Merry Christmas everyone! Hope you all have a wonderful day, even those of you that don’t celebrate the holiday :).

As for tonight’s game…

San Diego (+3.0) @ Tennessee (-3.0)
Two of the league’s hottest teams (San Diego with 9 straight wins, Tennessee 7-1 in last 8) square off in a game with plenty of playoff implications on the line. The most glaring thing about this match-up on paper for me is Tennessee’s weak passing defense against San Diego’s dominant passing attack. Looking closer, not a whole lot to like about Tennessee here. San Diego has a tough rushing defense, which could slow down Chris Johnson. Tennessee is 0-5 in their 5 meetings with San Diego since they became the Tennessee Titans; you have to go back to 1992 to find the last time this team (the Houston Oilers, anyway) beat the Chargers. And not only are the Chargers 9-0 in their last 9, but they are also 17-0 in their last 17 games in December. Needless to say, I’d be with the other 80%+ bettors that are on the Bolts tonight if I weren’t so damn philosophical. But then I wouldn’t be me, would I? Something is up with this spread, and I don’t think Vegas bookmakers are the gift-giving type, even on Christmas.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^Tennessee

Good luck, and once again, Merry Christmas!

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Who else is ready for this decade to end already?

Now that Christmas is in the books (I had a wonderful one with my family, hope you all had a great holiday as well! Thanks for all of the well wishes again!) and I have delivered and received my cash and prizes, I am ready to move on to what will hopefully be a better decade for all of us!

Oh, right, I’m not going anywhere until I get the Dime done. At the last second, as usual. But at least the frantic-ness of the holidays gives me an excuse, right? (Anyone?)

My quest to .500 took another step forward last week, though the Sunday and Monday night losses were brutal, turning what could have been an excellent week into instead just a good week. But I’m not one to complain about good weeks. Two more 9-win weeks and I’ll finish the season back over .500!

Now begins the madness that is the last two weeks of the season. Good teams resting players, bad teams playing for nothing. Best way to attack it is with a nice shiny coin that has good ridges for flipping.

Or, if you are nuts in the head (like, say, a guy with an NFL newsletter), you could actually try capping the games.

God help us all.

Happy New Year everyone! Have an excellent and safe New Year’s Eve!

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 9 – 6 – 1 (.600)
Without the spread: 9 – 7 – 0 (.563)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 2 – 2 – 1 (.500)

Season
With the spread: 108 – 113 – 3 (.489)
Without the spread: 151 – 73 – 0 (.674)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 14 – 9 – 1 (.609)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Indianapolis (-3.0) @ Jacksonville (+3.0)
Dallas (+9.0) @ New Orleans (-9.0)
Cleveland (+2.5) @ Kansas City (-2.5)
New England (-7.0) @ Buffalo (+7.0) TIE
Miami (+5.0) @ Tennessee (-5.0)
Houston (-14.0) @ St. Louis (+14.0)
Cincinnati (+7.0) @ San Diego (-7.0)
Oakland (+14.0) @ Denver (-14.0)
San Francisco (+7.5) @ Philadelphia (-7.5)
Chicago (+11.0) @ Baltimore (-11.0)

THE BAD

Arizona (-14.0) @ Detroit (+14.0)
Atlanta (+6.5) @ N.Y. Jets (-6.5)
Green Bay (+2.0) @ Pittsburgh (-2.0)
Tampa Bay (+6.5) @ Seattle (-6.5)
Minnesota (-9.0) @ Carolina (+9.0)
N.Y. Giants (-3.0) @ Washington (+3.0)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

May the dogs bark loudly this week!

FRIDAY

San Diego (+3.0) @ Tennessee (-3.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Tennessee (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^Tennessee (LOSS)

SUNDAY

Oakland (+3.0) @ Cleveland (-3.0)
Just like the Washington game a few weeks ago, you have a team playing consistently well of late (in the Browns) going against a Raiders team coming off of a big win and getting everyone believing in them again. Jamarcus Russell/Charlie Frye? Have fun taking that side.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cleveland

Seattle (+14.0) @ Green Bay (-14.0)
Two teams I can’t figure out, the numbers suggest a blowout here, and I don’t see it much differently, either.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

