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By Dave Consolazio, April 27, 2009 12:00 pm

With 256 draft picks now in the books, all we have to look forward to is the start of the NFL season. Which teams gave themselves the best chance to be a “surprise team” early in 2009? Teams like the New England Patriots, New York Giants, and Pittsburgh Steelers have proven year in and year out that they know what the draft is all about, and their success won’t catch anyone off guard. But whose draft will?

I have three that you should at the very least keep your eyes open for.

Oakland Raiders, 5-11-0 moneyline, 7-9-0 ATS

I know, you just rolled your eyes. While the public scrutiny on the Raiders has always been tough, it has gotten to a point where it is flat out ridiculous. The hatred and ridicule of this team has gotten so bad that you can almost expect 2 to 3 points on the spread in your favor every single time you bet the Raiders because people hate them so much they will fade them at any cost.

Let’s put aside for a second how much of a “reach” certain players were, how embarrassing Oakland is, how much of a senile old man Al Davis is. What’s done is done. And while it may not have been the best run draft by a long shot, the truth is that the Raiders added some key pieces to a very raw and very talented offense.

Vastly underrated QB Jamarcus Russell (one of the magnets to all this hate) managed a 13 to 8 TD to INT ratio last year despite having one of (if not the) worst WR cores in the league and playing in his first full season and going through a coaching change in the middle of it. How you get labeled a bust through all that is beyond me. Behind him he has an excellent RB core including Darren McFadden and Michael Bush, and Zach Miller and Johnny Lee Higgins emerged through the darkness last year as well. This raw young offense has had a year to play together and develop, and it should pay huge dividends, as they showed flashes of what they were capable of in late wins over Houston and Tampa Bay last season.

Hate him or not, Darrius Heyward-Bey does have the tools to be a weapon, even if he wasn’t the “right” pick. Fourth round pick WR Louis Murphy out of Florida can step in right away as well. Sixth round pick TE Brandon Myers will help with run blocking, and out of a two TE system allow for Zach Miller to run more routes.

Not that this article is going to change any Raider-Haters mind. But whether you choose to ignore it or not, this team does have a wealth of young talent and will get the extra betting edge almost every single time they play due to public perception against them. Don’t be one of the sheep that blindly hates them, this might be the year they make you pay for it ATS.

Cincinnati Bengals, 4-11-1 moneyline, 7-9 ATS

This team fought a lot harder then their record would indicate last season, but they just didn’t have the talent to keep up with most teams. A healthy Carson Palmer is the key to any success that the Bengals may have next season; and they wisely passed on Michael Crabtree and made the right choice in drafting OT Andre Smith in the first round, taking a step towards protecting their most prized asset.

Acquisitions of LB Ray Maualuga and DE Michael Johnson should make an impact immediately. Both are extremely quick and have an uncanny ability to get to the opposing team’s quarterback. Both of these guys should force plenty of mistakes, and with the drafting of punter Kevin Huber planting team’s deep in their own zone, they will get plenty of chances.

TE Chase Coffman would have been drafted higher had he not had a foot injury, and he has great hands and size at the position. He should also prove to be a valuable weapon to Carson Palmer.

All and all, it was very quietly a solid draft by the Bengals. They used their first pick to get a guy to protect Palmer, and their second and third pick to add some speed and killer instinct to the defense. Coach Marvin Lewis should have fun with these guys, and the Bengals could very easily take a big step back towards respectability this season, and you can make money on it while everyone else is worried about what will be printed on the back of Chad Johnson’s jersey.

Jacksonville Jaguars, 5-11-0 moneyline, 4-12 ATS

It seems like forever ago that we were considering this team a Super Bowl sleeper and the type of team that matched up well enough to potentially beat the undefeated Patriots, doesn’t it? But it wasn’t that long ago.

A massive fall from grace is going to happen when a smash mouth team loses 3 of its 4 starting offensive linemen to injury to start the season. Less time in the pocket meant less effectiveness for QB David Gerrard, and less holes to run through make it harder for the running game to move the chains.

Many panic-mode type of teams would have used high draft picks on say a wide receiver, but the Jaguars know what they are and know what leads them to success. Back to back offensive lineman picks in Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton helps them get back on track on the line right away.

