Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Sorry this is so late! Some personal stuff came up tonight that needed attending to. Maybe NEXT week will be the week I get back on a somewhat normal schedule?!?

Last week was a nice success, going 9-5… disappointed that St. Louis decided to suck so bad, especially in the red zone, when I highlighted them so strongly; but that’s what happens when you pick bad teams. Sometimes, they just do what they do; suck.

I’m feeling pretty good about this week’s picks, but I must admit, I’m still a bit taken aback by what I saw Friday morning (here comes a random story).

I went to check on my african dwarf frogs (the cool little fully-aquatic frogs); Sidney Frogsby, Dion Frogeuf, and Nikolai Frogibulin (named after hockey players for those of you that didn’t pick up on that). Anyway, they were fine… but Dion Frogeuf and Nikolai Frogibulin were, well… you know… making froggy love.

A few hours and about 100 eggs later, it was pretty clear that Nikolai Frogibulin was NOT a man. Thinking of renaming her Elisha Frogbert; after all, the real Dion Phaneuf actually hooked up with Elisha Cuthbert. I’m just feeling bad for Sidney, poor little third wheel that he is.

(If you were wondering just how bored/insane I am since being fired… now you know.)

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 9 – 5 – 0 (.643)
Without the spread: 9 – 5 – 0 (.643)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 1 – 1 – 0 (.500)

Season
With the spread: 40 – 36 – 0 (.526)
Without the spread: 47 – 29 – 0 (.618)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 4 – 4 – 0 (.500)
QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Cincinnati (+9.0) @ Baltimore (-9.0) W
Washington (+4.0) @ Carolina (-4.0) W
Pittsburgh (-10.5) @ Detroit (+10.5) W
Oakland (+15.0) @ N.Y. Giants (-15.0) W
Tampa Bay (+15.0) @ Philadelphia (-15.0) W
New England (-3.0) @ Denver (+3.0) W
Jacksonville (+1.0) @ Seattle (-1.0) W
Indianapolis (-3.5) @ Tennessee (+3.5) W
N.Y. Jets (-1.5) @ Miami (+1.5) W

THE BAD

Cleveland (+6.0) @ Buffalo (-6.0) L
Minnesota (-10.0) @ St. Louis (+10.0) L

THE COULD HAVE GONE EITHER WAY/NOT MY WAY THIS WEEK:

Dallas (-7.5) @ Kansas City (+7.5) L
Houston (+6.0) @ Arizona (-6.0) L

THE “WHAT THE $%^@”?:

Atlanta (+2.5) @ San Francisco (-2.5) L
I’m fine with Atlanta winning, but absolutely destroying the 49ers was unexpected.
THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

SUNDAY

Carolina (-3.0) @ Tampa Bay (+3.0)
Two very, very bad teams. As tempting as it is to take the home team and the points in the battle of the bad, I think Carolina is the better team, and at least they showed us they can win last week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina

Detroit (+14.0) @ Green Bay (-14.0)
Alright Vegas, you win. I’ll bite. Green Bay is obviously the better team here and coming fresh off of the bye, but Detroit showed a lot of fight last week against Pittsburgh; and the Packers defense has been a bit off this season. Two TDs is a lot of points, and this one seems worth a chance.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

St. Louis (+9.5) @ Jacksonville (-9.5)
When you are a near-double digit underdog to a team that just lost 41-0, you know things are going wrong. Sadly for the St. Louis, I can’t find any good reason why Jacksonville doesn’t bounce back at home here and take out their aggression from being embarassed last week on the lowly Rams.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Jacksonville

Baltimore (+3.0) @ Minnesota (-3.0)
So much purple, so much great football. Minnesota is doing everything right on both sides of the ball, and they’ve got home field advantage. Baltimore is an outstanding team, but they haven’t quite put it all together defensively this season. They might bounce back from a tough loss this week, but I can’t pick against the Vikes again until they give me a reason to.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Minnesota

