Comments Off

By Dave Consolazio, March 27, 2009 6:31 am

With the 2009 season fast approaching, could a World Series hangover and the decision to send young southpaw David Price to the minors lead to a slow start out of the gate for the Tampa Bay Rays?

I’d like to start off with a disclaimer: I’m not one of those people that are writing last season off as a fluke for the Rays. They were and are an excellent young team, and as they continue to improve on an individual level as well as gel as a unit, there is good reason to believe they will be a serious contender in the AL East for years to come.

As I always like to point out when I mention tailing or fading a team, I never recommend doing so blindly. Looking over a particular game’s match up, you may love the Rays at a certain price, or strongly dislike the price the books are giving you on the other side. Picking your spots is never a bad idea.

Articles like this one are just giving you an angle to consider. And with that, lets look at a few reasons why the Rays might be worth betting against in the early stages of the 2009 season.

WORLD SERIES HANGOVER

Surviving a 162-game regular season, a best-of-five wild card round, and a best-of-seven league championship series to get to the World Series takes a physical and emotional toll on a team. It is difficult for many teams, especially ones that seemingly “come out of nowhere,” to come fresh out of the gate the next season and match the same intensity and enthusiasm they had the year before.

Over the last three years, only the Boston Red Sox have made it to the World Series and then made the playoffs the following year. Colorado did not last year, Detroit and St. Louis did not in 2007, and Houston and Chicago did not in 2006.

There is more to this than just the emotional “hangover” aspect. With success comes respect; and instead of a team finding itself flying under the radar, they find themselves with a huge target on their back. Opposing teams that look at the schedule and see the Tampa Bay Rays are no longer thinking “easy win” or looking ahead to the series after it, they are instead circling that series as an important one against the defending American League Champions.

This is true of the reverse as well. As an underdog trying to prove the world wrong, it is much easier to play high energy nothing-to-lose baseball than it is as an established winner. It is a lot easier to second guess gutsy calls or stolen base attempts in games you are supposed to win as opposed to games you have no business winning.

DAVID PRICE IN TRIPLE-A: SENDING THE WRONG MESSAGE?

Unlike the Evan Longoria situation last year when the Rays were trying to save themselves an extra year until arbitration, David Price is signed through the 2012 season, so that really shouldn’t be a motivating factor here. Then again, it is hard to believe that the arbitration clock has nothing to do with it when looking at all the facts.

As the front office is explaining it, they want to closely monitor Price’s innings and pitch count this season, and allow him some more time to develop in the minors.

Interesting. Couldn’t they monitor his innings and pitch count in the big leagues?

Last season in the regular season, Price appeared in five games, pitching in 14 innings. He had a 1.93 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and 12 strikeouts. In the postseason he pitched 5.2 innings with a 1.59 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, eight strikeouts, a win, and a save.

In 8.1 innings pitched this spring, he continued where he left off last year, allowing only one run and striking out 10. Price was the first overall pick in 2007, and is the top ranked pitching prospect in baseball as well as the 2008 Minor League Player of the Year.

It is a very difficult sell to try and convince anyone that this guy doesn’t deserve to be in the majors right now, especially after the impact he had on the team in the playoffs last season. Whether the front office is really this anal about his delivery and development or if they are just trying to save themselves some money down the line is irrelevant to me; I’m looking at what effect this move could potentially have on the players on the active roster.

And no matter what the front office or the manager was telling me, if I was a player on the Rays I’d be extremely upset. The front office is coming outright and saying, “This move is for our success long-term.” But what about the present? Stuck in the toughest division in baseball with two of the league’s juggernauts, Tampa Bay needs to put their best players out there every single night to have a chance to stay alive in this race. Taking a player of this caliber away from a team for the sake of the future sends the message that you are conceding the present, whether that is actually true or not.

As a player, having in the back of your mind the fact that ownership does not believe that this team can win right now on top of not having a teammate that you know would give you a better chance to win with you might have some adverse affect on you. Even if these thoughts are buried deep in the back of a player’s mind, they can still cause tension in the locker room and mistakes on the field.

