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By Dave Consolazio, June 18, 2009 9:53 am

While NFL fans are looking forward to seeing QB Matthew Stafford and RB Knowshon Moreno in the pros, Georgia certainly wasn’t looking forward to losing them.

The draft may be an exciting time for NFL teams, scouts, and fans, but in its wake it leaves plenty of headaches. With the early departure of both of Georgia’s most talented offensive players, the Bulldogs have their work cut out for them in filling these holes.

Last year Georgia entered the season at No. 1 in the polls, but was bested during the regular season by Florida, Alabama and Georgia Tech. They finished with a 10-3 record overall, and a 4-6-2 record against the spread. At 6-6-0, there was no distinct trend in Over-Under betting.

With their two best players on offense now departed, Georgia will have a totally different look this season when the ball is in their possession. Who will fill these holes, and will they lead to any trends that bettors can take advantage of?

Quarterback
Likely Starter: Joe Cox
On his heels: Logan Gray, Aaron Murray, Zach Mettenberger

While there is a good chance that Mettenberger and/or Murray may end up getting redshirted for their freshman year, considering how wide open the position is, we still need to follow them closely over the off season, namely Aaron Murray. While Mettenberger is also a four star recruit, Aaron Murray was the third highest rated quarterback of the 2009 class. With an exceptional spring, it wouldn’t be shocking for him to at leasy get his name involved in the mix, especially if Cox or Gray do not step up and claim the position.

Senior Joe Cox only has 58 passing attempts over the course of his collegiate career with the Bulldogs, but he enters camp the prohibitive favorite to be the starter, as he has paid his dues and worked under this system since 2005. That said, it is hard to believe he will have a very long leash with so much talent and potential right below him on the depth chart. Logan Gray will likely get snaps to add some versatility to the Bulldogs offense; he has the talent to be a good dual threat option and can use his arm or his feet to pick up yards.

No matter who ends up being the starter, there will undoubtedly be growing pains. Expect a heavy dose of running the football to try and keep the pressure off of the quarterback.

Running Back
Likely Starter: Caleb King
On his heels: Richard Samuel, Carlton Thomas

Caleb King, the redshirt sophomore, will very likely be the man in the backfield to start games off for the Bulldogs. King has the potential to be a great college back; he is both fast and strong and has shown great signs of vision. He may get first dibs at the starting job, but he will have to perform at a high level to continue getting the bulk of the carries with Samuel and Thomas on the roster as well.

Carlton Thomas has been turning some heads early during spring workouts. An undersized back at only 5’7, 165, Thomas uses his size to his advantage with blazing speed and elusiveness, making him very difficult to wrap up and take down. He will break plenty of long runs from scrimmage before this season is over, and just might juke and jive his way to second on the depth chart over Richard Samuel if he keeps impressing.

Samuel is a more powerful back at 6-2, 215 pounds and is the type of player that defenders hate to tackle. He can lower his shoulder and do some damage to an oncoming tackler while fighting for those extra few yards. On third and shorts and goal line situations this year, Samuel will likely get the call; that is of course if he is able to overcome that bad habit of losing the football.

One thing these position battles tell us more than anything is that this offense is raw, and it will undoubtedly make some mistakes. That said, I’m expecting Georgia to come out with a game plan that is very safe and very heavy on running the football, and I believe that this offense will be efficient in running a safe offense with three capable young backs in the backfield.

Georgia’s defense took a hit in losing CB Asher Allen, but they have the depth and talent to still have an effective year next year. A defensive team running a safe offense in the SEC? I’ll be taking a healthy dose of the Under in 2009, and with so many no-names on offense the Bulldogs will likely be drawing some pretty favorable spreads to start the season, and I’ll take my chances on some inflated spreads when the price is right.

(http://sbrforum.com/Betting+Articles/NCAAF/10866/georgia-bulldogs-enter-2009-plenty-questions.aspx)

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By Dave Consolazio, June 16, 2009 1:58 am

Horse racing is a tough enough sport to cap when the field isn’t full to the brim with evenly matched contenders. But you have to take a stab on the Derby, and here are the horses I like.

