Archives for December 2008

2008 Dave’s Dime Week 17

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By Dave Consolazio, December 26, 2008 10:00 am

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”
www.davesdime.com

THE INTRO

Another 8 – 8 week.

I could complain about how brutal losing that Jacksonville and Carolina game were, among others, but that’s just football.

What bugs me the most about last week? I didn’t take St. Louis and Green Bay, even though right in my write-up I said “this should be a philosophy pick, but I have enough of those already”.

Who cares how many you have? Each game is an individual event. I need to break the habit of worrying about what I picked in other games.

Week 17 is one of the toughest weeks to cap. You don’t know who will be resting, who will be playing, all you can do is make educated guesses. But its hard enough to win when you DO know who is playing!

But I will say this. Two weeks ago, I didn’t go dog heavy because I simply forgot it was that time of year. Last week, I went dog heavy but I didn’t fully commit, and it cost me on a few games I’d have normally taken.

This week? I’m all-in on garbage.

Hope you like playing 72 off-suit against pocket aces, because I’ll be doing it plenty this week.

As I said last week: Embrace the chaos.

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 8 – 8 – 0 (.500)
Without the spread: 6 – 10 – 0 (.375)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 4 – 3 – 0 (.571)

Season

With the spread: 122 – 112 – 6 (.521)
Without the spread: 149 – 90 – 1 (.623)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 22 – 9 – 0 (.710)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

SUNDAY

Kansas City (+3.0) @ Cincinnati (-3.0)
The battle of two very competitive terrible teams. Cincinnati has picked up two straight wins, while Kansas City has fought admirably over the last month in losing efforts (and a win over Oakland). I think this one will come down to who wants it more; and we all know that Herm Edwards PLAYS – TO WIN – THE GAME, even when his team is well out of it. Fresh off of two wins, I think Cincinnati has to be content with the way they’ve closed out their season, and Kansas City goes out a little hungrier and picks up the win. It also helps that Cincinnati’s 4th-worst-in-the-league rushing attack won’t be able to exploit Kansas City’s gaping weakness; its rushing defense.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Kansas City

Oakland (+13.0) @ Tampa Bay (-13.0)
Team that needs a win VS. bottom dweller team? It doesn’t get a whole lot more win-needing or bottom-dwelling then these two. And as usual, we get a ton of points for taking the garbage. When the Raiders are involved you can never count out a blowout loss; but with the confidence gained from last week and a seemingly healthy rushing duo of Fargas and McFadden, the Raiders could keep this one in single digits.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay

Cleveland (+11.0) @ Pittsburgh (-11.0)
Pittsburgh has nothing to play for; absolutely nothing. They will be the 2nd seed in the AFC West and get a bye next week win, lose, or tie. As such, I simply can’t lay 11 points on a team with no motivation at all. They’ll do the “rah-rah go into the playoffs on a high note” bit, but they probably know that even a half hearted effort should be enough to beat the Browns. The Browns meanwhile will be playing for pride against a hated rival, and Bruce Gradkowski will get the chance to start, and he’ll be auditioning for a job (at least as a backup) somewhere next year. Lots of reasons to like the points here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

New England (-6.0) @ Buffalo (+6.0)
Buffalo has done a great job in the role of spoiler so far this year, so why not this game? As I mentioned last week I almost always go with division rival home dogs this late in the season, and the fact that New England NEEDS this win makes it all the more enticing. New England has scored 47 plus in 2 straight games, yet they are only a 6 point favorite here? Roughly 82% of bettors are on New England, and the line moved from 6.5 to 6? And it is NEW ENGLAND, a team that the public adores anyway? If none of this seems fishy to you, by all means, grab the Patriots and root for another 40 point performance; I’m taking the Bills to end New England’s season early.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Buffalo

St. Louis (+14.0) @ Atlanta (-14.0)
St. Louis really isn’t any threat to actually win this game, but you know how I feel about betting bad teams against teams that need a win. And Atlanta most certainly does; Yes they make the playoffs no matter what, but a win here gives them the 2nd seed if Carolina loses. 1st round bye and 1st playoff game at home, or playing next week and the next (if you make it) on the road? Needless to say, this one matters. Even still, 14 points is quite a bit; if they get up 14 or 17, I’m sure they will rest starters and give St. Louis a chance to creep back into a cover.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

Chicago (+3.0) @ Houston (-3.0)
This is one of those games that I believe the spread tells the whole story. The Bears have won 3 straight and are alive in the playoff race, and can even win the NFC North with a win and a Minnesota loss. The Texans are coming off of a loss to the Oakland Raiders. And the TEXANS are the FG favorite here? That pretty much tells you all you need to know. Need more? Houston’s 4th ranked passing attack VS. Chicago’s 28th ranked passing defense. The Texans are also 5 – 2 at home while the Bears are 3 – 4 on the road; with 2 of those 3 wins against Detroit and St. Louis. Everything points to Houston here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston

Tennessee (-3.0) @ Indianapolis (+3.0)
One of those games that’s impossible to cap, considering the fact that neither team has anything to play for, so it comes down to coaching philosophies at this point. I’ll take the Titans simply for what will eventually be the QB match-up; Vince Young VS. Jim Sorgi. Young will be eager to prove that he is ready and willing to re-take the starting job next year (or in the playoffs if need be)… Sorgi will be… well… Sorgi.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee

New York Giants (+7.0) @ Minnesota (-7.0)
One of the tougher games to figure out this week. Tom Coughlin is a big proponent of playing all of your starters and going into the playoffs with momentum, but I don’t believe for a second that Brandon Jacobs is actually going to get much more than 5 carries in this game. I’m all for keeping the momentum, but not giving your bruised up team a chance to rest when you’ve earned home field throughout is nothing short of stupid. But even with my disbelief, I’m still going to take the touchdown worth of points here. A lot like bottom-feeder teams can play fun and play loose against teams that NEED wins, why shouldn’t backups for the Giants be doing the same? Every back-up player wants to prove to the coach that they are ready to go in case of injury, and what better chance to do it in a game like this? Besides that, the way these two teams are built, there will be lots of running and lots of clock being eaten. Even with resting starters, I think the Giants +7.0 isn’t a bad idea. And if Coughlin really is crazy enough to keep his starters in there the whole game? Even better.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *New York Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Minnesota