Houston (+5.5) @ Cincinnati (-5.5)
Philosophy picks are a modest 4-4 this season, but I’ve got to stick by them. Not only has Cincinnati played in three straight division rivalry games and are favored this week which would make them an auto-philosophy pick; but all three games were very close and taxing games. Doesn’t get a whole lot more clear cut of a potential let down situation than this.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Houston

Kansas City (+6.0) @ Washington (-6.0)
Washington gets the slight edge here with the better defense; but that edge is very slight. I’m not sure it’s enough to give up six points. KC has played some tough teams, and the Redskins have played plenty of easy ones (and struggled along the way), so I’ll take the points here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Washington

N.Y. Giants (+3.0) @ New Orleans (-3.0)
I’m surprised that I’m taking the Saints here, but the Giants just haven’t been tested in weeks. TB, KC, Oak? Even Dallas and Washington victories are not that impressive considering what we’ve seen from those two. Make no mistake about it, I think the Giants are the real deal; but the Saints have beaten some strong competition this year, and at home fresh off the bye, they deserve the benefit of the doubt.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

Cleveland (+14.0) @ Pittsburgh (-14.0)
Pittsburgh has had it’s share of problems this year, especially on defense. Getting Polamalu back should help, but what should help even more is going against this Brown’s offense… or lack there of. Hate giving up this many points, but I’d hate being on Cleveland here even more.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

Philadelphia (-14.0) @ Oakland (+14.0)
Wow, I can’t believe I’m taking Oakland. I really can’t. They are totally dreadful, and will likely lose by five touchdowns. That said, it’s one thing to give 14 points at home; but on the road? This will be Philadelphia’s first road game in over a month. And as bad as the Raiders have been, their last three opponents (NYG, Hou, Den) are all pretty legit, including two undefeated teams. An ugly cover seems possible to me; but yuck.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

Arizona (+3.0) @ Seattle (-3.0)
Very interesting game here; The Cardinals haven’t impressed all that much this season, and the Seahawks appear to be a completely different team when Hasselbeck is in. I’m still not sold though; I get the feeling the Cardinals show up in a big way today. Should be a good one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Arizona

Tennessee (+9.0) @ New England (-9.0)
Am I really going to give the Tennessee Titans nine points? Sadly, I don’t see any way around it. The Titans have been hopeless on both sides of the ball; Kerry Collins’ success last year is looking more and more like a fluke, and while much is being made of Haynesworth’s absence, what happened to the secondary? After a tough loss last week, New England should be able to right the ship this week against a surprisingly bad Titans team.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

Buffalo (+9.5) @ N.Y. Jets (-9.5)
Buffalo has just looked hopeless this season. Getting destroyed by the Dolphins two weeks ago, and then following that act up with a home loss to Cleveland? The team is playing terrible, uninspired football. The Jets meanwhile have lost two straight but are far from hopeless. This is a great football team due for a big win, and it comes this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: N.Y. Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: N.Y. Jets

Chicago (+3.0) @ Atlanta (-3.0)
Last week’s huge win over San Francisco kind of felt like a statement – Atlanta is back. Still don’t trust Jay Cutler on the road and still don’t know what to make of Chicago in general. I’ll just play it safe and go with the home team that appears to be picking up some momentum.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

MONDAY

Denver (+3.5) @ San Diego (-3.5)
This is getting silly. I know, I find it shocking that Kyle Orton is apparently a good football player too. I think it’s crazy that the Broncos have an amazing shutdown defense as well! But it’s all true. While everyone else continues to doubt them, I’ll just ride the Bronco train until it derails; and getting 3.5 points with a defense like this is a great proposition.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Denver

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 22 – 18 – 3 (.550)

COLLEGE FOOTBALL FANS: Check out the website I run with my best friend Sam, http://www.allpac10.com! Content updated daily.

Week 7 Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElNz__ix7wA
Oklahoma +3.0 (TIE)
USC -10.0 (LOSS)
Cal -3.5 (WIN)
ASU/Wash Under 47.5 (WIN)

Good Luck This Week!
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