Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

In light of the shocking news of Tiger Woods’ affairs, I have decided that I too must apologize for my transgressions.

I’m sorry, NFL football. I’ve been seeing another league… the NCAAF.

It’s younger. It’s more colorful. It’s more fun.

Don’t look at me that way. YOU are the one that changed! I used to be so excited to cap every single game. Each game was its own unique puzzle just waiting to be solved. Spreads were in the single digits. You know, there were good games!

Nowadays, I try just as hard. But after stat crunching and everything else, it always just comes to a coinflip these days. One lousy team playing a better team that should cream them. When I guess lousy team, they get creamed (Detroit, Oakland). When I guess better team, they are lackluster (Cincinnati, Atlanta).

College, I only pick games I really like… so win or lose, at least I feel like it’s more than just a crapshoot.

Hmm. Perhaps I’ll remodel the Dime next year, only pick games I like and philosophy picks. That might put a spark back into this relationship.

Until then… I’ll just have to keep seeing college football on the side.

(**Note, thanks to those of you that pointed out that the Buffalo game was in Toronto. Ironically, I made the same mistake last year, you’d think I’d have learned. Double ironically, I took Buffalo last time for the same reason, too. Triple ironically, had I known it was in Toronto, I’d have taken the Bills to get revenge for embarrassing themselves last year in Toronto. So alas, I was going to lose anyway.)

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 4 – 11 – 1 (.267)
Without the spread: 11 – 5 – 0 (.688)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 0 – 0 – 0 (N/A)

Season
With the spread: 85 – 89 – 2 (.489)
Without the spread: 120 – 56 – 0 (.682)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 10 – 5 – 0 (.667)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Miami (-3.5) @ Buffalo (+3.5)
Washington (+9.0) @ Philadelphia (-9.0)
Kansas City (+13.5) @ San Diego (-13.5)
Arizona (+3.0) @ Tennessee (-3.0) TIE
Pittsburgh (+2.5) @ Baltimore (-2.5)

THE BAD

Green Bay (-11.5) @ Detroit (+11.5)
Oakland (+13.5) @ Dallas (-13.5)
N.Y. Giants (-6.0) @ Denver (+6.0)
Seattle (-3.0) @ St. Louis (+3.0)
Carolina (+3.0) @ N.Y. Jets (-3.0)
Tampa Bay (+12.0) @ Atlanta (-12.0)
Cleveland (+14.0) @ Cincinnati (-14.0)
Indianapolis (-3.5) @ Houston (+3.5)
Jacksonville (+3.0) @ San Francisco (-3.0)
Chicago (+10.5) @ Minnesota (-10.5)
New England (+2.0) @ New Orleans (-2.0)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

THURSDAY

N.Y. Jets (-3.0) @ Buffalo (+3.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Buffalo (LOSS)

SUNDAY

Tampa Bay (+5.0) @ Carolina (-5.0)
Since Josh Freeman has taken over at quarterback, the Buccaneers have kept their games close, with the exception of New Orleans. Carolina hasn’t shown enough to be considered a real threat to buck that trend.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina

St. Louis (+9.5) @ Chicago (-9.5)
Chicago is just terrible. But after getting humiliated last week by their hated rival Minnesota, they aren’t going to let a doormat like St. Louis come into their house and keep it close, are they? With the way my picks have been going, I’m sure they will.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago

Tennessee (+6.5) @ Indianapolis (-6.5)
Vince Young has re-energized the Titans into believing they can’t be beaten. Indianapolis, well, hasn’t been beaten. For quite a while. These two teams usually play close games, and with both teams playing confident and well, I expect it to come down to the wire, making 6.5 worth the risk in my book.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

Philadelphia (-5.0) @ Atlanta (+5.0)
Two tricky teams to figure out here. I’m a bit thrown off by the spread; this one looks like a three or four point game either way to me. Philly is never completely healthy, and even when Atlanta loses they usually play tough; I’ll take the points at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

Oakland (+14.5) @ Pittsburgh (-14.5)
At first, I was thinking Oakland has extra rest playing on Thursday, and Pittsburgh played Sunday night. Then I remembered, it’s the Raiders. I think I prefer having them magically show up to screw me over every once in a while to actually PREDICTING they’ll show up.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

Detroit (+13.0) @ Cincinnati (-13.0)
Last week, Cinci got a cupcake opponent and couldn’t win by two TDs. Will this week be any different? Who knows. But after the Thanksgiving Day massacre I took picking Detroit and Oakland, like the Raiders, I don’t have the patience to pick the Lions against a far superior team right now.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati

New Orleans (-9.0) @ Washington (+9.0)
The Redskins have quietly been playing some very respectable football, while the Saints have loudly been playing some amazing football. After the huge emotional blowout win over New England on Monday Night, a letdown game seems inevitable. Plus, you know how I love to bet against the seemingly invincible.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

New England (-3.5) @ Miami (+3.5)
When I saw this spread, I was thinking it looked a little fishy that New England’s spread was so low. Then I remembered how they got completely manhandled on national television. But was Miami’s awful effort against Buffalo much better? This has ugly written all over it, but I still have to go with the Patriots because, well, they’re the Patriots.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

Houston (-2.5) @ Jacksonville (+2.5)
So which gives more, Houston’s rush defense or Jacksonville’s passing defense? My guess is, the one that I end up picking. Alas, I’m taking my chances on Houston making a few more stops and having success through the air.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston

Denver (-6.0) @ Kansas City (+6.0)
Last week I blew it, Denver was a pretty clear philosophy pick. Oh well. This week, I don’t know what to do with them. Thanksgiving may have been a restart, but it may also have just been a flash in the pan. I lean the latter, but considering how bad Kansas City is, I’m still going with Denver here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver

San Diego (-13.5) @ Cleveland (+13.5)
Through this disasterous little slump I’ve been in, San Diego has been kind enough to just go out there and win football games by a lot of points. That streak (and my luck riding it) will eventually run out, but as my Dad always says, “never kick a gift horse in the mouth”. (What the hell does that mean, anyway?)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

San Francisco (-1.0) @ Seattle (+1.0)
Coinflips are a whole lot of fun when you are hot and your worst enemy when you are cold. Alas, decisions like this are why I get paid the big bucks (oh, wait, I don’t get paid anything. Right.) Seattle has played three straight road games, and I think a return home will give them the slight edge here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Seattle

Dallas (-1.0) @ N.Y. Giants (+1.0)
The last time these two faced off, it was an offensive thriller that the Giants narrowly edged out. Since then, the Giants have looked awful, and the Cowboys have looked pretty damn good. Revenge seems to be in order here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

Minnesota (-3.5) @ Arizona (+3.5)
Ah, thank goodness for philosophy picks. I just love when a near-perfect team coming off of a blowout win against a division rival faces off against a team coming off of a loss and the spread is way too low. I love it even more when about 80% of the public bets the near-perfect team at -5 or -4.5, and yet the line moves down even further, begging more people to bet on the team that’s seemingly the obvious pick. Sure makes my job a whole heck of a lot easier. You know the routine.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Arizona

MONDAY

Baltimore (+3.5) @ Green Bay (-3.5)
Green Bay has been “one of those teams” for me this year… but than again, who hasn’t? It might be a trap, but I can’t help but take the points with Baltimore here; they are good enough to win outright, and three of their five losses have been by three points or less. Seems like another game they can at least keep close.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

SEASON RECORD: 41 – 29 – 6 (.586)

*No new video this week due to move*

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