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By Dave Consolazio, September 25, 2009 10:00 am

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO
And once again, the Dime comes out absurdly late. I apologize. Going through a bit of a rough patch right now, which unfortunately leads me to reverting back to my old methods of being productive; procrastinating. Thanks for understanding.

I will vent about my personal problems next week, but for now,

WOOOOOOW!

11-5 against the spread! I tend to throw this sort of week together every now and then, just like I’ll throw together it’s much more disappointing brother, the 5-11 week every so often as well. It’s a lot more fun to do this when the bounces are going your way, isn’t it?

Let’s see if we can hopefully keep this winning trend going with another strong week!

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 11 – 5 – 0 (.688)

Without the spread: 10 – 6 – 0 (.625)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 1 – 0 – 0 (1.000)
Season
With the spread: 18 – 14 – 0 (.563)
Without the spread: 20 – 12 – 0 (.625)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 2 – 1 – 0 (.667)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Carolina (+6.0) @ Atlanta (-6.0) W
Minnesota (-9.5) @ Detroit (+9.5) W
Oakland (+3.0) @ Kansas City (-3.0) W
St. Louis (+10.0) @ Washington (-10.0) W
Cincinnati (+9.5) @ Green Bay (-9.5) W
Tampa Bay (+4.5) @ Buffalo (-4.5) W
Pittsburgh (-3.0) @ Chicago (+3.0) W
Cleveland (+3.0) @ Denver (-3.0) W
Baltimore (+3.0) @ San Diego (-3.0) W
N.Y. Giants (+3.0) @ Dallas (-3.0) W
Indianapolis (-3.0) @ Miami (+3.0) W

THE BAD

New Orleans (-1.0) @ Philadelphia (+1.0) L
New England (-3.0) @ N.Y. Jets (+3.0) L
Arizona (+3.0) @ Jacksonville (-3.0) L
Seattle (+1.0) @ San Francisco (-1.0) L
THE COULD HAVE GONE EITHER WAY/NOT MY WAY THIS WEEK:

Houston (+7.0) @ Tennessee (-7.0) L

THE “WHAT THE $%^@”?:

NONE

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

SUNDAY

Jacksonville (+3.5) @ Houston (-3.5)
Man, I put some faith in Jacksonville last week and was punished severely for that. Dating back to last year, this team looks totally out of sync and just finds ways to lose football games. Houston’s defense is going to have to get a lot better, but I think they will build on last week’s big win with another one at home this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston

Tennessee (+2.0) @ N.Y. Jets (-2.0)
For the third straight week I’ll be going against the Jets; but it is no longer because I don’t believe in them. This is clearly going to be a pretty darn good football team this year, and the “rebuild” may not take as long as expected. That said, they are facing a Tennessee team that is now 0-2 and is in dire need of a win, as not many teams start off the season 0-3 and end up making the playoffs. The Jets maybe getting a touch over-confident and the veteran Titans stepping up in a game they can’t lose spells out upset

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Tennessee

Green Bay (-6.5) @ St. Louis (+6.5)
After dropping a frustrating game to Cincinnati last week, I can’t see Green Bay not being focused this week; and it’s hard to see St. Louis putting any points on the board. Not thrilled with giving up nearly a touchdown, but I think Green Bay gets in done easily enough.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

Washington (-6.5) @ Detroit (+6.5)
I’m so torn on this game. Honestly, Detroit really is this bad; and even though they’ve shown some signs of improvement they really shouldn’t beat Washington and should be getting more points. That said, if they are ever going to win one, this has to be the type of game they do it in; Washington’s offense has been painfully quiet, and they just barely squeaked by St. Louis at home. Now they head on the road to a Detroit team obviously hungry for a win… part of me says Washington destroys them, but I have to get with my initial reaction and say the Lions get it done.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Detroit

San Francisco (+7.0) @ Minnesota (-7.0)
Dating back to last season, San Francisco is 7-2 in the last nine games they have played, and one of the two losses was by five points. This is a competitive football team. Yes, Minnesota matches up well against them; they have a great rushing defense, and San Francisco relies on running the football. But as much as I respect Minnesota, San Francisco has proven to be a tough team to play against, and they could at least keep it close.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Minnesota

Atlanta (+4.5) @ New England (-4.5)
Looking like New England is going to be one of my trouble teams this year, but here are the facts; if this team was wearing any other jersey, all these excuses wouldn’t keep getting made for them. Atlanta seems to have picked up right where they left off last year, and New England is clearly not in sync and should be 0-2; at this point in time, Atlanta is the better football team. AND I get 4.5 points? Great, sign me up.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Atlanta

N.Y. Giants (-6.5) @ Tampa Bay (+6.5)
My only philosophy pick of the year that has lost so far, I’m giving Tampa Bay another shot. Let’s try to follow along; Week 1, Dallas easily stomps Tampa Bay in Tampa Bay. Week 2, New York Giants BEAT the Cowboys, while the Bucs lose again by double digits to Buffalo. Now try to explain to me how the Giants aren’t even a TD favorite? And how 80+% of the betting action is on the Giants and the line isn’t moving? Somethings fishy… lousy Bucs again!
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: N.Y. Giants

