ordinary with a sprinkle of brilliance would be fine by me!

I think as the season goes on and stats become more available, it will be easier for me to pick winners down the stretch… but maybe I’m just being optimistic. Time will tell! But you don’t care about any of this…

YOU want to know what I think about the USC game, don’t you?

You can’t fool me! Well I just figured instead of having to answer a million questions on how angry and sad I am about this game, I’d sum it up for you in a nice little podcast. You can listen to that here: “Why It Sucks To Be A Trojan Fan” (after you are done reading the Dime of course!)

And while I’m plugging my other stuff, check out my new sports show on youtube, Spare Change!

Enough shameless self promotion for you? Me too. Lets get to some NFL winners.

THE RECORD

Last Week

With the spread: 8 – 8 – 0 (.500)
Without the spread: 10 – 6 – 0 (.625)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 0 – 0 – 0 (N/A)
**Outright Upsets**: 1 – 4 – 0 (.200)

Season

With the spread: 23 – 23 – 0 (.500)
Without the spread: 27 – 20 – 0 (.574)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 3 – 1 – 0 (.750)
**Outright Upsets**: 4 – 11 – 0 (.267)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD:

Kansas City (+5.5) @ Atlanta (-5.5) W
Tampa Bay (+3.0) @ Chicago (-3.0) W
Houston (+4.5) @ Tennessee (-4.5) W
Miami (+12.5) @ New England (-12.5) W
St. Louis (+9.0) @ Seattle (-9.0) W
New Orleans (+5.5) @ Denver (-5.5) W
Jacksonville (+5.0) @ Indianapolis (-5.0) W
Dallas (-3.0) @ Green Bay (+3.0) W

THE BAD:

Detroit (+4.5) @ San Francisco (-4.5) L
New York Jets (+9.0) @ San Diego (-9.0) L

THE COULD HAVE GONE EITHER WAY/NOT MY WAY THIS WEEK:

Arizona (+3.0) @ Washington (-3.0) L
Carolina (+3.5) @ Minnesota (-3.5) L
Pittsburgh (+3.5) @ Philadelphia (-3.5) L

THE “WHAT THE $%^@”?:

Cleveland (+2.5) @ Baltimore (-2.5) L
How did Cleveland get so bad so fast? Was last year’s success a total fluke?

Oakland (+9.5) @ Buffalo (-9.5) L
Oakland rolls into Buffalo and outplays them for 3 quarters? I knew this team was going to confuse people and give me trouble, but I’m 0 – 3 out of the gate with them and I’m pretty damn mad; at least hang on for the win if you are going to botch my pick guys!

Cincinnati (+13.0) @ New York Giants (-13.0) L
I guess Cinci had to wake up sooner or later, but who knew it would be in New York?

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

SUNDAY

Atlanta (+6.5) @ Carolina (-6.5)
Never would have guessed that Atlanta’s quest to regain respectability would have been going so well so early, they really have taken strides and look much better then the hapless team they were last year. That being said, I think this is a tough spot for them; hitting the road isn’t easy for a rookie QB, and after Carolina squandered an early 10 – 0 lead @ Minnesota, I think they are going to be extra-focused from start to finish in this one on both sides of the ball.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina

Arizona (+1.0) @ New York Jets (-1.0)
Absolutely no reason at all the Jets should be favored here. None. This spread tells me that there is still a lot of respect for Brett Favre, and people expect New York at home to finally turn the corner and step up for a big win. I just don’t see it. Arizona has a solid secondary that won’t let Favre get away with his antics. They also have an offense that shouldn’t have trouble moving the ball if the Jets defense in the San Diego game is any indication. I like the Cards here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Arizona

Cleveland (+3.5) @ Cincinnati (-3.5)
I’m 100% sure whichever team I pick here is going to lose. It’s just one of those games. I’m going to take Cleveland though; I simply can not believe their offense is as anemic as it has looked so far this season. Maybe the Dallas, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore defenses have just made it look this bad? Then again, what’s to say Cincy won’t pound this team like everyone else has? It is too hard to say. But in a game I’d consider a total coin flip, I have to TAKE the points instead of give them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Cleveland

Minnesota (+3.0) @ Tennessee (-3.0)
Very interesting game here that could be trouble, but I’m not picking against Tennessee until they show some signs of weakness. Minnesota will NOT get away with throwing the ball deep on Tennessee like they did against Carolina, and if anyone can stop Minnesota’s deadly rushing game, it is this stingy D. Giving up only a FG at home, they are the pick here I think.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee

Green Bay (+1.0) @ Tampa Bay (-1.0)
I respect Tampa Bay as much as anyone… but this is a little too much respect. GB loses a game to the best team in football and all of a sudden everyone has fallen out of love with them? Losing Harris was a HUGE blow to this team, don’t get me wrong, but I don’t think Brian Greise is the guy that is going to exploit this. I think Green Bay finds a way to win this game.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Green Bay

San Francisco (+5.0) @ New Orleans (-5.0)
San Francisco has looked pretty damn good in this young season, but I’m still not a believer. They got a ton of favorable bounces in the Seattle game, and Detroit looks pretty useless (again) this year. New Orleans is dealing with the injury bug big time, but I think they have enough firepower to win this game at home by a TD or more.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