Carolina (-3.0) @ New Orleans (+3.0)
Division rival home underdog, and they have the chance to spoil Carolina’s playoffs (they’d still go, but would have to start on the road instead of at home fresh off of a bye). This is also likely the last game for fan favorite Deuce McAllister in a Saints jersey, and there is an off chance that Brees could set the all time passing yards single-season record if he goes over 400 yards (unlikely, but he has done it twice this year). New Orleans has plenty of reason to want to finish the season with a win here, and against a tense Carolina, I think they pull it off.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*New Orleans

Detroit (+10.5) @ Green Bay (-10.5)
So this is it, the unthinkable 0 – 16 season is a mere 60 minutes away. Will Green Bay win? Yes, I’m pretty sure they will. Will they cover this spread? Fairly likely. But no matter how awful the Lions may be, why would I want to lay 10.5 points on a 5 – 10 team that has lost 5 straight and 7 of their last 8 that is playing against a team that will be putting every ounce of energy they have on the line in this one? I really don’t want to take the Lions, but they make a lot more sense to me then the Packers do here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

Seattle (+6.0) @ Arizona (-6.0)
Two weeks ago, Arizona had nothing to play for since they’d already clinched the division, and they got destroyed by the Vikings at home. Last week, still with nothing to play for, they went into snowy New England and got absolutely manhandled again. This week, they DO have something to play for; momentum. A loss in this game, and the might as well not even show up next week in the playoffs. Even a close game here would just be a terrible skid to end the season. This team needs a pick me up game really bad, and at home against Seattle is the perfect match up. They need to win this one big to feel anything resembling confidence heading into the playoffs.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona

Dallas (+1.0) @ Philadelphia (-1.0)
This should be a great game, especially if the last time these teams met up is any indication. This game has me torn, because Dallas’s defense is playing much better football then they were back then; but back then, Romo was healthy and there was a lot less drama in Dallas. I don’t believe for a second that Romo is 100%, and I think he’ll need to be to go into Philadelphia and beat the Eagles. The crowd should be rocking, McNabb and Westbrook should bounce back after last week’s upset loss to Washington; Dallas is capable of winning this game, but I think Philadelphia is the right side to be on this Sunday.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

Miami (+2.5) @ New York Jets (-2.5)
I really hate taking the Jets here. Miami has put together such a great season, and they deserve to go to the playoffs. Seeing pro-bowl snub Chad Pennington beat his former team and over-rated reeling Brett Favre would just be priceless, and make for a great story. I just have this incredibly strong gut feeling that the Jets come out on top here; if recent form is any indication, this shouldn’t be the case, but I just see the Jets finally putting a good game together at home this week. I’m sorry I can’t describe it with stats or anything, I just have an overwhelming feeling that the Jets win here; and as much as I want Miami to win, I’d be going against my better judgement if I took them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New York Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Jets

Washington (+3.0) @ San Francisco (-3.0)
I think this game is indeed San Francisco’s for the taking. Washington’s Super Bowl was played last week, when they upset the Eagles and made their potential trip to the playoffs that much more difficult. Traveling to San Francisco now, there really isn’t any reason to get up for this game. San Francisco meanwhile has a winning attitude engrained in them with Mike Singletary at the helm, and finishing the season with wins in 4 of their last 5 would be a huge step in the right direction for next season. They should get it done Sunday against the checked-out Redskins.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco

Jacksonville (+12.5) @ Baltimore (-12.5)
Team needs a win VS. terrible team. This has to be a broken record by now, doesn’t it? I’m sorry to not provide better information and a thoughtful write-up on this game, but it all comes back to the same basic philosophy that teams that need wins will be tight and not play their best games in games that they KNOW they should win against lousy opponents. It brings me no joy to pick against the Ravens, but I can’t make an exception for them; a rule is a rule.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

Denver (+8.0) @ San Diego (-8.0)
San Diego is so damn annoying to cap, because their win margins are so bizarre. 19, 10, 20, 1, 27, 1, 17. Throw out the two 1’s (both Kansas City), and San Diego either wins big or loses. I think they are going to win this game, but I also think 8 points is blown out of proportion; EVERYONE has been penciling San Diego in as the AFC West winners since day one, and now that all this has transpired, EVERYONE is on San Diego to win this game. But they are still just a 7 – 8 team, with 4 of those wins against Oakland and Kansas City. Do they really deserve to be an 8 point favorite here? I say no, but if they follow their season trend, they’ll win by double digits anyway. Please save yourself and stay far, far away from this game. I sadly must pick something, and I’ll go with my first instinct and take Denver and the points. Maybe San Diego can win by something normal like 3, 4, or 7 for a change this week?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

EVERY BOWL GAME 08 – 09
Season: 3 – 4 – 0 (.429)

I’ll be sending out a separate email with my college picks tomorrow morning. There are 22 bowl games this week, and if I write up each one here, this email will be about 40 pages long.

As a refresher, tonight’s game;

Motor City Bowl
Florida Atlantic (+6.0) vs. Central Michigan (-6.0)
Central Michigan had put a nice season together until they lost their last two games, including a very ugly loss to Eastern Michigan. Florida Atlantic was a disappointment this season too, as they were the odds-on favorites to win the Sun Belt Conference and they just couldn’t put it all together. People are taking FAU and the points here due to Central Michigan’s lousy finish and the fact that FAU seemingly “put it together” in the second half of the season, but did they really? After winning only one of their first 5 games, they won 4 straight; Barely scratching by Western Kentucky (2 – 10) and Louisiana-Monroe (4 – 8), on the road, and then beating North Texas (1 – 11) and UL Lafayette (6 – 6) at home. Sorry I’m not super impressed. They barely beat Florida International (5 – 7) at home to finish out the year. Did they “turn it around”, or just face a bunch of beatable teams? Florida Atlantic didn’t beat a team with a record over .500 this year, and I don’t think they’ll start now, especially in a virtual home game for Central Michigan at Ford Field.
THE PICK: Central Michigan (-6.0)

Have a great weekend and good luck everybody!
————————————————————
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NFL Football | Newsletter

2008 Dave’s Dime Week 16

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By Dave Consolazio, December 19, 2008 10:00 am

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”
www.davesdime.com

THE PICK

*Before reading this, just remember that there are no locks in sports, and anything can happen on any given day. Don’t go blindly betting your bankroll on this game just because I love it.*

Indianapolis (-6.0) @ Jacksonville (+6.0)
Wow. Wow. Wow. I’m just in complete awe of this game. This is a philosophy pick dream. You really can’t draw it up any better than this one. Keep in mind that any game that meets any of the following criteria, just a single one, is a game I’d likely take as a philosophy pick. But this gem has plenty more than just one:

1. HEAVY ONE-SIDED ACTION – 85% of the public is on Indianapolis with the spread, 86% are on them ML.
2. REVERSE LINE MOVEMENT – Despite massive action on Indianapolis, the line has moved from -6.5 to -6.0, inviting even more action on Indianapolis.
3. TWO STRAIGHT 30+ POINT WINS – If a team has won two straight games scoring 30 points or more, they often have offensive let downs as it is hard to be that in sync and productive in the NFL week in and week out.
4. TEAM THAT NEEDS A WIN VS. LOUSY TEAM – Learn anything from last week? Every season, the last few weeks, hopeless underdogs play carefree and are very dangerous in spoiler roles against opponents who need wins that have all the pressure on them.
5. DIVISIONAL HOME UNDERDOG LATE IN SEASON – Similar to above, these games are even more ugly and upset prone when the lousy team with nothing to lose happens to be playing a division rival at home.