On defense, the Jaguars gave opposing quarterbacks way too much time to throw, and had trouble covering the long ball. Using their two third round picks on DE Terrance Knighton and CB Derek Cox addressed both of those holes

And then after shoring up their offensive line and defensive needs, Jacksonville went bargain hunting on wide receivers, adding Arizona’s Mike Thomas, Rice’s Jarett Dillard, and Rutgers Tiquan Underwood. They also added speedy TE Zach Miller (no, not the Raider guy, but it may get awfully confusing someday). My money is on Dillard, but all three of these guys showed flashes of brilliance at the collegiate level, and if any one of them develops into a reliable WR it will cap off what looks to me like a very successful draft.

Unlike the Bengals and Raiders, this team was actually good in very recent history, so we may not be able to catch the bookmakers or the public sleeping on these guys. But I’d still circle their games on my schedule early in the season just in case, because the resurgence of the offensive line may be all this team needs to get back in the playoff hunt.

(And as for those of you wondering where the New York Jets piece is? That is exactly the problem. While their draft certainly had merit, it has been so widely praised and blown up in the media that I don’t believe we will catch many favorable lines next year; in fact, the exact opposite).

(http://sbrforum.com/Free+Picks/NFL/10901/nfl-draft-review-bad-teams-might-get-better.aspx)

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By Dave Consolazio, April 17, 2009 9:48 am

From start to finish in the regular season, the San Jose Sharks and Detroit Red Wings looked a tier above all others. But now the real test begins; will the two juggernauts advance to the Western Semifinals?

For some teams, the regular season was a mere formality, an afterthought before the season even began with a playoff berth a total certainty. For others, the spot was hard-earned and bitterly fought for to the very end, overcoming adversity and doubt along the way.

But how they got here is no longer relevant. The West has been narrowed down to eight teams, and it will soon be narrowed down to four. Who will be moving on, and where should we be getting our money down?

#1 San Jose Sharks (-280) VS. #8 Anaheim Ducks (+230)
Of all the teams fighting for the final available playoff spots down the stretch, the Anaheim Ducks were just about the worst possible first round opponent the Sharks could have drawn.

Unlike the Blues and Blue Jackets who are simply happy to be in the playoffs, the Ducks have had great postseason success in recent years. While this is certainly a different team than the one that won the cup a few years ago, it has many of the same key players; and they believe in each other and know what they are capable of.

The Sharks were undoubtedly the best team in the NHL this year. On paper very few teams can compare, and the same held true on the ice as the Sharks went on to win the President’s Trophy (awarded to the team with the NHL’s best record) despite multiple injuries to key players throughout the year. No team was more dominant than San Jose at home, where they were 32-5-4.

Of course, it figures that they would draw a team that’s record ranks in the Top 5 in the league at home. It also figures they would draw a team that has made two trips to the Stanley Cup Finals in the last six years and won a cup, as opposed to the Blues or Blue Jackets; the Blue Jackets in their first year in the playoffs ever, and the Blues haven’t been to the finals since 1970.

All of the pressure is on this Sharks team. There is no way that their recent playoff woes aren’t on their minds, and that they aren’t (even if they’d never admit it) intimidated by the Ducks, their recent hot streak and their playoff success. The Sharks are the better team, there is no doubt about that. But can they stay out of their own heads long enough to play focused hockey and beat a tough division rival?

In the end, I lean yes; there are too many veterans on this team that have worked too hard to let this team completely lose its composure after coming this far. This should be a very physical and emotionally draining series, and it is hard to imagine it ending in less than six games. While I side with the Sharks in the end, they are 100% unbettable at -280, and it is impossible to turn the Ducks down at the price they are getting, considering it may all come down to a couple of bounces.

PREDICTION: San Jose in 7

SERIES BET: Anaheim to win series at anything over +200

#2 Detroit Red Wings (-525) VS. #7 Columbus Blue Jackets (+405)
Not to be rude, but the Columbus Blue Jackets have already won their Stanley Cup; they made the playoffs.

I could break this series down in depth, point out all the things that Columbus does well and the holes in Detroit’s defense, but I just can’t see any of it mattering. Playoff experience alone could win this series for the Wings; the best offense in the league isn’t going to hurt, either.

