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By Dave Consolazio, October 31, 2008 10:00 am

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”
www.davesdime.com

THE INTRO

Happy Halloween!

…I guess. Kind of loses its appeal a bit when you are on the giving end of the candy.

Then again, do I really need to be eating more?

Instead of using this spot to brag about how flat out amazing I am (10 – 3 – 1 against the spread last week), I instead wanted to thank my readers, whether this is your 4th year or your very first Dime.

I’ve had over 100 additions to the subscription list this year, and am getting very close to 300 subscribers. Considering my 1st year I was sending this out to 18 people, its just amazing to see how far its come.

So thank you. Whether you actually read it word for word or delete it as soon as it hits your box, I appreciate every one of you. Thanks!

Oh, and PS… I’m pretty damn amazing.

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 10 – 3 – 1 (.769)
Without the spread: 11 – 3 – 0 (.786)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 1 – 0 – 0 (1.000)

Season
With the spread: 63 – 50 – 3 (.558)
Without the spread: 72 – 44 – 0 (.621)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 11 – 1 – 0 (.917)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD:

Oakland (+7.0) @ Baltimore (-7.0) W
Washington (-7.5) @ Detroit (+7.5) W
Buffalo (-1.0) @ Miami (+1.0) W
San Diego (-3.0) @ New Orleans (+3.0) W
Atlanta (+9.0) @ Philadelphia (-9.0) W
Cleveland (+7.0) @ Jacksonville (-7.0) W
Cincinnati (+9.0) @ Houston (-9.0) W
New York Giants (+3.0) @ Pittsburgh (-3.0) W
Seattle (+5.5) @ San Francisco (-5.5) W
Indianapolis (+4.0) @ Tennessee (-4.0) W

THE BAD:

Kansas City (+13.5) @ New York Jets (-13.5) L

THE COULD HAVE GONE EITHER WAY/NOT MY WAY THIS WEEK:

Arizona (+4.0) @ Carolina (-4.0) T
Tampa Bay (+2.0) @ Dallas (-2.0) L
St. Louis (+7.5) @ New England (-7.5) L

THE “WHAT THE $%^@”?:

NONE

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

SUNDAY

New York Jets (+5.5) @ Buffalo (-5.5)
I’ve got to admit, this is really more of a feeling than anything. Brett Favre is getting completely destroyed by the media for yet another rocky game against Kansas City, where he threw 3 interceptions. This puts his TD to INT ratio at 3 to 7 over his last 3 games; and that is against Cincinnati (0 – 8), Oakland (2 – 5), and Kansas City (1 – 6). I’ll be the first to tell you he sucks and the game has passed him by. But this is exactly the kind of game Favre all of a sudden returns to old in and leads the Jets to a win, getting them right back into the thick of things. In actuality, Buffalo should beat up the Jets through the air and win this game easily at home. But 55.8% on the year gives me the right to trust my gut I think, and I think the Jets surprise everyone here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *New York Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *New York Jets

Detroit (+12.5) @ Chicago (-12.5)
Detroit has been surprisingly effective in keeping games close lately. They let Washington slip away and cover the spread, but they had covered easily against Houston and Minnesota. So giving a gritty team 12.5 points isn’t easy, but Chicago should hammer these guys. They have a surprisingly good offense this year, and the defense is more than enough to overpower Detroit. I’ll take my chances on yet another double digit favorite; this season has not been good to them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago

Jacksonville (-7.5) @ Cincinnati (+7.5)
Awfully tough to take Jacksonville -7.5 when they seem to play every game within a field goal, but coming off of a loss to Cleveland, this is a must win for them in a wide open AFC wild card race. Against a Palmer-less Bengals team, they really need to man up here and pick up a strong win. My guess is they do.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Jacksonville

Baltimore (+1.5) @ Cleveland (-1.5)
This should be a great game, especially if you are a fan of defense. I believe that Baltimore’s is a bit better though, and they should be able to run the ball a bit better than Cleveland, too. Lastly, Baltimore’s new “Suggs Package”, which features two QBs on the field at the same time, allows for all kinds of trickery. Get the feeling this might be a new Wildcat type of deal that will break a few big plays, and in a game of defense and inches, big plays will be massive.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Baltimore

Tampa Bay (-9.0) @ Kansas City (+9.0)
Kansas City had a good game against the Jets, but that was more Brett Favre collapsing than anything. Tampa Bay’s QB play is susceptible to a bad game here or there; but I think they will run the ball well enough to take the pressure off of Garcia. Kansas City will have a lot of trouble scoring, and I think Tampa Bay does indeed win this one by double digits.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay

Houston (+4.5) @ Minnesota (-4.5)
Houston’s passing attack is pretty strong, and Minnesota’s secondary is very beatable. This being Houston’s first road game in over a month worries me a bit, but I don’t think Minnesota has done enough this year to warrant giving up more than a FG. I expect this to be a close game, so I’ll take the points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Minnesota

Arizona (-3.0) @ St. Louis (+3.0)
Here’s a game that its pretty clear that Arizona is the trap. But this time, I’m going to spring it. I still think Arizona is a good football team and I think they can win this game in shootout fashion. Putting up 20+ on Carolina was no easy feat; they should be able to score on St. Louis. Bookies can’t be right EVERY time, can they?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona

Green Bay (+4.5) @ Tennessee (-4.5)
Tennessee is a perfect 7 – 0, both in the record books and against the spread. Like I said last week, until this train gets de-railed, I’m just going to keep on riding it; I don’t even need to crunch a single number. Don’t overthink this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee

Miami (+3.0) @ Denver (-3.0)
In Denver, a slumping home team hungry for a win is tough to bet against. But I’m gonna do it. Miami is still underrated and Denver is still overrated. Denver’s awful passing defense should get exploited by Miami. Denver will score too, but I think Miami prevails here, as they are in my opinion the better football team right now.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Miami

Dallas (+9.0) @ New York Giants (-9.0)
Even in the win over Tampa Bay, Dallas still looked awful. No reason at all that New York shouldn’t roll here… on paper. But NFC East rivalry games rarely go as easily as they should. Even if I was starting at quarterback for Dallas, I’d still take a stab on them if you gave me +9.0 points in a rivalry game like this. Then again, if I were QB I’d take the Giants and throw the game… but you get the idea. I’ll take Dallas to make things more difficult then they need to be.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Giants

Atlanta (-3.0) @ Oakland (+3.0)
Uh-oh, we have ourselves a philosophy pick! With McFadden still out, the Raiders explosive dynamic is gone; as is the chance to keep Fargas fresh. Statistically there is no reason to believe Atlanta will have trouble moving the ball; their 3rd ranked rushing game faces the Raider’s 26th ranked rushing defense. Atlanta’s one weakness, it’s passing defense, faces the league’s 30th ranked passing attack. Not only do you get Atlanta at the bargain price of -3, but bookies are also gift wrapping it for you, offering to bet 100 to win 105 or better. Do you see any reason at all to take the Raiders here? Me neither. Yet somehow I’m hitting 92% on these plays.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Oakland

Philadelphia (-6.5) @ Seattle (+6.5)
Back-to-back philosophy! Philadelphia’s 4th ranked offense (scoring per game) faces Seattle’s 25th ranked defense. McNabb and Westbrook, leading the league’s 4th best passing offense, get to face the league’s 30th ranked passing defense this week. As for Seattle on offense? They are 13th in rushing but face the league’s 9th ranked rushing defense… a defense that will have an even easier time defending against the run because there is no reason to respect the pass. Seattle’s passing offense is league worst (and that includes time when Matt Hasselbeck was in; he’s injured now), and faces the 12th ranked passing defense; more than enough to stop this measly attack. The line opened at -7. Around 84% of bettors took Philadelphia. And the line moved to -6.5. It doesn’t get any easier than this… or does it?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Seattle

New England (+6.0) @ Indianapolis (-6.0)
Here is another situation I’ve gotta go with my gut on. Honestly, Indianapolis hasn’t done anything outside of one game (smashing Baltimore) to warrant giving up 6 points to anyone, much less a team picking up confidence and winning football games like the New England Patriots. So why am I going to take them? Because they actually looked a lot better against Tennessee; that final score was not indicative of their play. Getting away from the league’s best defense and giving Peyton a little room to breathe, I think the Colts get the job done at home in a must win game for them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

MONDAY

Pittsburgh (+2.0) @ Washington (-2.0)
Willie Parker will be back, at least in a limited roll. Washington has sleepwalked through three straight games (StL, Cle, and Det). And Washington is the favorite? Seems very off to me. Only reason this isn’t a philosophy pick is that Pittsburgh is coming off of a loss which may influence some people’s decision. But even still, I’m very surprised Pittsburgh is the underdog here, and I think its a trap; I’ll take the Redskins.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Washington

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 44 – 37 – 0 (.543)

Week 10 Video Here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Buk9Bc_x2Ew

Arkansas State +23.0
Missouri -20.0
Iowa State +31.0
USC -44.0
Louisville -13.5
Texas Tech +4.0
Rice -2.0

Have a great weekend and good luck everybody!
—————————————
Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!