VALUE

When a new season is just beginning, bookmakers have limited information to set lines on, and public perception can factor in as well. Due to Tampa Bay’s success last year and the public’s new found respect for them, when they find themselves playing against teams not named the Yankees and Red Sox, they will likely find themselves getting unfavorable money line and run line numbers. Finding good numbers on the other side shouldn’t be too rare of an occurrence.

FINAL THOUGHTS

The Tampa Bay Rays have a great baseball team full of plenty of young players with their best years still ahead of them. They shouldn’t be taken lightly at any point next season, not even the early stages that I’ve highlighted here.

That said, even the best teams in the league aren’t immune to getting rattled or having bad stretches over the course of a long season, and this is even truer of a team as young as the Rays are. My hunch is that this will be exactly what happens to start off 2009, and fading the Rays will be a profitable affair in April and maybe part of May as well.

(http://sbrforum.com/Betting+Articles/MLB/10640/fade-tampa-bay-rays-april.aspx)

Comments Off

By Dave Consolazio, March 26, 2009 10:55 am

Unlike a recent article here at SBR that included the Stars and Kings in the Western Conference playoff hunt, Vegas Dave is taking no Chance’s on those NHL also-rans.

Chance Harper did a piece on injury woes in the Western Conference and the effects they had on the playoff race keying on the Minnesota Wild, Dallas Stars, and Los Angeles Kings. This made me chuckle as the Kings are all but a mathematical certainty to miss the playoffs at this point – a 9-0 finish would give them under a 50% chance of making it in – and the Stars are all but an afterthought as well.

Here’s my take on the Western Conference’s playoff race, focusing on teams that are actually relevant.

SportsClubStats.com is a pretty neat site that simulates the remainder of the season millions of times and spits out percentages on each team’s chances of making the playoffs. Nothing too scientific, but I’ve included these percentages in this article as a frame of reference.

LOOKING GOOD

6. Columbus Blue Jackets (83 points)
Games Remaining: 9 (Cgy, @StL, StL, Nsh, @Nsh, Chi, @Chi, @StL, Min)
Home/Away: 5 Home, 4 Away
Sportsclubstats.com %: 94.2

Funny what a little defense can do. Ken Hitchcock was brought on board during the 2006-07 season to turn this team around, and turn it around he has. Preaching a tough physical game and defensive responsibility, the pieces finally fell together this season for the Blue Jackets, who are 9th in the league in GAA (2.70), and 5th in the league in shots against. Excellent goaltending from rookie Steve Mason has led to the Blue Jackets’ surprise success this season. Mason leads the league in shutouts with 9, and is 2nd only to Boston’s Tim Thomas in goals against.

Even with the explosive Rick Nash at the helm, the offense is a serious concern for the Jackets (including the league’s worst power play), and will likely keep them from advancing past the first round in the playoffs. With a 5 point cushion and 6 of their remaining 9 games against teams on the outside looking in, it looks like the Blue Jackets will definitely make the playoffs this year; a feat they have never accomplished. They have already had a historic season in clinching their first winning record in franchise history.

7. Anaheim Ducks (80 points)
Games Remaining: 8 (Edm, Col, @Edm, @Van, @SJ, SJ, Dal, @Phx)
Home/Away: 4 Home, 4 Away
Sportsclubstats.com %: 66.3

The Ducks have certainly found a good time to get hot, winning 5 straight games to go from long shots to favorites to make it into the playoffs this year. Led by a solid mix of bright young stars in Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, and Bobby Ryan and seasoned veterans like Scott Niedermayer, Chris Pronger, and Teemu Selanne, this team is clicking and they certainly know from experience how to step their level of play up for big games. Goaltender Jonas Hiller has done an outstanding job keeping the ducks afloat when JS Giguere has not been able.

Playing some of their best hockey of the year and having arguably the easiest schedule of the remaining playoff hopefuls, the Ducks look poised to earn a playoff berth for the 4th straight year.