Quite simply, the Red Wings are going to win this series. No one can blame you if you want to take a stab on the +400 though; we’ve played this story out before. In 2006, no one gave the No. 8 seed Edmonton Oilers any chance, and then went on to win the series 4-2. In 2003, no one gave the #7 Anaheim Mighty Ducks a chance, and they swept the No. 2 Wings. Two years before that, a lowly No. 7 Kings team beat the Wings 4-2 as well.

The Red Wings overlooking a weaker opponent and having a big letdown? Certainly would be déjà vu all over again. But don’t get your hopes up.

PREDICTION: Detroit in 5

SERIES BET: Small play on Columbus to win series at over +400

#3 Vancouver Canucks (-220) VS. #6 St. Louis Blues (+190)
With the Anaheim Ducks and Columbus Blue Jackets looking comfortable holding down two of the three at-large playoff spots in the West with about 10 games to go in the season, one final spot was up for grabs for the Edmonton Oilers, Nashville Predators, and Minnesota Wild.

Or so it seemed. The St. Louis Blues refused to be an afterthought, winning 5 straight to get right back into the thick of things. A 9-1-1 run to end the season brought the Blues all the way up to the No. 6 spot.

Unfortunately for the Blues, the team they ran into hasn’t exactly been cold. Since February, the Canucks have gone 22-7-2, claiming the division crown from the Calgary Flames in the process. With the league’s seventh best goals against average and 11th best offense, the Canucks are extremely well rounded, which could lead to success in these playoffs. Did I mention that they have arguably the best goaltender in hockey as well?

All year long, the Sharks and the Red Wings have been getting all of the attention in the West. Then the Flames go out and trade for Olli Jokinen, and everyone starts raving about how they now might be able to compete against the “Top 2.” Everyone loves the young Blackhawks, feels good for the Blue Jackets for finally making the playoffs, and respects the Ducks and Blues for battling it out for those last few spots.

But what about the Vancouver Canucks? I can’t for the life of me remember a team so quietly putting together such a great hot streak and winning their division. Make no mistake about it, this team is very real, and they are going to be a lot harder to ignore when they prove it against the Blues.

PREDICTION: Vancouver in 5

SERIES BET: Vancouver to win series at anything under -300

#4 Chicago Blackhawks (-170) VS. #5 Calgary Flames (+145)
I’m just going to go ahead and say it. Some people may not want to hear it, some people may disagree adamantly with me, but here it is; the Calgary Flames are overrated.

The trade to acquire Jokinen automatically catapulted the Flames to an insane level of respectability. The trade was widely considered to be the trade that put the Flames over the top and made them a serious Cup contender. But are we really going to ignore some key facts?

1. Mikka Kiprusoff isn’t what he used to be.
When I see the name Kiprusoff, I immediately think one of the best goaltenders in the NHL. And he did lead the league in wins this year, which credits this train of thought. It might surprise you to know that Kiprusoff’s GAA and SV% both ranked out of the Top 30 among all goalies. Sure, stats aren’t everything, but Kiprusoff hasn’t been so far away from the top in a while. An excellent Blackhawks offense and a very beat up defensive corps certainly aren’t going to make things better, either.

2. The Flames are slumping.
Since March, the Flames ended the season with a 9-12-0 record, looking largely out of sync while giving up their big division lead to the Canucks.

3. They can’t win on the road!
The Flames had a losing record on the road this year at 19-20-2. Considering that the Blackhawks have home ice advantage (and also happen to be in the Top 5 in the NHL on the road at 22-15-4), this creates a pretty big problem.

4. The Blackhawks are the better team.
Chicago ranked fourth in the league in scoring to Calgary’s 8th. Much more alarmingly, Chicago ranked 5th in the league in goals against (with two reliable goalies in Khabibulin and Huet) to Calgary’s 23rd. Calgary averaged giving up almost a half a goal more per game. Throwing rankings aside, look no further than the regular season series between these two teams; the Blackhawks won all four times they faced each other, including three wins by a three+ goal margin!

I know what some of you are thinking. That was the regular season, this is the playoffs, none of that matters anymore. Keep telling yourself that. Every single fact leads to Chicago being the right choice here; don’t buy the whole “they are too young” bit. Their age and inexperience may factor in as the playoffs wear on, but they can handle this series.