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By Dave Consolazio, October 24, 2008 10:00 am

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”
www.davesdime.com

THE INTRO

That title is a Bon Jovi song reference, for you musically challenged.

Can you believe the regular season is almost halfway done already?

Where does the time go?

I really wish there was some way to extend the season… without football, I might have to focus on things like how screwed up the economy is.

Or how I need to get a second job so I can afford the gas money it costs to commute to my first job.

I’ll have to go back to doing what I do during the off season; capping non-sports related events. Over/Under 3.5 how many times my mother will ask me to walk the dog this week? Over/Under 17 hours I’ll spend playing video games? Over/Under $12.00 in my bank account?

(Take the under on the 3rd one, and you should make some money. Ironic, too, that you’ll be cashing in on me having $6.30 to my name)

But enough about how broke and sad I will be without football (or, at least, how much more I’ll notice it without football). We still have a whole half a season to go, so lets see if I can keep my winning percentage in the green for another half-season!

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 7 – 7 – 0 (.500)
Without the spread: 11 – 3 – 0 (.786)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 1 – 0 – 0 (1.000)

Season
With the spread: 53 – 47 – 2 (.530)
Without the spread: 61 – 41 – 0 (.598)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 10 – 1 – 0 (.909)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD:

San Diego (+1.0) @ Buffalo (-1.0) W
New Orleans (+3.0) @ Carolina (-3.0) W
Minnesota (+3.0) @ Chicago (-3.0) W
Tennessee (-9.0) @ Kansas City (+9.0) W
Baltimore (+3.0) @ Miami (-3.0) W
San Francisco (+10.5) @ New York Giants (-10.5) W
New York Jets (-3.0) @ Oakland (+3.0) W

THE BAD:

Pittsburgh (-9.5) @ Cincinnati (+9.5) L

THE COULD HAVE GONE EITHER WAY/NOT MY WAY THIS WEEK:

Cleveland (+7.5) @ Washington (-7.5) L
Seattle (+10.5) @ Tampa Bay (-10.5) L
Detroit (+9.5) @ Houston (-9.5) L

THE “WHAT THE $%^@”?:

Dallas (-7.0) @ St. Louis (+7.0) L
What in the world is going on with Dallas??

Indianapolis (-1.0) @ Green Bay (+1.0) L
This is the effort Indy gives after a blowout win VS. Baltimore?

Denver (+3.0) @ New England (-3.0) L
Where did Denver’s offense go, and where did New England’s come from?

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

SUNDAY

Oakland (+7.0) @ Baltimore (-7.0)
Shockingly enough, another Raider game that is impossible to predict. So far this season the Raiders have beaten Kansas City and New York (Jets), played the Bills and Chargers very close, and got destroyed by the Broncos and Saints. What do the Broncos and Saints have? An excellent passing attack. Baltimore does NOT have that, meaning they can’t exploit the Raiders’ main weakness. And the Raiders did beat the Jets and defend against the pass very well. As such, I think the Raiders have a great shot at keeping this game close. All that said, will the Raiders offense be able to move and protect the ball against a very fierce Ravens defense IN Baltimore? This is where I start leaning the other way. As always with Raider games, I must advise you to stay away; but I’m going to give the slight edge to Baltimore for their defense and for their home field advantage.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

Arizona (+4.0) @ Carolina (-4.0)
Very quietly, Carolina has established themselves as a defensive force in the NFC. With a balanced offense as well, Carolina has all the makings of a playoff team. Can’t take anything away from Arizona; they have played great this year as well, and their passing attack is outstanding. Both teams will score their share of points, but I think Carolina’s defense and home field advantage (hmm, sensing a little de ja vu from my last pick) will put them over the top here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina

Tampa Bay (+2.0) @ Dallas (-2.0)
Two teams going in completely different directions. Tampa Bay has won 5 of their last 6, and their two losses were by a combined 7 points. The defense is strong and the offense is cruising. It feels so wrong passing on Dallas at home -2.0, but this is 2008, and this Cowboys team right now is not the better team on the football field. On paper they may be; but the defense is doing nothing and with Romo out, I’m having trouble validating picking against the Buccaneers.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Tampa Bay

Washington (-7.5) @ Detroit (+7.5)
Detroit had a few huge plays that ended up earning them the cover last week against Houston, but Washington shouldn’t allow those this week. Generally I’d take the winless home team and the touchdown, but Washington is coming off of a loss to St. Louis and a too-close-for-comfort game against Cleveland; I think they keep their focus and look to flex their muscles against a very bad Detroit team this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Washington

Buffalo (-1.0) @ Miami (+1.0)
Ah, the lovely trap game. In one corner we have Buffalo, 5 – 1 coming fresh off of an impressive victory over San Diego. Trent Edwards is back, healthy, and looking great. This week he faces the 27th ranked passing defense in Miami. Miami is coming off of two straight losses and seems to have come back down to earth. So why is the spread only -1.0? Throw in the fact that Buffalo has won 7 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams and the fact that Miami lost at home last week as a favorite and is now a home underdog, it doesn’t get a whole lot more philosophical than this.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Miami

St. Louis (+7.5) @ New England (-7.5)
Very interesting, considering we are just about at the halfway point and I have no idea what to expect from either of these teams, at all. New England pounded Denver last week, but hadn’t shown anything like that in the games before that one; St. Louis stunned Washington in Washington, and then kept the crazy train rolling with a win over Dallas. The +7.5 is awfully tempting, but I actually think St. Louis is due to come back down to earth, and with Stephen Jackson not at 100% and New England having a game to build on, I’ll take my chances with the Pats.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

San Diego (-3.0) @ New Orleans (+3.0)
Football in England that doesn’t involve a spherical ball. Interesting. Really no way to tell what effect the travel will have on these teams (though we do know San Diego doesn’t seem to travel very well), so we’ll have to call that a wash and just look at the game. Yes, losing Reggie Bush is yet another big hit to the Saints offense, but they get Colston back for this game. San Diego’s passing defense is awful, and I really feel that the Saints, even without Bush, will move the ball at will through the air. The Chargers will score plenty too, but I trust Brees more than I trust Rivers. Plus, you have the cool Brees playing against his old team angle, too. I’ll take the Saints to win it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *New Orleans

Atlanta (+9.0) @ Philadelphia (-9.0)
I was completely ready to pick Atlanta, but something doesn’t look right about this game. Philly has not been a blow-out team this year, and Atlanta is coming off of an impressive win against a tough Chicago team. What is with this spread? Looking closer, you have the 4th best passing game in the league in Philly VS. the 26th ranked passing defense in Atlanta. Atlanta’s rushing game, which is 2nd best in the league, faces the league’s 9th ranked rushing defense. This just isn’t a good match up for Atlanta at all, and I think Philadelphia will win comfortably.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

Kansas City (+13.5) @ New York Jets (-13.5)
Would love to find a reason to take Kansas City, but with the Jets coming fresh off of a frustrating loss and the Chiefs once again without their best offensive weapon (Larry Johnson), it is hard to see them finding the endzone with this ragtag group of quarterbacks. Double digit underdogs have had amazing success this year, but I think this one loses big.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New York Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Jets

Cleveland (+7.0) @ Jacksonville (-7.0)
Jacksonville has won 3 games this year; by margins of 2, 3, and 7. Cleveland’s defense has looked very good over the last few weeks. Jacksonville is the clear cut better team this year, but I just think 7 points is too many to give up.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Jacksonville

