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By Dave Consolazio, January 30, 2009 10:00 am

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”
www.davesdime.com

THE INTRO

Ah yes. The Super Bowl.

My worst enemy.

For those of you that know me, you know that I’ve got a Super Bowl Curse about me.

I can remember which team I was rooting for in the big game back to 1997, and I can tell you with certainty that no one has had a worse stretch than I have over this span; the team I have rooted for has lost 11 of the last 12 years.

The one time? When the Indianapolis Colts defeated the Chicago Bears a few years ago.

Of course, I predicted the Bears would cover the spread in the Dime; I’m 0 for 3 in my written predictions in this newsletter.

So what am I getting at with all this? Basically that I’m a jinx on Super Bowl Sunday, and no amount of analyzing this game is going to change that. It is my Achilles Heel.

So go with your gut and enjoy the game! That is what the Super Bowl is all about.

I for one will be drinking enough to make the game irrelevant.

Who am I rooting for, you ask?

Arizona. Sorry Cardinal fans.

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 1 – 1 – 0 (.500)
Without the spread: 1 – 1 (.250)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 1 – 0 – 0 (1.000)
Over/Under: 0 – 2 – 0 (.000)

Playoffs
With the spread: 5 – 5 – 0 (.500)
Without the spread: 4 – 6 (.400)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 1 – 0 – 0 (1.000)
Over/Under: 4 – 6 – 0 (.400)

Regular Season (Final)

With the spread: 130 – 119 – 6 (.522)
Without the spread: 159 – 96 – 1 (.624)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 25 – 11 – 0 (.694)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

SUNDAY

#2 Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – 4 – 0 (-6.5) VS. #4 Arizona Cardinals 12 – 7 (+6.5)

VIDEO BREAKDOWN:
My Breakdown –
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHbv4VpV8D0

Well, there isn’t much left for me to say that isn’t covered in the two video, so hopefully you get the chance to watch it. But the short story goes that I’m taking the Pittsburgh Steelers. Defense wins championships, and Pittsburgh’s defense is excellent. Remember what happened when the Oakland Raiders’ put their number one offense against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ number one defense? Last year’s invincible Patriots offense against a stout New York Giants defense? Of course offense can sometimes prevail, but more often than not, its the defense.

The media pressure is on Arizona as well. The Steelers have been here before, but more importantly, they aren’t “the story”. The story is on this Cinderella team, their history, Larry Fitzgerald (can he be stopped?), Anquan Boldin (will he be a distraction?), Kurt Warner (back in the big game), etc, etc. I believe Pittsburgh will be more focused for this game, and with an outstanding defense, they will prevail.

(For much more coverage, make sure to watch my video!)

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
OVER/UNDER 46.5: Under

Good Luck!

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

Regular Season With the Spread (Final)
Season: 64 – 63 – 1 (.504)

Bowl Games With the Spread (Final)
Season: 22 – 12 – 0 (.647)

Combined Record: 86 – 75 – 1 (.534)

Have a great weekend!
————————————————————
Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!

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By Dave Consolazio, January 29, 2009 4:00 pm

For the 2008-09 NFL playoffs, I decided to bring my predictions to youtube to compliment my long-running NFL Newsletter.

In the divisional week, I used my standard college football breakdown method of just picking a side and explaining why I liked it. For the other videos though I went more in-depth, making an argument for both sides before eventually revealing my pick.

This was a pretty popular series of videos, as they averaged around 1000 views each and sparked some good debate in the comments section (or, in many cases, just fans of the team I picked against fervently disagreeing with me).

Super Bowl: Pittsburgh Steelers VS. Arizona Cardinals

NFC Championship: Philadelphia Eagles VS. Arizona Cardinals

AFC Championship: Baltimore Ravens VS. Pittsburgh Steelers

NFL Divisional Playoffs: NFC Picks
(Philadelphia @ New York Giants, Arizona @ Carolina)

NFL Divisional Playoffs: AFC Picks
(Baltimore @ Tennessee, San Diego @ Pittsburgh)

NFL Wild Card Week: Baltimore Ravens VS. Miami Dolphins

NFL Wild Card Week: Atlanta Falcons VS. Arizona Cardinals

NFL Wild Card Week: Philadelphia Eagles VS. Minnesota Vikings

NFL Wild Card Week: Indianapolis Colts VS. San Diego Chargers

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By Dave Consolazio, January 16, 2009 10:00 am