PREDICTION: Chicago in 6

SERIES BET: Chicago to win series at anything under -200

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By Dave Consolazio, April 16, 2009 8:21 am

The Bruins owned the East during the regular season, but all records return to 0-0 now. What four teams will take the next step towards Lord Stanley’s Cup, and what four will go home?

There is no greater trophy in professional sports than the Stanley Cup, and there is no greater postseason than the National Hockey League’s. These are facts, not opinions. Hockey fans know these facts to be true, some casual fans have come to accept them, and others are simply in denial.

No matter what category you fall into, me writing pages upon pages about how incredible the intensity of this amazing sport is in the playoffs won’t do me any good. For those of you that already know, I’d just be preaching to the choir. For those of you that don’t, well, words simply don’t do it justice. Make sure you watch some games this postseason.

Lets get to the good part, trying to predict the unpredictable, and trying to find betting value in the process.

#1 Boston Bruins (-320) VS. #8 Montreal Canadians (+260)
It is very interesting that both one vs. eight seed matchups mirror each other in the sense that recent playoff history strongly favors the eight seed, but regular season play of course favors the one seed. Over the last seven years the Boston Bruins have met the Montreal Canadians in the playoffs three times (07-08, 03-04, 01-02), and all three times the Bruins have been defeated. There is no question that the Boston Bruins are aware of this; the media certainly won’t let them forget.

But is it really so shocking in such a storied rivalry that a team could win three straight series against a bitter rival? Has everyone forgotten that before this stretch, the four meetings between these two teams in the playoffs had all gone the Bruins’ way?

Yes, the early 90’s are ancient history. But this decade will be too, someday. The Boston Bruins are a substantially better team 5-on-5, both in goal scoring and in physical play. Carey Price, while undoubtedly a good young goaltender with a bright future ahead of him, has not looked sharp at all this season (31st in the league in GAA and SV%), while Tim Thomas has been the absolute best in the game (1st in the league in GAA and SV%). As if the evidence wasn’t overwhelming enough, the Canadians have lost defenseman Andrei Markov to injury for at least the first 4-5 games of this series. Markov was the team’s second leading scorer and the foundation of their team, leading the team in ice time and quarterbacking the power play.

The Bruins don’t need to look any further than their backyard to the Red Sox for a reminder that curses come to an end. You are getting the substantially better team here that won the season series 5-0-1 at a discounted price due to superstition. I liked this series price at -400, but the Habs faithful (unsurprisingly) have brought the price down substantially, and this is a series well worth eating the chalk on.

PREDICTION: Boston in 5

BEST BET: Boston to win the series at anything under -400

#2 Washington Capitals (-230) VS. #7 New York Rangers (+190)
This is a true battle of clashing styles; the flashy offense of the Washington Capitals VS. the stingy defense of the New York Rangers. Each team’s strength is the other team’s weakness; the Capitals did a below average job keeping the puck out of their own net during the regular season, and the Rangers were a pitiful 28th out of 30 in scoring.

So who wins when two teams on the opposite side of the spectrum meet? The easy answer would be the Capitals; they did have the better record during the regular season, and their defensive stats aren’t nearly as poor as the Rangers’ offensive stats. But is it really as easy as just looking at league rankings in a few key stats? Of course not.

I actually believe that the Rangers are the team better built for the playoffs. While a great offense can sometimes overrule lackluster defense and goaltending, when the playoffs roll around, these high powered teams often run into a stone wall type of defense and goaltender and get shut down. Granted, the Rangers offense is going to have to pitch in; but unless Jose Theodore miraculously finds his form from years ago, this doesn’t seem all that unlikely.

Playoff experience heavily favors the Rangers as well, and while their offense may have been terrible during the regular season, it is hard to imagine playoff veterans like Chris Drury and Scott Gomez being kept quiet in the playoffs.

