Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Happy Turkey Day everyone!

Hopefully most of you will be spending your Thanksgiving around friends and family, enjoying a nice home-cooked meal.

Me? Thanks to the kind folks at SBR who decided to fire me with no warning/reason, I’ll be spending Thanksgiving packing up my stuff for a drive halfway across the country this upcoming weekend. At least my Dad is out here to help.

So we’ll be going to a restaurant to eat Thanksgiving dinner. Once again, I can’t thank SBR enough!

Ok, ok, enough bitterness. I haven’t slept well at all this week, anxious about the impending move, so I am, admittedly, cranky.

But I am thankful to be headed home to my loving friends and family, and to get to work on new and exciting business ventures.

I’m also thankful that, despite not being around extended family, I still have the chance to publically humiliate myself thanks to the Dime. What would I do without it?

All kidding aside, I’m also thankful for all of you that take the time to read my stuff every week (or even once every now and then) and support me. It really means a lot to me, so thank you for that.

You’d better not be reading this without a drumstick or some other foodstuff in your hand! And if you are, why on earth aren’t you eating?! It’s Thanksgiving!

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 9 – 7 – 0 (.563)
Without the spread: 13 – 3 – 0 (.813)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 1 – 0 – 0 (1.000)

Season
With the spread: 81 – 78 – 1 (.509)
Without the spread: 109 – 51 – 0 (.681)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 10 – 5 – 0 (.667)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Miami (+3.5) @ Carolina (-3.5)
Seattle (+10.5) @ Minnesota (-10.5)
Atlanta (+7.0) @ N.Y. Giants (-7.0)
Buffalo (+9.0) @ Jacksonville (-9.0)
Cincinnati (-9.0) @ Oakland (+9.0)
San Diego (-4.0) @ Denver (+4.0)
N.Y. Jets (+10.5) @ New England (-10.5)
Philadelphia (-3.0) @ Chicago (+3.0)
Tennessee (+4.5) @ Houston (-4.5)

THE BAD

Indianapolis (-1.5) @ Baltimore (+1.5)
New Orleans (-11.0) @ Tampa Bay (+11.0)
Washington (+11.0) @ Dallas (-11.0)
Pittsburgh (-10.5) @ Kansas City (+10.5)
Cleveland (+3.0) @ Detroit (-3.0)
San Francisco (+6.5) @ Green Bay (-6.5)
Arizona (-9.0) @ St. Louis (+9.0)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

THURSDAY

Green Bay (-11.5) @ Detroit (+11.5)
The Packers are obviously the better team, but Detroit is going to be playing with a lot of confidence and a lot of excitement after the thrilling win over Cleveland. Confidence/excitement may not be enough to pick up the win, but I do think it could be enough to make for a decent Thanksgiving Day game.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

Oakland (+13.5) @ Dallas (-13.5)
Trust me, I’m not going to go all “Oakland is good now that they have Gradkowski leading them” on you. That said, should Dallas really be giving up two touchdowns here? They’ve shown very serious issues against press coverage (something the Raiders are capable of applying), scoring only 7 points in each of the last two weeks. This one has the looks of an ugly, low-scoring game to me, not a Dallas blowout.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

N.Y. Giants (-6.0) @ Denver (+6.0)
Denver is done. Whatever cloud they were playing on has dissipated, and after the smoke has cleared, they appear to be the mediocre team we all thought they were coming into the season. The Giants haven’t been anything special, but they have more than enough to win this one by a TD I believe.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: N.Y. Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: N.Y. Giants

SUNDAY

Seattle (-3.0) @ St. Louis (+3.0)
Can’t believe I’m doing this, but I’m taking St. Louis. Seattle’s defense is just so bad that even the Rams should be able to put up points (heavy load of Steven Jackson is likely), and they are just to inconsistant to have any faith in offensively. I may end up regretting it, but I’ll take my chances on the lowly Rams.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *St. Louis

Carolina (+3.0) @ N.Y. Jets (-3.0)
Complete honesty; I have no idea at all what to expect from this game. Two underacheiving teams with plenty of issues and inconsistant QB play. My model says 31-27 Carolina, so I’ll just run with that, and take the points while I’m at it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Carolina

Tampa Bay (+12.0) @ Atlanta (-12.0)
Tampa Bay’s defense is horrible, and Atlanta should come into this game plenty angry and plenty motivated. It has been a disappointing season in Atlanta, and this is not only a game they need, but a game I think they will enjoy after the frustrating OT loss to the Giants. I’m expecting a fairly one-sided affair.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