In any horse race, just like in any other sport, there is always a great deal of randomness that can throw a perfectly capped race completely out the window. A bad start out of the gate, a horse breaking to the front to soon, a bump, a surprising ride by an unknown, any one little thing can set off a chain reaction that creates a top three on the tote board that no one could have foreseen.

This is never clearer than in the Kentucky Derby, where such a large field of horses over such a long distance can produce any kind of result. And unlike last year’s Derby which had an obvious favorite by the numbers, this race features no such obvious favorite, increasing the likelihood of a beautiful breakdown with an enormous payout.

I am a speed handicapper, but I also factor in the projected pace of the race in making my decisions on who to play. I have as good of a grasp as I am going to get on this race, and will share my findings with you here. But just to clarify, when I make a note of “why the horse won’t win”, I simply mean why I disqualified it from my winner’s circle on my budget. Most of these horses, especially the one’s I’m centering on in this piece, have a good shot Saturday if the race aligns itself right.

HORSES I WILL BE USING TO WIN

13. I Want Revenge (3-1)

The likely favorite for good reason. Beyer Speed at the Gotham G3 of 113 by far the best that any in this field has run, and despite troubles in his last race still prevailed with a gritty effort and a 103 Beyer, unprecedented for a bumpy ride. Pioneer of Nile has beaten this horse twice, but both times were on synthetic track, and I Want Revenge clearly excels on dirt as shown in his last two races. Trainer Jeff Mullens and jockey Joe Talamo give me no reason not to feel confident in this horse.

6. Freisen Fire (5-1)

Blazingly fast workouts and a steady improvement in Beyer Speeds in three straight wins lead me to believe that Freisen Fire is ready to launch his best effort here on Saturday. His racing style is perfect for a race of this size; let the front runners take the lead and sit right behind them until the final turn and then make your strike. He has the pedigree, and trainer Jones J Larry’s stats on races like this one (Dirt Races 25% winners, Graded Stakes 36%, Route 27%, among others) lead me to believe that this horse will be very tough to beat down the stretch.

HORSES I WILL BE USING TO ROUND OUT MY EXOTICS

7. Papa Clem (20-1)

Will likely fight for the lead early, but Bejerano is a smart jockey and will not wear him out too early. Papa Clem has showed the ability to fight for the lead early and stay involved late. Has a chance to be the case again in this race, and would pay nicely.
Why he won’t win: Trainer numbers don’t create much confidence, has only won a single non-maiden race.

11. Chocolate Candy (20-1)

Has an unbelievable late kick; while he likely doesn’t have the speed to keep up with this bunch, if the horses in front tire, he has the late kick to clean up the garbage. This will be the horse that comes “out of nowhere” at the end to finish in the top 5; and maybe even the top 3.
Why he won’t win; Top Beyer of 94 just isn’t going to be close enough in this field.

15. Dunkirk (4-1)

Excellent Beyer of 108 is more than enough to beat any in this field. You simply can not throw out the horse with the best recent Beyer, and the 2nd highest among any in this field.
Why he won’t win; Only three career races, never raced as a two year old. Only one graded stakes race. Hard to see him edging out all the others in the end.

16. Pioneer of Nile (4-1)

Proven winner, has won last four races, all graded stakes. Gomez is one of the best jockeys in the game, and trainer numbers are very promising.
Why he won’t win; Hell, he probably will. But you can’t pick every horse in the field, and sometimes you have to put a serious contender out of your winner’s circle. As a speed handicapper, I can’t pencil a horse with a top career Beyer of 96 in as a winner in a race that will probably require a number in the mid 100’s to get the job done.

HOW I’M BETTING IT

I’m content to drop $50 on the Derby, and despite the fact that there will always be “that horse” in the crew that I left out that messes up everything, on my betting budget, I have to trust my capping.

$1 Trifecta ($40): 6, 13 with 6, 7, 11, 13, 15, 16 with 6, 7, 11, 13, 15, 16

$1 Exacta ($10): 6, 13 with 6, 7, 11, 13, 15, 16

Good luck on whatever you bet!

(http://sbrforum.com/Betting+Articles/Betting/10938/kentucky-derby-i-want-revenge-leads-wide-open-field.aspx)