There will be a very high number of philosophy picks this week, but none will be as beautiful as this one. If you are an outside the box philosophy thinker like myself, you should be salivating at this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Jacksonville

This weekend’s NFL picks and this week’s college bowl picks will be out Friday!

Good Luck!

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”
www.davesdime.com

THE INTRO

Well its tough to find a much more brutal way to lose money than that Jaguars loss last night.

But it still illustrates a point that you will see is very prevalent as the season comes to a close; teams that have nothing left to play for often give teams that have everything left to play for huge fits.

There will be a lot of philosophy picks this week, because while everyone else will be betting these teams because they “need wins and the other team doesn’t care”, I’ll be picking against them.

Last week we saw teams with nothing left to play for go 6 – 2 against the spread against teams fighting for something.

Thursday night, we saw the Jags winning 24 – 14 at the end of 3, and it took a minor miracle for the Colts to cover the spread. Not every team will get so lucky, and not every team has Peyton Manning.

Embrace the chaos. This is what makes the NFL so fun.

And for you college fans, I have this week’s bowl games covered in this newsletter as well.

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 6 – 8 – 2 (.429)
Without the spread: 12 – 4 – 0 (.750)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 1 – 0 – 0 (1.000)

Season

With the spread: 114 – 104 – 6 (.523)
Without the spread: 143 – 80 – 1 (.641)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 18 – 6 – 0 (.750)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

THURSDAY

Indianapolis (-6.0) @ Jacksonville (+6.0)

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Jacksonville (Loss)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Jacksonville (Loss)

SATURDAY

Baltimore (+4.0) @ Dallas (-4.0)
This is a tough game to call, as Dallas has seemingly found a groove and will be very difficult to beat, especially at home. But I don’t think Baltimore should be thrown out due to last week; they just ran into the league’s toughest defense. Dallas has been picking it up on defense, but they are still nowhere near as stingy as Pittsburgh, and Baltimore should be able to score on them. Baltimore’s defense is still as stout and scary as ever, even if they did fold on the last drive of the Steelers game. I think asking Dallas to win this game by more than 4 is asking a lot; I can see either Baltimore winning this game outright, or Dallas winning on a late FG or go ahead TD. I don’t really see a comfortable Dallas win here, so I’ll take the points.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

SUNDAY

Miami (-3.5) @ Kansas City (+3.5)
The first of many of the philosophy picks I talked about in the intro. Miami needs the win, Kansas City has nothing to play for and nothing to lose; I’ll take the loose team in the spoiler role.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Kansas City

New Orleans (-7.0) @ Detroit (+7.0)
As tempted as I am to take Detroit here trying to avoid the winless season, I’d also argue that New Orleans, now out of the playoff race, is almost equally motivated to not being the first team to lose to these guys. Indoors, on turf, the Saints should be able to run their offense as they please and cover this spread.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

Cincinnati (+3.0) @ Cleveland (-3.0)
After watching Ken Dorsey play football, its pretty clear to me that the Cleveland Browns offense is done for the year. Not that Ryan Fitzpatrick is much better, but the Bengals are coming off of an upset win over Washington and I believe they have what it takes to build on that win and hand their rivals a loss this Sunday.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Cincinnati

San Diego (+3.5) @ Tampa Bay (-3.5)
This philosophy pick is another tailor made one, much like the ill-fated Jacksonville game was Thursday night. Everybody is betting on Tampa Bay here, as San Diego has been a big disappointment all year. Tampa Bay is 6 – 0 at home, San Diego is 0 – 3 against NFC South opponents, all reasons why the public is pounding Tampa Bay. But you know one of my favorite philosophy picks is betting against a team that has played in 3 straight divisional games; and Tampa Bay has done just that, playing three tough division games back to back to back against New Orleans, Carolina, and Atlanta. The Bucs should be pretty bruised up after that stretch, especially this late in the season. They are ripe for an upset, and I think San Diego gets it here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*San Diego

Pittsburgh (-2.0) @ Tennessee (+2.0)

Another game simply too tough to call. Two excellent defenses, playing for home field advantage, should be a very gritty football game. I’m going to take the Steelers, simply because you can not move the football on the ground against them, and QB VS. QB, they definitely have the edge.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

San Francisco (-5.0) @ St. Louis (+5.0)

As a general rule, I like to bet home underdogs in division rivals this late in the season… but two teams completely out of it, this game comes down to nothing more than pride. And if the second half of the season is any indication, San Francisco has got a lot more of it. Besides, I’ve got enough philosophy picks this week!
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco

Arizona (+7.5) @ New England (-7.5)

7.5 seems like a lot of points, but I really can’t bring myself to take Arizona. Heading up to the bitter cokl that is way out of their element, it will be very easy as the game wears on for them to say to themselves “We are already in the playoffs, who needs this?” and continue to get pounded by a team that is playing for their playoff lives. They don’t meet the philosophy criteria because Arizona is NOT a lowly opponent.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

Buffalo (+7.0) @ Denver (-7.0)

Lowly opponent with nothing left to play for versus team that desperately needs this win. Get used to this recipe. As Buffalo showed us against the Jets last week, they aren’t just going to roll over; they have a little fight left in the tank. As a plus side of being on the Bills, if Tampa Bay does beat San Diego, Denver will see this and know they have their playoff spot wrapped up, and they can rest this week. If San Diego wins, they will be that much more under pressure and prone to make mistakes.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver

New York Jets (-4.5) @ Seattle (+4.5)
I don’t even have to waste my time with a write up on this one, do I? Same story as the others, helped by the fact that the Jets have been slumping big time, and Seattle has perennially been a great home team. Also, the Jets have already lost when traveling out west to San Diego, Oakland, and San Francisco; would them struggling in this game really be a huge shocker?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Jets