Cleveland (+13.5) @ Baltimore (-13.5)
I’d love to take Cleveland here; remember, KC put up 24 on Baltimore in Week 1. This isn’t looking like the shutdown defense we’re used to, and 13.5 is a lot of points. But man, the Browns look hopeless. Hate going against a division rival and giving up two touchdowns, but I’d hate being on Cleveland even more.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

Kansas City (+9.0) @ Philadelphia (-9.0)
Okay, I know Kansas City is bad; but no McNabb, Westbrook playing hurt/not playing at all, DeSean Jackson also not 100%… this is a beat up Eagles team. If not for Jake Delhomme’s implosion, who knows what that game could have been? After a humiliating loss at home to the Raiders, I think the Cheifs put forth their best effort this week and keep the loss to single-digits.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

Chicago (-2.5) @ Seattle (+2.5)
Chicago beats the defending Super Bowl champions. Seattle gets destroyed by San Francisco. Seattle loses their QB Matt Hasselbeck, and one of their best defensive players, Lofa Tatupu. But instead of being +8 or +9, they are… +2.5?!? Clearly the bookmakers know that there is more to this game than what meets the eye, and I’ll trust them.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Seattle

New Orleans (-6.0) @ Buffalo (+6.0)
A lot of people like Buffalo in this spot with weather reports saying there may be heavy rains, which would slow down New Orleans’ passing attack and tip the scales in Buffalo’s favor. Fair enough. I say that the Saints have such a talented and deep offense that no matter how the weather ends up, they’ll find a way to score, and do so often. We shall see.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

Pittsburgh (-3.5) @ Cincinnati (+3.5)
I like home underdogs. I also like division rival underdogs. Put the two together, and you’ve got a side worth playing; this one just screams late fieldgoal for the win, doesn’t it? I think Pittsburgh finds a way to win it, but not by more than three.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinatti
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

Denver (-2.0) @ Oakland (+2.0)
In a season that Jamarcus Russell needed to take his game to the next level, he has done the opposite; looking as bad as he ever has through the first two games. I still see a lot of potential in him, made no more apparent than his comeback drive on the Chiefs at the end of the game. But he will need to be better for Oakland to win this week; they need to start competing with him, not in spite of him. I have to take the Raiders in this spot; I think defensively they are more than capible of stopping Denver, and I’m still not sold on the Broncos at all. This game will tell us a lot about both of these teams.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Oakland

Miami (+5.5) @ San Diego (-5.5)
This one is a tough one as both of these teams are extremely difficult to figure out. I feel like I have to take the points though as I see this being a defensive game. Miami has done a fairly good job against two very good offenses in Indianapolis and Atlanta, and I’m not sold on the Chargers defensively. That said, they Bolts will likely come out on top; but in a close one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

Indianapolis (+3.0) @ Arizona (-3.0)
The amount of plays that the Colts’ defense saw last week was insane. They were on the field for virtually the entire game and were extremely fatigued. It would be hard enough to recover from that game if it weren’t a Monda night; losing that extra day of rest is brutal. Against an offense as high-powered as Arizona, I get the feeling Indy has a hangover this week and is handled by the defending NFC champs.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona

MONDAY

Carolina (+9.0) @ Dallas (-9.0)
I hate laying this many points, as honestly, it is too many. Dallas shouldn’t be this big of a favorite. All that aside, I still think they win this game by double digits. After last week’s disheartning loss at home on national television, Dallas gets another shot this week; and I think they put up a ton of points and win this one by double digits. Smart money is probably on the Panthers, but who ever said I was smart?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 13 – 12 – 1 (.520)

COLLEGE FOOTBALL FANS: Check out the website I run with my best friend Sam,
http://www.allpac10.com! Content updated daily.

Week 4 Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=02uHF0GcXdU

Cincinnati -16.5 (LOSS)
Air Force -16.5 (LOSS)
Oregon +5.5 (WIN)
Navy -28.0 (LOSS)
Tennessee -23.5 (LOSS)
Vanderbilt -7.0 (WIN)
Texas Tech +1.0 (TIE)

Good Luck This Week!
———————
Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!

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By Dave Consolazio, September 18, 2009 10:00 am

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

First thing’s first; sorry this thing is so damn late this week. Usually I like to get the Dime out on Friday mornings, and that obviously didn’t go as planned this week.

It’s been a very long and trying week for me personally, and it has kind of sent my schedule out of whack a bit. So it goes. Better (super) late than never, right? Next week will hopefully be back to normal.

Last weekend was certainly a roller coaster. After winning Thursday night and going 5-4 through the morning games, it looked like I was on my way to a nice week! Not so much. Five straight losses later and I find my week at the mercy of my lowly favorite team, the Oakland Raiders.

And wouldn’t you know it, they played their hearts out and got a cover. Would have loved to see them hang on for the win, but hey, one step at a time.

7-9 beat’s the hell out of last year’s 4-12 start. Let’s see if we can get over .500 this week!

