Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

First thing’s first; sorry this thing is so damn late this week. Usually I like to get the Dime out on Friday mornings, and that obviously didn’t go as planned this week.

It’s been a very long and trying week for me personally, and it has kind of sent my schedule out of whack a bit. So it goes. Better (super) late than never, right? Next week will hopefully be back to normal.

Last weekend was certainly a roller coaster. After winning Thursday night and going 5-4 through the morning games, it looked like I was on my way to a nice week! Not so much. Five straight losses later and I find my week at the mercy of my lowly favorite team, the Oakland Raiders.

And wouldn’t you know it, they played their hearts out and got a cover. Would have loved to see them hang on for the win, but hey, one step at a time.

7-9 beat’s the hell out of last year’s 4-12 start. Let’s see if we can get over .500 this week!

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 7 – 9 – 0 (.438)
Without the spread: 10 – 6 – 0 (.625)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 1 – 1 – 0 (.500)

Season
With the spread: 7 – 9 – 0 (.438)
Without the spread: 10 – 6 – 0 (.625)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 1 – 1 – 0 (.500)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Tennessee (+6.5) @ Pittsburgh (-6.5) W
Kansas City (+13.0) @ Baltimore (-13.0) W
Philadelphia (-2.5) @ Carolina (+2.5) W
Miami (+4.0) @ Atlanta (-4.0) W
Detroit (+13.0) @ New Orleans (-13.0) W
Jacksonville (+7.0) @ Indianapolis (-7.0) W
San Diego (-9.0) @ Oakland (+9.0) W

THE BAD

Minnesota (-4.0) @ Cleveland (+4.0) L
Dallas (-6.0) @ Tampa Bay (+6.0) L
N.Y. Jets (+4.5) @ Houston (-4.5) L
St. Louis (+9.0) @ Seattle (-9.0) L
San Francisco (+6.0) @ Arizona (-6.0) L

THE COULD HAVE GONE EITHER WAY/NOT MY WAY THIS WEEK:

Denver (+4.0) @ Cincinnati (-4.0) L
Washington (+6.5) @ N.Y. Giants (-6.5) L
Chicago (+3.5) @ Green Bay (-3.5) L

THE “WHAT THE $%^@”?:

Buffalo (+10.5) @ New England (-10.5) L
Did it really take a highly improbable comeback for New England to come out on top here?

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

Tread lightly… lot’s of very difficult games to figure out this week.

Carolina (+6.0) @ Atlanta (-6.0)
I was really leaning towards making a case for the Panthers to bounce back this week after such a horrible performance last week, but I’m not sure that I can. You really never know what you are going to get out of Jake Delhomme; but in Atlanta, I’ll lean towards the bad one showing up.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

New Orleans (-1.0) @ Philadelphia (+1.0)
New Orleans goes absolutely nuts on offense and Philadelphia loses Donavan McNabb. Why such a low spread, Vegas? It isn’t a true philosophy pick as the Eagles DID win big last week and it was only Detroit that New Orleans beat; but I still think this spread says a lot about how bookmakers feel about how well the Eagles’ defense matches up here. We will see.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Philadelphia

Houston (+7.0) @ Tennessee (-7.0)
This one is a tough one, as I came into this season expecting good things out of Houston and last Sunday was such a terrible effort at home. The Texans should play better this week, but after a frustrating loss to Pittsburgh last week, Tennessee will likely get the job done in their home opener.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee

Minnesota (-9.5) @ Detroit (+9.5)
Detroit is likely going to have to wait to break their losing streak. If the let Mike Bell run all over them, what happens when the best RB in the league rolls into town? Hard to see Peterson not having a field day in this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Minnesota

New England (-3.0) @ N.Y. Jets (+3.0)
It took an extremely unlikely comeback for the Patriots at home to narrowly escape a Buffalo team that likely isn’t as good as this Jets team. Now they hit the road for this one? Very difficult game to figure out. I’m going to take the Brady-was-shaking-off-the-rust angle; if I’m right, and the 2007-offense returns, this will be one of the last times you’ll be able to get the Patriots at this small a number.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

Arizona (+3.0) @ Jacksonville (-3.0)
Not only did Arizona look off last week, historically they are terrible at traveling to the east coast. Keep in mind that as great as their playoff run was, this was an 8-8 Cardinals team last year in the regular season; they are beatable. An improved Jaguars team picks up the first win of their season this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Jacksonville