ONLY ONE SPOT LEFT

8. Edmonton Oilers (79 points)
Games Remaining: 9 (@Phx, @Ana, Min, Ana, SJ, Van, LA, Cgy, Cgy)
Home/Away: 6 Home, 3 Away
Sportsclubstats.com %: 52.1

Looking at Edmonton’s team statistics, it is hard to figure out how they are in a playoff spot at all. The Oilers are ranked 16th in goals for (2.78), 22nd in goals against (2.99), 22nd in power play scoring % (16.9%), 27th on the penalty kill (77.0%), 29th in shots for per game (27.8), and 25th in shots against per game (32.5). While stats can certainly be deceiving and can’t measure things like timely “clutch” goals and saves, it is hard to look at these numbers and be all too enthusiastic about the Oilers’ chances.

Usually a very fast and strong skating team that produces plenty of offense, the Oilers really haven’t looked it this season. Acquiring Patrick O’Sullivan for Erik Cole was a great trade on paper (and likely long term), but O’Sullivan has had trouble adapting to Edmonton’s system and hasn’t done much on offense despite getting plenty of top-6 minutes. With two “easy” games left on the schedule (Phoenix and Los Angeles), the Oilers may very well outlast the teams knocking on the door; but I believe there are better teams behind them.

9. Nashville Predators (78 points)
Games Remaining: 9 (SJ, LA, @Det, @Clb, @Chi, Clb, Chi, @Det, @Min)
Home/Away: 4 Home, 5 Away
Sportsclubstats.com %: 25.8

Year in and year out, coach Barry Trotz finds a way to get the most out of his players and keep them competitive, regardless of how many players are injured or lost to free agency. Losing many of his top forwards over the last couple of years to both, Trotz has geared the team towards playing defense. The Predators are eighth in the league in GAA and third-best on the penalty kill, led by the surprising goaltending of Pekke Rinne, a towering 6-5 goaltender with the flexibility of a much smaller one. Rinne’s combination of size, speed, and good positioning have earned him the league’s third-best goals against average and fourth-best save percentage.

But is great goaltending and defense going to be enough to separate from this pack with such a quiet offense? I don’t believe so; Minnesota has a similar team makeup, but their defensive play and special teams is even better. Nashville will likely stay competitive down the stretch, but it will take some surprising wins over some tough teams to earn them a spot.

10. Minnesota Wild (78 points)
Games Remaining: 8 (@Cgy, @Edm, Van, Cgy, @Det, Dal, Nsh, @Clb)
Home/Away: 4 Home, 4 Away
Sportsclubstats.com %: 31.8

Minnesota has two things going for them; one of the league’s best defensive systems, and the return of one of the league’s dominant forwards.

Losing leading scorer Mikko Koivu was certainly a tremendous blow to a team already devoid of much offense, but the timely return from injury of all-star Marian Gaborik certainly helps lessen the blow. Gaborik is one of those players that is a legitimate threat to score a goal every time he is on the ice; something Minnesota has been lacking all season. The emotional boost that comes with getting a player of his caliber back just in time to make an impact in the playoff race certainly doesn’t hurt, either.

This team is tops in the league in defense year after year. Signing goaltender Niklas Backstrom to a multi-year extension was a wise move by the front office, as he has solidified the net for this team for the last three years. Minnesota is second in the league in goals against, and second in the league on the penalty kill. And despite their poor offense, they are still above average with the extra attacker, scoring on just under one in every five power plays.

In the post-lockout NHL, shutdown defense alone isn’t enough to go all the way; you need some offense to go with it. But one of the league’s absolute best defenses with great special teams has a good shot at making the playoffs, and should have some pretty tempting prices on most of their remaining games.