In the end, it will simply come down to which team is able to control the tempo of the series. If Alexander Ovechkin can lead his offense to open up the game and create a fast paced run-and-gun style, there is no way that the Rangers will be able to keep up. If the Rangers can find a way to slow the game down and put the emphasis on puck possession and defense, it will be Washington that looks outclassed. While Washington does deserve the edge (and the home ice advantage that they have earned), I put this series a lot closer to 50/50 than this series price does. Sharp bettors have been pounding the Rangers, and their price keeps falling, but there is still value to be had.

PREDICTION: New York in 6

BEST BET: New York to win series at anything over +150

#3 New Jersey Devils (-135) VS. #6 Carolina Hurricanes (+115)

When Martin Brodeur was injured earlier this season, many wrote the Devils off; but soon came to regret it. With Patrick Elias and Zach Parise leading the way, the new-look offensively talented Devils dominated the Eastern Conference with only the Bruins faring any better. When Brodeur returned, the winning continued as Brodeur went 8-1 in his first nine games back, becoming the NHL’s all-time leader in wins by a goaltender in the process.

And then for some unexplainable reason, the wheels fell off. From March 18 to April 1, the Devils went 1-6-1, losing the No. 2 seed in the East in the process. Since the skid New Jersey has recovered a bit, winning four of their last five games, but they haven’t really convinced anyone that they have completely righted the ship.

Carolina on the other hand has been taking big strides in the right direction. Through a 3-way deal involving the Los Angeles Kings and Edmonton Oilers, the Hurricanes traded injured star Justin Williams to receive unrestricted free agent to be Erik Cole. On paper the trade looked like nothing more than a desperation move, trading away a proven 30-goal scorer who was under contract for two more years for a guy struggling in Edmonton, hoping to re-kindle the magic from the team that made the Cup run in 2006.

And re-kindle it did. Since Erik Cole’s return to the lineup the Hurricanes are 12-3-2. Cole’s 15 points in 17 games has also sparked Carolina’s franchise player Eric Staal. While the team’s improved play can’t all be put on Cole’s shoulders, there is little question that his presence on and off the ice has the Hurricanes feeling like that Stanley Cup team again.

Will the Devils and the greatest goaltender of all time simply “turn it on” for the playoffs, or will the hot team prevail? It really is a very evenly matched series, so it is easy to argue the value is in Carolina on the +side of things. But in the end, when I look at a this Devils team on paper, I just can’t believe they are going to roll over in the first round. I wouldn’t bet them against a hot Carolina team, but I do think they pull it off in a tough one.

PREDICTION: New Jersey in 7

BEST BET: None

#4 Pittsburgh Penguins (-165) VS. #5 Philadelphia Flyers (+140)
This series should just be a joy to watch. A rematch of last year’s Eastern Conference Championship game, one of these teams will be going home a lot earlier this year. These teams hate each other, and in the playoffs when everything is magnified, it is going to be an ugly, physical series.

Both teams have explosive offenses and average goaltending; in fact, on top of finishing the regular season with identical point totals, the Penguins and Flyers were also remarkably similar in goals for and goals against, with Philadelphia recording 3.17 goals for and 2.83 goals against to Pittsburgh’s 3.15 goals for and 2.84 goals against.

Philadelpia’s attack is incredibly deep, throwing six 25+ goal scorers at you in Joffrey Lupul, Mike Knuble, Jeff Carter, Mike Richards, Simon Gagne, and Scott Hartnell; the latter four notching 30+ this season. And this list doesn’t even include Daniel Briere, who would have easily been a member of this club had he played a full season. But he is back in the lineup now, and rounds off an absolutely lethal offense.

Of course, Pittsburgh does have two of the league’s top three scorers in Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby. Adding Chris Kunitz and Bill Guerin at the deadline just gave the Penguins even more talent to utilize their franchise centers with. With Jordan Staal centering the third line, the Penguins are virtually unstoppable up the middle three lines deep.

In what promises to be a great and potentially high scoring series, I have to give the edge to the Pittsburgh Penguins. Under head coach Dan Bylsma, the Penguins finished the season 18-3-4, and looked every bit like a defending Eastern Conference champion should. Despite the Flyers wealth of talent, I just can’t see the Penguins getting bounced in the first round. That said, there really isn’t any value betting them, as the public’s adoration of Crosby and Malkin has inflated this line way too high for such evenly matched teams. If I had to bet it, I’d take Philadelphia and the +odds, as they certainly don’t deserve to be a +140 dog here.