Houston (+7.0) @ Jacksonville (-7.0)
I wanted to take Houston here, but I just can’t. Houston got beat up on the road against Pittsburgh, then they headed to Tennessee and got beat up on both sides of the ball again. Now they travel AGAIN to a tough team coming fresh off an impressive upset in Indy. This Houston team has to be reeling right now, and I think Jacksonville gets back to .500 in convincing fashion.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Jacksonville

Denver (-9.5) @ Kansas City (+9.5)
This is one of those games. Denver has looked unstoppable on offense – their passing game hasn’t clicked like this in years. Kansas City meanwhile has looked totally useless this season on both sides of the ball and no one in their right mind would pick them. So what am I going to do? Pick them. Denver goes in overconfident, Kansas City comes in frustrated and playing for their pride in front of an angry Arrowhead crowd. No idea how, but Kansas City finds a way to keep this close.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver

Buffalo (-9.0) @ St. Louis (+9.0)
I really, really want to pick St. Louis for the exact same reasons as I picked KC, but I just can’t. I visualize final scores in my head and they never, ever come up close. Buffalo is just too good on defense to let this team score on them, and St. Louis has been too miserable on defense to stop anybody. This team is in REALLY bad shape. Yes, I know KC is too, but that is a division rivalry. St. Louis is just in REALLY bad shape.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Buffalo

Buffalo (-9.0) @ St. Louis (+9.0)
I really, really want to pick St. Louis for the exact same reasons as I picked KC, but I just can’t. I visualize final scores in my head and they never, ever come up close. Buffalo is just too good on defense to let this team score on them, and St. Louis has been too miserable on defense to stop anybody. This team is in REALLY bad shape. Yes, I know KC is too, but that is a division rivalry. St. Louis is just in REALLY bad shape.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Buffalo

Washington (+11.0) @ Dallas (-11.0)
I’m just stocking up on big point underdogs this week! Okay, is Dallas the best team in the NFL? Probably. Are they very capable of winning this game by 4 or 5 touchdowns? Absolutely. But Washington has already done a pretty respectable job keeping New York, Arizona, and New Orleans in close games; and this is a division rivalry game. As much as I respect Dallas, I don’t think Washington rolls over here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

Philadelphia (-3.0) @ Chicago (+3.0)
This is very interesting. Almost feels like a trap. Chicago has kept things close against Carolina and Tampa Bay; two games they probably should have won, actually. Chicago was -3.0 in both of those games. Now, against a healthy McNabb, they are only +3.0 here. Am I underrating Chicago too much, or are the books/public overrating them too much? This week will clear that up a little; but I for one think Philly wins by a TD or more.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

MONDAY

Baltimore (+5.0) @ Pittsburgh (-5.0)
This one is really tough because Baltimore has looked so good and Pittsburgh has looked very ordinary for two straight weeks. That said, this will be Baltimore’s first road game, and I’m also expecting Pittsburgh’s offense to explode one of these days. Not an easy task against Baltimore’s defense, but an overdue Pittsburgh offense + a rookie QB in his first road game against a division rival on Monday Night, its enough for me.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 19 – 17 – 0 (.528)

Week 4 Video Here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8dAsDRoPPXY

Ball State -17.5
Ohio State -17.5
Temple +4.0
Arkansas State -1.0
Texas -27.5
Wisconsin -6.0
Rice -17.0
Georgia -7.0
Illinois +15.0
Washington -3.5

Have a great weekend and good luck everybody!

————————————————————
Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!

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By Dave Consolazio, September 19, 2008 10:00 am

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”
www.davesdime.com

THE INTRO

Last weekend was kind of like getting out of debt.

You owe $2000. You go to Vegas and hit a jackpot on a slot machine for $2000.

You pay off your debt, and now you are back to even.

Are you happy you are out of debt? Sure you are. But you can’t help but wish you HADN’T BEEN IN DEBT IN THE FIRST PLACE, so you had that $2000 for yourself!

I’ve seriously never seen anything like this. Yes, my picks can be streaky, but Week 2 I was 2 – 5 in college and 4 – 12 in pro; a combined 6 – 17. 26% winners. Week 3 I go 6 – 3 college, 11 – 3 – 1 pro; 17 – 6 – 1. 74% winners.

Very interesting way to arrive at 23 – 23 – 1 in two weeks. As I look at this week’s schedule, I can’t help but wonder which side of me is going to show up; my oracle side, or my blindfolded-swinging-a-bat-at-random side.

I just hope I’ll be shining my crystal ball this weekend instead of shattering it with an errant swing.

Let’s get started.

