Comments Off

By Dave Consolazio, May 29, 2009 12:00 pm

The stage has been set for a rematch of last year’s Stanley Cup Finals; the Detroit Red Wings vs. the Pittsburgh Penguins. This is the first time since 1984 that the same two teams have met in the finals in back to back seasons. Last year the Red Wings won this series in six games, but the Penguins have come a long way since then, and I expect them to have their names engraved in the Cup this time around.

There is no doubt that Detroit is an excellent team, and they are arguably the better team on paper in this series. But this notion that they are invincible or in a league of their own that some fans and bettors seem to have make no sense to me. In their first series against Columbus, Detroit was obviously not only the better team but facing a team that was overwhelmed to even having made the playoffs. In their last series against Chicago, Detroit ended up winning with what looked like a pretty easy series final of 4-1; but in actuality three of the five games went to overtime and game one was tied in the third period before Detroit ran away with it. Only game four was a convincing blowout victory, and that was due to the fact that Cristobal Huet was making his first start of the playoffs and clearly had a lot of rust. In the end, Detroit’s experience was the difference maker in those close games, as they have been playing in these big time playoff games for over a decade now while the Blackhawks were in their first playoff berth in quite a while.

But have we forgotten the series sandwiched in between? The series where an eighth seeded Anaheim Ducks team that was experienced and confident and defensively responsible and not coming off of long playoff droughts like Chicago and Columbus actually pushed Detroit to seven games? Game seven was tied until Daniel Cleary scored the go-ahead goal with three minutes left on the clock. One bounce the other way and we are likely talking about a Ducks Penguins final right about now.

Detroit is not invincible, and they are not unbeatable.

The last time that two teams met in back to back Stanley Cup Finals series was back in the early 80’s when the veteran New York Islanders faced the young up-and-coming Edmonton Oilers. The first time around, the Islanders beat the young Oilers. Wayne Gretzky once said that walking past that locker room and seeing how beat up that Islanders team was made him realize what it took to win the Stanley Cup. Finesse and talent wasn’t enough; you had to leave everything on the line. They learned that the hard way.

The following year in their return to the Finals, the Oilers prevailed, ending the Islanders’ dynasty and starting one of their own.

The comparisons from this series over two decades ago are uncanny. Detroit plays the role of the veteran dynasty. Edmonton’s two young stars, Wayne Gretzky and Mark Messier, were being heralded as two future hall-of-famers destined for a dynasty of their own. Pittsburgh’s version is led by Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, who draw the exact same hype.

Last year Detroit won this series in six games. I believe that Pittsburgh will be mentally tougher this year and will do what it takes to prevail. Both Crosby and Malkin appear to be in top form, tied for first in the playoffs with 28 points each. Since making the head coaching change to Dan Bylsma mid season, the Penguins are 30-8-4 overall including this playoff run. Players like Chris Kunitz and Bill Guerin may not have the star power of a Marian Hossa, but they have the grit and have both won Stanley Cups before, and they can help show the rest of the young Penguins what it takes.

Prediction: Penguins in 6
Betting Strategy: Penguins series price at +140, and bet them individual games on the money line.

(http://sbrforum.com/Betting%20Articles/NHL/11167/pittsburgh-penguins-upset-detroit-red-wings.aspx)

Comments Off

By Dave Consolazio, May 28, 2009 3:47 pm

While I was still working at SBR, I had the idea of covering the NHL playoffs in both video and written form. While the articles were featured on the main website and also drew traffic from Google News, the videos were uploaded to youtube to complement the articles and draw traffic from a seperate source. Many of the points in the articles and videos overlap, but there is less of a focus on the numbers and statistics in the videos.

These videos were the first of mine to feature an anchor box, which I learned how to edit in with my upgraded video editing software, Final Cut Pro. I thought this was a fun and useful addition to my videos.