Houston (-7.0) @ Oakland (+7.0)

Oakland has, unfortunately for me, mailed this season in. Houston, meanwhile, has been surging. The philosophy part of me says okay, Houston just beat Tennessee in an emotional game, they are due for a big letdown… and Oakland was just crushed last week in embarrassing fashion, they will be out for payback this week… but honestly, how many times can I make compelling arguments for the Raiders only for them to go out and lose by 20+ every week? I just can’t do it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston

Philadelphia (-5.0) @ Washington (+5.0)

Taking the road less traveled isn’t always fun. Trying to figure out in your mind how a team that has been cruising along as well as the Eagles have is going to have trouble with a team like Washington (who just lost to Cinci last week) is awfully tough. Actually picking the Redskins? Even tougher. But this stadium will be rocking with the chance to eliminate their hated rivals from playoff contention. Especially after their loss last week, Washington should put together one of the best games of their season next week; and it should be enough to cover.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

Atlanta (+3.0) @ Minnesota (-3.0)

Tough game between two hungry teams. I’m going to take the Vikings though; they are seemingly on a mission, Tavaris Jackson looked good last week, and the team seems to be clicking on both sides of the ball. In Atlanta I might go the other way, but this city is hungry for the playoffs and the building should be rocking pretty hard. I think Minnesota will find a way to come out on top in this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Minnesota

Carolina (+3.0) @ New York Giants (-3.0)
The Giants are beat up and broken, as I knew they would be eventually after the daunting schedule they have faced. Without Brandon Jacobs, they just aren’t the same dominant team. Even with his likely return Sunday, he will be nowhere close to 100%. Like Tampa Bay, the Giants have played in 3 straight division rivalry games and are now favored, a spot that I instantly bet against. It rings even truer in a division like the NFC East, which is arguable the most physical in football. I don’t think the Giants will have their best effort in them Sunday, and Carolina has the capability to capitalize on it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Carolina

MONDAY

Green Bay (+4.0) @ Chicago (-4.0)
I suppose this game could arguably meet the same criteria that led me to take Jacksonville, Kansas City, Buffalo, and Seattle, as Green Bay is done for and the Bears are fighting for their playoff lives. But in the games mentioned, all but Buffalo were at home, which plays a huge part in what makes them so tempting. And Buffalo is getting a touchdown. Green Bay at only +4.0 here just isn’t tempting enough to take. This may come back to haunt me, but I believe Chicago matches up well against Green Bay, and they should win this game and cover the spread.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago

Hope you like your upsets!

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

EVERY BOWL GAME 08 – 09
Season: 0 – 0 – 0 (.000)

EagleBank Bowl
Navy (+3.0) vs. Wake Forest (-3.0)
Navy is a tough team to cap, as it really just comes down to how well they execute. If they run the ball as effectively as they are capable of and play well on defense, they are a tough team for anyone to beat. Two straight shutout victories to close out the season can vouch for that. But I think the strong finish made their number a little too low here; Wake has a great defense and a strong enough passing game to score on Navy. When these two teams faced during the regular season, Navy won by 7. In that game, Riley Skinner threw 4 interceptions. It took a particularly miserable game by Wake for Navy to win; I expect Skinner to be a lot smarter and a lot more precise this time around, and exact revenge for the regular season loss.
THE PICK: Wake Forest (-3.0)

New Mexico Bowl
Fresno State (-3.0) vs. Colorado State (+3.0)
Many times in bowl season, it just comes down to who wants it more, and I believe that team is going to be Colorado State. Fresno State came into this year off of a 9 win season (including a bowl win over Georgia Tech) and had aspirations of being a BCS buster type of team and competing for the WAC title. Instead, they floundered all season, especially on defense. This has been a disappointing year and this is a disappointing bowl berth. Colorado State meanwhile hasn’t been bowling since 3 years ago, and will be thrilled at this opportunity to play some post season football. Fresno State was largely overrated all year, and I think they are in this spot, too.
THE PICK: Colorado State (+3.0)

magicJack St. Petersburg Bowl
Memphis (+11.5) vs. South Florida (-11.5)
If you followed my college football season, you know that South Florida is my Achilles Heel. I just can’t figure this team out to save my life. As a general rule though, teams playing at home for bowl games tend to play very well, which works in South Florida’s favor. They are also a significantly better team on paper than Memphis, and Memphis will be starting their 3rd string QB. IF South Florida can put together 4 solid quarters there really isn’t any reason they can’t cover here, but you just never know the effort you are going to get out of them.
THE PICK: South Florida (-11.5)

Pioneer Las Vegas Bowl
BYU (+3.0) vs. Arizona (-3.0)
Arizona is one of the most overrated teams in college football. Yes, they are a decent football team and are certainly capable of putting up points, but really, take a look over their schedule. Their wins came against Idaho (2 – 10), Toledo (3 – 9), UCLA (4 – 8), Washington (0 – 12), Cal (8- 4), Washington State (2 – 11), and Arizona State (5 – 7). Other then the Cal win, do any of these wins impress you at all? In a halfway decent conference, there is no way Arizona is even bowl eligible. BYU meanwhile lost only to two defensive powerhouses in TCU and Utah, and looked great otherwise. BYU has played will in these Las Vegas Bowls over the last few years, and quite frankly I think they are the better team here.
THE PICK: BYU (+3.0)

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Troy (-4.5) vs. Southern Miss (+4.5)
This game is Troy’s for the taking. Troy get up big for big games, as they always seem to play better when they are televised or playing against a top notch opponent. What better opportunity to play big than in a bowl game? Last season I argued adamantly that they were snubbed badly by not getting invited to go to a bowl even though they were bowl eligible at 8 – 4 with 3 of their losses to SEC teams! This year they do get the chance to go bowling, and I expect them to make the most of it with a big win.
THE PICK: Troy (-4.5)

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
TCU (-2.5) vs. Boise State (+2.5)
This should be a fantastic game, easily the best of the first week of bowl season. You have a well rounded undefeated Boise State team facing a tough defensive team in TCU. TCU had only two losses on the season, a close one against undefeated Utah and a loss against Oklahoma both on the road. They did hold that vaunted Sooners offense to 35, which was very impressive. I believe TCU is the pick here; I think they are a little grittier and a little tougher, and they can wear a team like Boise State down as the game goes on. I was surprised to see TCU as the favorite, was hoping the undefeated season made bettors take Boise State here; but even minus a couple points, TCU is the side I want to be on.
THE PICK: TCU (-2.5)