Miami (-3.5) @ Buffalo (+3.5)
Everything about this game screams Miami, they are clearly the better team and they just proved they could go out and win on the road against a similar looking team in Carolina. But for whatever reason, this just strikes me as “one of those games”. Buffalo always seems to be just a play or two away; maybe this week they make those plays.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Buffalo

Washington (+9.0) @ Philadelphia (-9.0)
Washington has proven, in my opinion, that they deserve a little more respect than this after the win over Denver (fallen from grace or not) and the near-shutout of Dallas. Philadelphia hasn’t exactly been dominant this season. I expect them to pick up the win, but I’ll take the points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

Cleveland (+14.0) @ Cincinnati (-14.0)
Much like Atlanta, I expect Cinci to be a team possessed this week after letting that Raider game slip away. Cleveland’s offense has been useless up until that last game; and it WAS Detroit. Expect things to return to normal for both teams this week, and this one to be a lot less interesting than the first meeting between these two teams earlier in the season.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati

Indianapolis (-3.5) @ Houston (+3.5)
Houston has lost their last two games 20-17, and Indy has been sneaking by teams by very slim margins. This one just feels like another 3 or 4 point victory for the Colts, meaning this spread was, in my opinion, set perfectly. I’ll go with the score landing on three and take the Texans.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

Jacksonville (+3.0) @ San Francisco (-3.0)
The Jaguars have actually, against my will, made believers out of me. Maurice Jones-Drew is always a force, and the team seems to be picking up some confidence. I like them to upset the 49ers here, who still seem to be just a small step behing where they need to be.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Jacksonville

Kansas City (+13.5) @ San Diego (-13.5)
Toss up here, but I can’t imagine Kansas City matching their effort from last week. San Diego is red-hot, and I’m too scared to pick against them at this point, even with all these points dangling in front of me.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

Chicago (+10.5) @ Minnesota (-10.5)
Yes, Chicago is bad. Yes, Minnesota is outstanding. I’m still not willing to give up 10.5 points in what is always a physical, smashmouth rivalry game. Chicago just kept it close against Philadelphia, and I’ll be looking for them to do the same against the Vikings.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Minnesota

Arizona (+3.0) @ Tennessee (-3.0)
The Titans, and more noticeably Vince Young, are back. Young has pumped the team full of energy, and they have responded extremely well on both sides of the ball. While it will likely end up being too little too late, I wouldn’t tell that to the Titans right now; and i wouldn’t go against them at home right now, either.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee

Pittsburgh (+2.5) @ Baltimore (-2.5)
Even if Big Ben plays as it appears he will be, I don’t expect him to be at 100%. Baltimore has been so close all season to getting over the hump, and this is their chance. I expect them to take it with Polamalu out and Big Ben nursing a concussion.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

MONDAY

New England (+2.0) @ New Orleans (-2.0)
Wow, what a great game this should be. Will be a lot of fun to see just how good the Saints are, and will also be fun to see how the Patriots’ defense responds to this opportunity to prove themselves. The Pats have been winning big games like this for almost a decade now; the Saints, not so much. I’ll take the Pats, but it does look like a good ol’ fashion coinflip.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *New England

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 37 – 29 – 6 (.561)

COLLEGE FOOTBALL FANS: Check out the website I run with my best friend Sam, http://www.allpac10.com!

Week 13 Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5FEK5tRgBQ

Rutgers -3.0
Central Florida -3.0
Nebraska/Colorado Over 38.0
Nevada/Boise State Over 70.0

Good Luck This Week!
———————
Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!

Hey everyone! Sorry, I know this is way too close to game time to be useful to anyone, but still wanted to get it out for keeping an accurate records’ sake. Will try to get the rest of the Dime out a bit earlier this week!

Miami (+3.5) @ Carolina (-3.5)
I think Miami is a much better football team than they get credit for. They are splod on both sides of the ball, and while they aren’t on the level they were last year, they can still compete. Losing Ronnie Brown hurts quite a bit, but I think the team has enough to rally and prove that they can still win without him. Carolina is starting to pick up some momentum, but I think the Dolphins can pull off the upset tonight.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Miami

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

It’s a running joke among fans (and critics) of the show HOUSE how formulaic every episode is. Goes a little something like…

Opening scene, random people, one of them (usually not the one you’d expect) starts spazzing out – House takes the case, tells his team to run a bunch of tests while insulting them – patient gets worse (commercial break) – House and the gang treat the patient and he seems to be better but then gets much worse (another commercial) – House talks to his pal Wilson about something non-case related, and then it magically hits him what’s wrong with the patient.