Below each video are links to the complimentary articles.

http://www.davesdime.com/nhl-stanley-cup-finals-preview/

http://www.davesdime.com/nhl-eastern-conference-semifinals-preview/

http://www.davesdime.com/nhl-western-conference-semifinals-preview/

http://www.davesdime.com/nhl-eastern-conference-quarterfinals-preview/

http://www.davesdime.com/nhl-western-conference-quarterfinals-preview/

Comments Off

By Dave Consolazio, May 15, 2009 9:07 am

We started with 16 teams, all with dreams of hoisting the Stanley Cup. Now only four teams remain. Getting this far is familiar territory to three of them; Carolina won the Stanley Cup in 2006, Detroit won it last year, and Pittsburgh was the team they beat to do it. For Chicago, it marks the first time in 15 years they have been this far. Can they beat their fellow Original 6 opponent? And who will prevail in the East?

Well let’s just come out and say it; I got flat out slaughtered in my predictions of how the semifinals would go. My only correct prediction was that the Detroit Red Wings would win a hard fought series against the Anaheim Ducks; and it took a goal with just three minutes left in the game to break the tie to make that prediction come true. I was also right about Washington and Pittsburgh being very evenly matched and going to seven games; not so much with who would WIN game seven.

While I had Vancouver advancing, I give myself some credit for backtracking on that prediction after seeing the first two games. Once I saw that the tempo was fast paced and high scoring, I knew that Vancouver wasn’t going to be able to keep up, and hedged out of that prediction when the series was tied at 1-1. As for Carolina? They just made a fool out of me, as I underestimated them every step of the way, and they kept rising to the challenge.

But the last two rounds are a thing of the past, and the regular season is now far in our rear view mirror. We’ve seen what these four teams are capable of in the playoffs. The question is; can we use those observations to pick some winners? If my last round is any indication, the answer is “hell no”, but that isn’t going to stop me from trying.

#2 Detroit Red Wings (-195) vs. #4 Chicago Blackhawks (+165)

Do you like offense? Good. Because there is going to be plenty of it in this series.

While both teams boast a respectable core of blueliners, the Chicago Blackhawks have made it quite clear what their strategy for success is; score, score, and score some more.

In round one they played a Calgary team that was willing to try to play the same type of game and go toe to toe with the Blackhawks. That didn’t bode well for them as they picked up only two wins in the series before being sent home.

Round two, Chicago played a team in Vancouver that relied on a steady mix of defense and goaltending as well as a consistent but not overpowering offense. I thought Vancouver would control the tempo, but Chicago steamrolled right over them, scoring at will and coming back from multiple deficits against one of the best goaltenders in the game in Roberto Luongo.

You can’t take anything away from the Chicago Blackhawks. They had a great regular season and they’ve had a great run in the playoffs. They’ve also proven to be substantially more physical than they got credit for, and their age and experience has clearly not been an issue to date.

But what happens when they run into a team that matches up perfectly against them? Calgary was willing to play the Blackhawk’s style of play, but they did not have the personnel or the talent to keep up. Vancouver tried to slow them down but failed. In Detroit, Chicago once again meets a team that will be willing to throw caution to the wind and play fast paced fun and gun hockey. But unlike Calgary, this team has the tools and the depth to beat them at their own game.

Detroit’s first round sweep over Columbus was child’s play as they dominated a clearly inferior and shell-shocked opponent. In the second round they met the Ducks, who are perfectly built for the playoffs; they are mean, gritty, talented, and they always get hot goaltending at the right time. This is a nasty team that pushed Detroit to the limit.

But Chicago while physical and defensively capable in their own right doesn’t have the shutdown defensive style that the Ducks did. They also don’t have the veteran playoff experience or the Stanley Cup rings that the Ducks did.

I can see Chicago winning this series, don’t get me wrong. They have the firepower to make no lead safe, making them a very tough team to keep down and out. I used the same terminology when predicting the Bruins would beat the Hurricanes that “both teams play the same style, but the Bruins play it better”, and obviously I was wrong. But one of the main reasons I believe I was wrong was that Carolina had the intangibles; they have recently won a Stanley Cup and had the playoff experience and they knew what it took to dig deep and upset a superior opponent. In this series, not only does Detroit play the fun and gun style better, but they also have the intangibles and the playoff experience on their side. As such, I don’t see them losing this series.