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl
Notre Dame (-1.5) vs Hawaii (+1.5)
This game has a lot of philosophy aspects to it. First of all, it is a home game for Hawaii, which bodes well generally in bowl games as I mentioned in the South Florida write up. Secondly, even though Notre Dame this year might be happy to go to any bowl, a prestigious program like Notre Dame often does have trouble getting up for a game like this; a meaningless first week bowl game. Lastly, Hawaii got destroyed in their last bowl game, ending the season on a bad note and sending thousand’s of fans that spent good money on tickets and travel home miserable. At home for this bowl game, they have a chance to make it up to all those fans they disappointed last year, and I think they will do just that.
THE PICK: Hawaii (+1.5)

NFL Football | Newsletter

2008 Dave’s Dime Week 15

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By Dave Consolazio, December 12, 2008 10:00 am

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”
www.davesdime.com

THE INTRO

(Sorry it took a bit longer than usual to get this out… I wanted to make sure everything was in order this week)

.500

But what a difference a week makes.

Last week, I was complaining about how my hard work didn’t pay off, and it resulted in a lousy 8 – 8.

This week, I am celebrating 8 – 8, because I didn’t come close to deserving it.

Due to some personal happenings last week, I rushed the capping process a bit last week, and made a few critical errors.

Miami @ Buffalo (Pick’em)
Played in TORONTO, INDOORS. Not Buffalo outdoors. Miami should have been the pick

Cleveland (+14.0) @ Tennessee (-14.0)
With Ken Dorsey in at QB, I should have known there would be no offense. I picked the Browns for the sake of picking an underdog, not for smart reasons.

Philadelphia (+7.0) @ New York Giants (-7.0)
I KNEW the Eagles were the pick here, I even said so in my write up, but I made the age-old mistake of thinking some teans are unbeatable

New England (-4.5) @ Seattle (+4.5)
Since when do I pass on philosophy picks, no matter how unappealing it looks?

4 mistakes, and the Gambling Gods showed no mercy, making all 4 losses. Somehow, I managed to go 8 – 4 on the rest of the card to not make the week a total embarrassment.

I admit my mistakes, and I apologize for the lapses in judgement last week.

Two Sundays ago, .500 was a disappointment. Last Sunday, .500 is a relief.

What will this Sunday bring?

Also, when you are done reading this, check out my video on How Philosophy Picks Work: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0horQ0eLmDw

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 8 – 8 – 0 (.500)
Without the spread: 12 – 4 – 0 (.750)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 1 – 1 – 0 (.500)

Season

With the spread: 108 – 96 – 4 (.529)
Without the spread: 131 – 76 – 1 (.633)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 17 – 6 – 0 (.739)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD:

Minnesota (-9.5) @ Detroit (+9.5) W
Cincinnati (+13.5) @ Indianapolis (-13.5) W
Atlanta (+3.0) @ New Orleans (-3.0) W
New York Jets (-4.0) @ San Francisco (+4.0) W
Dallas (+3.0) @ Pittsburgh (-3.0) W
St. Louis (+14.0) @ Arizona (-14.0) W
Washington (+5.0) @ Baltimore (-5.0) W
Tampa Bay (+3.0) @ Carolina (-3.0) W

THE BAD:

Oakland (+9.5) @ San Diego (-9.5) L
Cleveland (+14.0) @ Tennessee (-14.0) L
Miami @ Buffalo (Pick’em) L

THE COULD HAVE GONE EITHER WAY/NOT MY WAY THIS WEEK:

Jacksonville (+6.5) @ Chicago (-6.5) L
Houston (+5.5) @ Green Bay (-5.5) L
New England (-4.5) @ Seattle (+4.5) L
Kansas City (+8.5) @ Denver (-8.5) L

THE “WHAT THE $%^@”?:

Where did the offense go?
Philadelphia (+7.0) @ New York Giants (-7.0) L

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

THURSDAY

New Orleans (+3.0) @ Chicago (-3.0)

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *New Orleans (Tie)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *New Orleans (Loss)

SUNDAY

Tampa Bay (+3.0) @ Atlanta (-3.0)
You know what? I’m finally going to take Atlanta. I believe Tampa Bay is the slightly better team, but Jeff Garcia is not 100% with a calf injury, and one of his assets is his ability to move out of the pocket to buy himself more time. Even if he does play, which he likely will, a calf injury will be a hindrance, and I can easily see it affecting his game. Atlanta has been excellent at home this year, losing only one game there, and all 4 of Tampa Bay’s losses have come on the road. If Atlanta is going to take the next step, this is a perfect place to start; and they have the talent to do it if they can play mistake free football this Sunday.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

Seattle (-2.5) @ St. Louis (+2.5)
I would be tempted into saying this is one of those “too good to be true” type picks, but then I remind myself that this really is just a match up of two terrible teams. A St. Louis win here really wouldn’t be all that stunning; Seattle’s defense has been abysmal all year, and the offense has been sporadic at best. That said, St. Louis is even worse on defense, and Seattle is finally healthy. This is the first game they’ve played against an opponent under .500 in 7 weeks. They should be able to run the ball with ease, and I think they can rise to the occasion and come out on top here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle

Buffalo (+7.5) @ New York Jets (-7.5)

Is this the week Buffalo comes back from the dead? Maybe, maybe not. But back at home against a team that hasn’t mustered up more than 3 points in 2 straight games, its about damn time the Jets got things back on track and crush an opponent. I don’t see them losing a 3rd straight game here, and while I could see it staying close, I just don’t think Buffalo is going to be able to put together enough offense to keep this one within double digits, and I don’t think the Jets offense is going to be stymied a 3rd straight week, either.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New York Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Jets

San Francisco (+6.5) @ Miami (-6.5)

While Mike Singletary’s methods aren’t exactly orthodox, its hard to argue with results. The man has his team playing tough, and coming off of two impressive wins @Buffalo and vs. the Jets. I think the 3rd leg of their tour of the AFC East ends with a loss, however. It is hard to gauge exactly how much of an effect travel has on players, but San Francisco played 3 straight games against division rivals, then traveled to Texas to play Dallas, out to the east coast to play the Bills in Buffalo, back to the west coast to play the Jets at home, and now they travel back to the east coast to play Miami. Miami, meanwhile, hasn’t traveled farther west than St. Louis in their last 3 games. Miami needs this game more, they are at home, they are starting to believe in their playoff chances, and their passing attack matches up well against San Francisco’s defense. Reality sets in for the 49ers this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Miami