Cincinnati (+9.0) @ Houston (-9.0)
After the way Houston coughed up the cover last week, I’m very hesitant to turn to them again this week; but they are the pick here. Mired in injuries and now heading out on the road without Carson Palmer, this Bengals team has to be completely demoralized. The Texans are still trying hard to get their season back on track after a rocky start, and they are playing in their 4th straight home game. A double digit win in this spot seems very reasonable.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston

New York Giants (+3.0) @ Pittsburgh (-3.0)
These teams match up pretty perfectly, and the 3 points makes perfect sense since Pittsburgh has home field advantage. This should be a game that comes down to bounces; and with Eli Manning resorting to some old bad habits and throwing some interceptions over the last few games, Pittsburgh may be the pick here. I believe, however, that the Giants defense will be able to contain Big Ben a bit better than Cincinnati and Jacksonville could, and the G-men will finish this game on top.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *New York Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *New York Giants

Seattle (+5.5) @ San Francisco (-5.5)
Seattle is decimated by injuries, and they have made me pay for taking them for three straight weeks now. Lets make it 4. They lost to Green Bay and Tampa Bay by 10 points each, and San Francisco is not as good as those two teams. I think Seneca Wallace gets a little more done against the 49ers this week, and Seattle covers; but still finds a way to lose by 3 or 4.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco

MONDAY

Indianapolis (+4.0) @ Tennessee (-4.0)
I’ve thoroughly enjoyed riding the Titan-train this year, and until I hit a rock in the tracks, I’m going to keep riding it. The betting public’s inability to appreciate great defense, as well as the betting public not realizing that Indianapolis just isn’t the same team they’ve been over the last few years, gives us a spread of only 4.0 that should be a lot closer to 7.0. Tennessee matches up perfectly to the Colts, and this is their year. They send that message Monday night in big bold letters.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 39 – 33 – 0 (.542)

Week 9 Video Here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y78Fk21qyI8

South Florida -4.0
TCU -31.0
Missouri -21.0
USC -16.0
Tulsa -23.0
Texas Tech/Kansas Over 66.0
UCLA/California Over 51.0
SMU/Navy Over 62.5

Have a great weekend and good luck everybody!
—————————————
Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!

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By Dave Consolazio, October 22, 2008 9:50 am

MLB WORLD SERIES

Philadelphia Phillies VS. Tampa Bay Rays

How can you handicap homeruns?

The Tampa Bay Rays are the popular pick, and it isn’t too hard to see why. The team is a force from top to bottom; they have an excellent lineup, a downright scary pitching staff with the emergence of Matt Garza to tack on to the 1 – 2 punch of Scott Kazmir and James Shields, and a bullpen that just got even better with David Price pulling an ’06 Adam Wainwright and stepping beautifully into the closer role.

But can you really shrug off the Phillies? Does Rollins / Werth / Utley / Howard / Burrell / Victorino / Feliz NOT strike fear into you? Not to mention, as good as Kazmir / Shields / Garza may be, it is hard to argue that Cole Hamels isn’t the best pitcher in this series, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if we saw him more than just twice in this series if it goes long enough. Brett Myers started the season off rough, had trouble in the bullpen and even spent time in the minors, but he returned to form in the 2nd half with a 7 – 4 record with a sparkling 3.06 ERA. Moyer and Blanton aren’t nearly as electric, but both are capable of eating innings. This staff should definitely be able to keep Philadelphia close all series long… which brings me back to my opening question.

How can you handicap homeruns?

I think these teams match up very well, more so then what people seem to be giving Philadelphia credit for. What the Rays can do with smart base running and timely hitting, the Phils can do with one swing of the bat. And that isn’t to say that the Phils can’t manufacture runs the old fashion way or the Rays can’t hit the long ball; I’m simply pointing out these team’s strengths.

So once again, I provide you with another meaningless write-up, telling you how evenly matched the teams are. I’d love to tell you why one team is so much better than the other that this will be an easy series to predict, but I just don’t see it. I haven’t seen it all October; I’m 2 – 4 on predicting series so far this year. Just goes to show you how good and evenly matched the baseball has been.

This time, I’m going to have to go with the Phillies. While I think the Rays might be the slightly better team, I see Hamels taking game one in Tampa Bay. That means (assuming Myers loses, which isn’t an easy assumption) that the series goes back to Philly tied up at 1 – 1, and I just have to believe the championship-deprived-crazed-madman atmosphere is going to be so completely nuts there that the Phillies will find a way to grab 2 out of 3. That would give them two chances to put it away; but putting away the Rays isn’t going to be easy. Wait, who am I taking again?

PREDICTION: Phillies in 6

(http://vegasdavesdime.podbean.com/2008/10/22/blog-world-series-preview-and-prediction/)

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By Dave Consolazio, October 17, 2008 10:00 am

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”
www.davesdime.com

THE INTRO

I’m going to be completely honest with you.

I work at a radio station that sometimes makes me work very awkward hours. Making me work 4:30AM to 6:00AM on what was supposed to be my day off Thursday is a great example. I got home at 7:00AM, and slept until 11:30AM Thursday. I haven’t been to sleep since.

I’ve been up for over 22 hours straight, and have only 4.5 hours of sleep over the last 48 hours.

So why am I telling you this? Two reasons.

One, to apologize in advance that the write-ups aren’t as good as usual. They may not be too sharp as I can barely see straight, let alone write well.

Two, the intro is usually where I try (key word, try) to be a little clever or insightful… and the part of my brain that provides cleverness and insightfulness is simply not open for business right now. So you get a boring explanation as to why that is instead.

On that note, let’s just fast forward to the picks.

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 6 – 8 – 0 (.429)
Without the spread: 6 – 8 – 0 (.429)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 3 – 0 – 0 (1.000)

Season
With the spread: 46 – 40 – 2 (.535)
Without the spread: 50 – 38 – 0 (.568)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 9 – 1 – 0 (.900)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD:

Miami (+3.0) @ Houston (-3.0) W
Cincinnati (+8.5) @ New York Jets (-8.5) W
Carolina (+1.5) @ Tampa Bay (-1.5) W
St. Louis (+13.5) @ Washington (-13.5) W
Philadelphia (-4.5) @ San Francisco (+4.5) W
New England (+4.5) @ San Diego (-4.5) W

THE BAD:

Baltimore (+4.0) @ Indianapolis (-4.0) L
Oakland (+7.0) @ New Orleans (-7.0) L
Green Bay (+1.5) @ Seattle (-1.5) L

THE COULD HAVE GONE EITHER WAY/NOT MY WAY THIS WEEK:

Chicago (-2.5) @ Atlanta (+2.5) L
Dallas (-4.5) @ Arizona (+4.5) L
THE “WHAT THE $%^@”?:

Detroit (+13.0) @ Minnesota (-13.0) L
With a back up QB and no defense, Detroit pushes Minnesota to the edge?

Jacksonville (+3.0) @ Denver (-3.0) L
Jax can’t stop Pittsburgh’s passing game at all, but then shuts down Denver in Denver??

New York Giants (-7.5) @ Cleveland (+7.5) L
Undefeated NYG gets stomped by a miserable Cleveland team… very surprising.

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

I always like to stare at the schedule long enough to find at least 6 underdogs to play, as you know every week there will be some dogs that cover, and I like to try my best to find them. I can’t this week. I have a few, but I like almost all of the favorites this week. Hope you like giving up points!