PREDICTION: Pittsburgh in 6

BEST BET: Philadelphia to win series if it climbs up over +150

(http://sbrforum.com/Betting%20Articles/NHL/10783/pittsburgh-penguins-philadelphia-flyers-battle-race-stanley-cup.aspx)

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By Dave Consolazio, April 6, 2009 10:34 am

All teams are starting the 2009 MLB season with some injuries, but identifying which teams can hold their own while star players are out and which teams are in early trouble is the key.  The Yankees will miss Alex Rodriguez at least until late May, but should be able to weather that storm while the Seattle Mariners will be without the heart and soul of their team with Ichiro Suzuki sidelined by a bleeding ulcer.

Like any other year, the 2009 baseball season will see a slew of key players on the disabled list before the season even begins. Finding which teams can take these injuries in stride and which teams will fall apart because of them can help contribute to a profitable April.

Injuries in sports are a regular occurrence, as is their use as an excuse among fans. When their team is winning while their star player is watching from the sidelines, fans talk about how the team stepped up in the player’s absence and came together as a team. When the team is losing, fans argue they wouldn’t be losing if it weren’t for injuries.

These stances, while vastly overused by the common fan, aren’t always inaccurate. Not all injuries are created equal; some can cripple a team’s spirits on and off the field while others can lift the team to carry the load in their teammate’s absence. It all depends on coaching, the maturity of the players, and of course the depth of a team’s reserves; you can be as mature as you want, but without talent, it is tough to win in the big leagues.

So let’s take a look at five of the key injuries this season, and whether or not they should affect your betting patterns.

BE CAUTIOUS BETTING OR CONSIDER FADING

BJ Upton, Tampa Bay Rays
Considering the fact that there were already a number of reasons to fade the Rays early in the season which I went over in my article aptly titled “Fade the Tampa Bay Rays in April,” losing one of their best young hitters doesn’t do much to change my mind. After a surprisingly powerless regular season with only nine home runs, Upton finally flashed the power that scouts and fans had been waiting for, hitting seven home runs in the postseason.

Add on the fact that he stole over 40 bases last year, and Upton is one of the most important pieces to this young Rays offense. The injury shouldn’t keep Upton out too long, but if you weren’t convinced to stay away from betting the Rays before this injury, you may want to consider jumping the fence now.

Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle Mariners
Take away the heart and soul of one of the worst teams in baseball. Then take away their best defensive player. While you are at it, take away their best offensive player and their best base runner. Oh, wait, this is exactly what has happened.

There won’t be a whole lot of money to be made fading this team as there will be some big numbers on the favorite on the other side, but please do yourself a favor and don’t get tempted by huge dog numbers. Don’t rationalize betting them because they are a home dog and King Felix or Eric Bedard is on the mound. Save yourself the agony, at least until Ichiro gets back.

Trevor Hoffman, Milwaukee Brewers
If you bet the Brew Crew much last year, you know all about the pain and agony of trying to get through the late innings of a game with this team. Bringing in Hoffman was a smart move; despite the fact that he is past his prime and much more hittable in his old age, he is still a serviceable closer that will get you the win much more often than not. His injury bumps Carlos Villanueva into the closer role, who I think will do fine there, but lacks experience in the may become a factor.

But he isn’t the one I’m worried about; it is bridging the gap from starter to closer that has me scratching my head. Handing the ball off to Seth McClung, Todd Coffey, David Riske, or Jorge Julio to get key outs in the later innings of the game just makes me shudder. I’m not suggesting ignoring the Brewers completely; their offense can hit with anyone, and young pitchers like Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra will be well worth a look. I’m just pointing out that betting this team will not be for the faint at heart in the early stages of this season; and no one will want to hear you complain that you had the lead the whole game and got screwed. You didn’t. Bullpens are a part of baseball, too, as many teams and bettors know all too well.