Example: Wilson: “Are you hungry?” House: “No, you idiot, if I was hungry I would have stolen your cheeseburger (dramatic pause)”

Of course, it’s asperger’s syndrome, and House would have never realized it if he hadn’t have said burger.

Why am I blathering about House? Because I just realized that the Dime works the exact same way.

Dave goes .500 – Talks about how hard it is to break .500 – Dave goes on a winning streak – In a great mood, witty (to the best of his limited ability anyway), feels smart/knowledgeable about football – Dave goes on a losing streak – Hates football, cranky, wonders where it all went wrong, wonders why he sucks so much, realize he doesn’t know anything about football and can predict games about as well as he can predict weather – Season ends at right around .500.

Of course, what saves House is the excellent dramatic elements outside of the formulaic case, as well as his witty banter.

What saves the Dime?

Ummm… err…

At least my Philosophical Picks don’t suck, right?

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 6 – 9 – 0 (.400)
Without the spread: 11 – 4 – 0 (.733)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 1 – 0 – 0 (1.000)

Season
With the spread: 72 – 71 – 1 (.503)
Without the spread: 96 – 48 – 0 (.667)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 9 – 5 – 0 (.643)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Chicago (+3.5) @ San Francisco (-3.5)
Atlanta (-1.5) @ Carolina (+1.5)
Denver (-3.5) @ Washington (+3.5)
Detroit (+16.5) @ Minnesota (-16.5)
Philadelphia @ San Diego (Pick’em)
Baltimore (-10.5) @ Cleveland (+10.5)
THE BAD

Cincinnati (+7.0) @ Pittsburgh (-7.0)
Tampa Bay (+10.0) @ Miami (-10.0)
New Orleans (-13.5) @ St. Louis (+13.5)
Jacksonville (+6.5) @ N.Y. Jets (-6.5)
Buffalo (+8.5) @ Tennessee (-8.5)
Kansas City (+2.0) @ Oakland (-2.0)
Dallas (-3.0) @ Green Bay (+3.0)
Seattle (+9.0) @ Arizona (-9.0)
New England (+2.5) @ Indianapolis (-2.5)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

Not seeing the upsets this week… can only hope the favorites show up.

THURSDAY

Miami (+3.5) @ Carolina (-3.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Miami (WIN)

SUNDAY

Indianapolis (-1.5) @ Baltimore (+1.5)
All streaks must come to an end, and I think Indy’s does this week. Plenty of history and hard-fought battles between these two teams, and the Ravens have shown the ability to pressure Manning in the past. After a sluggish start, the Ravens seem to have found a bit of a grove (minus the slip-up in Cinci), and I just have the feeling they pull off the upset.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Baltimore

Seattle (+10.5) @ Minnesota (-10.5)
Well, Seattle bit me pretty hard last week, letting an early lead get away AND giving up enough to not get the cover, either. Considering what a powerhouse Minnesota is, I just can’t put my trust in the Seahawks, even if it is a whole-lotta points. Their defense just isn’t what it used to be.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Minnesota

New Orleans (-11.0) @ Tampa Bay (+11.0)
I’m actually laughing as I type this, because I KNOW that New Orleans is going to put it all together and blow out the Bucs now that I’m finally picking against them. That said, the Saints have fallen into this awful habit of letting everyone they play stick around, and Tampa Bay has been playing with a lot of confidence since the QB chance. I’ll take the 11 points, shaking my head the whole time.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

Atlanta (+7.0) @ N.Y. Giants (-7.0)
Similar resume for these two teams; they’ve both been underacheiving quite a bit. I was expecting Atlanta to be getting 3 or 4 points, but 7? The Giants have not done anything this season to warrant being a 7-point favorite over a good football team. At home, I think they come out on top, but only by a field goal or so.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: N.Y. Giants

Washington (+11.0) @ Dallas (-11.0)
Hard to pass on all these points in an NFC East rivalry game, but Dallas is the substantially better team. It is also a fairly perfect philosophy-like scenario that Washington is coming off of a big uplifting win and Dallas is coming off of a frustrating and embarassing loss. Books just seem to be begging you to take Washington in this spot. Alas, it isn’t a “true” philosophy pick, but it’s good enough for me.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