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 7 – 9 – 0 (.438)
Without the spread: 10 – 6 – 0 (.625)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 1 – 1 – 0 (.500)

Season
With the spread: 7 – 9 – 0 (.438)
Without the spread: 10 – 6 – 0 (.625)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 1 – 1 – 0 (.500)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Tennessee (+6.5) @ Pittsburgh (-6.5) W
Kansas City (+13.0) @ Baltimore (-13.0) W
Philadelphia (-2.5) @ Carolina (+2.5) W
Miami (+4.0) @ Atlanta (-4.0) W
Detroit (+13.0) @ New Orleans (-13.0) W
Jacksonville (+7.0) @ Indianapolis (-7.0) W
San Diego (-9.0) @ Oakland (+9.0) W

THE BAD

Minnesota (-4.0) @ Cleveland (+4.0) L
Dallas (-6.0) @ Tampa Bay (+6.0) L
N.Y. Jets (+4.5) @ Houston (-4.5) L
St. Louis (+9.0) @ Seattle (-9.0) L
San Francisco (+6.0) @ Arizona (-6.0) L

THE COULD HAVE GONE EITHER WAY/NOT MY WAY THIS WEEK:

Denver (+4.0) @ Cincinnati (-4.0) L
Washington (+6.5) @ N.Y. Giants (-6.5) L
Chicago (+3.5) @ Green Bay (-3.5) L

THE “WHAT THE $%^@”?:

Buffalo (+10.5) @ New England (-10.5) L
Did it really take a highly improbable comeback for New England to come out on top here?

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

Tread lightly… lot’s of very difficult games to figure out this week.

Carolina (+6.0) @ Atlanta (-6.0)
I was really leaning towards making a case for the Panthers to bounce back this week after such a horrible performance last week, but I’m not sure that I can. You really never know what you are going to get out of Jake Delhomme; but in Atlanta, I’ll lean towards the bad one showing up.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

New Orleans (-1.0) @ Philadelphia (+1.0)
New Orleans goes absolutely nuts on offense and Philadelphia loses Donavan McNabb. Why such a low spread, Vegas? It isn’t a true philosophy pick as the Eagles DID win big last week and it was only Detroit that New Orleans beat; but I still think this spread says a lot about how bookmakers feel about how well the Eagles’ defense matches up here. We will see.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Philadelphia

Houston (+7.0) @ Tennessee (-7.0)
This one is a tough one, as I came into this season expecting good things out of Houston and last Sunday was such a terrible effort at home. The Texans should play better this week, but after a frustrating loss to Pittsburgh last week, Tennessee will likely get the job done in their home opener.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee

Minnesota (-9.5) @ Detroit (+9.5)
Detroit is likely going to have to wait to break their losing streak. If the let Mike Bell run all over them, what happens when the best RB in the league rolls into town? Hard to see Peterson not having a field day in this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Minnesota

New England (-3.0) @ N.Y. Jets (+3.0)
It took an extremely unlikely comeback for the Patriots at home to narrowly escape a Buffalo team that likely isn’t as good as this Jets team. Now they hit the road for this one? Very difficult game to figure out. I’m going to take the Brady-was-shaking-off-the-rust angle; if I’m right, and the 2007-offense returns, this will be one of the last times you’ll be able to get the Patriots at this small a number.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

Arizona (+3.0) @ Jacksonville (-3.0)
Not only did Arizona look off last week, historically they are terrible at traveling to the east coast. Keep in mind that as great as their playoff run was, this was an 8-8 Cardinals team last year in the regular season; they are beatable. An improved Jaguars team picks up the first win of their season this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Jacksonville

Oakland (+3.0) @ Kansas City (-3.0)
Have a coin nearby? Go ahead and flip it. You never know what you are going to get out of Jamarcus Russell; while some people simply like to write it off as “he sucks”, the truth is that he’s got a lot of talent, he just lacks consistancy. If he can make his throws Sunday, the Raiders defense and running game look good enough to win. If he can’t, Kansas City probably comes out on top. I’m going to say the Raiders do enough to win here; but this is “one of those games”.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Oakland

St. Louis (+10.0) @ Washington (-10.0)
St. Louis couldn’t have looked worse last weekend, and I’m probably making a big mistake taking them. But they’ve got enough talent on the offensive side of the ball to avoid being completely shut down a second straight week, and I’m just not confident enough in the Redskins’ offense to give up 10 points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Washington

Cincinnati (+9.5) @ Green Bay (-9.5)
Green Bay looks to be the real deal this season, but I can only imagine how infuriating it must be to have a win stolen from you like it was for the Bengals last week on the fluke Stokley touchdown in the closing seconds. Something tells me they’ve been waiting all week to make things right; and while they may not come out on top, I think they’ll at least make a game of it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

Tampa Bay (+4.5) @ Buffalo (-4.5)
Not sure whether the Patriots game was a fluke or not, but the Bills showed me more than enough to warrant taking them over the lowly Bucs this week. Hopefully they will come out with the same fire they did in New England; and actually keep it through the whole game this time.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Buffalo

Seattle (+1.0) @ San Francisco (-1.0)
San Francisco has been playing tough, competitive football ever since Mike Singletary took over as coach. It is so difficult to pick against this team, but on the flip side I really think Seattle might be poised for a big bounce-back year this season. I’ll take the Seahawks, but won’t be surprised if the 49ers make me pay for it like usual.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Seattle