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 11 – 3 – 1 (.786)
Without the spread: 11 – 4 – 0 (.733)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 2 – 0 – 0 (1.000)
**Outright Upsets**: 2 – 1 – 0 (.667)

Season
With the spread: 15 – 15 – 0 (.500)
Without the spread: 17 – 14 – 0 (.548)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 3 – 1 – 0 (.750)
**Outright Upsets**: 3 – 7 – 0 (.300)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD:

Buffalo (+5.5) @ Jacksonville (-5.5) W
Tennessee (+1.0) @ Cincinnati (-1.0) W
New Orleans @ Washington (PK) W
Green Bay (-3.0) @ Detroit (+3.0) W
New York Giants (-8.0) @ St. Louis (+8.0) W
Indianapolis (-1.0) @ Minnesota (+1.0) W
Miami (+6.0) @ Arizona (-6.0) W
New England (+1.5) @ New York Jets (-1.5) W
San Diego @ Denver (PK) W
Pittsburgh (-6.0) @ Cleveland (+6.0) W
Philadelphia (+7.0) @ Dallas (-7.0) W

THE BAD:

Atlanta (+7.0) @ Tampa Bay (-7.0) L

THE COULD HAVE GONE EITHER WAY/NOT MY WAY THIS WEEK:

San Francisco (+7.0) @ Seattle (-7.0) L

THE “WHAT THE $%^@”?:

Oakland (+3.5) @ Kansas City (-3.5) L
Week 1 they look like they could be beat by a college team… Week 2 they dominate on both sides of the ball? I’m not complaining, but wow, talk about confusing.

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

Wow, every game but one is a home favorite!

SUNDAY

Arizona (+3.0) @ Washington (-3.0)
Arizona is feeling it right now, but more importantly, their secondary (and defense overall) is pretty quietly putting together a nice season. They are really not a bad unit, and Warner is looking like he did a decade ago. I think Arizona will have the same success New Orleans had on offense in this game, but do just a little more on defense to pick up the upset in this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Arizona

Kansas City (+5.5) @ Atlanta (-5.5)
After watching the entire Kansas City / Oakland game, I can tell you that Oakland was the significantly better team on both sides of the ball. What does that tell you? With third stringer Thigpen getting the start here, Kansas City should struggle a bit on offense. Not only should Turner be able to run all over this defense, but Matt Ryan actually looks pretty good, and I thought it was a respectable effort against a tough Tampa Bay last week. I really feel Atlanta wins this game very easily.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

Oakland (+9.5) @ Buffalo (-9.5)
I loved the Raiders’ effort last week. I still feel that Week 1 was the anomaly, and this Raiders team will actually be decent this year. That said, Buffalo is a step above. Very impressive wins against Seattle and Jacksonville have shown how strong Buffalo is on defense and on offense. Trent Edwards looks good. Losing Fargas also hurts the Raiders; yes McFadden and Bush are more then capable, but this is a very tough road game for two rookies to shoulder the burden. Raiders WRs haven’t helped Russell out at all, either. If Oakland plays mistake free football they have the talent to keep this one close, but I think asking a team with so much youth to play mistake-free on the road against this team might be asking a bit too much.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Buffalo

Tampa Bay (+3.0) @ Chicago (-3.0)
This game could definitely go either way. It is really going to come down to who makes less mistakes and who makes smarter decisions (I know, really dynamite analysis, doesn’t every game come down to this?) I’m going to take my chances on Tampa Bay to be that team this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Tampa Bay

Carolina (+3.5) @ Minnesota (-3.5)
Interesting spread here. Carolina has looked pretty darn good, and while they haven’t won big, they have won both of their games season. This week they get Steve Smith back, which is HUGE, as it will open everyone else up even more. Minnesota meanwhile is benching Jackson in favor of Frerotte, and Peterson had limited practice with a hamstring injury. Minnesota will definitely play hard to avoid 0 – 3, but I still can’t find any real reason to believe they win this game.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Carolina

Houston (+4.5) @ Tennessee (-4.5)
I love this… apparently people still don’t realize how good this Tennessee team is. Chris Johnson adds an explosive dynamic from the backfield, Lendale White provides the power running game, and the defense is flat out excellent. Its about time people start realizing Tennessee has been winning because of their stingy defense over the last few years, not because of Vince Young (and that isn’t a shot on VY; it simply means that him being out does NOT make this an easy team to beat). Houston will have a decent year this year, but not this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee

Cincinnati (+13.0) @ New York Giants (-13.0)
Things keep getting tougher for Cincy. Hard to get an offense going when the first three defenses you face are Baltimore, Tennessee, and New York. 13 points looks like an awful lot, but when you consider how poor this Bengals defense is and how strong the Giants have looked on offense, I just have to believe the Giants keep rolling with a blowout win here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New York Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Giants

Miami (+12.5) @ New England (-12.5)
Last week New England was one of my absolute favorite picks, and they showed you why. But that win has apparently re-kindled the nation’s betting love for this team, because here we are with a huge spread very early in the year again. The one thing the Jets and Cardinals had that the Patriots do not this week was a veteran QB with a cannon arm. I just don’t think this New England team is built to be a blowout team. I think they give Cassel the green light this week and he makes a few mistakes, and Miami keeps this close.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

St. Louis (+9.0) @ Seattle (-9.0)
Seattle had the game in their grasp last week and gave it away. This was a team that had high hopes for this season, and now all of a sudden they find themselves facing 0 – 3 with a loss here. St. Louis has to wake up eventually, but I really feel like Seattle will be a team possessed this week and get the job done in a big way.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle

Detroit (+4.5) @ San Francisco (-4.5)
While San Francisco did have a big win last week and Detroit got blown out once again, I really feel like this is a game that Detroit has a shot in. They’ve looked okay offensively; their defense is definitely spotty, but I get the feeling they will step up this week and cover the spread. I believe San Francisco will find a way to win, but it will be by a FG or so.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco

New Orleans (+5.5) @ Denver (-5.5)
Denver has looked excellent on offense this year, and despite the fact that they should have lost the San Diego game (non-call on a clear fumble), they still moved the ball virtually at will for most of the game. But their defense wasn’t exactly thrilling, and I really don’t know that they are a touchdown better then New Orleans. I’ll give them the win, but I expect a shootout in which New Orleans stays very close, and maybe even comes out on top.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver

Jacksonville (+5.0) @ Indianapolis (-5.0)
So bizarre how many of these games I am taking the home team to win and the road team with the points, but this is another one. Jacksonville came into this year a favorite to make the playoffs and they now face 0 – 3, which would be a death sentence with Indy at 2 – 1 and Tennessee at 2 – 1 or 3 – 0 in their division. Injuries have really hampered this team, but I still think they will not go down without kicking, screaming, and clawing. If they have any success on the ground, which hasn’t been hard to do against Indy this year, they will bring this one to the wire.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

Cleveland (+2.5) @ Baltimore (-2.5)
Baltimore had a very nice win against Cincinnati, but I still don’t know that they are that great of a football team. Cleveland has been held to only one TD this year, and they are too good to be contained for a 3rd straight game, even against a tough Baltimore defense. I think Cleveland forces Flacco to make a few mistakes, and they find a way to avoid 0 – 3 and win this game.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Cleveland

Pittsburgh (+3.5) @ Philadelphia (-3.5)
Philadelphia re-established themselves as a power in the NFC Monday night, and no one is questioning what a healthy Donavan McNabb can do on offense. That being said, Ben Roethlisberger should be able to put up some points on this defense if the Dallas game was any indication. They also have a strong defense. Pittsburgh is getting the short end on the spread here after a close game against Cleveland, but I’m not taking anything away from them. I actually think they find a way to win this game outright.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Pittsburgh

Dallas (-3.0) @ Green Bay (+3.0)
The only road favorite this week, and I love it. Green Bay has looked excellent this year, but very rarely are you going to get the publicly loved Cowboys, arguably the best team in the NFC, at only -3.0. I have to jump at this opportunity, especially until anyone shows any ability at all to stop them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

MONDAY

New York Jets (+9.0) @ San Diego (-9.0)
Initially I was thinking San Diego comes out ultra motivated and dominates this game… but then I looked a bit closer. This is Monday Night Football. This is Brett Favre. After Green Bay’s dominant performance opening week on MNF and all the talk that “GB doesn’t need Favre anymore with Rodgers playing like this”, you think a guy like Favre didn’t circle this game on his calendar? Furthermore, Ladanian Tomlinson is out AND what has SD done this year to give you confidence in their defense? I don’t see them falling to 0 – 3 here, but there are just too many reasons to believe the Jets keep it close to give up a huge number like 9 points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *New York Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 14 – 12 – 0 (.538)

Week 4 Video Here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t-j0eEORIkk

Florida Atlantic +7.0
Tulane -6.0
Southern Miss -9.0
Michigan State -8.5
South Florida -28.0
Tulsa -10.5
@Stanford -9.0
Boise State/Oregon UNDER 55
Miami (Ohio)/Cincinnati UNDER 47.5

Have a great weekend and good luck everybody!

—————————————
Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!

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By Dave Consolazio, September 12, 2008 10:00 am

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”
www.davesdime.com

THE INTRO

Clutch.

Tough thing to describe, but everyone understands it. When the game is on the line, when your back is against the wall, when all the cards are on the table, when (insert your favorite cliche here), some people just step up and make it happen in these situations.

So with all of my loyal readers reading, as well as about 50+ new ones that have signed up, how clutch would a nice 11 – 5 record have been to kick off the season?

Naaah. This is me we are talking about. Instead of starting strong, why not bury myself in an 8 games under .500 hole right out of the gate?

I guess there are pros and cons to sucking this bad in week 1.

Cons:
1) I look like I suck at picking pro football… sometimes true.
2) I look like I suck at life (which includes pro football)… this one I actually don’t disagree with.
3) I have to work my way out of a massive hole after just one week… always fun.

Pros:
1) I get pity/am like an underdog story.
2) I’m kind of like the failure brother of the straight A student that gets nothing but F’s and D’s. Now when I get a C+, mom and dad are so proud of me that they buy me ice cream, while straight A student wonders why he never gets ice cream for less then an A…

But I digress.

I’ll go over where I went wrong on the recap section, but moving on, lets try and earn that C+ and ice cream this week!

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 4 – 12 – 0 (.250)
Without the spread: 6 – 10 – 0 (.375)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 1 – 1 – 0 (.500)
**Outright Upsets**: 1 – 6 – 0 (.143)

Season
With the spread: 4 – 12 – 0 (.250)
Without the spread: 6 – 10 – 0 (.375)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 1 – 1 – 0 (.500)
**Outright Upsets**: 1 – 6 – 0 (.143)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD:

Washington (+4.0) @ New York Giants (-4.0) W
Houston (+6.5) @ Pittsburgh (-6.5) W
Jacksonville (-3.0) @ Tennessee (+3.0) W
Dallas (-5.5) @ Cleveland (+5.5) W

THE BAD:

St. Louis (+7.5) @ Philadelphia (-7.5) L
Seattle (+1.0) @ Buffalo (-1.0) L
Denver (-3.0) @ Oakland (+3.0) L

THE COULD HAVE GONE EITHER WAY/NOT MY WAY THIS WEEK:

Tampa Bay (+3.0) @ New Orleans (-3.0) L
N.Y. Jets (-3.0) @ Miami (+3.0) L
Minnesota (+2.5) @ Green Bay (-2.5) L

THE “WHAT THE $%^@”?:

Detroit (-3.0) @ Atlanta (+3.0) L
Cincinnati (-1.5) @ Baltimore (+1.5) L
Chicago (+9.5) @ Indianapolis (-9.5) L

I wouldn’t expect to win all 3 of these. I could even LIVE with 1 – 2. I know there is a lot more to the game then just QB, but you really mean to tell me that in Week 1 I’m supposed to pick Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, and Kyle Orton against Carson Palmer, Jon Kitna, and Peyton Manning??