Kansas City (+13.0) @ Cincinnati (-13.0)
This Cincinnati team just isn’t really a blowout type of team this year. KC has a red-hot back in Jamaal Charles, too; something tells me this is one of those games that the Bengals are never really in danger of losing, but aren’t ever way out in front, either.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati

Jacksonville (+10.0) @ New England (-10.0)
Quite simply, New England’s offense has not been good enough of late to warrant giving up 10 points to a solid team still playing for their playoff lives. I’d be somewhat surprised if the Jags manage to pull the upset, but I do expect them to keep it close.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

Tampa Bay (+14.0) @ New Orleans (-14.0)
Tampa Bay looked great last week, but more importantly, the Saints don’t have much to play for here. True, they haven’t mathematically wrapped up home field throughout yet; but I still doubt they will be bringing 110% effort to the table after losing their undefeated season and knowing they could beat this team with a less than perfect effort. I’ll take the points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

Carolina (+8.0) @ N.Y. Giants (-8.0)
Doesn’t get a whole lot more philosophical-y than this one. 1. Bad team with nothing to lose playing against a team that needs a win badly (all the pressure on the team that needs it). 2. Team (NYG) coming off of three straight games against division rivals. 3. Team coming off of MNF win against a division rival. All of these things point to a huge let down spot for the Giants, so I’m all over Carolina here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Carolina

Buffalo (+9.0) @ Atlanta (-9.0)
Even with Buffalo’s QB issues, I don’t see them as a near-double digit underdog here. Both teams should struggle to score, and those 9 points should come in handy.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

Baltimore (+3.0) @ Pittsburgh (-3.0)
Baltimore has had no luck whatsoever when they’ve headed into Pittsburgh in recent years, but this isn’t the same Pittsburgh team. I’m not overwhelmingly impressed with Baltimore, either, but one amazing late win over Green Bay doesn’t erase how mediocre this team has played of late, and I’m happy to take the points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Baltimore

Houston (+1.5) @ Miami (-1.5)
This one is a true coinflip between two 7-7 teams both still alive in the hunt for a playoff spot. Both teams should be at their best, and since I don’t see much edge on either side, I’ll have to take the home field advantage.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Miami

Detroit (+14.0) @ San Francisco (-14.0)
When San Fran wins, they tend to win big. This should be one of those occassions; the defense should have no trouble with Detroit, and the offense should have their share of fun as well.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco

St. Louis (+14.5) @ Arizona (-14.5)
Two teams I’m hopeless with predicting in the same game, my favorite! Arizona really doesn’t have much to play for here (playoff spot locked up, first-round bye unlikely) so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a less-than-100% effort. Also, this is the NFL, right? Do we really give 14.5 to a division rival in week 16?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona

Denver (+7.0) @ Philadelphia (-7.0)
Part of me sees Denver bouncing back from last week’s awful game with a respectable effort this week. The other part of me sees a very hot and very strong team in the Eagles, at home, trying to lock up the division. I’ll go with that side.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

N.Y. Jets (+4.0) @ Indianapolis (-4.0)
If we were sure that the Colts were going to be giving it their all, we’d still have to give the Jets a good look due to their strong defense. Since we aren’t sure that Manning and some other key players won’t be resting, we might as well take the points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: N.Y. Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

Dallas (-7.0) @ Washington (+7.0)
Another very nice philosophy pick. Once again a team with nothing to lose playing against a team trying to secure a playoff spot. Also a division rival underdog. Also Dallas coming off of a huge win over than-undefeated New Orleans and Washington coming off of a humiliating loss (at home no less) to the Giants. Yes, Washington just made a fool of me and my philosophy picks Monday night, but this one is far far too good to pass up on.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Washington

MONDAY

Minnesota (-7.0) @ Chicago (+7.0)
Another division-rival-dog-with-nothing-to-lose philosophy pick here. Minnesota still has a lot to play for, too; not only are they still in the running for home field throughout, but they could also lose their first round bye if they continue to slip up. As useless as the Bears have been this season, I have to take the points on them at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Minnesota

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

SEASON RECORD: 41 – 29 – 6 (.586)

Bowl Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zvQUB3-C5zc

BYU +2.5 (WIN)
Oregon -3.5
Michigan State +8.0
Texas +4

———————
Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
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