Pittsburgh (-3.0) @ Chicago (+3.0)
The one and only philosophy pick of the week, no one is give Chicago any chance here. Jay Cutler was a complete disaster (and things won’t be any easier this week against Pittsburgh’s incredible defense), and the Steelers of course are one of the league’s best. Chicago also lost Brian Urlacher for the year. The line actually opened at -1.0 for Pittsburgh until it was bet down to 3, where it has stayed despite 85% of bets coming in on Chicago. Losing your captain and emotional leader and having a super-shaky QB? Sounds like a philosophy pick to me.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Chicago

Cleveland (+3.0) @ Denver (-3.0)
Honestly, I don’t have any opinion on this game; I don’t think either of these teams are very good, but if week one was any indication, Denver has a pretty good defense; they also have home field this week, so I’ll take them in this coin-flipper.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver

Baltimore (+3.0) @ San Diego (-3.0)
Very tricky game here. The spread seems off to me, considering the Chargers just had so much trouble with the Raiders. But then I remember that the Ravens just had quite a bit of trouble with the Cheifs, too. These will both be great teams in the AFC this year, and this should be a very good game. In what I think will be a close one, I have to take the points, and bank on San Diego having a bit of a MNF hangover as well.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Baltimore

N.Y. Giants (+3.0) @ Dallas (-3.0)
A big win over what projects to be a very bad Tampa Bay Bucs team doesn’t sell me on the Dallas Cowboys. This week we will see how they measure up against much stronger competition; and while the Gmen also have something to prove, I think I’m getting the better team with the points in this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: N.Y. Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *N.Y. Giants

Indianapolis (-3.0) @ Miami (+3.0)
This is a tough game to call as I expect it to be a low scoring one. Both teams played well on defense last week and didn’t do much offensively. In the end, I think Manning and the Colts come out on top; and I’ll have to reluctantly lay the three points on that.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 11 – 8 – 0 (.579)
COLLEGE FOOTBALL FANS: Check out the website I run with my best friend Sam, http://www.allpac10.com! Content updated daily.
Week 3 Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=203zB9RHj8c

Cal -13.5 (WIN)
Arizona/Iowa Under 41.5 (LOSS)
SMU -6.0 (LOSS)
Stanford -17.0 (WIN)

Good Luck This Week!
———————
Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!

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By Dave Consolazio, September 14, 2009 7:33 am

With the 2009 season right around the corner, California and Oregon look like decent bets to go over their season win totals while the Florida Gators are not likely to go undefeated.

Florida Gators Under 11 Regular Season Wins (-110)

The Florida Gators look poised to have another incredible season, returning Tim Tebow (easily one of the greatest college football quarterbacks of all time) and remarkably enough all 11 starters on what was an outstanding defense last year. It is easy to see why this team is being penciled in as a near sure thing to defend their national title.

I’m not going to give you a pitch on how much losing Percy Harvin and Louis Murphy will hurt this offense. It certainly will have an effect, but this team has so much talent and speed that they will do just fine. I’m just looking at good old fashioned history on this one.

The SEC, well known to be the most competitive conference in football, was formed in 1933. Putting your feelings about the SEC aside, you can’t deny that the level of play is extremely high and physical.

Since 1933, the Florida Gators have accomplished the feat of a regular season undefeated record ONE time. In 2006 it was Auburn that delivered their one loss. In 2008 it was Ole Miss. Running the table in any conference is difficult; doing so in the SEC is virtually impossible.

I think this bet has a very high probability of pushing, as I expect Florida to drop only one game somewhere. But I think there is a better chance that two games get away from the Gators that there is they go undefeated, so I’ll take a shot on the Under.

California Bears Over 9 Regular Season Wins (-155)

Cal has been such a difficult to peg team over the last five years, showing flashes of brilliance where they look unbeatable and then inexplicably dropping games they should not be losing. As such, it’s hard to have much confidence in this wager, but the hype around this team is real.

Having a Heisman Trophy Caliber running back in Javhid Best and an outstanding defense, this team seems to have the recipe for success down pat. If they play to the level they are capable of playing, they should be able to put together a 10-win season.

They’d have to lose four games for this bet to end up a loser. Assuming they don’t get caught looking ahead to Oregon the week they play Minnesota, the Bears should enter the Oregon game at 3-0, meaning if they could pick up one win out of three against Oregon and at home against USC or Oregon, they have a good chance to cash, or at the very least push. If they take two of those three, all systems are go.

Oregon will still be sorting issues out on both of their lines, which may give Cal a chance to beat them in Eugene. The nice thing about this wager is that three of Cal’s toughest games; Minnesota, Oregon, and USC; come right away. You’ll know where you stand a mere five games into the season.

Oregon Ducks Over 8 Regular Season Wins (+240)

I don’t expect this one to cash, but it is a pretty exceptional price for a boom-or-bust team that could easily be on the boom side. It also provides a bit of a semi-hedge to the Cal wager; if Oregon comes out on top, their regular season win chances get a lot better.

Oregon’s offense will be excellent this year. I’m not as worried about the O-Line as some are, and think it will be just fine. The D-Line raises some question marks, but the LBs and secondary are both very fast and athletic. This will be a big play defense, and if they can succeed in even slowing down opposing teams, that should be enough for this powerhouse offense to do it’s thing.