DON’T WORRY ABOUT IT TOO MUCH

Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins
It certainly doesn’t help to have one of the best hitting catchers in the league on the DL to start the season. But you don’t really bet the Twins for their high-powered offense (as they don’t have one, even with Mauer in lineup). Guys like Francisco Liriano, Kevin Slowey, and Nick Blackburn will still likely be found at a good value early in the season (as will Scott Baker when he returns from the DL), and Jason Kubel should take a big step forward this season and help Justin Morneau carry this offense until Mauer gets back. There is enough young talent and speed in this lineup to produce runs without Mauer, and I hope the books overcompensate for his absence and give us even better numbers than they would have if he were in the lineup.

Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees
Not many lineups can lose the best hitter in baseball and take it in stride; but the New York Yankees are one of them. With Mark Teixeira, Johnny Damon, Derek Jeter, Xavier Nady, Hideki Matsui, Robinson Cano, and Jorge Posada still powering the lineup, this team will never be easy to pitch against. With a much improved starting rotation and a great bullpen to go with it, this Yankees team should still perform at an elite level without their best bat in the lineup.

Then again, did it really matter what I wrote here? Yankee haters and faders were going to bet against this team regardless preaching about value on the underdogs, and Yankee fans and lovers were going to bet them every night preaching about this being their year anyway.

Whether you agree or disagree with my assessments on these players’ injuries, make sure to always stay on top of your injury news! Not being caught off guard when the team you bet is missing a great player (or perhaps more importantly, betting against teams missing great players before the public moves the line) will be a key to your handicapping success in 2009.

(http://sbrforum.com/Betting%20Articles/MLB/10713/factoring-injuries-into-early-season-mlb-betting.aspx)

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By Dave Consolazio, April 3, 2009 9:57 am

David ‘Big Papi’ Ortiz and Daisuke ‘Dice K’ Matsuzaka hold the keys to whether or not the Boston Red Sox return to the playoffs for a sixth time in seven seasons.

Now that the AL East is no longer just a two horse race, will the Red Sox find a way to separate from the pack, or will they be on the outside looking in?

Projected Lineup and Rotation (per www.cbssports.com)

Lineup
Jacoby Ellsbury (CF)
Dustin Pedroia (2B)
David Ortiz (DH)
Kevin Youkilis (1B)
Jason Bay (LF)
J.D. Drew (RF)
Mike Lowell (3B)
Jed Lowrie (SS)
Jason Varitek (C)

Rotation
Josh Beckett
Jon Lester
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Brad Penny
Tim Wakefield

Being of the belief that the Tampa Bay Rays will not have a big drop off this year and coupling that with the fact that I have the Yankees penciled into a playoff spot, I was just about ready to write off the Red Sox this year. That is, of course, until I took a good look at their roster.

Now I don’t know what to think.

HITTING

Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia make up a very nice 1-2 punch at the top of the batting order. Ellsbury is lethal on the basepads, swiping 50 bases last year, just four shy of Tommy Harper’s Red Sox franchise record. The only problem with Ellsbury last year was his relatively low .336 on base percentage (especially considering his .280 batting average), but there is no reason to believe he can’t take a step forward this season as he learns more patience at the plate in his second full year in the bigs.

Pedroia meanwhile has taken no time at all to establish himself as a 5-tool-player, winning the AL Rookie of the Year award in 2007 (with a .317 batting average) and the AL MVP and a Gold Glove award in 2008 (with a .326 batting average). His average alone makes him dangerous on a team with a heart of the order like the Red Sox’, but tack on a bit of pop in his bat (17 home runs in ‘08) and excellent base running skills (20 stolen bases to one caught stealing last year), and you have a premiere hitter in the 2-spot.

David Ortiz, Kevin Youkilis, and Jason Bay make up a mammoth heart of the order, assuming last season was an aberration for David Ortiz and wasn’t one for Kevin Youkilis. Youkilis’ batting average has improved with each full season he’s played (.279 in 2006, .288 in 2007, .312 in 2008), so it isn’t unrealistic to believe that his path to last year’s break out year was a legitimate one. The surprising stat was the home run category, jumping from 13 and 16 in 2006 and 2007 to 29 in 2008. This season will be very telling as to whether or not Youkilis has made the leap into being a true power threat.