Then of course in the one game I DO take the inexperienced starter…
Arizona (-2.5) @ San Francisco (+2.5) L

Brady’s injury made this pick irrelevant in a hurry…
Kansas City (+16.5) @ New England (-16.5) L

And minus their most explosive offensive player, the Panthers travel into San Diego and win?
Carolina (+9.0) @ San Diego (-9.0) L

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

Don’t have too many upsets this week… can some favorites hold up please?

SUNDAY

Buffalo (+5.5) @ Jacksonville (-5.5)
Jacksonville at home, looking to make sure they don’t fall to 0 – 2… very dangerous to pick against. Still, I look at two defense first hard nosed teams like this facing off and its always hard to see these types of games decided by much more then a FG. Jacksonville may cover here, but I’ll give Buffalo some respect and say they keep it close here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Jacksonville

Chicago (+3.0) @ Carolina (-3.0)
Tough tough game with both teams coming off of big upsets here. Have to side with Carolina here though; they did a great job containing the run against San Diego and should do a better job containing Forte then Indy did (can’t do much worse). This forces Chicago to get out of their comfort zone and start throwing the ball; hilarity ensues.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina

Tennessee (+1.0) @ Cincinnati (-1.0)
I guess all of this Vince Young drama in the media is making people overlook the fact that Tennessee just beat Jacksonville, and Cinci got smashed by Baltimore. Tennessee’s defense is every bit as good (if not better) then the Ravens defense that contained Cincinnati last week, and their offense (yes, even with Kerry Collins) is better, too. Looks like an easy pick to me.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Tennessee

New Orleans @ Washington (PK)
Another tough game so early in the season… I really hate to pick against New Orleans again as they looked pretty sharp last week, but losing Marques Colston will be a big hit to their offense, and they do have a slew of other injuries as well. I’m still not so sure that Washington will be able to score much, but I’ll take a shot on their secondary and their home field advantage.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Washington

Green Bay (-3.0) @ Detroit (+3.0)
Okay, I get it. Because Green Bay doesn’t really have a running back that can exploit Detroit’s sad run defense, they are only a 3 point favorite here? Hmm. Call me crazy, but I get the feeling Green Bay will find their way to the endzone just fine in this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

New York Giants (-8.0) @ St. Louis (+8.0)
I’d really love to find some rationale to take this huge home underdog, but unfortunately I saw the “highlights” from the Philadelphia game. It may not get that ugly here, but really no reason for me to believe that the Giants won’t be able to have a field day on offense and cover this spread.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New York Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Giants

Oakland (+3.5) @ Kansas City (-3.5)
This game is really killing me. I simply can not believe the Raiders are as bad as they looked last week, especially not on defense. Not to mention, Damon Huard is no Jay Cutler and the Raiders should have a better day offensively this week. I also believe, and this isn’t just the fan in me talking, that the Raiders are the better team on paper. All that said, if Eddie Royal can torch the Raiders as bad as he did, what can Dwayne Bowe and Tony Gonzalez do? And can the Raiders stop Larry Johnson? Something tells me the Raiders are the pick here, but it sure isn’t logic or reason. Until the Raiders show they can turn potential into results on the field, I can’t rationalize picking them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Kansas City

Indianapolis (-1.0) @ Minnesota (+1.0)
I don’t know where to go here. Peyton Manning VS. a vulnerable pass defense and Adrian Peterson VS. a vulnerable rush defense. Two teams motivated not to fall to 0 – 2. This game can go so many ways. And the spread indicates that. I’m tempted to flip a coin, but you know what? The tiebreaker for me here is Peyton Manning. He is far too competitive to let the team fall to 0 – 2, which would be deadly with Tennessee and Jacksonville breathing down their necks. I think?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

San Francisco (+7.0) @ Seattle (-7.0)
Can’t disagree with the spread here. As much as 7 points looks like a lot, San Francisco’s offense will have trouble against Seattle’s defense, and Seattle will welcome the SF defense after having their hands full with a tough Buffalo team last week. They should win big at home in this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle

Atlanta (+7.0) @ Tampa Bay (-7.0)
Atlanta will not be able to do anything close to what they did against Detroit’s defense this week. But will Tampa Bay really score enough to cover this spread? Last week I picked against rookie Matt Ryan and he played well, I’m sure taking him this week he’ll go through his growing pains on my watch… but I think Atlanta can keep this game respectable if they play smart.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay

Miami (+6.0) @ Arizona (-6.0)
Miami was 8 yards away from upsetting the Jets and making me look smart (yeah, like 5 – 11 is smart), but they showed some serious flaws. Not that this should surprise anyone, they still do have a long way to go. I still think I’ll turn to them a few times this year, but with as bad as the secondary looked against the Jets, do they have any chance against the dynamic wide receivers in Arizona? Probably not.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona

New England (+1.5) @ New York Jets (-1.5)
Played it pretty safe to this point, haven’t I? Here’s a curve ball for you. New England, without Tom Brady, wins in New York this week. How? Why? Blasphemy? Believe it or not, this team does have more talent then just Tom Brady… and New York showed some weakness last weak against Miami. But more importantly then all that, this is strictly a motivation thing; how do you think New England feels hearing all week about how Tom Brady’s injury means the end of their season and they are now underdogs? This is their week to prove they do not need Tom Brady. And don’t get me wrong, they DO need him… but for this week, they will not accept a loss.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *^New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *^New England

San Diego @ Denver (PK)
San Diego loses the heart and soul of their defense in Shawne Merriman, and under Norv Turner they have been slow starters. Denver has to be flying high, and despite the fact that San Diego will be significantly more challenging then the Raiders were, the Broncos also get Brandon Marshall back this week and should play with a lot of confidence at home. Moving to 2 – 0 and making the heavily favored to win the AFC West Chargers 0 – 2 would be a huge boost for this team, especially with the Chiefs and Raiders looking like early non-factors.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver

Pittsburgh (-6.0) @ Cleveland (+6.0)
If the New England pick was a curve ball, here comes a knuckle-curve gyro ball. The book of philosophy was written for games just like this. Where to begin…

- Bet AGAINST a team coming off of a huge blowout win (Pittsburgh)
- Bet FOR a team coming off of a huge blowout loss (Cleveland)
- Revenge Factor (Pittsburgh has won in their last 9 meetings)
- Bet FOR a team that is a home underdog playing at home for second week in a row
- Bet AGAINST strange looking threads (shouldn’t Cleveland be more than +6, considering Pittsburgh is 7 – 1 – 1 ATS in their last 9 meetings and they looked so dominant last week and Cleveland looked so bad?)

Is Pittsburgh the better team? Of course. But my philosophy picks are 60% winners ATS, compared to right around a coin flip without them. As such, I can’t pass up on an opportunity this big. I’ll take it one step further… and take the straight upset.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *^Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *^Cleveland

MONDAY

Philadelphia (+7.0) @ Dallas (-7.0)
This game can go so many ways. Both teams have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball… this could be a defensive battle OR a shootout. Either way, when it comes to NFC East rivalry games, I don’t give up a touchdown’s worth of points very often.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

Baltimore (+4.5) @ Houston (-4.5)
Ok, congrats Joe Flacco, you got me last week against Cincinnati. Have fun in your first road game against Mario Williams and the Texans on Monday Night. Houston may not be the toughest team around, but I still don’t believe the Ravens are legit just because they beat a bad Bengals team at home. This game will be a good test for them, but I see Houston winning it by a TD or more.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 8 – 9 – 0 (.470)

Week 3 Video Here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rvl4AR0FwkQ

Iowa State +13.5
Clemson -18.5
Brigham Young -8.0
North Texas +42.0
Utah -24.0
Washington State/Baylor OVER 44.0
Nevada/Missouri UNDER 69.5
Oregon/Purdue OVER 60.0
Oklahoma/Washington OVER 62.0

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Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
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By Dave Consolazio, September 4, 2008 10:00 am

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”
www.davesdime.com

THE INTRO

((I spend a lot of time typing this up every week, mainly for the enjoyment of my readers. If you are receiving this email, it is because I feel like you will have a good time reading it and/or you asked me to send it to you. This is not meant to be spam mail. You will only receive one email from me a week. If you want to be taken off the list, let me know, and I’ll remove you immediately… but its much better for my pride if you just delete it every week and let me think that you kinda care. Thanks!))

There are three sure things in life;

Death.
Taxes.
and DAVE’S DIME at football season!

…Unless, of course, I die. Or if I don’t pay my taxes and they shut of my Internet and electricity.

Hmm.. maybe that’s why those two go first?

In any case, I am alive and well, and once again I am excited to be a part of your football ritual for the upcoming season. Whether you glance, skim, delete, or in some rare cases READ the Dime, I appreciate your interest and your support as I try not to embarrass myself too badly trying to pick winners.

With my unparalleled wit (yes, I’m seriously off balance), exceptional handicapping (1 to 2% better then flipping a coin to pick winners!), superb writing talents (If by superb you mean haven’t improved since the 9th grade), and the voice inside my head (that’s me!), I hope to provide you with picks against the spread in the NFL that are fun to read and, if I’m lucky, occasionally on target.

But remember above all else that this is FREE. You get what you pay for. It’s like when you go on a job fair and the booths give you free things like pens and yo-yos. Do they run out of ink and get knotted up faster then the high quality ones do? Most definitely. But you can’t complain, because its free!

So without further ado, lets kick of my broken yo-yo pro football column!