I can see things going the other way, too. Time of possession killed the Ducks last year, and a completely rebuilt D-Line with virtually no game experience doesn’t lead me to believe this year will be leaps and bounds better. It’s possible that this year will be a frustrating one for the Ducks.

But one of the nations most explosive and athletic teams at +240 to surpass eight wins? Of arguably the five most difficult games on the schedule; Boise State, Utah, California, USC, and Oregon State; Oregon will be at home for FOUR of these games. And they have plenty of motivation to get revenge on Boise State (their one road game of the five) for beating them on their home turf last year.

An 8-4 season seems very realistic to me. 7-5 may be slightly more likely than 9-3, but not nearly enough to cover the +240 being offered. Another nice bet since you will know exactly where you stand when three of the toughest games come in the first four opponents.

(http://sbrforum.com/Betting%20Articles/NCAAF/11906/three-college-win-totals-worth-taking-look-at.aspx)

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By Dave Consolazio, September 10, 2009 10:00 am

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

((I spend a lot of time typing this up every week, mainly for the enjoyment of my readers. If you are receiving this email, it is because I feel like you will have a good time reading it and/or you asked me to send it to you. This is not meant to be spam mail. You will only receive one email from me a week. If you want to be taken off the list, let me know, and I’ll remove you immediately… but its much better for my pride if you just delete it every week and let me think that you kinda care. Thanks!))

I can’t believe it. Football. It’s back. Yay.

Sorry, let’s try that again.

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!1!! HHDFHTHRU^%U^TU^TUJRTJTHJHERGREGTEAARTJ!

That’s more like it!

Not only is football back, but so is the DIME! It’s leaner and meaner than ever before! (Well, by leaner, I mean that my fat ass is slightly less fat thanks to 70 pounds lost since February, and by meaner, I mean, nothing has changed).

My awesome wit and commentary are back, as is my top notch handicapping! (Don’t congratulate him for 70 pounds. He put on like 40 before he lost the 70.)

And of course, where would we be without that charming voice in my head?

I’ll end this rambling little intro with a copy and paste from last year’s week 1, because yeah, I’m a time saver;

“But remember above all else that this is FREE. You get what you pay for. It’s like when you go on a job fair and the booths give you free things like pens and yo-yos. Do they run out of ink and get knotted up faster then the high quality ones do? Most definitely. But you can’t complain, because its free!
So without further ado, lets kick of my broken yo-yo pro football column!”

THE RECORD

2008 Season
With the spread: 130 – 119 – 7 (.522)
Without the spread: 159 – 96 – 1 (.624)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 25 – 11 – 0 (.694)

2007 Season
With the spread: 124 – 123 – 9 (.502)
Without the spread: 157 – 99 – 0 (.613)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 14 – 7 – 2 (.667)

2006 Season
With the spread: 126 – 121 – 9 (.510)
Without the spread: 154 – 102 – 0 (.602)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 24 – 22 – 2 (.522)

2005 Season
With the spread: 138 – 111 – 7 (.554)
Without the spread: 167 – 89 – 0 (.652)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 27 – 13 – 1 (.675)
This is the section where I list my total record as the season progresses.

With the spread: 0 – 0 – 0 (.000)
Without the spread: 0 – 0 – 0 (.000)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 0 – 0 – 0 (.000)
With the Spread – I will explain in detail what the spread means for those of you who do not know in THE PICKS section.
Without the Spread – Who I pick to win the game, outright.
^^Philosophical Picks^^ – If it were as easy as just crunching the numbers, everyone could do it. These are human beings with motivational factors on and off the field. If I make a pick that looks past the stats at the human element of the game, a (^) will signify that. Hitting 63% lifetime with these… for more info, check out this video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0horQ0eLmDw

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

Here I will just remind you who I took last week and whether or not I was right or wrong

THE PICKS

And where would we be without actually picking some winners?

*Here is the layout of my picks, and an explanation of how the spread works. Veteran readers can skip ahead to THE REAL THING!, but first timers or forgetful people should read on. Don’t worry if you’re confused at first, it will make sense as time goes on. Still, I’ll do my best to explain.*

TEAM ONE (+6.5) @ TEAM TWO (-6.5)
The team on the left side is always on the road, and the team on the right side is always at home. I will use this area to provide commentary as to why I’m picking who I’m picking. The number in parenthesis is called “The Spread”. This is how Las Vegas makes money. If you could bet on any two teams on an even playing field, you could always take the favorite, and you would win quite often. With the spread, things are evened out a bit. If you take the weaker team (in this case team one), you are going to be given X amount of points (in this case 6.5). So, lets say the final score to the game is “Team One” 7, “Team Two” 10. Team Two won the game, but not in Vegas terms. Add the 6.5 Vegas gave to Team One, and the score was “Team One” 13.5, “Team Two” 10. So, if you put money on Team Two, even though they won, they didn’t win by enough to “cover the spread” (which means outscore Team One with the extra points), so you lost money. So when you take the underdog (the team with the extra points), you add those points to their final total. If you take the favorite, you have to subtract number X from your total (So in the 10 – 7 game, minus 6.5, Team Two loses 3.5 – 7). The reason numbers usually have .5’s on them is so there can not be a tie. If you’re still confused, don’t worry, it’ll clear up. If you got it, well done!
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: TEAM TWO (-6.5)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: TEAM TWO (-6.5)

THE REAL THING!