Prediction: Detroit in 6
Betting Strategies: I’d bet the Detroit to win the series, and would also consider small wagers on Detroit in 6 and Detroit in 7 exact series prices. But most importantly, bet OVERS. Expect the lamp to be lit plenty and consistently throughout the entire series.

#4 Pittsburgh Penguins (-195) vs. #6 Carolina Hurricanes (+165)

I wouldn’t shut up about the Anaheim Ducks. How they were the type of team that would never say die, was built for the playoffs, got excellent goaltending, just won a Stanley Cup a few years ago, and was being written off by everyone when they should be taken as a serious threat to win it all.

Meanwhile, I just so happened to be writing off a team that matched that exact same criteria in the Carolina Hurricanes. Funny how we can be selective with what we see, isn’t it?

Now granted, the Hurricanes and Ducks are two very different teams, and I still think the Ducks are the “better” team. But that doesn’t really matter now, does it? Given the choice of being eight wins away from being Stanley Cup champions and not having Vegas Dave’s approval or golfing this weekend and having Vegas Dave give you the thumbs up, I highly doubt Carolina would trade spots with Anaheim.

Both the first round and second round took seven games for Carolina to come out on top, and both games were won in the closing seconds, too. This team simply will not go away. New Jersey had the lead with less then two minutes to go in game seven; and they didn’t even make it to overtime.

Pittsburgh didn’t take the easy road to get to this point either. Falling to 0-2 to Washington, Pittsburgh had to defy the odds and claw their way back into the series, eventually pushing the series to a seventh game that they completely dominated. You can say what you want about Sidney Crosby’s attitude or that he “rubs you the wrong way”, but if you aren’t willing to accept the fact that he was deserving of all the hype and is an elite NHL talent, you are in serious denial.

This series is an awfully tough one to cap. Carolina appears to be outmatched on paper, but that doesn’t seem to bother them if the first two series are any indication. I’d actually give the goaltending edge to the Hurricanes as well considering how strong Cam Ward has been. But in the end, I have to side with the Penguins. Boston had a balanced attack, but didn’t really have any star power on offense. Pittsburgh has two of the three best players in the league on offense, and quite frankly I don’t think Carolina will have an answer for Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin. I wouldn’t bet the series price against the Hurricanes since they are so pesky, but I do expect the Penguins to prevail.

Prediction: Pittsburgh in 7
Betting Strategies: I’d pick spots betting Pittsburgh in individual games when the juice was reasonable, and do the same for overs as I expect this to be a high scoring series as well.

(http://sbrforum.com/Betting%20Articles/NHL/11055/red-wings-penguins-ready-conference-finals.aspx)

Comments Off

By Dave Consolazio, May 4, 2009 10:16 am

While Boston and Carolina should provide a fast paced, all eyes in the East are on the Penguins, Capitals showdown including the league’s three top scorers in Sidney Crosby, Alexander Ovechkin, and Evgeni Malkin.

#1 Boston Bruins (-215) vs. #6 Carolina Hurricanes (+185)

Boston made quick work of the Montreal Canadians, going an extremely impressive 4-0 on the moneyline AND the puckline. They scored at least four goals in every game and never gave up more than two, making it pretty clear that unlike San Jose, they weren’t just going to roll over in the playoffs. The series trended over due to Boston’s high powered offense, finishing at 3-1-0.

Carolina comes off of an evenly matched series against the New Jersey Devils. They were 4-3 on the moneyline, 1-2 as the favorite on the puckline, and 3-1 on the puckline as the underdog. Their series against the Devils trended slightly under at 2-3-2.

Carolina has that “it” factor that you can’t quite put into words, but it is what makes them so dangerous in the playoffs. With a post lockout Stanley Cup under their belts and much of the same core that earned it for them still in place, this team has the confidence to win in the playoffs, and late-game heroics against the greatest goaltender of all time proved that once again.

But in Boston, Carolina meets a team that could not be a worse match-up for them. Carolina does many things well; they roll multiple scoring lines, they play a physical game, and they get great goaltending. The problem? The Bruins play the exact same style of game, but they play it better.

Trying to predict how playoff series are going to go is a lot more difficult when dealing with teams with conflicting styles, as you can only guess which team will control the tempo and force the other team out of their element. But when both teams play the same brand of hockey, it is simply a matter of who plays it better. If Carolina sticks to what got them here, this will be a quick series. If they try to deviate from what got them here and be something they are not? It’ll be even quicker.