San Diego (-5.5) @ Kansas City (+5.5)

Honestly, this game is one you should stay far away from. Both of these teams reek of inconsistency. San Diego looks like they are turning a corner one week, and the next they are losing must win games. Kansas City looks hopeless, and then gives opponents fits, albeit in losing efforts. So with no idea which version of which team is going to show up, how the hell do you cap this game? You just have to go with your gut I suppose; and my gut tells me San Diego wins this game by a TD or more. Lousy analysis? Trust me, I know. But this game is impossible.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

Green Bay (-2.0) @ Jacksonville (+2.0)

Fred Taylor out. Matt Jones out. Jerry Porter (even if he IS an underachiever this year) out. Jacksonville has lost 4 straight games by double digits. They’ve lost 6 of their last 7 games, with the only win coming over Detroit. They have had problems on and off the field all season long. Tons of key injuries on the lines and to some big name position players. They appear to have given up on the season. So how on earth are they only getting 2 points here? Yes, Green Bay has also fallen off in a major way, losing 5 of their last 6. But those 5 losses were @Tennessee, @Minnesota, @New Orleans, vs. Carolina, and vs. Houston; all good opponents, and only one of those losses was by more than 4 points. Even with all their struggles, Green Bay seems way too easy here, and 85% of bettors are betting Green Bay minus the points and 81% are betting them money line. I just NEED to go the other way.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Jacksonville

Washington (-7.0) @ Cincinnati (+7.0)

Cincinnati’s offense is tragically bad, and there isn’t any way to pick this team without holding your nose. But Washington is one of those teams that I don’t really feel comfortable giving up 7 points to ANY team with, especially on the road. Their offensive production over the last 8 games; 10, 7, 20 (Seattle), 10, 6, 25 (Detroit), 14, 17. And while there is no excuse for Cinci being outscored 69 – 6 in their last 2 games, those games were against two AFC powerhouses in Indianapolis and Baltimore. @Pittsburgh and the tie with Philly came before that. This team has faced a brutal schedule, and Washington is actually one of the easier games they’ve had in a while. If they can find their way into the endzone a few times at home, even by accident, I think they get the cover here; and I see this happening.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Washington

Tennessee (-3.0) @ Houston (+3.0)

You may not believe it, but I’m going with the Texans here. There is just a lot to like; as the Jets proved, the best way to beat the Titans is with a strong passing game, and the Texans certainly have that. The Titans also haven’t really been tested on the road this year. There is also the huge chance that they get caught looking ahead; with Pittsburgh and Indianapolis to close out the season, the Titans will have to decide who to rest, who to start, etc. and have a lot to think about in the coming weeks. This game sets up perfectly as a trap game, with Houston playing for a lot of pride lately trying to finish the season on a high note. I think they pull off the upset.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Houston

Detroit (+17.0) @ Indianapolis (-17.0)

With Baltimore and the entire AFC East breathing down the Colts neck in the AFC wild card race, this team is extremely motivated to keep winning and keep pounding opponents to stay in their groove. They can’t afford to take anyone lightly, even Detroit. An emotionally draining loss last week and now the daunting task of going into Indianapolis, I don’t see Detroit having anything in the tank here. I hate to give another professional team a college football amount of points, but I’m NOT taking Detroit just for the sake of taking them this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

Minnesota (+3.0) @ Arizona (-3.0)

While the stats show a game that Arizona passes at will and overpowers a mediocre secondary at home, I’m going to ignore the stats on this one. Sometimes it just comes down to who wants it more. Minnesota has overcome early season struggles and season long quarterback issues to take the lead in their division, which they are hanging on to by only a half game after Chicago’s win Thursday night, and they are fighting for their playoff lives. Arizona, meanwhile, has already wrapped up their division. And while Arizona may have the best WR core in the league, who have they really beaten this year? San Fran twice, St. Louis twice, Seattle, and Buffalo. Only two teams over .500; Miami (back in week 2 before they established the wildcat) and a fluky win over Dallas. Minnesota is going to be a tough game, and with a we’re-already-in-the-playoffs voice in the back of their heads, it might just be a loss.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Minnesota

New England (-7.0) @ Oakland (+7.0)

Another impossible one to predict. I always take flack for picking the Raiders “because they are my favorite team”. Trust me on this; BECAUSE they are my favorite team, I happen to know just how bad they are as well if not better than anyone. I don’t select them because they are my team, I select them because I think they are the right pick. And, sadly, I believe that is true again this week. New England tends to keep games closer than they should be; they only have 3 double digit wins this year, 1 on the road. The defense is in really bad shape, and while the Raiders offense is among the league’s worst, if Fargas and McFadden can establish the rushing attack, they might be able to put up some points. Perhaps most pertinently, Matt Cassell’s father just passed away, and he spent a bit of time away from the team this week to be with his family. He will start Sunday, but it is hard to believe he will be 100% focused on football in a hostile environment after such an emotional week. The Raiders defense can be stingy at times, and if Cassells makes bad decisions out there, he could pay for them. I think this will be a low scoring game, and Oakland will cover the 7 points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

Denver (+7.5) @ Carolina (-7.5)

I do believe that Carolina is the better team, but I also believe this number is a bit swelled due to Carolina’s dominant performance over Tampa Bay last week. Rushing for just about 300 yards on a tough Tampa Bay defense, what will they do against Denver’s 26th ranked rushing defense? I can understand that logic, but I’d also point out that Denver is playing some good football, and can pass on just about anyone when they are clicking. I do think that Carolina will win, and a cover wouldn’t even surprise me, but I believe the value in this game is on Denver getting over a TD.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina

Pittsburgh (+2.0) @ Baltimore (-2.0)

This should be an awesome game. Two extremely stingy defenses. I do have to go with Baltimore here though; they have shown a lot more aptitude on offense, and they do have home field advantage in this one. These are arguably the two teams to beat in the AFC this year, and this is definitely an exciting playoff preview.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

New York Giants (+3.0) @ Dallas (-3.0)
Okay, I know Jacobs isn’t starting. But after last week’s dismal performance on offense, I have to believe the Giants will bounce back with a good effort this week. And with Marion Barber’s toe injury and no Felix Jones to back him up, the Cowboys will be a one dimensional team, and I believe the Giants can exploit that and pick up the win here. They don’t want to start a skid to end their season. Plus with all the soap opera drama in Dallas, its hard to pick them to win big games like this one.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *New York Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *New York Giants

MONDAY

Cleveland (+14.0) @ Philadelphia (-14.0)
2 touchdowns on Monday night is an embarrassing spread. But can you really take the Browns here? Philadelphia is looking sharp again, dominating Arizona and then surprisingly shutting down the Giants in New York. Now they face a team that is lost on offense with Ken Dorsey as their starter. Even if the Browns do play for pride out there, is it going to matter? I don’t see them putting up more than 10 points, and I do see Philly putting up 28+.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 64 – 63 – 1 (.504)

No games this week.

