Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Well, it’s finally official, and I can share why I’ve been so out-of-it lately… a couple of weeks ago I was fired from my job at SBR.

Unceremoniously, no warning, no apology. Just a “Hey, thanks for moving 1500 miles to take this job! 7 months later, we just decide we don’t want you anymore, bye!”

Well, it wasn’t said EXACTLY like that. But you get the idea.

So, yeah. Sorry I haven’t been my normal cheery and productive self… trying to figure out what the hell I’m going to do with my life moving forward.

But enough depressing, Dave is screwed mumbo-jumbo; lets get to the football!

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 7 – 9 – 0 (.688)
Without the spread: 9 – 7 – 0 (.625)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 0 – 2 – 0 (.000)

Season
With the spread: 25 – 23 – 0 (.521)
Without the spread: 29 – 19 – 0 (.604)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 2 – 3 – 0 (.400)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Green Bay (-6.5) @ St. Louis (+6.5) W
Washington (-6.5) @ Detroit (+6.5) W
San Francisco (+7.0) @ Minnesota (-7.0) W
Cleveland (+13.5) @ Baltimore (-13.5) W
New Orleans (-6.0) @ Buffalo (+6.0) W
Pittsburgh (-3.5) @ Cincinnati (+3.5) W
Carolina (+9.0) @ Dallas (-9.0) W

THE BAD

Jacksonville (+3.5) @ Houston (-3.5) L
Atlanta (+4.5) @ New England (-4.5) L
N.Y. Giants (-6.5) @ Tampa Bay (+6.5) L
Kansas City (+9.0) @ Philadelphia (-9.0) L
Denver (-2.0) @ Oakland (+2.0) L
Indianapolis (+3.0) @ Arizona (-3.0) L

THE COULD HAVE GONE EITHER WAY/NOT MY WAY THIS WEEK:

Tennessee (+2.0) @ N.Y. Jets (-2.0) L
Chicago (-2.5) @ Seattle (+2.5) L
Miami (+5.5) @ San Diego (-5.5) L

THE “WHAT THE $%^@”?:

NONE

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

SUNDAY

Detroit (+10.0) @ Chicago (-10.0)
Hooray, Detroit got their first win in forever! I’m very happy for you guys! Now, back to reality; Chicago’s offense isn’t going to struggle like Washington’s did, and it’s a lot harder to play on the road. Bears win and cover.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago

Cincinnati (-6.0) @ Cleveland (+6.0)
The only philosophy pick of the week, you’ve got two division rivals on opposite sides of the spectrum; one is flying high with wins over tough opponents in Green Bay and Pittsburgh; the other is arguably the worst team in the league and has lost every game they’ve played by double digits. This spread seems way too low considering the circumstances, and this has all the makings of “one of those games”.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Cleveland

Tennessee (-3.0) @ Jacksonville (+3.0)
Tennessee is just too good to be winless. Jacksonville remains impossible to figure out, so I won’t bother to try; instead I’ll just assume that this is the week that the football world corrects itself a bit and the Titans come out on top.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee

N.Y. Giants (-9.0) @ Kansas City (+9.0)
Well, what happened last week when the Giants visited an awful team in Tampa Bay? They destroyed them handily. The Chiefs aren’t as bad as the Buccaneers, but they are definitely bad enough to lose this game by double digits, and they likely will.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: N.Y. Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: N.Y. Giants

Baltimore (+2.0) @ New England (-2.0)
Impressive win by New England last week over a good Atlanta Falcons team; another win this week would convince me that mabe we should start looking out for this team again. That said, Baltimore seems to have an offense to go with that scary defense now, and you’d be hard pressed to find a team in the NFL that looks much better. Getting this team without giving up points is a proposition I’d take against just about any team.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Baltimore