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

Last year I had a BRUTAL week 1 at 4-12… let’s not repeat that misfortune! Please Gambling Gods? Please?

THURSDAY

Tennessee (+6.5) @ Pittsburgh (-6.5)
I’m sorry, 6.5 points? Pittsburgh is going to be an absolute force again this year, and they will be as difficult a defending super bowl champion as they come. But have we really all completely forgotten how dominant the Titans were last year? Losing Albert Haynesworth hurts, no doubt, but this team started 10-0 last year and still has most of the same pieces on defense and the top-notch running back duo of Johnson and White. Pittsburgh may win this one, but I’m looking for a grind, not the comfortable victory everyone seems to be chalking up.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

SUNDAY

Kansas City (+13.0) @ Baltimore (-13.0)
I really wanted to take Kansas City here as I hate the idea of laying so many points like this in week one. But I just couldn’t find a way to. Baltimore should be just as dominant as usual on defense, and with a more experienced Joe Flacco and the addition of rookie Ray Rice, the offense should be even better than last year. All of Baltimore’s losses last year came against elite opponents; this team doesn’t drop its guard against weak opponents, and while Kansas City should be improved this year, going into Baltimore will not be any fun.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

Philadelphia (-2.5) @ Carolina (+2.5)
Here’s another game that I wanted to take Carolina in, but I just couldn’t find a good reason to. All of the Vick drama aside, this Philadelphia team looks really strong, especially if it can stay healthy. Asante Samuel VS. Jake Delhomme looks like a pick-6 made in heaven, doesn’t it? Philly starts the season off right.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

Minnesota (-4.0) @ Cleveland (+4.0)
No week is going to go without a complete “what the @#$#” game, especially week one. Might as well be the Favre circus. This Browns team doesn’t have a whole lot of redeeming qualities on paper, but they do tend to pull out a really tough game every now and then; why not this one? If they cheat run all game and force Favre to beat them… well, I’ll take my chances. I’m still just completely baffled as to why Minnesota made this move, but that’s a whole different newsletter.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Cleveland

Miami (+4.0) @ Atlanta (-4.0)
Personally, I don’t think that the huge step back that everyone is predicting for the Dolphins will be that… huge. This should still be a competitive football team this year. That said, Atlanta looks poised to do huge things this year, and “competitive” won’t be enough to steal the home opener away from a deadly Matt Ryan and Michael Turner combination.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

Detroit (+13.0) @ New Orleans (-13.0)
Much like the Baltimore game that I didn’t want to lay this kind of chalk, what choice do I have here? IN New Orleans? This could be the year it all finally comes together for the Saints, and even if it isn’t, not a whole lot of teams are going to be able to stop them from putting up 35+, and the Lions certainly aren’t one of the teams that will. Just can’t see Detroit keeping up or slowing this juggernaut offense down.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

Jacksonville (+7.0) @ Indianapolis (-7.0)
Maybe I’m giving Jacksonville too much credit, but 7 points seems like way too many here. The Colts will do just fine this year, but there is a lot of turnover on this team. Head Coach Tony Dungy, Offensive Coordinator Tom Moore, Offensive Line Coach Howard Mudd are all retired, and Manning’s go-to guy Marvin Harrison is gone as well. Jacksonville had a very nice draft and I think they will bounce back a bit this year; it starts with a nice effort against a Colts team that will be working out the kinks on their new identity.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

Denver (+4.0) @ Cincinnati (-4.0)
The Bengals had one of my favorite drafts this offseason, and a healthy Carson Palmer always makes them a heck of a lot more likely to be relevant on Sundays. The Broncos are going in the opposite direction completely; this just looks like an awful football team, and you have to wonder if they are regretting parting ways with Mike Shanahan. After seeing the video of Brandon Marshall completely screwing off at practice, and now getting word that they are trying to lock him down long term? Really? If this were the Raiders, we’d be hearing about how completely stupid Al Davis is and what a joke the organization is. Instead, it’s a non-story. But I digress, that’s neither here nor there; Cinci wins by a TD+
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati

Dallas (-6.0) @ Tampa Bay (+6.0)
This one hurts me so, so bad. There is just absolutely nothing to like about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers here. 82% of the public is on Dallas on the spread, and 88% are on Dallas on the moneyline. Every part of me wants to take Dallas as this looks like the easiest pick on the board this week; but isn’t that exactly what PHILOSOPHICAL PICKS are all about? It’s going to hurt going against the grain all year, but it has treated me very well for the last four years (63% winners in 148 picks), and there really isn’t any reason on paper that Dallas shouldn’t be a double digit favorite. Tampa Bay it is.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

N.Y. Jets (+4.5) @ Houston (-4.5)
Love the Jets decision to go with Mark Sanchez, and wish him all the best. Gotta give you a blast from the past when I had him on the debate show I hosted my freshman year at USC (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-iVOBLUyek)… But that has absolutely nothing to do with this write-up and I apologize (no I don’t, I’m all about shameless self-promotion). I actually think he’ll do fine this week, but I’m expecting a nice season from the Texans; the pieces seems to be in place for good things to happen, and at home against a rookie quarterback, I’ll lay the chalk.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston

