Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

I’m running out of cute and creative ways to say that I suck, I hate losing, and this is brutal.

So… I suck, I hate losing, and this is brutal.

I’d be lying if I said the cross-country move (among being laid off, etc) wasn’t affecting me… but I don’t want to use it as an excuse.

What amuses me so much about the run I’m on is the sheer unlikeliness of it. I’ll be the first to admit that many of these games simply come down to 50/50’s that I don’t have a strong opinion on. 4-11-1 two weeks ago and then 4-12 this week? Who did I piss off bad enough to get this curse bestowed on me?

Even assuming I’m not even a 50/50 and I’m say a 45/55, I should still be able to get to oh say a 7-9 or 6-10 week, no? Not so much.

Oh well. For you optimists out there, I’m “due”. Every single non-philosophy game can’t continue to go against me for the rest of the season, can it?

I’ve never had a season with a losing record ATS. Will take a lot of work to keep that streak alive.

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 4 – 12 – 0 (.250)
Without the spread: 11 – 5 – 0 (.688)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 2 – 0 – 0 (1.000)

Season
With the spread: 89 – 101 – 2 (.468)
Without the spread: 131 – 61 – 0 (.682)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 12 – 5 – 0 (.706)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

New Orleans (-9.0) @ Washington (+9.0)
Denver (-6.0) @ Kansas City (+6.0)
San Francisco (-1.0) @ Seattle (+1.0)
Minnesota (-3.5) @ Arizona (+3.5)

THE BAD

N.Y. Jets (-3.0) @ Buffalo (+3.0)
Tampa Bay (+5.0) @ Carolina (-5.0)
St. Louis (+9.5) @ Chicago (-9.5)
Tennessee (+6.5) @ Indianapolis (-6.5)
Philadelphia (-5.0) @ Atlanta (+5.0)
Oakland (+14.5) @ Pittsburgh (-14.5)
Detroit (+13.0) @ Cincinnati (-13.0)
New England (-3.5) @ Miami (+3.5)
Houston (-2.5) @ Jacksonville (+2.5)
San Diego (-13.5) @ Cleveland (+13.5)
Dallas (-1.0) @ N.Y. Giants (+1.0)
Baltimore (+3.5) @ Green Bay (-3.5)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

Feeling pretty good about this week. Let’s get this thing turned around!

THURSDAY

Pittsburgh (-11.0) @ Cleveland (+11.0)
Sorry I didn’t get this out on Thursday, but for record keeping sake, I’ll be counting this as a win. As I told a few friends, no way you can give double digits on the road here against a division rival with the way the Steelers were playing. The outright loss was surprising, though.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cleveland (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh (LOSS)

SUNDAY

Green Bay (-4.0) @ Chicago (+4.0)
One look at this spread, and if you’ve been reading the Dime a while, you know what’s coming. Chicago is terrible, looking hopeless on offense even against a pitiful St. Louis team. Green Bay has been fantastic on both sides of the ball. Why isn’t this spread closer to 7? Vegas definitely wants you on Green Bay here, so as usual, I’ll go the other way.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Chicago

New Orleans (-10.0) @ Atlanta (+10.0)
Last week I expected New Orleans to have an off day. This week, I think they return to their dominating ways; Matt Ryan is a game-time decision for the Falcons, and even if he plays, he won’t be 100%. They just aren’t the same team without him at his best.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

Detroit (+14.0) @ Baltimore (-14.0)
Baltimore’s offense really hasn’t played well enough of late to warrant trusting them to cover a spread like this, but against Detroit? I think they are overdue for a strong game anyway.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

Denver (+6.5) @ Indianapolis (-6.5)
Denver has picked the pace back up, but they run into a well-oiled machine this week in Indy. I just can’t pick against Peyton at home in this spot.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

Seattle (+7.0) @ Houston (-7.0)
Houston has played three straight games against division rivals (four straight if you include pre-BYE), and now they are giving up 7 points? Hard to have much left in the tank with all those rivalry games; and Seattle isn’t that much worse than Houston, either. Love the points, love that the public loves Houston, just love love love.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Seattle

N.Y. Jets (-3.5) @ Tampa Bay (+3.5)
Tampa Bay is also coming off of three straight division rivalry games. We also get the Jets at a discounted price due to Sanchez’s injury. This isn’t quite a philosophy pick as TB isn’t favored, but it is still worth a good look.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: N.Y. Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: N.Y. Jets

Carolina (+13.0) @ New England (-13.0)
It may be hard to come to terms with the fact that New England has fallen off a bit, but giving up two TD’s worth of points on them? This may be the week they put it all back together, but Carolina scoring enough to get the cover seems more likely to me.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

Miami (+3.0) @ Jacksonville (-3.0)
A virtual coinflip in my eyes that should be a fairly high-scoring affair and will likely come down to the finish, I’ll take the points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Miami

Buffalo (-1.0) @ Kansas City (+1.0)
After getting routed at home last week, Kansas City gets a much more manageable game this week against Buffalo. The Bills are the better team, but I don’t trust them on the road against what should be a fired up Cheifs team.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Kansas City

Cincinnati (+6.5) @ Minnesota (-6.5)
As much as I respect Cincinnati and their defense, I expect Minnesota to have a bounce-back game this week after the ugly game against Arizona. Cinci hasn’t showed me enough on offense to make me think they can keep up if Minnesota gets into the high 20s in scoring as I expect them to.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Minnesota

St. Louis (+13.0) @ Tennessee (-13.0)
As nice as the Vince Young led turn around has been, the wins haven’t been in blowout fashion. 3 of the 4 wins before the Indy loss came by 7 points or less, and despite a 4-game losing streak, St. Louis hasn’t lost by more than 10 in any of them. All signs point to taking the points here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee

Washington (-1.0) @ Oakland (+1.0)
You all know how much I love Oakland and how thrilled I am when they show signs of life (Phi, Cin, Pit). But lets not overvalue that Steelers win; Pittsburgh is sinking and sinking FAST. The Cinci win was a perfect letdown situation. Quite simply, the Raiders are still a team with a lot of problems, and the Redskins have been playing better football than their record indicates. Lots of people loving the Raider upset this week… but I don’t think so.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Washington

San Diego (+3.5) @ Dallas (-3.5)
Not quite a philosophy pick, but with the way San Diego has been playing of late, I’m surprised to see them getting more than a field goal here. People seem to be jumping all over it, too. That was my initial reaction as well, but I’ll go against the grain and see why Vegas wants us on the Chargers instead of the Cowboys.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

Philadelphia (-1.0) @ N.Y. Giants (+1.0)
Another coinflip with plenty on the line for both teams. I like Philly’s defense just a little bit better at this point in time, so I’m going to gove them the nod in what should be a very entertaining game.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

MONDAY

Arizona (-3.5) @ San Francisco (+3.5)
Arizona showed us a lot last week in beating Minnesota, and I think they’ll have a tough time putting out another effort like that this week. San Francisco has been playing teams tough, and I think this week might be the week they pull off the win; or, at the very least, cover the spread.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *San Francisco

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

SEASON RECORD: 41 – 29 – 6 (.586)

*Bowl coverage coming soon*

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