(Unfortunately, I lost the original, and no longer have the Intro. Will update if I find a copy. I still have the game write-ups though, here they are)

#6 Baltimore Ravens 13 – 5 (+6.0) @ #2 Pittsburgh Steelers 13 – 4 (-6.0)
Hope you like defense. The AFC pits the league’s two best defenses against one another, two smash mouth physical football teams, and division rivals to boot. And I didn’t think I’d see one, especially this late in the season, but I believe we have a philosophy pick on our hands. Now granted, you could argue the spread is what it is because the Ravens did not look very good in their victory over the Titans last week. But still, 6 points? For a team that bettors love so much, a team that has been many people’s chic pick to go all the way this year? Lets look at the reasons why Baltimore +6 looks like an easy bet:

1. They are 14 – 4 against the spread this year, and have only lost 2 games by more than 4 points this season
2. They have played Pittsburgh twice this year and lost both games; by 3 and 4. It is extremely difficult to beat the same team 3 times in the same season in the NFL (which bodes well for the Ravens winning outright), and even if the Ravens do lose, why shouldn’t it be by 3 or 4 again?
3. The #1 defense VS. the #2 defense; doesn’t common sense dictate this will be a close low scoring game that will come down to a late scoring drive or FG?

It seems pretty clear to me that bookmakers WANT you to pick Baltimore this week. I for one will not oblige; and Philosophy Picks have certainly been good to me this year.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^Pittsburgh
OVER/UNDER 38: Under

#6 Philadelphia Eagles 11 – 6 – 1 (-4.0) @ #4 Arizona Cardinals 11 – 7 (+4.0)
Defense defense defense. It is hard to pick against a team like the Cardinals the way they have been rolling, but you could argue the Eagles are running just as hot. But more importantly than running hot, the Eagles are by far the best defense that the Cardinals have faced so far in these playoffs. Atlanta ranked 24th in total yards given up, and 21st in passing yards given up; Carolina was 18th in total yards and 16th in passing yards. Neither team even had a better than average defense. The Eagles? They finished 3rd in both categories. That is a huge difference. Also worth noting, the Falcons and the Cardinals rely on getting their running game going to have success; and since the Cardinals were able to stop the run, they were able to control and win the game. The Eagles DON’T need to establish the rushing game to get the pass going, meaning that even if Arizona can stop the rush, that doesn’t mean they will in turn be able to stop the pass. I have a lot of respect for the Arizona Cardinals, and they certainly have had the look of a “team of destiny” vibe to this point, but I’m going to bank on that being due to the average defenses they’ve been up against. Both defenses are playing at a high enough level to keep this game Under 47, and I believe that the better team in the Eagles prevails by 6 points or more.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
OVER/UNDER 47: Under

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By Dave Consolazio, January 9, 2009 10:00 am

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”
www.davesdime.com

THE INTRO

Maybe 2009 is going to be my year.

8 – 4 on the 12 college bowls played in 2009, and 6 – 2 on the 8 NFL picks I made this first weekend of 2009.

14 – 6 = 70% Winners!

Perhaps this is my year! Perhaps I have turned a new leaf! Perhaps my years of capping have finally paid off, and I have finally become a solid football handicapper.

Or, perhaps, I just got lucky, and it is a coincidence that a new year just happened to start.

(Damnit, why is that last perhaps so much more likely than the others?)

Oh well, no matter. I don’t care how or why I’m winning, I’m just glad that I am. Lets try and keep it up!

And P.S! My 23rd birthday is this Sunday, January 11th. So, you know, if you wanted to get rid of some of your extra toys and gadgets from the holiday season, I do accept re-gifts!