MAYBE NEXT YEAR

11. St. Louis Blues (77 points)
Games Remaining: 9
Home/Away: 3 Home, 6 Away
Sportsclubstats.com %: 23.4

Sitting right in the thick of things at the trade deadline, the Blues had to make a choice; trade some picks and prospects to go get some players to put them over the top and make them a real contender, or trade veteran players for picks and prospects to look ahead to the future. The Blues did not make a choice, and the trade deadline quietly passed, leaving them a long shot to make the playoffs and without any extra assets to show for it.

12. Dallas Stars (74 points)
Games Remaining: 9
Home/Away: 4 Home, 5 Away
Sportsclubstats.com %: 6.4

Plagued by injuries to key players like Sergei Zubov and Brad Richards, as well as wildly inconsistent play across the board, this season has just been a mess for the Dallas Stars. With the Los Angeles Kings and Phoenix Coyotes making strides to get younger and better over the last few years, the Stars are going to be in need of a full rebuild in the near future.

BETTING OPPORTUNITIES

As far as futures go, I’d consider putting a bit down on the Stanley Cup win for the Anaheim Ducks and the Minnesota Wild. I don’t actually think either team will win the Cup, but 5Dimes has Anaheim at +5000 and The Greek has Minnesota at +7250.

With Anaheim’s recent playoff success and confidence, a first round upset wouldn’t be out of the question, especially against a team like the Sharks, who have a ton of pressure on them and have had plenty of recent issues in the playoffs. Having a team in the quarterfinals at +5000 should make it easy to hedge out a bit of profit.

As for the Wild, they have a realistic chance of making the playoffs, which makes the +7250 a great price. They are almost certain to lose in the first round, but once again, hedging out a profit with a +7250 ticket in your pocket should be manageable.

As for individual games down the stretch, I’d stay away from betting the Ducks, as their recent hot streak has caught everyone’s attention and their odds won’t be very advantageous. I wouldn’t consider blindly betting or fading any team, but keep an eye on Edmonton and Minnesota. The numbers will likely be right to bet against Edmonton and bet for Minnesota as the season winds down.

But no matter what you bet, enjoy the hockey down the stretch! And don’t go quoting Chance Harper around your friends and mentioning the Los Angeles Kings and playoffs in the same sentence.

(http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting%20Articles/NHL/10631/minnesota-wild-good-bet-surprise-west-playoff-push.aspx)

Comments Off

By Dave Consolazio, March 2, 2009 7:54 pm

In what should be no surprise to anyone in the sports world, the New York Yankees find themselves the favorite to win it all heading into the new season. But will this be the year that they break the slump?

Projected Lineup and Rotation (per www.cbssports.com)

Lineup:

1. Johnny Damon (LF)
2. Derek Jeter (SS)
3. Mark Teixeira (1B)
4. Alex Rodriguez (3B)
5. Jorge Posada (C)
6. Hideki Matsui (DH)
7. Xavier Nady (RF)
8. Robinson Cano (2B)
9. Melky Cabrera (CF)

*Nick Swisher will alternate in as well.

Rotation:

1. CC Sabathia
2. A.J Burnett
3. Chien-Ming Wang
4. Andy Pettitte
5. Joba Chamberlain

A few names change here and there, but this year’s Yankee lineup has the exact same effect on me that it does every year; it makes my jaw drop to the floor in awe. The term “not fair” comes to mind. Guys like Xavier Nady and Nick Swisher, heart of the order type of guys for the Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago White Sox respectively, now find themselves fighting for a spot in the bottom of this order. If Posada and Matsui can stay healthy, they round out a downright lethal top 6, and even if they can’t, the Yankees will certainly have options to fill those holes. I don’t really need to go into much detail on this offense, do I? It speaks for itself.

The issue for the Yankees has not been the lineup for quite some time. Yes it will have the occasional dry spell like any other team, sometimes in untimely places such as the playoffs, but you can’t really assemble much better of a lineup then the one the New York Yankees have. The focus, and the make or break aspect to the Yankees season, is once again the success of the starting pitching.

(Wait a second Dave! You can’t just move on to talking about pitching without weighing in on the Alex Rodriguez scandal!)