During the regular season, these teams met four times, and all four times Boston won; twice by the score of 4-2 and twice by the score of 5-1. While the intensity of the playoffs may not allow it to be quite so easy this time around, I have no reason to believe that the results will be much different.

PREDICTION: Boston in 5
BETTING STRATEGY: Boston on the puckline in individual games. Boston series win at -215.  I’d also lay a wager on Boston in 4 at +805 and Boston in 5 at +425. Overs are likely to be prevelant as well, but both of these goaltenders are capable of big games.

#2 Washington Capitals (-110) vs. #4 Pittsburgh Penguins (-110)

Washington got into some early trouble against the Rangers down 3-1, but won three straight elimination games to end up 4-3 on the moneyline and 3-4 on the puckline. Due to the sharp goaltending in the early part of the series by Henrik Lundqvist and in the latter parts by Simeon Varlamov, the series stayed under the majority of the time at 2-5-0.

Pittsburgh out dueled cross-state rival Philadelphia, finishing up 4-2 on the moneyline. They were 2-1 on the puckline as a favorite and 2-1 on the puckline as an underdog as well. Despite two of the highest powered offenses in the league facing off, the series stayed under more often than not at 2-4-0.

This is the series that the NHL and its fans wanted. The league’s three most elite scorers; the Capital’s Alexander Ovechkin and the Pittsburgh Penguin’s Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin will showdown in an all-out slugfest.

I get giddy just visualizing this series in a playoff atmosphere. But from a capper’s standpoint, it’s pretty damn tough to cap. Much like the Boston Carolina series, this series matches up two teams that play virtually the exact same game; attack attack attack. Usually, the team on the opposite side of the ice is overwhelmed by all of the talent being thrown at them; but in this series neither team will give any ground in the talent department.

It will come down to who wins the goaltender battle, and who fights it out in the corners just a little harder. If Jose Theodore was in net, the answer would be a lot clearer; but relatively unknown Simeon Varlamov has burst onto the scene in impressive fashion; and any goaltender that can win three straight elimination games in the playoffs as a rookie clearly has the mental toughness to compete at this level. Marc-Andre Fluery has had consistency issues in the past, but when he is on, he can be dangerous as well.

I believe Washington of the tougher team and will win those battles in the corner just a little more often, which may end up being the difference; but then again, Pittsburgh out-muscled Philadelphia who also has the reputation of being a gritty team.

I can’t even advise betting the overs in this series, as everyone with access to a gambling account will be doing the same thing, likely driving every O/U to 6 and possibly even 6.5. That said, would you really dare bet the under against these two teams either?

Personally, I’d just kick back and watch this series. Too many other events to bet on in the world of sports to try to tackle this one! My gut tells me Washington edges Pittsburgh out, but since I’ve been losing my gut on a diet over the last few months, I don’t know who to trust anymore.

PREDICTION: Washington in 7
BETTING STRATEGY: None. If you must, bet the team you are rooting for. Or from a value standpoint, bet the team with the +odds, as all the games in this series could go either way.

(http://sbrforum.com/Betting%20Articles/NHL/10937/penguins-capitals-highlight-eastern-semifinals.aspx)

Comments Off

By Dave Consolazio, May 1, 2009 12:16 pm

The Western Conference has been narrowed down to four teams, each a mere 12 wins away from winning the Cup.

So let’s once again try to figure out who is going to win these series, and how we can make some money betting them!

#2 Detroit Red Wings (-280) vs. #8 Anaheim Ducks (+240)
There aren’t many certainties when it comes to the NHL playoffs, but one thing is for sure; Detroit will not have such an easy series this time around.

Detroit was 4-0 on the moneyline (as a favorite in every game) and 3-1 on the puckline against Columbus, making it look very easy through the first three games until an exciting offensive shootout in game four which Detroit came out on top of 6-5. The series trended under (mainly due to Columbus’s inability to score in games one through three), finishing at 1-2-1.