St. Louis (+9.0) @ Seattle (-9.0)
Seattle is a prime candidate to bounce back this season after what was a very disappointing season in 2008. With Hasselbeck back healthy, the addition of T.J Houshmandzadeh, and a year of valuable experience for the young players on last year’s team, they may challenge for the NFC West if Arizona leaves the door open. That said, I’m not quite comfortable banking on them for a double digit victory without seeing it all come together on the field first. They win the home opener, but I have to take the points with the Rams at this point in time.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle

Washington (+6.5) @ N.Y. Giants (-6.5)
Very interesting game here. Definitely strikes me as one of those “I’m going to lose no matter what I pick” type of games. I take Washington banking on their solid defense, and the Giants solve it and go crazy on offense. I take the Giants, and it ends up being decided by a field goal. So it goes. In New York, I just have to bank on the Giants coming out strong, especially on defense; and doing enough in this one to cover.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: N.Y. Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: N.Y. Giants

San Francisco (+6.0) @ Arizona (-6.0)
Another toughy. San Francisco played teams so tough down the stretch last year that it really looks like Mike Singletary can find a way to keep his unit competitive against anyone. 6 points could prove to be too many, but until Arizona gives me a reason to believe the offense won’t be as high powered as last year, I’ll have to run with them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona

Chicago (+3.5) @ Green Bay (-3.5)
Two very, very intriguing teams this year. With the Brett Favre circus taking all of the media attention away from the rest of the division, these two teams have somewhat flown under the radar; especially Green Bay, who might really have a special season if it all comes together for them. Need to know a lot more about both of these teams on the field before I can really get a feel for them, but I can’t help but think about how much more dominant Matt Forte can be this year with a QB like Jay Cutler under center. This should be a great one to watch that could go either way; I’ll take the points and the upset, though.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago

MONDAY

Buffalo (+10.5) @ New England (-10.5)
I know what you might be thinking, philosophy pick, right? Well, the Patriots don’t exactly play by the rules. I haven’t forgotten how they went straight up video game style on the league in 2007… and that was when the offense was just getting used to each other. The Patriots holes on defense will expose themselves at points this season; but this won’t be one of them. And the offense? Pull out your PS3 or XBOX controllers and see if you can keep up.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Minnesota

San Diego (-9.0) @ Oakland (+9.0)
And here it is, the absolute philosophical pick slam dunk of the week. No one in their right mind is giving Oakland a chance, no one at all. We all saw what happened in the preseason against the Saints. We’ve all seen how easily teams run over the Raiders; what answer will they have for Tomlinson and Sproles? How will they slow down Rivers passing attack?

And then the Seymour trade. The guy doesn’t show up, which on any other team the media would be picking on the player. But it’s the Raiders. What a joke of an organization. What a stupid trade. Hahahaha.

Remember last year on Monday Night when the Denver Broncos completely undressed the Raiders 41-14? The Raiders haven’t forgotten. Being humiliated on your own turf on opening night Monday Night Football is not something you are going to let happen two years in a row.
On paper, this one looks like a 45-7 San Diego victory. But on the field, the Raiders will see what they can do about getting everyone to stop laughing.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Oakland

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 4 – 3 – 0 (.571)
COLLEGE FOOTBALL FANS: Check out the website I run with my best friend Sam, http://www.allpac10.com! Content updated daily.
In this section I list my top plays of the week in college football. Since I explain each of these picks in depth in my youtube videos, I’ll just list the picks here instead of typing up the commentary and repeating myself (as if once isn’t bad enough, right?)

Week 1 Video Here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZQC85rOTd0

Oregon +3.5 (LOSS)
Illinois -6.5 (LOSS)
Cal -21.0 (WIN)
UAB -5.5 (WIN)
Penn State -26.5 (LOSS)
Stanford -16.5 (WIN)
SDSU/UCLA Under 51.5 (WIN)

Week 2 Video Here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EWkPVQdpABk

USC -6.5
Notre Dame -3.0
Texas Tech -27.5
Washington State +2.0
Tulsa -17.5
SMU/UAB Over 60
UCLA/Ten Under 46
Wash/Idaho Over 51.5

That’s it for me this week! Good luck and welcome back!

Comments Off

By Dave Consolazio, September 7, 2009 7:35 am

It’s not always fun being Irish, especially if you’ve been on the wrong side of the wagers in the Charlie Weis era. Lured away from the Patriots after the 2004 season where he had been the team’s offensive coordinator, Weis’ four seasons as head football coach at Notre Dame have been rocky to say the least.  Did the win in the recent Hawaii Bowl signal a turnaround for Weis at South Bend?

On a day filled with festivities and beer guzzling like St. Patrick’s Day, there is little doubt that it is good to be Irish. Irish and non-Irish alike don themselves in green, drink happily, and have parades through major cities.