NFL Football | Newsletter

Why Philosophy Picks Work

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By Dave Consolazio, December 11, 2008 6:28 pm

While my career record in NFL picks against the spread hovers around 50%, I have had great success with my “philosophy picks” over the last few years, winning at around 60% of the time and picking some pretty big upsets in the process.

This video is a look into some of the elements that go into what makes a game a “philosophy pick”, and why I believe they tend to work.

NFL Football | Video

2008 Dave’s Dime Week 14

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By Dave Consolazio, December 5, 2008 10:00 am

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”
www.davesdime.com

THE INTRO

.500

4 – 4 college, 8 – 8 pro, 12 – 12 overall.

No better feeling in the world then spending hours and hours studying numbers and philosophies and whatever else to find that a few simple coin flips could have done the job just as efficiently as you did.

Yes, I’m being sarcastic, but I’ll take .500 over a losing record any day. Tough, thankless world this football capping can be sometimes.

I’ll try to get back to winning this week (though I didn’t do myself any favors picking Oakland Thursday night), but things get trickier as the season winds down.

When you are done here, watch my new episode of Spare Change on the Oklahoma/Texas debate here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=70fnT1-pPBw

Lets get to it!

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 8 – 8 – 0 (.500)
Without the spread: 8 – 8 – 0 (.500)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 3 – 0 – 0 (1.000)

Season

With the spread: 100 – 88 – 3 (.532)
Without the spread: 119 – 72 – 1 (.623)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 16 – 5 – 0 (.762)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD:

Tennessee (-11.0) @ Detroit (+11.0) W
Arizona (+3.0) @ Philadelphia (-3.0) W
Indianapolis (-4.5) @ Cleveland (+4.5) W
Baltimore (-7.0) @ Cincinnati (+7.0) W
Denver (+7.5) @ New York Jets (-7.5) W
Miami (-9.0) @ St. Louis (+9.0) W
Pittsburgh (+1.0) @ New England (-1.0) W
Jacksonville (+3.0) @ Houston (-3.0) W

THE BAD:

Seattle (+12.0) @ Dallas (-12.0) L
New York Giants (-3.5) @ Washington (+3.5) L
Chicago (+3.5) @ Minnesota (-3.5) L

THE COULD HAVE GONE EITHER WAY/NOT MY WAY THIS WEEK:

Carolina (+3.0) @ Green Bay (-3.0) L
New Orleans (+4.0) @ Tampa Bay (-4.0) L
Kansas City (+3.0) @ Oakland (-3.0) L

THE “WHAT THE $%^@”?:

Two teams desperately in need of wins at home…
San Francisco (+6.5) @ Buffalo (-6.5) L
Atlanta (+4.0) @ San Diego (-4.0) L

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

I just can’t find any upsets this week, even though I know they will occur. Be careful this week.

THURSDAY

Oakland (+9.5) @ San Diego (-9.5)

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Oakland (Loss)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego (Win)

SUNDAY

Cleveland (+14.0) @ Tennessee (-14.0)
One of the few games on the board this week that I feel the dog is getting too many points. With Ken Dorsey in at QB for the Browns, it isn’t hard to believe that the Titans could win this one handily. The Browns’ defense has been stout, however, allowing only 16 points to Houston and 3 to Indianapolis (the touchdown was a fumble returned for a TD). Cleveland hasn’t lost by more than 10 in 9 straight games. If the defense continues to play well, they are capable of keeping this game close, and two TDs seems excessive to me.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee

Jacksonville (+6.5) @ Chicago (-6.5)
Look closely at Chicago’s season. At 6 – 6 they appear to be a decent team, but when you look at their wins, you see 2 wins over Detroit and 1 over St. Louis. Close wins over Philly and Minnesota, and you see that their only convincing win of the year came back in week 1 over Indianapolis. Jacksonville has been bad all year, and certainly falls under the category of teams that Chicago can beat. But I feel that 6.5 points is too many here, based on how the public has given up on Jacksonville and still overrates the Bears. My gut tells me Jacksonville is going to win this game outright. Someone has to get upset this week, don’t they?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Jacksonville

Minnesota (-9.5) @ Detroit (+9.5)
Funny I mentioned I couldn’t find any underdogs this week, and I start with three straight. But it’ll be almost all favorites after this, trust me. Minnesota, like just about every other team in the league, is perfectly capable of beating Detroit by double digits, and its hard to pick otherwise. But lets just say you are a Detroit Lion, 4 games away from becoming an 0 – 16 NFL football team, a historic embarrassment. You will do everything in your power to make sure that doesn’t happen. But you look at the schedule and see @Indianapolis, New Orleans, and @Green Bay coming up. No way in hell you are going into Indianapolis and beating them, and you think you have any chance of keeping up with Drew Brees? And the last game of the season @Lambeau? THIS IS IT, right here. You can beat Gus Frerotte. The home crowd behind you. This is Detroit’s best chance to win a game this year, and I expect them to lay it all on the line in this game. Will they win? Probably not. But if they were ever going to keep a game close, this is the one to do it in.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Minnesota

Houston (+5.5) @ Green Bay (-5.5)

You rarely see a philosophy pick for a favorite, especially a big one. But on one side you have Houston coming off of a win over a division rival on Monday night football now playing a road game against an out of conference opponent; pretty clear cut letdown situation. On the flip side, you have a Green Bay team that just lost as a home favorite and is now playing another home game that they need to redeem themselves in. Letdown VS. Rebound, doesn’t get a whole lot better.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^Green Bay

Cincinnati (+13.5) @ Indianapolis (-13.5)
I’m going to keep this simple. Indianapolis has 5 straight wins, by win margins of 3, 4, 6, 3, and 4. I know some people get mad when I use the word “due”, but I’m sorry, this team is DUE for an offensive blowout. I think they get the perfect team to get one against this week at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

Atlanta (+3.0) @ New Orleans (-3.0)

