Hey everyone! Just a quick prediction for tonight’s game, sorry it’s so close to game time, skipped my mind that I had to send this out Thursday!

Chicago (+3.5) @ San Francisco (-3.5)
These teams are actually quite evenly matched, making it tempting to take the points and the Bears here. But while it doesn’t qualify as a philosophy pick due to the fact that they are a favorite again this week, the emotional-factor logic dictates that coming off of a home loss as a favorite and playing again at home this week, a team will be especially motivated to redeem themselves in front of the home fans. I think they do so tonight and pick up the win by four or more.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco

Good Luck!

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Sometimes, it’s fun to have a newsletter that you get to send out every week to a bunch of people on a sport you think you know a little something about.

Other times, like the last few weeks, you wish you lived in some Amish Village in the middle of nowhere and had never heard of the internet.

As I watched late pick-6s and onside kicks go against me left and right last weekend, I was reminded that so much of this just comes down to the bounces. For that reason, I really shouldn’t let it frustrate me so much… but I still do. Losing sucks, and losing ALOT sucks worse.

Then again, I’ve never guaranteed any winners. Can’t. Unfortunately, I can’t actually go out there and strap on the pads and make any difference whatsoever.

All I can guarantee is that I’ll keep giving it a shot (and making a damn fool of myself) every week. That is, of course, until I find an Amish Village that is willing to accept me as one of their own.

Will I have to grow a beard?

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 3 – 10 – 0 (.231)
Without the spread: 8 – 5 – 0 (.615)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 0 – 0 – 0 (N/A)

Season
With the spread: 66 – 62 – 1 (.516)
Without the spread: 85 – 44 – 0 (.659)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 8 – 5 – 0 (.615)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

(From here on, just going with the good and the bad. Wins are good, losses are bad. Makes sense.)

THE GOOD

Arizona (+3.0) @ Chicago (-3.0)
Miami (+10.5) @ New England (-10.5)
Pittsburgh (-3.0) @ Denver (+3.0)

THE BAD

Green Bay (-9.5) @ Tampa Bay (+9.5)
Kansas City (+6.5) @ Jacksonville (-6.5)
Washington (+9.0) @ Atlanta (-9.0)
Baltimore (-3.0) @ Cincinnati (+3.0)
Houston (+8.5) @ Indianapolis (-8.5)
Carolina (+13.0) @ New Orleans (-13.0)
Detroit (+10.0) @ Seattle (-10.0)
San Diego (+4.5) @ N.Y. Giants (-4.5)
Tennessee (+4.0) @ San Francisco (-4.0)
Dallas (+3.0) @ Philadelphia (-3.0)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

THURSDAY

Chicago (+3.5) @ San Francisco (-3.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco (WIN)

SUNDAY

Cincinnati (+7.0) @ Pittsburgh (-7.0)
Cincinnati has a very good team this year, making all of these points tempting; but while these two teams match up pretty well on offense, Pittsburgh has the advantage in defense. They also have home field advantage and they let the last one against Cinci get away. When Pittsburgh wins, it always seems to be by double digits; even against strong teams like the Bengals.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

Atlanta (-1.5) @ Carolina (+1.5)
Carolina started the season off slowly, but they’ve picked up their play of late. They have the rushing attack to keep Matt Ryan off the field, and the passing defense to slow him down when he is out there. These two teams always play eachother tough, and I think it’s the Panthers’ turn to come out on top.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Carolina

Tampa Bay (+10.0) @ Miami (-10.0)
Congrats, Tampa Bay, you will not go winless this year. The effort to beat Green Bay was great, but it doesn’t change the fact that they are one of the worst teams in the NFL. Miami, a quietly solid team with arguably the most underrated offense in the league, should take care of business easily this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Miami

New Orleans (-13.5) @ St. Louis (+13.5)
Okay, so New Orleans falls behind big early, and then storms back late. I get it. It’s starting to annoy me, too, since it keeps allowing the opponent to cover. But does it annoy me enough to take the lowly Rams? Not a chance. Can we play all four quarters this week, guys?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

