Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Well, you knew it was bound to happen.

I had to have an awful week sooner or later… you weren’t expecting me to pick 60% winners picking every game ATS, were you?

Alas, losing sucks, but it’s all part of the game. Hopefully the bounces treat me a lot better this time around.

(Sorry, keeping the intro short and sweet today… I’m too tired to be creative. Sorry these are so late again as well!)

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 4 – 9 – 0 (.308)
Without the spread: 9 – 4 – 0 (.692)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 1 – 0 – 0 (1.000)

Season
With the spread: 63 – 52 – 1 (.548)
Without the spread: 77 – 39 – 0 (.664)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 8 – 5 – 0 (.615)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Houston (-3.0) @ Buffalo (+3.0)
Miami (+3.5) @ N.Y. Jets (-3.5)
N.Y. Giants (-1.0) @ Philadelphia (+1.0)
Carolina (+10.0) @ Arizona (-10.0)

THE BAD

Denver (+3.5) @ Baltimore (-3.5)
Cleveland (+13.0) @ Chicago (-13.0)
St. Louis (+4.0) @ Detroit (-4.0)
San Francisco (+13.0) @ Indianapolis (-13.0)
Seattle (+9.5) @ Dallas (-9.5)
Oakland (+16.5) @ San Diego (-16.5)

THE COULD HAVE GONE EITHER WAY/NOT MY WAY THIS WEEK:

Minnesota (+3.0) @ Green Bay (-3.0)
Atlanta (+10.5) @ New Orleans (-10.5)

THE “WHAT THE $%^@”?:

Jacksonville (+3.0) @ Tennessee (-3.0)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

SUNDAY

Green Bay (-9.5) @ Tampa Bay (+9.5)
Green Bay has had no issues beating lousy teams by double digits recently (doing so against both Cleveland and Detroit), and I expect Tampa Bay to suffer a similar fate.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

Arizona (+3.0) @ Chicago (-3.0)
I believe that Arizona is the better football team in this one, and I don’t think that being on the wrong side of a revenge game last Sunday changes that. I’ll gladly take the points, even if it is on the road.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Arizona

Kansas City (+6.5) @ Jacksonville (-6.5)
Honestly, I really don’t think the Jaguars have any business being a near-touchdown favorite to anyone after their performance last week. But losing in embarassing fashion to a winless team seems like pretty good motivation to bounce back strong at home the following week, which I expect them to do.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Jacksonville

Miami (+10.5) @ New England (-10.5)
For whatever reason, people seem to keep ignoring the fact that this Dolphins offense is very strong. New England should get the win (no repeat of last year’s trip to New England), but I expect Miami to put up a fight.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

Washington (+9.0) @ Atlanta (-9.0)
Washington has a very bad football team, but it is mainly due to their offense. I think their defense makes it hard to give up so many points; and coming off of a bye week they should be fresh. I like them to keep it within a touchdown this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

Baltimore (-3.0) @ Cincinnati (+3.0)
My head tells me it’s hard to turn down points on a home dog that is not only evenly matched but coming off of a bye and beat this team on the road a few weeks back. My gut tells me Baltimore is the play though, perhaps to get revenge for that very loss at home. I tend to go with my gut in these situations.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

Houston (+8.5) @ Indianapolis (-8.5)
Spread tells the story here. Houston has won three straight, Indy coming off of a close win over San Francisco. Books are begging you to take the Texans at this number; but I’ll stick with the Colts.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

Carolina (+13.0) @ New Orleans (-13.0)
Carolina got their revenge out of the way this week, but this is still a football team with a lot of problems. Expect those problems on both sides of the ball to be exploited by this powerhouse Saints team.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

Detroit (+10.0) @ Seattle (-10.0)
Yes, the loss to St. Louis at home was extremely embarassing. That said, what has Seattle done this year? Other than the one huge game against Jacksonville, they’ve been pushed around pretty much all season too; I can’t lay 10 points with this team.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle

San Diego (+4.5) @ N.Y. Giants (-4.5)
San Diego doesn’t tend to travel to the East Coast well, and this week they get a very angry Giants team in the midst of a losing streak. I don’t like their chances.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: N.Y. Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: N.Y. Giants

Tennessee (+4.0) @ San Francisco (-4.0)
Great to see the Titans get back in the win column last week, but I don’t think one great game solves all of your problems. San Francisco should take care of business at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco

Dallas (+3.0) @ Philadelphia (-3.0)
This should be a great game. Both teams look very evenly matched this season, but I have to take the Eagles at home, and I like their defense slightly better as well.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

MONDAY

Pittsburgh (-3.0) @ Denver (+3.0)
Maybe Pittsburgh is a trap, but in this case, I need to spring it. I’m not even on the “Denver isn’t for real” wagon, I just don’t see Big Ben and the Steelers dropping this game on a Monday Night.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 30 – 25 – 5 (.545)

COLLEGE FOOTBALL FANS: Check out the website I run with my best friend Sam,
http://www.allpac10.com! Content updated daily.
Week 10 Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A58mnWQqcXg

Kansas -2.5 (LOSS)
Oregon State +7.0 (WIN)
Oregon -7.0 (LOSS)
UL Monroe -1.0 (WIN)
Houston -1.0 (TIE)

Good Luck This Week!
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