SUNDAY

San Diego (+1.0) @ Buffalo (-1.0)
Statistically, this looks like a pretty even match-up, which is indicated by the spread. I have to give the slight edge to Buffalo though; Buffalo’s defense is a bit better then San Diego’s, especially against the pass. But perhaps more importantly, San Diego is traveling cross country and playing at a time they aren’t used to (10AM Pacific Time), while Buffalo is coming fresh off of a bye and should be extra-motivated to pick up the win and shore up on defense after their blowout loss against Arizona. I like Buffalo to pick up the win at home here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Buffalo

New Orleans (+3.0) @ Carolina (-3.0)
Quite simply, when faced with the choice between a high octane offense and a shutdown defense, you should take the defense. Carolina’s passing defense is the league’s second best, and it should be able to slow down New Orleans a little better then some other teams have. Meanwhile, New Orleans defense should have trouble stopping the Panthers.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina

Minnesota (+3.0) @ Chicago (-3.0)
Minnesota’s running game has gone ice cold; teams are committing to shutting down the run and have succeeded for three straight weeks in keeping Adrian Peterson contained. If New Orleans and Detroit can do it, imagine how well Chicago’s 5th-best-in-the-league rushing defense will. And unlike New Orleans and Detroit, I don’t think Chicago lets them escape with a win.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago

Pittsburgh (-9.5) @ Cincinnati (+9.5)
Very tough to pick a winless Cincinnati team without Carson Palmer at the helm in this spot, but I’m going to do just that. Pittsburgh is using their 3rd string running back due to injuries, and Cincinnati has had success defending against the pass this year. To be honest, I’m not really sure how the Bengals find their way into the endzone with Fitzpatrick as their quarterback, but a winless team playing against a division rival at home getting 9.5 points is just not something I’m willing to bet against.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

Tennessee (-9.0) @ Kansas City (+9.0)
The league’s best defense playing against the league’s second worst offense. Of course, it is only 2nd worst thanks to Larry Johnson, the Chief’s main offensive weapon; who was suspended by the team for breaking a team rule. Did I mention the Chiefs had the league’s worst rushing defense, too? Please stop me when you see the reason to like the Chiefs here. None? Cool.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee

Baltimore (+3.0) @ Miami (-3.0)
I’m still stunned at the absolute hammering Baltimore took last week. What I do know is that the Ravens are a very proud team on defense, and I think they will play with a big chip on their shoulder this week. If Baltimore can take away the big play against the wildcat formation Miami throws out there, they should be able to keep this game close, and also pick up the win.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Baltimore

San Francisco (+10.5) @ New York Giants (-10.5)
Getting embarrassed on Monday night in Cleveland, New York now returns home to play a struggling San Francisco team. This is a game they need to win to stay atop the division, and they should come out pretty fired up after the egg they laid Monday night. I believe they will make a statement in this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New York Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Giants

Dallas (-7.0) @ St. Louis (+7.0)
Now there is some talk that Romo may play with his broken finger, which I don’t actually believe. Whether he does or doesn’t shouldn’t matter in this one. Johnson does not have Romo’s arm, but he will have so many weapons around him that he should have no trouble manufacturing scoring drives. I predicted St. Louis would keep it close last week and maybe win; and they did. But let’s not get too crazy; they are still a very bad football team. I hate laying points on a team like Dallas that has played so poorly of late, but they are definitely the pick at only 7 points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

Detroit (+9.5) @ Houston (-9.5)
Very difficult to take a team with only one win to cover by 9.5 points, but I can see them doing so. With Dan Orlovsky in at QB and Roy Williams being traded, Detroit really doesn’t have any firepower at all on offense. Unlike Minnesota last week, Houston should be able to move the ball through the air and put up points. This is Houston’s first weak opponent this year, and I think they jump at the opportunity to put up some points and win comfortably.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston

Indianapolis (-1.0) @ Green Bay (+1.0)
I’m tempted to take Green Bay here because this feels like a trap spread, but Indy convinced me that they are back last week. Baltimore’s defense is stout, and they moved the ball at will. If Woodson was 100% and Al Harris was playing, I’d consider the Packers much more strongly, but with a beat up secondary it is hard to believe they will stop the Colts if they are indeed getting on a roll here. Joseph Addai’s absence may hurt, but I think the Colts find a way to win here and are too good to pass up on at only -1.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

New York Jets (-3.0) @ Oakland (+3.0)
Please just ignore this pick. I’m 0 – 5 on picking Raider games despite knowing this team top to bottom, inside and out. You simply can not cap this team. They have so much talent and potential and you never know when it will work and when it won’t. I’m going to take the Raiders very begrudgingly because I have a really good feeling they will be fired up in front of the home crowd after a blowout loss and they will run their offense a lot better at home then they did inside the dome. The main reason I like this bet is that the spread just screams trap; Everyone loves Favre and the Jets, everyone hates the Raiders and they are the laughing stock of the league with Al Davis’s press conferences. The Raiders rely on the running game and the Jets have an excellent rushing defense. The Raiders’ passing defense is awful and the Jets love to throw the ball. I can go on and on; Why is this only 3 points and not 7 to 9 like all of the other big underdogs this week? I think the Jets are way too obvious, and the bookies know something we don’t. Oakland finds a way and surprises everyone, including me.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Oakland

Cleveland (+7.5) @ Washington (-7.5)
Cleveland coming off of a game they had no business winning, Washington coming off a game they had no business losing. This week they meet, and I believe they return things to the way they should be. Washington will not get caught sleeping two weeks in a row.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Washington

Seattle (+10.5) @ Tampa Bay (-10.5)
Seattle is decimated with injuries on offense, and more alarmingly, the defense is getting shredded. As usual, Gruden is getting the most out of his team, and they are clicking on all cylinders. They are a great home team, and Seattle does not play well on the road. Yet another favorite I’m forced to take.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay

MONDAY

Denver (+3.0) @ New England (-3.0)
Without Brady, this New England team isn’t even a shadow of what it should be. Wins against the Chiefs, 49ers, and Jets; losses against the Dolphins and Chargers. Yes, they can still beat lower end teams, but teams like Denver that have firepower and will put points on the board are going to be too tough for the Patriots to keep up with. I don’t doubt that it will be awfully tough to head into New England Monday night and leave with a win, but I feel like I am getting the better team PLUS points here. I can’t pass on that.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Denver

Sorry for all the favorites… hopefully for me it is just a favorite-pounds-dog kind of week.

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 33 – 29 – 0 (.532)

Week 8 Video Here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=en3qPUf3v6c

Hawaii +24.5
Georgia -15.0
Rice -3.0
Ohio State -3.0
Northern Illinois -7.5
Penn State -23.0
North Texas +18.5
Idaho +20.5
V Tech +2.5
Houston -12.5

Have a great weekend and good luck everybody!

—————————————
Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!

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By Dave Consolazio, October 10, 2008 10:00 am

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”
www.davesdime.com

THE INTRO

I handle big winning weeks a little differently then most people do.

Most people go 7 – 1 – 0 College, 10 – 3 – 1 Pro for a combined 17 – 4 – 1 (81%) and feel like they are on top of the world. Like they have figured it all out. Like they’ve conquered the books.

Am I happy to see my hard work finally manifest itself in a great week? Of course I am. But I can’t afford to let myself get too cocky. I relate dominating the bookmakers to “Messin’ With Sasquatch”

For those of you that haven’t seen these commercials, click here to see one.

Every commercial starts and ends the same way; some brash young man (me) decides he’s going to take a shot at Sasquatch (Vegas)… it goes very well, and it is awesome. But what happens next? Sasquatch gets upset and beats the crap out of the guy that messed with him.

Moral of the commercials? DON’T mess with Sasquatch.

Unfortunately for me, it is one of my absolute favorite thing to do.

Long story short; enjoy the ride with me and laugh along with me at Sasquatch’s expense. But don’t go abandoning me when he shatters the windshield, grabs me, and throws me off the side of the highway.

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 10 – 3 – 1 (.769)
Without the spread: 9 – 5 – 0 (.643)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 2 – 0 – 0 (1.000)
**Outright Upsets**: 1 – 1 – 0 (.500)

Season
With the spread: 40 – 32 – 2 (.556)
Without the spread: 44 – 30 – 0 (.595)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 6 – 1 – 0 (.857)
**Outright Upsets**: 6 – 14 – 0 (.300)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD:

Tennessee (-2.5) @ Baltimore (+2.5) W
Kansas City (+9.5) @ Carolina (-9.5) W
Washington (+6.0) @ Philadelphia (-6.0) W
Indianapolis (-3.0) @ Houston (+3.0) W
Atlanta (+7.0) @ Green Bay (-7.0) W
Chicago (-3.5) @ Detroit (+3.5) W
Buffalo (+1.0) @ Arizona (-1.0) W
New England (-3.0) @ San Francisco (+3.0) W
Cincinnati (+16.5) @ Dallas (-16.5) W
Minnesota (+3.0) @ New Orleans (-3.0) W

THE BAD:

Pittsburgh (+4.0) @ Jacksonville (-4.0) L
Seattle (+7.0) @ New York Giants (-7.0) L

THE COULD HAVE GONE EITHER WAY/NOT MY WAY THIS WEEK:

Tampa Bay (+3.0) @ Denver (-3.0) T

THE “WHAT THE $%^@”?:

San Diego (-6.0) @ Miami (+6.0) L
What is going on with San Diego? Everyone is talking about the Wildcat offense, but the real story here is San Diego not being able to score on a fairly average defense.