Oakland (+3.0) @ Kansas City (-3.0)
Have a coin nearby? Go ahead and flip it. You never know what you are going to get out of Jamarcus Russell; while some people simply like to write it off as “he sucks”, the truth is that he’s got a lot of talent, he just lacks consistancy. If he can make his throws Sunday, the Raiders defense and running game look good enough to win. If he can’t, Kansas City probably comes out on top. I’m going to say the Raiders do enough to win here; but this is “one of those games”.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Oakland

St. Louis (+10.0) @ Washington (-10.0)
St. Louis couldn’t have looked worse last weekend, and I’m probably making a big mistake taking them. But they’ve got enough talent on the offensive side of the ball to avoid being completely shut down a second straight week, and I’m just not confident enough in the Redskins’ offense to give up 10 points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Washington

Cincinnati (+9.5) @ Green Bay (-9.5)
Green Bay looks to be the real deal this season, but I can only imagine how infuriating it must be to have a win stolen from you like it was for the Bengals last week on the fluke Stokley touchdown in the closing seconds. Something tells me they’ve been waiting all week to make things right; and while they may not come out on top, I think they’ll at least make a game of it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

Tampa Bay (+4.5) @ Buffalo (-4.5)
Not sure whether the Patriots game was a fluke or not, but the Bills showed me more than enough to warrant taking them over the lowly Bucs this week. Hopefully they will come out with the same fire they did in New England; and actually keep it through the whole game this time.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Buffalo

Seattle (+1.0) @ San Francisco (-1.0)
San Francisco has been playing tough, competitive football ever since Mike Singletary took over as coach. It is so difficult to pick against this team, but on the flip side I really think Seattle might be poised for a big bounce-back year this season. I’ll take the Seahawks, but won’t be surprised if the 49ers make me pay for it like usual.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Seattle

Pittsburgh (-3.0) @ Chicago (+3.0)
The one and only philosophy pick of the week, no one is give Chicago any chance here. Jay Cutler was a complete disaster (and things won’t be any easier this week against Pittsburgh’s incredible defense), and the Steelers of course are one of the league’s best. Chicago also lost Brian Urlacher for the year. The line actually opened at -1.0 for Pittsburgh until it was bet down to 3, where it has stayed despite 85% of bets coming in on Chicago. Losing your captain and emotional leader and having a super-shaky QB? Sounds like a philosophy pick to me.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Chicago

Cleveland (+3.0) @ Denver (-3.0)
Honestly, I don’t have any opinion on this game; I don’t think either of these teams are very good, but if week one was any indication, Denver has a pretty good defense; they also have home field this week, so I’ll take them in this coin-flipper.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver

Baltimore (+3.0) @ San Diego (-3.0)
Very tricky game here. The spread seems off to me, considering the Chargers just had so much trouble with the Raiders. But then I remember that the Ravens just had quite a bit of trouble with the Cheifs, too. These will both be great teams in the AFC this year, and this should be a very good game. In what I think will be a close one, I have to take the points, and bank on San Diego having a bit of a MNF hangover as well.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Baltimore

N.Y. Giants (+3.0) @ Dallas (-3.0)
A big win over what projects to be a very bad Tampa Bay Bucs team doesn’t sell me on the Dallas Cowboys. This week we will see how they measure up against much stronger competition; and while the Gmen also have something to prove, I think I’m getting the better team with the points in this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: N.Y. Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *N.Y. Giants

Indianapolis (-3.0) @ Miami (+3.0)
This is a tough game to call as I expect it to be a low scoring one. Both teams played well on defense last week and didn’t do much offensively. In the end, I think Manning and the Colts come out on top; and I’ll have to reluctantly lay the three points on that.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 11 – 8 – 0 (.579)
COLLEGE FOOTBALL FANS: Check out the website I run with my best friend Sam, http://www.allpac10.com! Content updated daily.
Week 3 Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=203zB9RHj8c

Cal -13.5 (WIN)
Arizona/Iowa Under 41.5 (LOSS)
SMU -6.0 (LOSS)
Stanford -17.0 (WIN)

Good Luck This Week!
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