Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Alas, it is official; I have had my first under-.500 season since starting the Dime back in 2005.

I guess it was bound to happen sooner or later.

But enough about me, something much more important is going on; the PLAYOFFS. As insane of a regular season as it has been, we should be in for some equally crazy antics in the playoffs.

Next weekend I will be in Las Vegas, which should be a blast. As for this weekend, I’ll be bringing in my 24th birthday in style (even if it is technically on Monday, but who wants to party on Monday?)

Let’s see if we can get the playoffs off on the right foot with a couple of winners this weekend. We have a bizarre situation in which we are seeing three rematches of games played last week, and all three were blowouts. Should we be ignoring those, or using them to help us this week? Interesting stuff.

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 8 – 6 – 2 (.571)
Without the spread: 10 – 6 – 0 (.625)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 2 – 2 – 0 (.500)

Season (Final)
With the spread: 123 – 126 – 7 (.494)
Without the spread: 170 – 86 – 0 (.664)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 18 – 13 – 1 (.581)

Playoffs
With the spread: 0 – 0 – 0 (N/A)
Without the spread: 0 – 0 – 0 (N/A)
OVER/UNDER: 0 – 0 – 0 (N/A)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Jacksonville (+2.0) @ Cleveland (-2.0)
Atlanta (-1.0) @ Tampa Bay (+1.0)
Indianapolis (+8.0) @ Buffalo (-8.0)
New Orleans (+7.0) @ Carolina (-7.0)
Philadelphia (+3.0) @ Dallas (-3.0)
Kansas City (+10.0) @ Denver (-10.0)
Tennessee (-6.0) @ Seattle (+6.0)
Baltimore (-10.5) @ Oakland (+10.5)

THE BAD

Chicago (-3.0) @ Detroit (+3.0)
New England (+7.0) @ Houston (-7.0) TIE
Pittsburgh (-3.0) @ Miami (+3.0)
San Francisco (-8.0) @ St. Louis (+8.0)
N.Y. Giants (+8.0) @ Minnesota (-8.0)
Green Bay (+3.0) @ Arizona (-3.0)
Washington (+3.0) @ San Diego (-3.0) TIE
Cincinnati (+9.5) @ N.Y. Jets (-9.5)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick

For those of you that don’t know what the OVER/UNDER is, bookmakers decide a number that they think will be close to the two team’s scores added together. If the bookmakers think the game will have a final score of 23 – 20, they will set the OVER/UNDER total at around 43. It is the bettor’s job to predict whether the actual score will be OVER or UNDER the projected total.

SATURDAY

#5 New York Jets (+2.5) @ #4 Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)
Plenty of fuss has been made over the fact that the Jets were gift-wrapped their berth into the playoffs with both the Colts and Bengals mailing in their games with playoff spots already locked up, but make no mistake about it, the Jets deserve to be here. Their defense is one of the best in the game, and as the Pittsburghs of the world have shown us, defense wins championships. That said, the Bengals have a strong defense too; and it gets underrated due to their reputation as an offensive team. I believe Marvin Lewis when he said that the Bengals didn’t show the Jets anything last week; that includes defensive schemes. And while this should be a great learning experience for Mark Sanchez, I’m not sure that I trust him to go into a hostile environment in the playoffs and play a mistake free game just yet. I say the Bengals take it.

While I do expect this to be a defensive battle, when an over/under is under 35, I pretty much play the over by default. All it takes is a few bounces and a big play or two to get that total over.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
OVER/UNDER 33.5: OVER

#6 Philadelphia Eagles (+4.0) @ #3 Dallas Cowboys (-4.0)
Is this the year the Cowboys FINALLY win a playoff game for the first time in over a decade? Last week’s game between these two teams obviously had a lot on the line for both teams, and the Cowboys’ defense shut down the Eagles, earning their second straight shutout against a division rival (shutting out Washington the week before). This defense is playing so lights out that it should take a lot of pressure off of Romo.

I’m a sucker for history sometimes though, and the Eagles have been one of the most consistantly strong playoff teams in the NFC for the last 10 years or so, while the Cowboys have consistantly found ways to choke away games. More important/relevant than that though, it is EXTREMELY difficult to beat an NFL team three times in one season, which is what the Cowboys will be setting out to do this week. I see them falling short again this year, but even if they don’t, four points is a gift in this spot, as it should be a great game.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Philadelphia
OVER/UNDER 45: UNDER

SUNDAY

#6 Baltimore Ravens (+3.0) @ #3 New England Patriots (-3.0)
There are a few things that stick out to me in this game. One is the obvious redemption factor for New England; after missing the playoffs despite an excellent record last year, this will be the team’s (and Tom Brady’s, specifically) first chance in the playoffs since their undefeated season fell apart in the Super Bowl game against the Giants. Not saying Baltimore won’t be extremely hungry, but New England has a HUGE chip on their shoulder, especially at home.

Secondly, who has Baltimore beaten this year? Of their nine wins, only two came against teams over .500; an overtime win against Pittsburgh in week 12, the third loss of the Steelers’ five-game losing streak that also saw losses to KC, Cle, and Oak; and a close win over San Diego in week two, who were doing their annual stumble-out-of-the-gate routine to start the season. Over half of this team’s wins have come against opponents with 5 wins or less (KC, Cle x2, Det, Oak).

Is Baltimore a good team, yes. Have they proven, this season, that they have what it takes to go into New England and beat this millenium’s best playoff team on the road? Personally, I don’t think so.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England
OVER/UNDER 43: OVER

#5 Green Bay Packers @ #4 Arizona Cardinals (Pick’em)
Ask any of my friends who listen to me ramble, and they’ll tell you for the last month or so, I’ve made it no secret that Green Bay is my sleeper pick to go all the way. They’ve got a ton of talent on both sides of the ball, and they have been steamrolling through their competition for most of the season. An easy blowout win last week should make this pick even easier.

Unfortunately, I remember too vividly how flat-out dominant the Cardinals became seemingly overnight in the playoffs last season. The offense was never in question, but the defense was electric. I thought the Eagles would have no problem beating the Cards, and I was proven quite wrong.

Will it be a different story this year? Maybe. And if the Packers win this one, I’m not so sure I’ll be picking against them again in these playoffs. But this week I have to go with the Cardinals, who are interestingly enough the only team that bettors seem comfortable betting hard against this week, as about 75% of the action in this game is on the Packers.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona
OVER/UNDER 48: UNDER

Good Luck! Looks like I’m going the other way on all three rematches this week.
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