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

SUNDAY

Chicago (-2.5) @ Atlanta (+2.5)
Pretty remarkable to consider coming into this season Atlanta was projected to win about 4 games on the year. Instead, they are 3 – 2, fresh off of a win in Green Bay, and they really do look good. All respect to them, I just don’t see them winning in this spot. Their 3 wins have come against a hobbled Green Bay and two of the absolute worst teams in the league in Kansas City and Detroit. Chicago is a big step up from the teams they’ve beaten. Not to mention, in order for Atlanta to be effective, they need to establish the run; which will be extremely tough to do against one of the league’s best rushing defenses. I think the Bears win by 2 scores or more, so I love them at only -2.5.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago

Miami (+3.0) @ Houston (-3.0)
Here’s a good ol’ fashion winning trend; bet AGAINST teams that are coming off of three straight division rivalry games that are favored the following week. It helps that Miami is clicking and playing with confidence, and the Texans always seem to find a way to lose. Houston will turn things around and get some wins as the season moves on; but it won’t be this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Miami

Baltimore (+4.0) @ Indianapolis (-4.0)
Indianapolis is a couple of bounces away from being 0 – 4. They had an improbable comeback from down 15 – 0 in Minnesota a few weeks back, and they had the miracle of all miracles last week down 27 – 10 with under 5 minutes to go (thanks to an epic collapse from Houston, and more specifically, Sage Rosenfels). This team just hasn’t been very good; bad offensive line play is making things difficult for Peyton, and bad rushing defense is keeping the ball control in the opponents favor. Baltimore is the real deal; I don’t believe it either, but this defense is as nasty as any in the league. They should do a fine job of keeping the pressure on Peyton and running the ball; and unlike the Vikings and Texans, they have the defense and the intelligence to close it out. I like them outright.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Baltimore

Detroit (+13.0) @ Minnesota (-13.0)
As if things weren’t bad enough for Detroit, go ahead and add a Kitna back injury to the mix. Bad news, considering the long ball was really the only chance Detroit had. Completely shut down last week, Peterson should have big-game on the mind against a terrible defense in Detroit. There just isn’t much reason to believe Minnesota doesn’t win this game by two touchdowns or much more.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Minnesota

Oakland (+7.0) @ New Orleans (-7.0)
Damnit, Oakland is back, another loss on my card. I will adamantly stand by the fact that at times this Oakland team has looked as good as any, but it is so difficult to predict how long the good side will play and how long the bad side will play. The main problem Oakland has had though is pressure on Russell; and I don’t think the Saints are going to get to him as often as the Chargers and Bills were able to. The return of Justin Fargas, the bye week to get a bit healthier, Lane Kiffin finally fired (like pulling a band-aid; just good to get it over with finally)… I’ll take my chances with a touchdown’s worth of points and pray that the “A-team” shows up.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

Cincinnati (+6.0) @ New York Jets (-6.0)
The Bengals have really looked pretty good in pushing both the Giants and the Cowboys to the limit, and you have to throw out the Cleveland game as Palmer wasn’t playing. Palmers health is my only concern here; if he is out, this is an automatic win for the Jets. But I’m going to assume he plays and stays in the game; and going with that assumption, I think the Bengals win this game. They have a surprisingly solid passing defense (6th in the league in yards against), they have shown they have no fear at all of playing on the road, and the Jets are overrated and have the league’s worst passing defense. If Palmer plays this game from start to finish, I think the Bengals find a way to steal their first victory.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Cincinnati

Carolina (+1.5) @ Tampa Bay (-1.5)
This game is just so damn evenly matched it is unfair. Great defenses, effective offenses. It is still a little too early in the season for me to get a good read on what these teams are made of. But so far this season, Tampa Bay has looked much better at home then they do on the road, and Carolina looks worse on the road then they do at home. Home field advantage is usually the way to go when deciding on a coin-flip, and putting Garcia back in as the starter should give Tampa Bay the extra little boost they need.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay

St. Louis (+13.5) @ Washington (-13.5)
Wow, is Washington real or what? For a team written off as doomed before the season even started, they won two impressive games against New Orleans and Arizona, then went on the road and beat Dallas as a double digit underdog and Philly as a 6 point underdog. After two intense road games against division rivals and winning both, there is absolutely no way they could have enough left in the tank to get amped up for a game against the pitiful Rams. The Rams, meanwhile, are coming fresh off of a bye with a new coach and with Bulger back in the driver’s seat; you’d better believe he’ll be ready to prove he belongs there. This is such a massive letdown situation for Washington it is unbelievable. St. Louis is the best bet of the day, and if you are a daredevil, you might even want to try the moneyline upset, too.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Washington

Jacksonville (+3.0) @ Denver (-3.0)
I get the feeling I might regret this pick, but unfortunately, I actually watched the Jacksonville/Pittsburgh game. I watched as a Pittsburgh team with no running back and an anemic offense torched Jacksonville’s secondary (which had to be LOOKING pass!) all game long. In Jacksonville! Now they head out to Denver, a tough enough place to play for both atmosphere and altitude, and a better offense in Denver should have a field day against this defense unless they improve substantially on last week’s effort. At only minus 3 here I think Denver has way too much going for them to ignore.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver

Dallas (-4.5) @ Arizona (+4.5)
Like Dallas here for a few reasons. First of all, the spread. Arizona coming off of a blowout win against undefeated Buffalo, Dallas coming off of a game where they struggled against the winless Bengals. Doesn’t +4.5 for Arizona at home look extremely enticing here? Think trap. Not to mention, Dallas lost to the hated Redskins two weeks ago and had trouble against the lowly Bengals last week, and the media is having a field day with the Pacman Jones story and the Terrell Owens saga. How much do you think Dallas wants to shut every last one of them up with a dominant win here?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

Philadelphia (-4.5) @ San Francisco (+4.5)
Philly has looked sharp at points this season, but they haven’t been able to put games away. They could have won the Dallas and Washington games, and they were a yard away in the Chicago game. This team still has a ton of talent and they are simply a better football team then the 49ers. This is a must win for them to get back on track, and to be honest, I love that I only have to give up 4.5, as I’d likely taken them all the way up to -7.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

Green Bay (+1.5) @ Seattle (-1.5)
Seattle coming off of a humiliating loss against a very tough Giants team returns home, where they play substantially better; especially with their backs against the wall. Green Bay is coming off of a home loss to Atlanta and their spirits have to be low. They are ravaged with injuries and now they have to play in a very hostile environment in Seattle. I think the Seahawks kick the Packers while they are down and pick up the win back at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle

New England (+4.5) @ San Diego (-4.5)
Much like the Dallas game, I like this game simply because of the spread. You have a New England team coming off of a nice win against San Francisco (getting everyone to believe in them again), and a San Diego team not only coming off of a loss to Miami, but that has also looked pretty terrible all season long. It is extremely hard not to like New England here, especially considering how well they always play against San Diego. 4.5 points is hard to pass on, and even the upset seems very realistic at a good price. You know what I like to do when things look far too obvious; throw it all out the window and bet the other way. Not to mention, San Diego HATES this team and should have revenge on the mind. I don’t know how they’ll do it, but I believe San Diego will find a way to win this game by a TD at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^San Diego

MONDAY

New York Giants (-7.5) @ Cleveland (+7.5)
Cleveland is just flat out bad this year. The offense is just not there, and the defense isn’t good enough to make up for that. The Giants, meanwhile, are undefeated; and it would appear that Eli Manning has arrived. The Giants are working on all cylinders and are a substantially better team then Cleveland; find it hard to believe that they will falter with the whole country watching on Monday Night Football. New York should roll here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New York Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Giants

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 30 – 24 – 0 (.556)

Week 7 Video Here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LK2A84DIkgk

Texas Tech -20.5
Northern Illinois -11.0
Arkansas +18.5
Tulsa -25.0
Idaho +34.0
Texas/Oklahoma Under 57
Kansas State/Texas A&M Over 62
Michigan State/Northwestern Under 47

Have a great weekend and good luck everybody!