Anaheim was 4-2 on the moneyline (as an underdog in every game) and 6-0 on the puckline against San Jose, winning four and losing by only one in both of the losses. You would have never known that San Jose was the prohibitive favorite from just watching the series; Anaheim outplayed San Jose for the majority of the series and clearly wanted it more. The series trended under but mostly ended in pushes at 1-2-3.

Anaheim’s upset was no real surprise to people that knew these teams. The Ducks are a team built for the playoffs, they play a very physical game and aren’t afraid to take penalties if it mean’s getting under their opponents skin. The penalty kill is great, but perhaps most importantly; this is a mentally tough team that KNOWS they can win. San Jose does not have that winning culture, and it clearly showed when these two teams clashed.

The problem in this series for the Ducks is that they run into another team that is equally mentally tough and confident in their own ability to win. What the Ducks lacked on paper against the Sharks they easily made up for by dominating in intangibles. Facing a team that is not only stronger on paper but also has the mental toughness to not get rattled by a loss or a hot goaltender, Anaheim certainly has their work cut out for them.

If the Ducks can’t keep the penalty minutes down, this Wings unit will make them pay for it. Detroit had the league’s best offense this year without question, and I believe they will overpower the Ducks and take this series. I wouldn’t bet the series price at -300 though; while the Wings are the better team, the Ducks are too strong both mentally and physically to eat such big chalk against, especially if Hiller can stay sharp; something I’m not expecting against this offense, but not out of the question.

The real money to be made on this series will be on the overs. While both teams trended under in the last round, that was due to their opponent’s offensive woes, not their own. In the three regular season match ups between these two teams, 7+ goals were scored in 3 of the 4. While there may be a defensive standoff or two, I believe this series will largely come down to who can outscore who, despite both of these team’s past reputations for defense.

Whatever you do, be careful eating huge chalk on a game to game basis on Detroit. Don’t let non-hockey fans fool you into believing last round was some kind of fluke; the Ducks are for real.

PREDICTION: Detroit Red Wings in 6
BETTING STRATEGY: Overs. If you like to bet correct series prices, I’d consider betting both Detroit in 6 and Detroit in 7, each going off at +365.

#3 Vancouver Canucks (-145) vs. #4 Chicago Blackhawks (+125)
Vancouver swept their series against the Blues, going 4-0 on the moneyline (as a favorite in every game) and 1-3 on the puckline. Roberto Luongo and the Canucks defense kept the Blues’ offense at bay, leading the series to trend under (0-2-2)

Chicago’s series with Calgary had a little bit of everything, and was the only series in the west where one team was not the favorite in every game. Chicago was 3-0 moneyline as the favorite (at home) and 1-2 moneyline as the underdog (on the road). 5 of the 6 games were within a half goal of the 5.5 over/under mark in the series, which ended up splitting the over/under at 3 apiece (3-3-0)

Honestly I know this doesn’t help much from a betting standpoint, but this series really is more of the sit-back-and-enjoy type. While Vancouver is a balanced team with great special teams and an underrated offense, they really rely on their defense and goaltending to win them hockey games. Chicago meanwhile is also relatively well balanced, but they rely on their extremely dangerous offense to tip the scales.

In a series with two clashing styles, the edge often goes to the team that plays their particular brand of hockey “better”. When neither team is an obvious step above the other? You have an excellent series that is damn near impossible to cap. Any game can go either way, and the over under is anyone’s guess.

My advice? Just eat the chalk on Vancouver to win the series. Defense tends to win these battles in evenly matched cases, and unlike Calgary, Vancouver is capable of winning on the road. I see Vancouver getting to four wins first often enough to warrant a series bet at this price, and then just kicking back and enjoying the show. Betting this series game by game looks to be more of an exercise in coin flipping technique to me.

PREDICTION: Vancouver Canucks in 6
BETTING STRATEGY: If your book only takes series bets (not exact series result bets), take the Canucks to win the series. If you have series bets, I’d bet the Canucks in 6 (+405) and the Canucks in 7 (+365) instead, because I really don’t see this series ending in 5 or less.

(http://sbrforum.com/Betting%20Articles/NHL/10924/canucks-off-running-western-conference-semifinals.aspx)