THE RECORD

2007 Season
With the spread: 124 – 123 – 9 (.502)
Without the spread: 157 – 99 – 0 (.613)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 14 – 7 – 2 (.667)
**Outright Upsets**: 20 – 42 – 0 (.323)

2006 Season
With the spread: 126 – 121 – 9 (.510)
Without the spread: 154 – 102 – 0 (.602)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 24 – 22 – 2 (.522)
**Outright Upsets**: 36 – 33 – 0 (.522)

2005 Season
With the spread: 138 – 111 – 7 (.554)
Without the spread: 167 – 89 – 0 (.652)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 27 – 13 – 1 (.675)

This is the section where I list my total record as the season progresses.

With the spread: 0 – 0 – 0 (.000)
Without the spread: 0 – 0 – 0 (.000)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 0 – 0 – 0 (.000)
**Outright Upsets**: 0 – 0 – 0 (.000)

With the Spread – I will explain in detail what the spread means for those of you who do not know in THE PICKS section.

Without the Spread – Who I pick to win the game, outright.

^^Philosophical Picks^^ – If it were as easy as just crunching the numbers, everyone could do it. These are human beings with motivational factors on and off the field. If I make a pick that looks past the stats at the human element of the game, a (^) will signify that.

**Outright Upsets** – When I take the underdog to not only cover the spread but to actually win the game, too. These picks will have a (*) next to them. Did horribly with these last year, but am hoping to turn that around this year.

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

Here I will just remind you who I took last week and whether or not I was right or wrong

THE PICKS

And where would we be without actually picking some winners?

*Here is the layout of my picks, and an explanation of how the spread works. Veteran readers can skip ahead to THE REAL THING!, but first timers or forgetful people should read on. Don’t worry if you’re confused at first, it will make sense as time goes on. Still, I’ll do my best to explain.*

TEAM ONE (+6.5) @ TEAM TWO (-6.5)
The team on the left side is always on the road, and the team on the right side is always at home. I will use this area to provide commentary as to why I’m picking who I’m picking. The number in parenthesis is called “The Spread”. This is how Las Vegas makes money. If you could bet on any two teams on an even playing field, you could always take the favorite, and you would win quite often. With the spread, things are evened out a bit. If you take the weaker team (in this case team one), you are going to be given X amount of points (in this case 6.5). So, lets say the final score to the game is “Team One” 7, “Team Two” 10. Team Two won the game, but not in Vegas terms. Add the 6.5 Vegas gave to Team One, and the score was “Team One” 13.5, “Team Two” 10. So, if you put money on Team Two, even though they won, they didn’t win by enough to “cover the spread” (which means outscore Team One with the extra points), so you lost money. So when you take the underdog (the team with the extra points), you add those points to their final total. If you take the favorite, you have to subtract number X from your total (So in the 10 – 7 game, minus 6.5, Team Two loses 3.5 – 7). The reason numbers usually have .5’s on them is so there can not be a tie. If you’re still confused, don’t worry, it’ll clear up. If you got it, well done!
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: TEAM TWO (-6.5)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: TEAM TWO (-6.5)

THE REAL THING!

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

Last year was by far my worst year to date and I was lucky to end up over .500… lets try and get this season started off strong here!

THURSDAY

Washington (+4.0) @ New York Giants (-4.0)
This is the first of many tough games on the schedule this week. Washington did an excellent job drafting this year, and could definitely surprise some people this season. New York, meanwhile, lost two of its best defensive lineman in Michael Strahan (retired) and Osi Umenyiora (injured)… and putting pressure on the quarterback was this team’s bread and butter. All that said, with the Giants home opener and the rising of the Super Bowl banner, the fans will be rocking the building and New York should have enough on offense to win this game by a touchdown. I certainly can’t pick against them this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New York Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Giants

SUNDAY

Seattle (+1.0) @ Buffalo (-1.0)
This game just looks ugly. Lots of injuries and question marks, especially on offense for these teams. The spread is right on; this game looks like a coinflip. It’ll come down to who gets the bounces or makes the big play. Generally as a rule I take the home team in games like this, but I like Seattle a bit better on paper, so I’ll take them and hope for that bounce to go their way.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Seattle

Detroit (-3.0) @ Atlanta (+3.0)
There is no question that Atlanta will be better then they were last year; they can’t really get any worse. That said, there is no excuse for this line only being at 3 points. Kitna and the Lions will put up points, and even with a suspect defense, Matt Ryan will make mistakes as all rookie QBs do in their first season. Don’t see Atlanta winning in this spot.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Detroit

Cincinnati (-1.5) @ Baltimore (+1.5)
I really hate taking the Bengals after the way they played last year, but with McGahee not at 100% and QB issues like crazy, it is too hard to believe that Baltimore will miraculously start putting points on the board. Even Cinci’s defense should be able to keep the game within reason for the offense to take it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati

St. Louis (+7.5) @ Philadelphia (-7.5)
With the wide receiving core in shambles in Philly, I don’t see this game being a shootout. I also don’t see St. Louis getting completely shut down on offense. Philly is the better team and should come out on top here, but I think it’ll be within a touchdown.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

Houston (+6.5) @ Pittsburgh (-6.5)
Houston took some strides last year towards becoming a solid team in the AFC, and I believe they can grow on that this year and will probably be competitive in a lot of games this year. Pittsburgh, however, has the makings of being a serious contender in the AFC; with question marks about Brady and Manning’s health, it isn’t out of the realm of possibility that Pittsburgh could get their names thrown in the hat as a legitimate Super Bowl contender. I believe they get that ball rolling this week with a convincing win at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