————————————–
Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!

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By Dave Consolazio, October 9, 2008 9:41 am

American League Championship

*Boston Red Sox VS. Tampa Bay Rays*

This is the kind of match up that is simply impossible to predict.

Both teams have very capable offenses, especially at the top of the lineup. The mix and match of speed (Iwamura, Upton, and Crawford) and power (Longoria, Pena, Floyd) gives the Rays a versatile offense that is very difficult to pitch against and handle on the base pads. The Red Sox have two pesky young players that hit for average and are dangerous on the bases in Ellsbury and Pedroia, and then they bludgeon you with power 3 to 6 with Ortiz, Youkilis, Drew, and Bay.

From 1 to 6, there is just no way to pitch around this Red Sox line-up; and this is WITHOUT Lowell! What the Rays lose in the top 6 match-up is made up for in the bottom 3 match-up; without Lowell, the Red Sox bottom three is a notable weakness, while the Rays round out their line-up with Bartlett and Navarro; neither with much power, but both can hit for average and keep an inning or a rally alive. – Slight edge to the Red Sox.

Starting pitching is another tough one to call. Scott Kazmir and James Shields are an excellent one-two punch, and when their stuff if on, they are awfully hard to beat. Garza and Sonnanstine are good young pitchers but are hit or miss; Garza was rattled in the ALDS, which is definitely a concern for the Rays. Sonnanstine is not overpowering, but often pitches well enough to at least give the team a chance to win.

The Red Sox meanwhile continue to pitch insanely well. Jon Lester has emerged as a true ace this year, and has proven in out dueling John Lackey twice that he is not wavering in the playoffs. Daisuke Matsuzaka continues to defy logic, reason, and baseball by putting base runners on and getting into jams and finding away to escape from them every single time. Josh Beckett did not pitch well in his game against the Angels, but it is hard to count such a perennial playoff all-star out. And whoever they decide to go with if they need a 4th pitcher, Wakefield/Byrd/Colon are all capable of at least pitching well enough to keep their team in the game. Once again, I have to give an edge to the Red Sox.

Bullpens are strong points for both teams. Runs are going to be hard to come by in the later innings of these games, which is going to make starting pitching and jumping out to early leads that much more important. No edge for either team here really; other then perhaps the playoff experience of the Red Sox.

So I give the Red Sox the edge in every category. So why am I saying this series is impossible to predict? Quite simply, it is because every bit of pressure is on the Red Sox. Obviously the Angels let it get in their heads that they couldn’t beat the Red Sox, and they crumbled in some key situations. The Rays will not do the same; they are not afraid of anyone. They aren’t afraid of the aura that comes with the Red Sox. They are just a bunch of brash kids out to prove the world wrong.

Meanwhile the Red Sox have already been penciled in to the World Series, and now that the Angels are out of the way, the media figures they can only beat themselves at this point. If they play with fire like they did against the Angels, they may not get away with it against a team that has already vastly surpassed their expectations, has nothing to lose, and has taken advantage of opponent mistakes all season long. How do you beat a team with no fear of losing?

I’m going to take the Red Sox. They have the edge on the field, and believe they are too accustomed to winning come playoff time (so crazy to read that still…) to cough up 4 games in this series. Plus, there is always the chance the Rays finally crumble under the pressure. Should be an awesome series.

PREDICTION: Red Sox in 7

(http://vegasdavesdime.podbean.com/2008/10/09/blog-mlb-american-league-championship-preview/)

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By Dave Consolazio, October 8, 2008 8:18 am

So here we are; the MLB League Championships. Obviously the playoffs wouldn’t be the playoffs without a few upsets, and we had two of them involving Southern California teams (Note I don’t say Los Angeles teams; Anaheim isn’t in Los Angeles). The Angels fell to the defending champion Red Sox in a minor upset, but more stunningly, the Dodgers swept the Cubs to advance to the NLCS.

In baseball, you not only have the daunting task of outlasting your division or every other wild card team over a 162 game schedule; you also have to do so without peaking too early. Timing is everything; the Cubs may have been a better team then the Dodgers for most of the year, but in the three games that it mattered most, the Dodgers were the better team. No excuses, no curses, they were simply the better team.

So with four teams left, the question is now, who is simply the better team in these two series? Unfortunately for those of us who try and predict things, it is only simple to see who the better team was AFTER the fact.

National League Championship

*Los Angeles Dodgers VS. Philadelphia Phillies*

How do you cap a team like the Dodgers? On paper they are a solid to above-average team; but they rarely seem to play like one on the field. They usually either play like duds, or they play like champions. In the Cubs series, they proved quite convincingly that when they are on their game, they can beat anyone in the league. So what can we expect from them against the Phillies? The Phillies out-slugged Milwaukee, and with their powerhouse line-up, they can mash the ball against just about anyone. They have experience on their side as they made the playoffs last year.

But as is usually the case in baseball, this series will come down to pitching. Just how good are these Dodger pitchers? Pretty amazing to see such an impressive 1 – 2 – 3 punch without Brad Penny, Jason Schmidt, or Clayton Kershaw’s name involved in it. Derek Lowe had a strong regular season and always steps up big in the playoffs. Chad Billingsley has established himself as a true ace this year. And Kuroda has stepped right into the MLB without issue, and while he isn’t overpowering, he keeps you in the game; which, when the Dodgers are on, is all they need.

The Phillies are just outclassed here; Cole Hamels is an ace and very dangerous, but he is also matched up against Lowe, a playoff veteran that isn’t likely to leave much room for error. Myers needs to be at his very best to match up to Billingsley, and while season win totals would certainly suggest otherwise (in Moyer’s favor), Kuroda and Moyer are pretty evenly matched. If it comes down to a 4th pitcher, Joe Blanton would face one of the game’s all-time greats in Greg Maddux. Old he may be, but he is still effective and a better pitcher then Blanton.

So the question is, can the Phillies hit their way out of their pitching disadvantage? If anyone can, it’d certainly be them. But I’m going to give the Dodgers the edge here; assuming the Cubs series is an indication of what we will see from them and not merely a façade, I can’t see them losing this series. If the offense could score on Dempster, Zambrano, and Harden, it is hard to see their bats going totally quiet against this staff.

PREDICTION: Dodgers in 6

(http://vegasdavesdime.podbean.com/2008/10/08/blog-mlb-national-league-championship-preview/)

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By Dave Consolazio, October 3, 2008 10:00 am

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”
www.davesdime.com

THE INTRO

Parity, parity, parity.

No, I’m not talking about Tina Fey’s rendition of Sarah Palin. That’s parody.

I’m talking about parity, the equality between teams. How absolutely crazy it is how true the “any given Sunday/Saturday” mantra has been lately.

Unranked Oregon State, Ole Miss, Michigan, Navy, and Maryland upset #1 USC, #4 Florida, #9 Wisconsin, #17 Wake Forest, and #20 Clemson, respectively. (Speaking of which, make sure you watch this week’s Spare Change and tell me which upset was worse, USC or Florida!)

Everyone laughs and says “Oh that college football, so wild, lets return to some normalcy in pro football.” Only to see 9.5 point underdog Kansas City beat Denver, and 11 point underdog Washington beat Dallas. And +8.0 Oakland and +9.0 St. Louis came close, too.

College football is always madness, but in pro football, there are usually some sure things. Indy wins the AFC South, San Diego wins the AFC West, New England wins the AFC East, Pittsburgh probably wins the AFC North.

Would you believe NONE of them are leading their divisions?

Sure, lots of football left to be played, not saying those teams are done for. Merely pointing out it has been a wild ride thus far and there is still quite a bit of time left.

Did I mention roller coasters make me nauseous? 5 weeks in and I’m turning green already.