But for the other 364 days a year, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish are not having quite as much fun being Irish. A win over the rebuilding Hawaii Warriors in the Hawaii Bowl to break a 14-year bowl slump (0-9 in bowls over that stretch) proved to be a bright spot in an otherwise lackluster season; but it was a fairly dim bright spot. After all, as nice as bowl wins always are, a mediocre bowl against a mediocre non-BCS team isn’t exactly where Notre Dame wants to be.

Charlie Weis’s tenure at Notre Dame has been confusing to say the least.

2005 Notre Dame Betting Stats
Against The Spread: 7-5 (started season 7-1)
Over/Under: 7-4-1
Taking over Ty Willingham’s team in 2005 that was 11-13 combined in ’03 and ’04, Weis seemingly made an immediate impact, coaching the team to a 9-2 regular season record that earned them a berth to the Fiesta Bowl, which they went on to lose to Ohio State. The Notre Dame front office signed him to a contract extension just seven games into this season, locking Weis up through 2015. The successful season also lead to success on the recruiting board, as Notre Dame pulled in a Top 10 recruiting class (According to www.rivals.com).

2006 Notre Dame Betting Stats
Against The Spread: 4-8-1 (books compensated for Notre Dame’s turnaround; after their 7-1 ATS start in ‘05, they went 4-12-1 through 2006, favorites in 14 of the 17 games.)
Over/Under: 7-6
In 2006, QB Brady Quinn’s senior year, Notre Dame’s success continued; away from the betting window, anyway. At 9-2 they earned another BCS berth to the Sugar Bowl, this time getting crushed by LSU. While the bowl wins were still alluding the Irish, they were looking a lot closer to the great Lou Holtz team from 1998 to 1993 (six straight finishes in the Top 13, five in the top six, five bowl wins) then they were to the mediocre team they were in Willingham’s last two seasons as head coach. Another Top 10 recruiting class, led by top recruit QB Jimmy Clausen, and the future was looking bright for the Fighting Irish.

2007 Notre Dame Betting Stats
Against The Spread: 5-7
Over/Under: 3-9
And then just like that, the bottom dropped out. Quinn’s departure seemed to take with it anything resembling a competent offense – not that the defense was looking any better. Weis, now two years removed from Willingham’s team and with two Top 10 recruiting classes under him, stumbled through a 3-9 season, the team’s first time under five wins since 1963. Lousy play at the QB position obviously contributed, but the defense was abysmal as well, averaging over four touchdowns against per game (28.75) on the season.

How does a team with such a storied history, coming off two straight BCS bowl appearances and two straight Top 10 recruiting classes fall from grace this hard? Responsibility of course needs to be placed on the players, but it is extremely difficult not to point the finger at Weis and his coaching staff. Yet somehow, despite this terrible season (perhaps potential recruits saw the opportunity to earn immediate playing time?), the Fighting Irish had the second best recruiting class in the country.

2008 Notre Dame Betting Stats
Against The Spread: 7-6
Over/Under: 7-5-1
All that brings us to last season, which really didn’t tell us anything. Sure, the Irish looked pretty sharp in most of their wins last season.  But do you know how many of those wins came against an opponent that finished the season over .500?

Just one, their 6-point win over Navy. The combined record of the opponents Notre Dame beat in 2008 was 29-58. Each time Notre Dame faced a good team (other than Navy), they fell. In their lowest point of the season, the Fighting Irish lost as a 19½-point favorite at home to the then 2-8 Syracuse Orangemen. Rumors swirled that this would spell the end to Weis’s stint as head coach, and a 38-3 loss to USC didn’t help quiet those rumors. But Notre Dame decided to stick with Weis, and they were “rewarded” with their first bowl victory in 14 years.

So as we celebrate this magical St. Patrick’s day and find ourselves drunk enough to believe we can actually see into the future, what can we expect from the 2009 Notre Dame Fighting Irish? On the one hand, Weis now has 3 straight top 10 recruiting classes to work with, and while this year’s class barely cracked the top 25, top linebacker recruit Manti Te’o looks to have the tools to make an immediate impact up the middle on defense. On the other hand, after two straight poor seasons (I’m not impressed by last season), is it safe to assume that Weis just rode Willingham’s recruits (namely Quinn) to success those first two years, and isn’t good at getting the most out of his young talent?

Wins over Washington, Washington State, and Purdue look given. Losses to USC and at Pittsburgh look pretty obvious as well. The other seven games? Well, that all depends on Weis and his coaching staff getting the most out of their players; and, of course, a little bit of the luck of the Irish.

Betting Advice
Always be weary when betting on the Irish ATS, especially if they get hot. This is a nationally adored team that will sometimes get an extra half point or two knocked off of their side to compensate for their popularity. If this team comes out of the gate strong ATS, consider fading them down the stretch, especially against the less-nationally-recognizable opponents.

While it is still too early to tell anything definitively, I’d consider leaning on the OVER early in the season. Weis has taken over the play-calling and the offense looked excellent against Hawaii. Clausen may take a step forward this year, and I believe public perception on this team is still negative in regards to their offensive ability. Notre Dame opens up with Nevada, Michigan, Michigan State, and Purdue; all games I could very easily see being high scoring affairs.

(http://sbrforum.com/Betting%20Articles/NCAAF/10536/betting-notre-dame-the-luck-the-irish.aspx)