Jacksonville (-3.0) @ Tennessee (+3.0)
First of all, I want to wish Richard Collier, the Jacksonville offensive tackle who was shot this week and suffered some life threatening injuries, my very best. I hope he is able to recover in full. It is hard to handicap a game when a tragedy like this that is so much more important then the game of football is a dark shadow over the game. Despite the fact that Jacksonville may be the better team, the emotional distraction of this loss as well as the fact that they are playing against division rival Tennessee who ALWAYS plays tough and it is in Tennessee, Jacksonville might just have too much working against them this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *^Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *^Tennessee

Tampa Bay (+3.0) @ New Orleans (-3.0)
No one is questioning New Orleans talent on offense, or how great of a team they make in fantasy football. In real football though, you need to play defense. I’ve read that New Orleans may be better and faster on defense this year, but I’ll believe it when I see it. I know I’ll get a good defensive performance from Tampa Bay, and I can also count on a smart offense run by Jeff Garcia. That may be just about all I need in this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Tampa Bay

Kansas City (+16.5) @ New England (-16.5)
Do I like giving up 16.5 points fresh out of the gate? Absolutely not. But with New England on a mission to prove that last year was not a fluke, and a returning cast on offense that obliterated everyone (except the Giants when it mattered) last season, and a rebuilding Kansas City team… I’m just not crazy enough to pick against New England until I see some vulnerability with my own eyes.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

N.Y. Jets (-3.0) @ Miami (+3.0)
This game is tough simply because I really believe that both of these teams will show big improvement over last season. Chad Pennington is perfect to run this offense which should run the ball well with Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown, and should open lanes up for them with a solid west coast offense. All eyes will be on Brett Favre in this game, but he hasn’t looked comfortable in this offensive scheme in the preseason. Am I asking way too much from a team that went 1 – 15 last season to turn things around so quickly? Probably… but I just have a feeling.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Miami

Arizona (-2.5) @ San Francisco (+2.5)
Arizona has too many distractions (Leinart losing his job to Warner, Boldin demanding a trade and not on talking terms with the coach) to be 100% focused on this game. San Francisco made the right choice in benching Alex Smith for JT O’Sullivan, and I think the team will rally behind this decision and grab a win in the season opener.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *^San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *^San Francisco

Carolina (+9.0) @ San Diego (-9.0)
With Steve Smith suspended and out this week, Carolina is without its most explosive offensive weapon; and they would need him to have any chance to keep up with the Chargers. Question marks and concerns are still swirling around Shawne Merriman playing with bad knees, but with or without him, San Diego would still win this game by double digits.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

Dallas (-5.5) @ Cleveland (+5.5)
Cleveland has plenty of talent, but I believe that Dallas will once again be the class of the NFC this year, and they will just be too talented on both sides of the ball for Cleveland to handle right now. Quinn will make some mistakes under pressure, and Dallas will capitalize.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

Chicago (+9.5) @ Indianapolis (-9.5)
So much emphasis will be placed on Peyton Manning’s knee – which appears to be fine – in this game that I think some people will overlook the fact that the game is going to be decided on the other side of the ball. The Colts have a great defense and the Bears’ offense looks on paper to be embarrassing; expect plenty of turnovers and plenty of short fields for the Indy offense.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

MONDAY

Minnesota (+2.5) @ Green Bay (-2.5)
While Minnesota definitely has question marks at QB, they have an outstanding recipe for success; an elite running back and a strong defense. The Adrian Peterson / Chester Taylor connection should be able to move the chains against even the best of defenses; and the amount of pressure on Green Bay QB Aaron Rogers is so intense that I can not imagine he has a flawless game. Vikings upset Green Bay at Lambeau, and let the boo birds and We-Want-Favre drama begin.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Minnesota

Denver (-3.0) @ Oakland (+3.0)
The Raiders are going to be one of the toughest teams in the league to handicap this year, and not only because I’m a fan. They have the talent and potential on both sides of the ball to be as good as 8 – 8, but they also have the question marks and inexperience that could lead to another 2 to 4 win season. I do know one thing; players and fans alike haven’t been this excited about a home opener in years. Cutler is prone to making mistakes, and if the Raiders can stop the run AT ALL, their secondary should be able to eat Cutler alive. In a game that could very well set the tone for the entire season, Oakland finds a way to pull it off Monday night.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Oakland

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 6 – 4 – 0 (.600)

In this section I list my top plays of the week in college football. Since I explain each of these picks in depth in my youtube videos, I’ll just list the picks here instead of typing up the commentary and repeating myself (as if once isn’t bad enough, right?)

Week 1 Video Here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fmSPJvHJesU

Southern Methodist/Rice OVER 74.5 (Win)
Florida -34.0 (Win)
USC -19.5 (Win)
Utah +3.5 (Win – ML too!)
Auburn -26.0 (Win)
Clemson -5.0 (Loss)
Arizona -27.0 (Win)
Kansas -36.5 (Loss – by 1 yard)
Colorado State +11.0 (Loss)
Tennessee -7.0 (Loss)

Week 2 Video Here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SRsLn3Oy–Q

South Carolina -10.0
Michigan -14.5
BYU -9.5
Florida Atlantic -13.5
Oklahoma State/Houston OVER 57
South Florida -12.5
South Florida/Central Florida UNDER 53

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Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!