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 7 – 6 – 0 (.538)
Without the spread: 8 – 5 – 0 (.615)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 1 – 0 – 0 (1.000)
**Outright Upsets**: 1 – 2 – 0 (.333)

Season
With the spread: 30 – 29 – 1 (.508)
Without the spread: 35 – 25 – 0 (.583)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 4 – 1 – 0 (.800)
**Outright Upsets**: 5 – 13 – 0 (.278)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD:

Atlanta (+6.5) @ Carolina (-6.5) W
Cleveland (+3.5) @ Cincinnati (-3.5) W
Minnesota (+3.0) @ Tennessee (-3.0) W
San Francisco (+5.0) @ New Orleans (-5.0) W
Denver (-9.5) @ Kansas City (+9.5) W
Buffalo (-9.0) @ St. Louis (+9.0) W
Washington (+11.0) @ Dallas (-11.0) W

THE BAD:

Arizona (+1.0) @ New York Jets (-1.0) L
Green Bay (+1.0) @ Tampa Bay (-1.0) L
Houston (+7.0) @ Jacksonville (-7.0) L

THE COULD HAVE GONE EITHER WAY/NOT MY WAY THIS WEEK:

Philadelphia (-3.0) @ Chicago (+3.0) L
Baltimore (+5.0) @ Pittsburgh (-5.0) L

THE “WHAT THE $%^@”?:

San Diego (-8.0) @ Oakland (+8.0) L
18 – 18 with less then 4 minutes to go. Oakland kicking off. If they tackle Sproles on the 20 or 30 like they have all game, SD takes the 3 mins and change for a game winning drive and +8 covers. Instead Sproles runs into FG range and SD kicks the FG to go ahead… Raiders turn the ball over on downs… All SD needs to do is get one 1st down to run out the clock. Instead, Tomlinson busts a 42 yard TD run. What an absolutely miserable way to lose.

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

Tricky week this week, lots of good games. Should be interesting.

SUNDAY

Tennessee (-2.5) @ Baltimore (+2.5)
Well I’m sold; Baltimore appears to be the real deal this year. And Joe Flacco is looking like a great fit. That said, Tennessee just might be the best team in the AFC this year. They can run the ball with finesse, they can run the ball with power, and they can defend against anyone. In what should be an intense defensive struggle, I’ll take the undefeated Titans.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee

Kansas City (+9.5) @ Carolina (-9.5)
Okay, I’m very proud of myself for taking the Chiefs last week. Wish I’d have taken them straight up, too. Huge win against a very tough team in Denver. That is what happens when one team is riding too high and the other is riding too low. Now, this team goes on the road against a tough Carolina team and comes back down to earth. Damon Huard gives this team a much better chance to win (or, at least cover), but I still think the Chiefs fall hard after their big upset last week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina

San Diego (-6.0) @ Miami (+6.0)
Before their bye week, I took Miami to cover against New England because I felt New England didn’t have the passing game (Wow, never thought I’d type that!) to exploit the glaring weakness in Miami; their passing defense. San Diego, on the other hand, should have no trouble exploiting this weakness. Also worth noting is that San Diego’s pass defense has also been pretty awful; but Pennington doesn’t have the arm strength to exploit this. As such, I think this is a great spot for the Chargers.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

Washington (+6.0) @ Philadelphia (-6.0)
For three straight weeks, Washington has defeated tough opponents; Arizona, New Orleans, and Dallas, and yet they are still getting no respect. I could definitely see a letdown after the big upset last week. I could also see Philadelphia coming out with a big effort after last week’s tough loss. But that said, I think Washington is very real, especially on defense. And you know how much I enjoy getting a lot of points in NFC East rivalry games; like it even more when they shouldn’t be getting this many.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

Indianapolis (-3.0) @ Houston (+3.0)
Houston had a great game against Jacksonville last week, which you have to give them credit for. They do have some things going for them, and I do believe they are better then what they have shown in the early stages of the season. But I still don’t think 3 points is nearly enough to consider them in this spot. Indy got off to a rocky start this season too, and with Tennessee running away with the division and Jacksonville finding their groove, this is not a game Indianapolis can afford to lose. They overcome their injury issues and get the key win here in Houston.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

Seattle (+7.0) @ New York Giants (-7.0)
To be honest, this is a bit of a faith pick. Seattle has serious issues, including the major injuries in their receiving core, but I still think they are a very good football team. Looking back, the loss at Buffalo wasn’t as bad as it initially looked as they have shown to be a contender; and the San Francisco loss was the result of some really bad bounces. So I’m going on faith in my preseason assessment of this team that they can compete on any given week. The Giants needless to say are among the best in the NFC, but they haven’t been completely overpowering this season, especially in the close one against Cincinnati a few weeks ago. I’ll take my chances on Seattle making a game of it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Giants

Atlanta (+7.0) @ Green Bay (-7.0)
Green Bay is absolutely demolished by injuries right now. So much so that there will be some banged up guys in the game this week simply because they need to be. With Harris out and Woodson with a toe injury, this secondary is severely depleted. I can’t bring myself to pick Atlanta to win as they haven’t proven they can beat the big opponent yet, and Green Bay losing their third straight at home also seems iffy; but I do believe it will go down to the wire.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

Chicago (-3.5) @ Detroit (+3.5)
This spread really confuses me. So far this season Chicago has beaten the Colts, lost by a FG to Carolina on a late comeback, lost to Tampa Bay by a FG on a late comeback, and then beaten Philadelphia on a late stand. Now they play the 2nd worst team in the NFL (Congrats to St. Louis on #1) and are only giving up 3.5 points? As much as I want to take Detroit for how fishy this spread is, it might just be because people still think Detroit is better then they’ve looked so far and Chicago has kept every game close. Matt Forte is going to run all over this defense. I can’t see too many scenarios in which Chicago does not win this game easily.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago

Tampa Bay (+3.0) @ Denver (-3.0)
This is such a tough pick, but I really have a ton of respect for Tampa Bay, especially on defense. They’ve topped Green Bay, Chicago, and Atlanta and came very close in the season opener to beating NO. The jury is out on Denver… they cruised through Oakland, San Diego, and New Orleans, but all of these teams have shown to be extremely vulnerable against the pass. They then lose to Kansas City. This is the toughest defense they have faced, and how they respond will tell us a lot about what this team is made of; but I for one am going with the Bucs. They have actually looked surprisingly good on offense, and Denver’s defense is so awful, they should be able to score enough to win even if they can’t shut Denver down.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Tampa Bay

Buffalo (+1.0) @ Arizona (-1.0)
You have an undefeated team going up against a team that just got absolutely destroyed last week… and the team that got completely destroyed is the favorite. Doesn’t that seem a little too suspicious to you? I still think Buffalo is the real deal (even if they only seem to play the 2nd half the last few games), and Arizona has certainly shown flaws in losing two straight. But none of that matters; betting Buffalo is clearly the bet the bookmakers want me to make, and I know better then to try and outsmart them, so Arizona it is; with confidence.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^Arizona

New England (-3.0) @ San Francisco (+3.0)
Yes, New England lost to the Dolphins. Yes, they are no longer a superpower unbeatable dynasty. But they are still a good football team. They’ve also had a week off to go over what went wrong in the Dolphins game and how to prepare for the 49ers game. You can hate New England all you want, but they are a well coached football team that will still compete this year. They should pick up a win here against San Francisco; unless, of course, Frank Gore goes Ronnie Brown on them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

Cincinnati (+16.5) @ Dallas (-16.5)
This is PRO football, and this is way too many points. Dallas will be hungry to win convincingly after last week’s big upset, and they obviously have the talent to do so. But a winless Cincinnati is not just going to roll over, and with the return of Chris Henry they have an extra weapon to throw to. Don’t get me wrong; Dallas should win this game, and they should win it big. But this is the NFL, and I don’t give up 16.5 points to anyone, unless we are dealing with the 2007 Patriots.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

Pittsburgh (+4.0) @ Jacksonville (-4.0)
Pittsburgh’s offense has been a major disappointment this year, and losing Rashard Mendenhall with Willie Parker already out is a devastating blow for a team that needs to establish the run to be successful. Jacksonville has been far from dominant this year, but they’ve got too much talent on defense and too good of a game-planning coach in Jack Del Rio for me to believe that they won’t be able to completely shut down the Steelers’ offense. It may be close for a while, but eventually Jones-Drew and Taylor will grind down the defense and win by 6 or more.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Jacksonville

MONDAY

Minnesota (+3.0) @ New Orleans (-3.0)
Minnesota hasn’t looked good this year, but their schedule has been absolutely brutal. @Green Bay, Indianapolis, Carolina, @Tennessee. Damn. Not that New Orleans is much easier, but they’ve got injury issues and a defense that shouldn’t be able to stop Peterson and Taylor. Given the chance to set the tone with their running game, I think Minnesota can keep New Orleans’ high octane offense off the field and control the clock. Also factor in the fact that Minnesota lost a game on Monday night already this year, and they will play even harder to prevent themselves from being embarrassed twice on the grand stage. Their season also hangs in the balance at 1 – 3. Just too many motivational factors working in Minnesota’s favor this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *^Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *^Minnesota

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 23 – 23 – 0 (.500)

Week 4 Video Here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=elddewVzi1Q

Penn State -13.0
West Virginia -13.
Oklahoma -26.5
Illinois +3.0
Texas Tech -7.0
SMU +14.5
TCU -24.0
Arizona -21.0

Have a great weekend and good luck everybody!