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 2 – 2 – 0 (.500)
Without the spread: 2 – 2 (.500)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 0 – 0 – 0 (N/A)
Over/Under: 4 – 0 – 0 (1.000)

Playoffs
With the spread: 2 – 2 – 0 (.500)
Without the spread: 2 – 2 (.500)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 0 – 0 – 0 (N/A)
Over/Under: 4 – 0 – 0 (1.000)

Regular Season (Final)

With the spread: 130 – 119 – 6 (.522)
Without the spread: 159 – 96 – 1 (.624)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 25 – 11 – 0 (.694)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

SATURDAY

#6 Baltimore Ravens 12 – 5 (+3.0) @ #1 Tennessee Titans 13 – 3 (-3.0)
VIDEO BREAKDOWN: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T6TEQOsIfbc

This should be a great game between two relatively evenly matched teams. Both teams have similar styles; they love to run the ball and they love to play defense. The Ravens are slightly better statistically, but playing against the Bengals and Browns twice certainly helped that. So who do you take in a game between two teams so similar in style? I’m going with the Titans. People seem to forget just how dominant this team was in the 1st half of the season, and they only let up because they had the division clinched so early. They’ve had plenty of time to rest up for the playoffs, and I expect them to come out strong. But the main reasons I like Tennessee here are home field advantage and QB play. Flacco is arguably a better QB than Collins, but Collins is a seasoned veteran that has been here before. Asking Flacco to go on the road for the second straight week in an intense playoff atmosphere and not make any mistakes just isn’t fair. I think he will make an error or two against a much tougher defense than what he faced last week, and that should tip the scales ever so slightly in the Titans favor. I like the over here simply because 34 is such a low number, and these defenses should cause some turnovers and give their offenses good field positions to work with.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee
OVER/UNDER 34: Over

#4 Arizona Cardinals 10 – 7 (+10.0) @ #2 Carolina Panthers (-10.0)
VIDEO BREAKDOWN: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9kMOgVXt1eM

Last week Arizona played very well and did some things that I didn’t see coming at all; they stopped the run and they ran the ball well. That win was likely a huge confidence booster, and any doubts about the slow end to the regular season should now be gone. Losing Boldin is needless to say a tremendous loss, but Fitzgerald and Breaston still make for a more than capable WR core. I don’t think Arizona can stop Carolina like they did Atlanta; Delhomme is an experienced QB and will not make the mistakes Ryan did. That said, I don’t think Carolina is going to shut down Arizona’s offense completely. I think Arizona can keep this game within 10 points; and if they play anything close to what they played like last week, they can keep this game VERY close.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina
OVER/UNDER 48.5: Over

SUNDAY

#6 Philadelphia Eagles 10 – 6 – 1 (+4.0) @ #1 New York Giants 12 – 4 (-4.0)
VIDEO BREAKDOWN: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9kMOgVXt1eM

Another situation a lot like the Titans; I think people have simply forgotten how good this Giants team is when it is rolling. As soon as the NFC East was locked up, the Giants were able to use Jacobs more sparingly. He won’t be 100% Sunday, but not many players are at this time of year. Certainly not the Eagles, who have been in playoff-must-win-mode for about 2 months now. The Giants should be much fresher, and they have the added incentive of avenging their home loss to the Eagles a few weeks back. Everyone seems to be picking the Eagles; do you really think the well rested defending Super Bowl champions are going to let the Eagles come into their stadium and beat them a 2nd time in a row after all this? The fact that people betting the Eagles hasn’t moved the line also tells me that the bookies likely want people betting on the Eagles, as they too believe the Giants are the pick here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New York Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Giants
OVER/UNDER 40: Over

#4 San Diego Chargers 9 – 8 (+6.0) @ #2 Pittsburgh Steelers 12 – 4 (-6.0)
VIDEO BREAKDOWN: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T6TEQOsIfbc

Statistically, the Steelers have the best defense in the league; and it isn’t even close. They are way ahead of every other team in both least amount of rushing and passing yards given up. Consider this; Darren Sproles had 328 all-purpose yards and over 100 yards rushing against Indy’s 23rd ranked rushing defense, at home, in great weather, and the Chargers only managed to put up 17 points in regulation. Now they have to travel across the country to the East coast, play in the blistering cold in a hostile stadium against a significantly better defense. Explain to me how you see San Diego scoring in this game? So strange to see the league’s best teams not getting the respect they deserve this week with these spreads. The Steelers should shut down the Chargers completely, and if they can get 14 – 17 points, that should be enough to cover the spead.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
OVER/UNDER 38: Under

Good Luck!

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

Regular Season With the Spread (Final)
Season: 64 – 63 – 1 (.504)

Bowl Games With the Spread (Final)
Season: 22 – 12 – 0 (.647)

Combined Record: 86 – 75 – 1 (.534)

Have a great weekend!
————————————————————
Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!