2009 NFL Newsletter: Dave’s Dime Week 8

By , October 30, 2009

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Man I love night games this year! 12-3 against the spread on Sunday and Monday night games; 11-1 since week 2.

Might as well just start calling me “Prime Time”

(Actually, scratch that. I’d probably get sued by Deion Sanders, and I’m not exactly in the best financial state right now. Better hold off on the nickname.)

Everything went my way last week with my 10-2-1… all the bounces and everything. Vegas lost a lot of money last week as favorites were 9-2-1; tread lightly this week, I’m guessing the lines are going to kill a lot of us this week!

Side note: Last week, sticking with my “9-5” theme, I said my college record added up to 9-5-2. 4-2, 2-1-1, 3-1-1.

What is 2+1+1?

That’s right, 4, not 5. Meaning I am stupid, but I’ll give myself a pass since I wrote the damn thing at like 5 in the morning and haven’t been sleeping well (like that’s an excuse for not knowing how to add, stupid bastard Dave).

NOT A SINGLE ONE OF YOU CALLED ME ON IT! Meaning; A) None of you are reading the Dime (or you are skipping over the intros), B) None of you can add properly, C) You DID read and DID notice, but since I’ve been picking winners and am under a lot of stress, you decided to give me a pass because you are such great pals.

Hmm. I’m going with Option C. Option A is too depressing, and Option B is too insulting.

Moving on! Happy Halloween!

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 10 – 2 – 1 (.833)
Without the spread: 10 – 3 – 0 (.769)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 2 – 1 – 0 (.667)

Season
With the spread: 59 – 43 – 1 (.578)
Without the spread: 68 – 35 – 0 (.660)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 7 – 5 – 0 (.583)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

New England (-14.5) @ Tampa Bay (+14.5) W
Minnesota (+6.0) @ Pittsburgh (-6.0) W
Green Bay (-9.0) @ Cleveland (+9.0) W
N.Y. Jets (-6.0) @ Oakland (+6.0) W
Buffalo (+7.0) @ Carolina (-7.0) W
Chicago @ Cincinnati (Pick’em) W
New Orleans (-6.0) @ Miami (+6.0) W
Atlanta (+4.5) @ Dallas (-4.5) W
Arizona (+7.0) @ N.Y. Giants (-7.0) W
Philadelphia (-7.0) @ Washington (+7.0) W

THE BAD

Indianapolis (-14.0) @ St. Louis (+14.0) L
San Diego (-5.5) @ Kansas City (+5.5) L
THE COULD HAVE GONE EITHER WAY/NOT MY WAY THIS WEEK:
San Francisco (+3.0) @ Houston (-3.0) T

THE “WHAT THE $%^@”?:

NONE

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

SUNDAY

Denver (+3.5) @ Baltimore (-3.5)
Still no respect for Denver, huh? Can’t say that I’m surprised. If it’s the same Denver team that went into the bye,
all signs point to this one being a very close game. I actually do see Baltimore squeaking out the victory at home, but expect it to be a close one to the end.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

Houston (-3.0) @ Buffalo (+3.0)
Buffalo’s defense has quietly been putting together a nice little run, making them a tempting home dog here. Despite
the two straight wins though, I’m still not sold, and have to take this solid Texans team giving up only a field goal.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston

Cleveland (+13.0) @ Chicago (-13.0)
Chicago’s offense had that huge game against Detroit, but otherwise it’s been pretty quiet. Cleveland is not a good
football team by any stretch, but I think they can put together a decent enough defensive effort to keep from losing this one by two touchdowns.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago

St. Louis (+4.0) @ Detroit (-4.0)
Shocking to see Detroit as a favorite, isn’t it? Not when you look at the numbers. St. Louis is hopelessly bad, and my model actually projects a score of St. Louis 14 – Detroit 35. Wow. This is Detroit, isn’t it? St. Louis’s defense is so bad it will make even Detroit’s offense shine, and while I’m not sure they’ll win by three TDs, I do think they win by one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Detroit

Miami (+3.5) @ N.Y. Jets (-3.5)
The Jets may very well win this game, but these two teams are very evenly matched (as they showed last time around),
and I wouldn’t feel comfortable giving up more than a field goal in this spot. With the Jets coming off of the blowout win and Miami coming off of the heartbreaking loss, this feels like a good spot for an upset pick, too.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Miami

San Francisco (+13.0) @ Indianapolis (-13.0)
Indianapolis just keeps rolling, dominating on both sides of the ball. Until they stop, I can’t keep talking myself out of picking them; they’ve been one of the easiest plays on the board just about every week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

Seattle (+9.5) @ Dallas (-9.5)
Dallas had an excellent game against the Falcons last week, but I’m still not really sold on this team, especially on offense. I’m sure they’ll get the win at home, but Seattle is one of those teams that can throw together a really good game out of nowhere; and I get the feeling they’ll do just that this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

N.Y. Giants (-1.0) @ Philadelphia (+1.0)
Very tough game, as it always is when these two collide. Neither has looked extremely sharp of late, either. Philadelphia’s defense has been more consistant, and they’ve got home field here; can’t pass up on them in this spot.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia*

Jacksonville (+3.0) @ Tennessee (-3.0)
At first, I was thinking TRAP!, but again, Tennessee isn’t your typical winless team. People refuse to accept how bad they are, and they are getting plenty of action as the favorite this week. All eyes will be on Vince Young, but the real story is, this defense is terrible. Look for Jacksonville to put up 30+, and I’m not counting on Vince Young to do the same.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Jacksonville

Oakland (+16.5) @ San Diego (-16.5)
San Diego shouldn’t really be this big of a favorite against anybody; and yet, they are the pick here. Not only is Oakland’s offense hopeless, but the fact that Jamarcus Russell continue to take no responsibility at all is what is killing this team; you can’t have a player like that at a position like quarterback. I gave him as much patience as I could, but I’m off the wagon as well; and as long as this team keeps losing by 20-30, there’s no reason to pick them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

Minnesota (+3.0) @ Green Bay (-3.0)
I don’t need to repeat all of the amazing drama surrounding Brett Favre returning to Green Bay….. oops, I just did. Oh well. Last time, Green Bay kept it close despite some of the worst line-play I’ve seen in the NFL this season. With the home crowd behind them, I think this evenly-matched game tilts in Green Bay’s favor this time; no “revenge” for Favre.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

Carolina (+10.0) @ Arizona (-10.0)
Speaking of revenge, I know we’ve all forgotten, but Arizona beat Carolina at home as a huge underdog in the playoffs last year. Guess what; Carolina hasn’t forgotten. They’ve had this game circled all season I’m sure, and I wouldn’t be surprised if looking ahead to this one contributed to last week’s terrible game against Buffalo. Arizona may hold on to win, but I’m expecting an inspired effort from the Panthers.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona

MONDAY

Atlanta (+10.5) @ New Orleans (-10.5)
Well, last week pretty much summed up why you shouldn’t be picking against New Orleans; even when they SHOULD lose, they don’t. This team is playing at another level right now, and even if this is an insane amount of points to give up to a good Atlanta team, sign me up.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 25 – 19 – 4 (.568)

COLLEGE FOOTBALL FANS: Check out the website I run with my best friend Sam,
http://www.allpac10.com! Content updated daily.
Week 9 Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_xm3_48P6Y

New Mexico State +44.0
Oregon State -9.5
New Mexico +16.5
Notre Dame -27.5
SMU/Tulsa Over 52.5
ASU/Cal Under 51.5
UNLV/TCU Under 57.0

Good Luck This Week!

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