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By Dave Consolazio, October 1, 2008 10:02 am

Before I start on the breakdowns, I have to admit that I hate the first round of the playoffs in the MLB with a passion. Baseball is a marathon, not a race; the season lasts 162 games, a true test of endurance, commitment, and perseverance. Teams must overcome a season full of slumps, injuries, and media scrutiny. Not only is their season significantly longer then any other major sports’, but there are also fewer playoff spots up for grabs then the others as well.

In the NBA and NHL, half of the league makes the playoffs. In the NFL there are 12 spots up for grabs. But in Major League Baseball, after a grueling 162 game season, only 8 teams remain. Taking all this into account, tell me how it makes any sense at all that the first round is only a best-of-5 instead of a best-of-7? Are we really in that big of a hurry to get rid of half of the 8 playoff teams that we can’t give them an extra 2 games to decide their fate out on the field? This format annoys me to no end.

Great, I’m glad we got that out of the way. Now moving on to the 2008 playoffs, what bothers me a lot about these match-ups is the fact that I just don’t see any upsets here. The best-of-5 usually lends itself to an upset or two, which makes it really hard for me to believe every favorite will escaped unscathed. Usually I can spot the live underdogs; this year, all of the favorites look pretty true. But because I’m giving you nothing but favorites, I’ll give you the keys to potential upsets; and you can decide for yourself which ones are more likely then others.

*Boston Red Sox VS. Los Angeles Angels*

I feel like I’ve seen this somewhere before… oh wait, I have. Twice. And the last two times, Boston won this series easily. One major difference this year is Manny Ramirez. Yes, Boston’s offense is still plenty potent, but there was an aura about Ramirez, especially come playoff time, as he is one of the all time great hitters in October. Also not on the mound for game one is Josh Beckett, still suffering from a strained oblique. Beckett has been un-hittable in the playoffs for his entire career, and taking nothing away from Jon Lester, this is the guy they needed on the mound more then once in this series.

What else has changed? The Angels are still just as dominant in the starting pitching and bullpen department as they have been the past few years. But this year, they are actually a threat on offense for a change. They still play small ball as well as anybody, but add to that Torii Hunter and Mark Texiera, and not to mention the emergence of Howie Kendrick, and this team has very real run scoring ability. The Angels aren’t perfect, but they really don’t have any flaws. They have to believe that this is their year, and despite the fact that Boston is no pushover, I simply do not see the Angels losing this series, especially with home field advantage. John Lackey should get things started right in game one, and in game two, Matsuzaka’s tendency to walk runners WILL hurt him on the road against a very smart base running team.

PREDICTION: Angels in 4

HOW COULD THEY BE UPSET?: Well, this is the defending World Champions we are talking about. They have a very potent offense as well as a shutdown bullpen late in the game. Also worth noting that this was Santana’s and Saunders’ first real breakout years; could they fold under the pressure of these huge playoff games?

*Chicago White Sox VS. Tampa Bay Rays*

We can go on and on about what a great story the Rays are, but instead of focusing on the story, lets focus on how great this TEAM is. They are just like the Angels; they play great small ball, they have guys that can crush the ball, they have a great young pitching staff, and they have an outstanding bullpen. If these two teams can avoid upsets it should set up for an outstanding AL Championship. Losing Carlos Quentin was a huge loss for the White Sox, and while they still have lots of pop in their bats, they are also very prone to go cold. The starting pitching is alright, but not great. I just think Tampa Bay is the better team across the board, and they should be able to handle the White Sox without issue.

PREDICTION: Rays in 3

HOW COULD THEY BE UPSET?: Veterans VS. Youth. The White Sox have not only been here before, but they also have the added motivation of guys like Ken Griffey Jr and Jim Thome knowing this is likely their last chance. The Rays are completely inexperienced in the playoffs, and the added pressure may get to them. All it takes is a few errors and an early home loss to mess with their psyche. It certainly wouldn’t be the first time a hot young team lost to a bunch of wily old vets.

*Milwaukee Brewers VS. Philadelphia Phillies*

If Sabathia were pitching game one and Sheets were healthy, we could definitely open the folder on the upset here. Instead, we are left with Yovani Gallardo coming back after spending virtually the entire season on the DL, against one of the best offenses in the game on the road in the playoffs? I just can’t see this ending well for him. Both of these teams can absolutely crush the ball, so it is really going to come down to which team gets crushed less.

Without Sheets (or a fairly-brought-up-to-speed Gallardo), Milwaukee just doesn’t have the depth in their staff or bullpen to stop this juggernaut Phillies offense. Be it Parra, Suppan, or Bush, I don’t see any of the above winning the pitching duel. Brett Myers started the season off terribly, but has looked good in the 2nd half, and the ageless Jamie Moyer has looked good all season. Not to mention that Cole Hamels VS. anyone not named Sabathia is a serious mismatch in Philly’s favor. In an awfully fun to watch series, Philly should hit their way into the NL Championship.

PREDICTION: Phillies in 4

HOW COULD THEY BE UPSET?: Simply, they get outhit. But more specifically, this series could easily go to game 5. Assuming Cole Hamels and Philly win game 1, and Sabathia and the Brewers win game 2 (both seem very realistic), the series goes back to Milwaukee. Here is where the pitching situation gets ugly for Milwaukee; but this is the first playoff game this team has had in almost 3 decades. You think this crowd won’t be crazy? If they can cheer their way to steal a game and head back to Philly, and put Sabathia back on the mound… it could get very, very interesting.

CONSIDER THIS: After the Phillies win game one (assuming they do), the series price for Milwaukee will be very high; this is the best series-upset value you will find in the divisional round I believe.

*Los Angeles Dodgers VS. Chicago Cubs*

Acquiring Manny Ramirez (and less so, Casey Blake) helped the Dodgers outlast the Diamondbacks to win the NL West. The Dodgers aren’t great in any aspect of the game, but they aren’t really weak in any category, either. They play pretty sound baseball and let their opponent win or lose the game. I think in this instance, the Cubs will WIN these games. They have too many good bats in this lineup, and their 1-2-3 punch of Ryan Dempster, Rich Harden, and Carlos Zambrano is just insanely good. Chicago has come too far to roll over to an inferior team here, and Lou Pinella will not let his team come out flat. Sorry for the short write-up here, but I feel Chicago dominates this series.

PREDICTION: Cubs in 3

HOW COULD THEY BE UPSET?: If they beat themselves. First of all, the aura around Joe Torre in the playoffs is huge, and the mantra around what choke artists the Cubs are in the playoffs over the last oh, say, CENTURY is even huger. Each SP is also not without flaw; This is Dempster’s first season being a SP in a while and his first season ever being so dominant… does fatigue over a long season or pressure in the playoffs cause him to falter? Harden strikes out so many batters that he sometimes throws so many pitches that he leaves the game after 5 innings. Zambrano is proven to be a hothead that when on is among the best in the game, but when rattled can be a complete disaster. And lets not forget Manny Ramirez’s history in the playoffs. Will the Cubs find a way to self implode?

(http://vegasdavesdime.podbean.com/2008/10/01/blog-mlb-divisional-playoff-predictions/)