Jacksonville (+6.5) @ N.Y. Jets (-6.5)
This one has the look and feel of an ugly game. It is hard to ignore the Jags’ last few road games; 30-13 loss @Tennessee, 41-0 loss @Seattle. They haven’t exactly traveled well of late, and going up against a tough Jets defense, I don’t like their chances of bucking the trend.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: N.Y. Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: N.Y. Jets

Buffalo (+8.5) @ Tennessee (-8.5)
Eventually I’ll have to come around and accept that Tennessee is “back”, but I’m still not ready to. As bad as Buffalo is, their defense has been pretty strong. And Tennessee’s defense still leaves a bit to be desired. The Titans pick up the win, but I’m not expecting it to be by double digits.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee

Denver (-3.5) @ Washington (+3.5)
Everybody (83% spread, 85% moneyline) loves the Broncos to bounce back with a win against lowly Washington, and yet the spread moved from 4.5 to 3.5. Verrrry interesting. As if fading the public and the reverse line movement wasn’t enough, my model happens to be on the Redskins as well, predicting a score of 21-17. That certainly doesn’t hurt.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Washington

Detroit (+16.5) @ Minnesota (-16.5)
Detroit is really awful, and Minnesota is really good, but am I really ready to give up 16.5 points? Actually, yes, I believe that I am. Fresh off of a bye against a weak opponent, I have to take the Vikings here to tee off.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Minnesota

Kansas City (+2.0) @ Oakland (-2.0)
I can almost guarantee I’m going to regret this pick, and my model certainly thinks so (predicting a 28-14 KC victory), but the Raiders get back two huge offensive weapons in Darren McFadden and Chaz Shilens this week. Add that to the fact that they’ve already beaten the Chiefs this season and have shown some life on defense at home sporadically… and I have to take my pathetic Raiders.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Oakland

Dallas (-3.0) @ Green Bay (+3.0)
This game should be a lot of fun to watch. Dallas has surprised me this season with their strong play, and I think they match up very well here; Green Bay’s defense has been beatable, and the Cowboys should be able to get pressure on Aaron Rodgers as the Packers’ o-line has also been a problem for them. Should be a good game, but I like the Cowboys to come out on top.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

Philadelphia @ San Diego (Pick’em)
I like San Diego quite a bit in this spot. They are starting to pick up momentum (as they often do late in the season), and Philadelphia is coming off of three straight division rivalry games AND is traveling across the country. This looks like a very good spot for the San Diego Chargers at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

Seattle (+9.0) @ Arizona (-9.0)
I can never quite wrap my head around Seattle, as they always find a way to make me wrong whether I pick for or against them. In this division rivalry, I’m once again tempted into take the points on the Seahawks, and can only hope their offense shows up this time against Arizona.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona

New England (+2.5) @ Indianapolis (-2.5)
What an excellent game for Sunday Night Football. Should be a lot of fun to kick back and watch. As for who is going to win? My model likes New England, but I like the Colts at home; this game will be a big test for both of these teams and could obviously be a preview of a playoff game down the road. Home field + Peyton Manning in a night game at less then a FG, I have to take my chances.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

MONDAY

Baltimore (-10.5) @ Cleveland (+10.5)
Cleveland tends to show up for games like this when you least expect them to, but they match up terribly against the Ravens, and Baltimore needs some wins badly and should be completely focused this Monday night. As such, I’ll have to assume they give their best effort, which should be enough to cover this spread.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 33 – 28 – 5 (.541)

COLLEGE FOOTBALL FANS: Check out the website I run with my best friend Sam,
http://www.allpac10.com! Content updated daily.
Week 11 Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fedtZ6QZsM4

UAB -1.5 (WIN)
Idaho +31.5 (LOSS)
Oregon State -13.0 (WIN)
South Carolina +17.5 (WIN)
Utah +20.0 (LOSS)
Arizona +3.0 (LOSS)Good Luck This Week!

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Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
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