Right, of course. Because you really need another take on this? I’m going to spare you the page long babble for two reasons.
1. Nothing I say, no opinion I could possibly have, could be anything that you haven’t already read or heard, seeing as everyone and their uncle has already beaten the topic to death.
2. He is Alex Rodriguez. He is the best hitter of this generation. He lives and breathes controversy and media scrutiny. He will not be adversely affected by all this, and if he stays healthy, he will put up the same superhuman numbers he has every other year in his incredible career.

So now that we’ve got that out of the way, can we move on to pitching?

In CC Sabathia, the Yankees finally have the true ace they have been lacking over the last few years. They finally have a guy that they can send to the mound against the other team’s best and expect a win every time. No slight on Mike Mussina or Chien-Ming Wang or Kevin Brown (okay, maybe a bit of a slight on Kevin Brown), these aren’t the guys you want to be sending to the mound in a game 1 or a game 7 against your opponents ace. Even though Sabathia’s numbers will very likely take a dip from his stint with the Brewers, I still have little doubt that he can be counted on in key spots for the entire season if healthy.

But this is where the “sure thing” list ends. In Burnett you have a dynamic pitcher that can be flat out overpowering, but the injury risk is always there. Burnett is no stranger to the disabled list, Pitching over 175 innings only 3 times in his 10 season career. Last season went without any problems as he logged 221.1 innings; but if he manages to pitch 200 innings this season, it will be the first time ever in his career that he has done so in back to back seasons.

Chien-Ming Wang has been extremely consistent in his time with the Yankees and gives them a chance to win just about every time he hits the mound with his excellent sinker ball. But after missing most of last year with a foot injury, it isn’t a sure thing that the injury won’t linger, or that it won’t have any mental effects on the mound.

Andy Pettitte is still a serviceable option, but last year’s 4.54 ERA (his 3rd straight year with an ERA over 4.00) isn’t going to strike fear into opposing batters, and at 36 (turning 37 in June) he isn’t a likely candidate to show much improvement this year. Last season he pitched through a sore shoulder; how much longer can his body and his arm hold up?

Which brings us to the young guys. Joba Chamberlain emerged as an elite set-up man before making the switch to starting pitcher, where he pitched very well. But is he ready for a fulltime spot? Last year the Yankees leaned too heavily on a pair of young arms in Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy to disastrous results. Chamberlain seems ready to be a star, but you can’t just pencil him in as an ace until he’s proven he can be one over the course of a season. And when (not if, when) the injury bug starts plaguing the middle of the rotation, will Phil Hughes be ready to start meeting his potential?

I actually believe that Phil Hughes could potentially have a big year this year. The kid has way too much talent to be held down for long, and it wouldn’t be the first time in baseball history that a young talented pitcher got off to a rough start in the big leagues and then turned things around.

The point of bringing up all these questions in the Yankees rotation isn’t to try and convince you that this isn’t the team to beat, because it most certainly is. The batting order is lethal, and this rotation as well as a solid bullpen led by Mariano Rivera and Damaso Marte should do just fine in giving this offense a chance to win night in and night out.

What it should convince you of is to try to stay away from the futures on this team. The Greek (www.thegreek.com) has the Yankees going off at +360 to win it all and the over/under on regular season wins is set at 97.5 (Over +105, Under -125). The question marks in the rotation as well as the injury risks across the board, the rigors of a 162 game season in arguably the toughest division in baseball, followed by a best-of-5 series in the playoffs where a few bounces can decide your season make it awfully hard for me to find value in the +360 to win it all.

These same factors make it hard for me to consider the over 97.5 wins, too, as a lot of things have to fall just right to win 98 games in this league. This team is plenty good enough though, which dissuades me from taking the under as well; but if I had to make a play, the under would be the side I’d take.

On the spot prediction: 96 to 100 wins, win the AL East.

(http://vegasdave.mysbrforum.com/blog/2433-vegas-dave-s-mlb-season-previews-new-york-yankees.html)