Why do I pick against Atlanta every week? I think they are a great team, Matt Ryan and Michael Turner are both excellent. Yet every single week I pick against them, and like clockwork they beat me every week. Well, once again, I’m going against them. New Orleans is lethal at home and Drew Brees is having an inhuman season. The Saints high octane offense was slowed down last week against Tampa Bay (one of the best defenses in the game), and while Atlanta’s overall defense isn’t too shabby, their 22nd ranked passing defense is a big mismatch against New Orleans. I like the Saints to outshoot the Falcons here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

Philadelphia (+7.0) @ New York Giants (-7.0)
The Giants just aren’t human. You can’t cap them like a human team. 6 straight games against tough and/or division opponents, no problem. I really want to take the points here, especially with the extra rest Philly got since they played last Thursday, but I can’t. Amazing this team lost to Cleveland; they could be chasing history right now.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New York Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Giants

New England (-4.5) @ Seattle (+4.5)
Perfect philosophy pick situation, right? Seattle only getting 4.5 points? Well, Seattle seems to be immune to philosophy picks. 16 – 5 overall, and Seattle happens to be 0 – 2. Not to mention all the times I’ve given them the benefit of the doubt that they weren’t a philosophy pick that they’ve failed. Here’s the truth; they are miserable on defense, and hopelessly out of sync on offense. Ready for a mind blowing stat? New England has only lost in back to back games ONCE since 2003. You think Seattle will be the team to make it happen again? Good luck.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

New York Jets (-4.0) @ San Francisco (+4.0)

Speaking of philosophy picks, this one pains me quite a bit. The Jets fell to Denver last week as I predicted, but that was in large part to being out shot in the passing game. I don’t really see San Francisco having the firepower to keep up. And shouldn’t the Jets be extra focused after getting a wake-up call last week? -4.0 makes no sense, and it has resulted in EVERYONE betting on the Jets this week. Everyone. And the reasoning is the same across the board; “They lost last week, they won’t let it happen again, they will crush a much weaker San Francisco team”. I can’t disagree, but bookmakers knew this is how people would think and could have easily made Jets -7.0 and still got great action. They like San Fran here. Build off the Buffalo win with added confidence while the Jets suffer a hangover from the loss? Jets can’t travel west (losses to Oakland and San Diego already)? Whatever. At 75% winning percentage, I just hold my nose and dive in.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*San Francisco

Kansas City (+8.5) @ Denver (-8.5)
This one could go either way, but I don’t see Denver letting up here. A win here deals a crippling blow to the Chargers’ playoff chances. Denver would love to lock this division up before week 17 to make sure their game in San Diego is a meaningless one. In order to make that much more likely, they are going to need a win here. Tack on the added incentive of getting revenge on Kansas City for upsetting them earlier this season, and I believe Denver is the right side in this game, even giving up so many points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver

Miami @ Buffalo (Pick’em)
It pains me to take Buffalo here, as Miami is the better team without a doubt in my mind. But Buffalo losing to a big underdog last week at home now playing at home again is scary, Miami needing this game more and being on the road against a division rival is scary, the way Miami has kept games close against awful teams (4 point win over StL, 2 point win over Oak, 2 point win over Sea) is scary, and a warm weather team heading up to a cold climate is scary. So unless you are a fan of horror movies, I’d say Miami is a little too scary to pick this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Buffalo

Dallas (+3.0) @ Pittsburgh (-3.0)
I could get into a long winded breakdown here, but I’ll keep this simple. Pittsburgh’s defense is GOOD. I mean very, very good. Best rushing defense in the league, best passing defense in the league, which not surprisingly results in the best total defense in the league. Dallas has a high powered offense. When high powered offense meets smash mouth defense, at smash mouth defense’s home no less, I’ll take the defensive team every single time.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

St. Louis (+14.0) @ Arizona (-14.0)
This spread should say it all, really. Arizona has lost two straight (last one a blowout loss to a struggling Philadelphia team), and the two wins before that were by only 6 points @ Seattle and 5 points vs. San Francisco. They haven’t been in blowout form in a month now. St. Louis had a great effort against Miami last week, losing only by 4. All of that information has been completely thrown out. And I can’t disagree with throwing it all out either; Arizona has one of the most ridiculous WR cores in the league, good for the 2nd best passing game in the league, and St. Louis’s 29th ranked total defense should get destroyed here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona

Washington (+5.0) @ Baltimore (-5.0)
Maybe I should be considering Washington here as a philosophy pick? No idea. Very early on this season I bought into this Baltimore team, and week in and week out they are one of my surest picks. The defense is as strong as ever, but they now have not only a decent offense, but a very good offense to go with it. The results have been amazing. In their last 7 games, Baltimore has lost to the Giants in New York, and beaten the other 6 teams they’ve played, all by double digits. They’ve given me no reason to stop believing in them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

MONDAY

Tampa Bay (+3.0) @ Carolina (-3.0)
In a game that should come down to field position and bounces, its impossible to say who will get the upper hand. Two very evenly-matched defense oriented teams, which way do you go? If you must make a pick, I think you have to go with the home team here; Carolina is undefeated at home, and all three of Tampa Bay’s losses have come on the road. Should be a great game to watch; Monday Night Football finally got one right.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 62 – 60 – 1 (.508)

Week 15 Video Here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8PYMzHQj9-0

Rutgers -10.0
Tulsa -13.0
Washington +35.5
USC/UCLA Under 48.0
Arizona State +11.5

NFL Football | Newsletter

Spare Change

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By Dave Consolazio, December 5, 2008 10:00 am

During the 2008 college football season, I came up with an idea for an interactive online sports debate show in which I would present an issue, give my opinion on it, and than leave it open to discussion.

It didn’t really take off like I had hoped, but there were some pretty decent debates in the comments section.

The project was put on the back burner when the NFL playoffs rolled around, and then I was hired by SBR, where I was paid to keep sports discussion on the site’s forum instead of on youtube.

Episode 1: Running Up the Score

Episode 2: USC and Florida Upsets

Episode 3: The Pittsburgh/San Diego Lateral Debacle

Episode 4: Oklahoma or Texas?

College Football, NFL Football | Video

Weekly College Football Picks 2008

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By Dave Consolazio, December 4, 2008 11:43 am

My second year of uploading college football picks on to youtube. I’ve moved out of the bedroom for this season (into the living room), learned a bit of video editing/lighting, and get a new webcam for Week 6. I somehow managed to end the season with six straight weeks without a winning record. Brutal.

Final 2008 Season Record Against the Spread: 64-63-1