Oakland (+9.0) @ Houston (-9.0)
I hate taking Oakland, trust me, I do. Jamarcus Russell is undoubtedly the worst quarterback in the league right now. But take a quick look at run defenses in the league, and you’ll see Houston’s name at the bottom of the list; they are the league’s worst rushing defense giving up over 200 yards on the ground a game. If McFadden and Bush are able to rack up yards on the ground, this game should stay close; and I believe that will be the case.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston

Tampa Bay (+7.5) @ Washington (-7.5)
The Redskins started the season off playing against three of the NFL’s worst teams; St. Louis, Detroit, and Tampa Bay. So far they barely edged out St. Louis and lost to Detroit. Smart money is probably on Tampa Bay here considering how bad Washington has looked; but I think back at home the Redskins finally put a complete game together here and take care of business.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Washington

Seattle (+10.0) @ Indianapolis (-10.0)
Indianapolis is flat out rolling. Pierre Garcon has emerged as a legitimate threat, and the Colts defense showed me a lot last week, too. Hard to see Seattle scoring a whole lot in this one, and even harder to see the Colts offense being contained.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

N.Y. Jets (+7.0) @ New Orleans (-7.0)
Always take the shutdown defense over the high-powered offense, the theory goes. But what happens when the high-powered offense also apparently has a pretty damn good defense, too? Going against the Saints is not easy, but I’ll give the Jets the respect they deserve this week; they’ve beaten some pretty damn good teams, and they should be able to at least make a game out of this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: N.Y. Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

Buffalo @ Miami (Pick’em)
I don’t really know which way to go in this one, but I’m going to take Miami because this spread doesn’t make much sense to me. With Chad Pennington out and Buffalo playing decent football this year, I’d have thought they’d be favorites in this one; but the fact that it’s a pick’em leads me to believe that Vegas probably figures Miami is due for a win no matter who is under center. They have had a brutal stretch of games to start the year (Atlanta, Indianapolis, San Diego), and this is the first game they aren’t an underdog in, at home no less.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Miami

St. Louis (+9.5) @ San Francisco (-9.5)
San Francisco should win this one, but by 10 points? I wouldn’t be surprised, but the 49ers aren’t a blow-out type of team, and St. Louis should be able to at least keep it close. Well, I feel more comfortable with the points in this one, anyway.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco

Dallas (-3.0) @ Denver (+3.0)
I’m still not sold on the Broncos. The defense has looked great, but Cleveland and Oakland will do that for you. Now they have a chance to prove themselves against a high-powered albeit turnover prone offense; and I think they will fall short. Dallas’s defense should be fine against the Broncos’ offense, and they should score enough to be pull off the road win.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

San Diego (+6.0) @ Pittsburgh (-6.0)
Interesting spread here. Pittsburgh is 1-2 and they don’t exactly have a high-powered offense; now they meet a very good San Diego team and have to give up six points? These teams almost always seem to play a close game, and taking the points is awfully tempting; but it feels like a trap. Maybe it’s San Diego traveling across the country, maybe it’s Pittsburgh mad as hell at losing two straight, but whatever it is, this spread tells me something is awry and Pittsburgh wins by a touchdown or more.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

MONDAY

Green Bay (+3.5) @ Minnesota (-3.5)
Brett Favre, Brett Favre, Brett Favre, Brett Favre, Brett Favre. That’s alllllll this game is about, right? How many montages will we see? Something tells me that Green Bay isn’t going to want to be a footnote Monday Night when BRETT FAVRE CONQUERS HIS OLD TEAM! This game should be an ugly one, and getting more than a field goal in a game like this is very nice; but I like the outright upset, too.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Green Bay

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 13 – 12 – 1 (.520)
COLLEGE FOOTBALL FANS: Check out the website I run with my best friend Sam, http://www.allpac10.com! Content updated daily.

Week 5 Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0A41JliRipg

Clemson -13.0
Alabama -15.5
Notre Dame -12.5
Tulsa -17.0
Oklahoma -7.5
Texas El Paso +15.0
USC/Cal Under 46.5

Good Luck This Week!
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Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
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