Pittsburgh (-10.5) @ Kansas City (+10.5)
It all comes down to whether or not Pittsburgh shows up. Considering they traveled to superior-AFC-west-opponent Denver’s house and beat them by 18, it is hard to make a case for the lowly Chiefs.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

Buffalo (+9.0) @ Jacksonville (-9.0)
The Jaguars have become “one of those teams” for me over the last few seasons. Buffalo looked to be in good shape last week against Tennessee, but then the wheels completely fell off. I don’t really get either of these teams. I figure it will play out a little something like Maurice Jones-Drew gets tons of carries and yards, the Jags score about 24, and Buffalo scores about 17-20; but again, what do I know? I feel more comfortable WITH the points in this one than giving them up.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Jacksonville

Cleveland (+3.0) @ Detroit (-3.0)
Wow. I’d flip a coin, but heads/tails wouldn’t quite do these two justice; I need an awful/dreadful coin to flip. My model says Cleveland 10 – Detroit 17. I won’t bother trying to analyze what will just come down to ugly bounces and mistakes anyway; I’ll just go with the computer.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Detroit

San Francisco (+6.5) @ Green Bay (-6.5)
Green Bay’s defense is something of a mystery; they either show up and completely dominate, or they get lit up to the tune of 30+ points. Considering they are facing a less-than-explosive offense this week, I’ll say they build on last week’s big win and pick up another one by a TD or more here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

Arizona (-9.0) @ St. Louis (+9.0)
Arizona flexed their offensive muscles last week against Seattle in coming back and covering the large spread, and while St. Louis’s effort against the Saints was admirable, it doesn’t change the fact that they are a very bad football team. I don’t expect as strong of an effort this week, and the Cardinals should roll.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona

Cincinnati (-9.0) @ Oakland (+9.0)
Well, I’m not thrilled about having to take pathetic Oakland, but they are a Philosophy Pick this week. Last week they were favored at home and were expected to win over KC; instead, they came up short. This week, they are still at home, and this time around they are a dog. As the theory goes, they should be hungry for redemption this week. A few other things I like about Oakland here; Cinci is coming off of two straight huge emotional wins over Baltimore and Pittsburgh, and it will be hard to get up for a game like this. Also, Jamarcus Russell is officially benched, Thank God. Gradkowski may be nothing special, but he won’t give away the game like Jamarcus does. Can’t take the outright upset, but I like the Raiders to make it a game.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati

San Diego (-4.0) @ Denver (+4.0)
That image of Josh McDaniels emphatically pumping his fist after defeating the Patriots seems to be a distant memory now, doesn’t it? Three straight losses later, and we are back in the familiar position of San Diego being able to take over control of the division with a win over the Broncos. I’d love to say that the Broncos have what it takes to dig deep and come up with a big win here… but I just don’t believe that will be the case. The defense and confidence have crumbled, and they are no longer playing above their heads. As such, I don’t think they can top the surging Bolts; especially with Simms in at QB.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

N.Y. Jets (+10.5) @ New England (-10.5)
In regards to Belichick’s decision to go for it last week, I *loved* it, as I explained here: http://bit.ly/3lAZZR. Not everyone agrees with me though. If there is anything I’ve learned over the years when it comes to the Patriots and controversy, they usually respond with a very convincing win on the field. I expect this time around to be no different.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

Philadelphia (-3.0) @ Chicago (+3.0)
Maybe Chicago bounces back this week. But honestly, this team hasn’t really impressed me at all this season; and Jay Cutler’s disasterous results have only enforced that. Philly’s defense should continue making Cutler’s life difficult, and the offense (even without Westbrook) should be able to do enough to grab the road win.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

MONDAY

Tennessee (+4.5) @ Houston (-4.5)
Alright, I’m starting to believe. Does that mean you are going to go back to sucking this week, Tennessee? My model actually shows a Titans victory in this one, and that was my initial reaction as well. They seem to be rolling and have regained their confidence; if they can continue to play at the level they have on this winning streak, they should be able to extend it this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Tennessee

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 37 – 29 – 6 (.561)

COLLEGE FOOTBALL FANS: Check out the website I run with my best friend Sam,
http://www.allpac10.com!

Week 12 Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nYav1Qf5lz0
South Florida -11.5 (WIN)
Marshall -3.0 (TIE)
Nevada -30.0 (WIN)
Arizona State +5.0 (LOSS)
ASU/UCLA Under 41.5 (WIN)
Oregon/Arizona Over 60 (WIN)

Good Luck This Week!
———————
Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!