Ortiz’s season is perhaps the most important for the Boston Red Sox. Affectionately known as Big Papi, Ortiz is the emotional leader of this club, especially with the likes of Johnny Damon, Manny Ramirez, Pedro Martinez, and Curt Schilling no longer on board. Jason Varitek is the team’s captain and is a good presence off the diamond, but he is an awful hitter. Ortiz on the other hand has not only been the heart and soul of this team off the field, on it he had compiled four straight monster seasons, averaging 152 games played, 111 runs, 44 homeruns, 135 RBIs, and a .304 batting average from 2004-2007.

Last season injuries slowed Ortiz down in a big way as he only played 109 games and batted an uncharacteristically weak .264. Come playoff time, when Ortiz is usually a dominant force (31 runs, 9 homeruns, 30 RBIs, .381 batting average in 31 playoff games from 2004-07), he hit only .186, looking more like an easy out then the dominant plate presence he has been for years.

If Ortiz can stay healthy and even come close to what he was before last year’s struggles, the emotional and production boost might be enough to put the Red Sox over the top offensively.

Depth guys like Rocco Baldelli, Mark Kotsay and Brad Wilkerson make for good options off the bench if their services are needed.

PITCHING

While the Red Sox have some question marks on their staff (like every other team in the league), they do have one very nice thing going for them; depth. The ability to mix and match to find the right rotation, as well as the ability to fill guys in when injuries occur is an important thing to have.

Josh Beckett is coming off of a good (not great) season, slowed down a bit by injuries. A return to 2007 form (20 wins, 3.27 ERA) would certainly make Terry Francona and the Red Sox Nation very happy. But even if he doesn’t, when healthy he should still pitch well enough to give this offense a chance to win just about every time out.

I’m a bit of a skeptic when it comes to a player’s first great season in the big leagues. I’ve seen one too many players put together a great season or two only to return to mediocrity for good shortly afterwards.  I’m not saying this will be the case for Daisuke Matsuzaka or Jon Lester at all; I’m simply saying that I’m not as willing as most people are to pencil them both in as bona fide No. 2 and No. 3 starters when last season was the first time either had pitched below a 4.40 ERA for a season.

Matsuzaka is a well-documented favorite to come crashing back down to earth, as 18-3, 2.90 ERA is way too tidy for a pitcher that gives so many batters free passes. Yes, Matsuzaka deserves credit for pitching his way out of these jams, but math and reason dictate that a pitcher can only get away unscathed from loading the bases so many times.

As for Beckett, I believe that even if there is regression from last season these two are still more than capable to give their team a chance to win on most nights. It would just be wise to tread with caution with your projections on these two relatively unproven commodities.

The bottom of the rotation will be filled out by some combination of Brad Penny, Tim Wakefield, Justin Masterson, Clay Buchholz and eventually John Smoltz. Penny and Smoltz were both excellent injury-risk gambles by the Red Sox; Penny, when healthy, is a very capable pitcher, and Smoltz has still shown dominant stuff even in his older age when healthy. If either of them pan out they will make a great addition to this staff.

Masterson and Buchholz are two bright young arms in the Red Sox system, with Masterson being pegged higher on the depth chart due to having more success at the major league level so far in their young careers. Wakefield is simply an inning eater that can be used wherever Francona needs him.

Early projections look like Penny and Wakefield will start the season at No. 4 and No. 5, Masterson will head to the bullpen, Buchholz to Triple-A and Smoltz to the IR or DL. Manager Terry Francona will be able to shuffle as he sees fit, and I eventually see Masterson earning a rotation spot through injuries or the faltering of the bottom of the rotation.

BETTING

The Greek has the Red Sox going off at +550 to win it all and the Over/Under on regular season wins is set at 95.5 (Over -120, Under +100). I like the Under here; 96 wins is a very difficult feat, especially when you play in the same division as two of the AL’s best teams in the Yankees and Rays. There are just too many injury risks here, and while they seem to have the depth on paper to overcome them and stay in the pennant race, -120 seems like a high price to pay to grab 96 wins.

The +550 World Series price isn’t a terrible gamble at that price considering this team’s poise and recent success in the playoffs, but it is still a bit lower then I’d personally consider tying my money up for so long for.

On the spot prediction: 92 to 95 wins, second in the AL East, Wild Card Berth.

(http://sbrforum.com/Betting%20Articles/MLB/10615/boston-red-sox-part-three-horse-race-al-east.aspx)