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By Dave Consolazio, November 27, 2009 10:00 am

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Happy Turkey Day everyone!

Hopefully most of you will be spending your Thanksgiving around friends and family, enjoying a nice home-cooked meal.

Me? Thanks to the kind folks at SBR who decided to fire me with no warning/reason, I’ll be spending Thanksgiving packing up my stuff for a drive halfway across the country this upcoming weekend. At least my Dad is out here to help.

So we’ll be going to a restaurant to eat Thanksgiving dinner. Once again, I can’t thank SBR enough!

Ok, ok, enough bitterness. I haven’t slept well at all this week, anxious about the impending move, so I am, admittedly, cranky.

But I am thankful to be headed home to my loving friends and family, and to get to work on new and exciting business ventures.

I’m also thankful that, despite not being around extended family, I still have the chance to publically humiliate myself thanks to the Dime. What would I do without it?

All kidding aside, I’m also thankful for all of you that take the time to read my stuff every week (or even once every now and then) and support me. It really means a lot to me, so thank you for that.

You’d better not be reading this without a drumstick or some other foodstuff in your hand! And if you are, why on earth aren’t you eating?! It’s Thanksgiving!

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 9 – 7 – 0 (.563)
Without the spread: 13 – 3 – 0 (.813)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 1 – 0 – 0 (1.000)

Season
With the spread: 81 – 78 – 1 (.509)
Without the spread: 109 – 51 – 0 (.681)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 10 – 5 – 0 (.667)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Miami (+3.5) @ Carolina (-3.5)
Seattle (+10.5) @ Minnesota (-10.5)
Atlanta (+7.0) @ N.Y. Giants (-7.0)
Buffalo (+9.0) @ Jacksonville (-9.0)
Cincinnati (-9.0) @ Oakland (+9.0)
San Diego (-4.0) @ Denver (+4.0)
N.Y. Jets (+10.5) @ New England (-10.5)
Philadelphia (-3.0) @ Chicago (+3.0)
Tennessee (+4.5) @ Houston (-4.5)

THE BAD

Indianapolis (-1.5) @ Baltimore (+1.5)
New Orleans (-11.0) @ Tampa Bay (+11.0)
Washington (+11.0) @ Dallas (-11.0)
Pittsburgh (-10.5) @ Kansas City (+10.5)
Cleveland (+3.0) @ Detroit (-3.0)
San Francisco (+6.5) @ Green Bay (-6.5)
Arizona (-9.0) @ St. Louis (+9.0)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

THURSDAY

Green Bay (-11.5) @ Detroit (+11.5)
The Packers are obviously the better team, but Detroit is going to be playing with a lot of confidence and a lot of excitement after the thrilling win over Cleveland. Confidence/excitement may not be enough to pick up the win, but I do think it could be enough to make for a decent Thanksgiving Day game.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

Oakland (+13.5) @ Dallas (-13.5)
Trust me, I’m not going to go all “Oakland is good now that they have Gradkowski leading them” on you. That said, should Dallas really be giving up two touchdowns here? They’ve shown very serious issues against press coverage (something the Raiders are capable of applying), scoring only 7 points in each of the last two weeks. This one has the looks of an ugly, low-scoring game to me, not a Dallas blowout.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

N.Y. Giants (-6.0) @ Denver (+6.0)
Denver is done. Whatever cloud they were playing on has dissipated, and after the smoke has cleared, they appear to be the mediocre team we all thought they were coming into the season. The Giants haven’t been anything special, but they have more than enough to win this one by a TD I believe.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: N.Y. Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: N.Y. Giants

SUNDAY

Seattle (-3.0) @ St. Louis (+3.0)
Can’t believe I’m doing this, but I’m taking St. Louis. Seattle’s defense is just so bad that even the Rams should be able to put up points (heavy load of Steven Jackson is likely), and they are just to inconsistant to have any faith in offensively. I may end up regretting it, but I’ll take my chances on the lowly Rams.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *St. Louis

Carolina (+3.0) @ N.Y. Jets (-3.0)
Complete honesty; I have no idea at all what to expect from this game. Two underacheiving teams with plenty of issues and inconsistant QB play. My model says 31-27 Carolina, so I’ll just run with that, and take the points while I’m at it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Carolina

Tampa Bay (+12.0) @ Atlanta (-12.0)
Tampa Bay’s defense is horrible, and Atlanta should come into this game plenty angry and plenty motivated. It has been a disappointing season in Atlanta, and this is not only a game they need, but a game I think they will enjoy after the frustrating OT loss to the Giants. I’m expecting a fairly one-sided affair.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

Miami (-3.5) @ Buffalo (+3.5)
Everything about this game screams Miami, they are clearly the better team and they just proved they could go out and win on the road against a similar looking team in Carolina. But for whatever reason, this just strikes me as “one of those games”. Buffalo always seems to be just a play or two away; maybe this week they make those plays.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Buffalo

Washington (+9.0) @ Philadelphia (-9.0)
Washington has proven, in my opinion, that they deserve a little more respect than this after the win over Denver (fallen from grace or not) and the near-shutout of Dallas. Philadelphia hasn’t exactly been dominant this season. I expect them to pick up the win, but I’ll take the points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

Cleveland (+14.0) @ Cincinnati (-14.0)
Much like Atlanta, I expect Cinci to be a team possessed this week after letting that Raider game slip away. Cleveland’s offense has been useless up until that last game; and it WAS Detroit. Expect things to return to normal for both teams this week, and this one to be a lot less interesting than the first meeting between these two teams earlier in the season.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati

Indianapolis (-3.5) @ Houston (+3.5)
Houston has lost their last two games 20-17, and Indy has been sneaking by teams by very slim margins. This one just feels like another 3 or 4 point victory for the Colts, meaning this spread was, in my opinion, set perfectly. I’ll go with the score landing on three and take the Texans.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

Jacksonville (+3.0) @ San Francisco (-3.0)
The Jaguars have actually, against my will, made believers out of me. Maurice Jones-Drew is always a force, and the team seems to be picking up some confidence. I like them to upset the 49ers here, who still seem to be just a small step behing where they need to be.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Jacksonville

Kansas City (+13.5) @ San Diego (-13.5)
Toss up here, but I can’t imagine Kansas City matching their effort from last week. San Diego is red-hot, and I’m too scared to pick against them at this point, even with all these points dangling in front of me.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

Chicago (+10.5) @ Minnesota (-10.5)
Yes, Chicago is bad. Yes, Minnesota is outstanding. I’m still not willing to give up 10.5 points in what is always a physical, smashmouth rivalry game. Chicago just kept it close against Philadelphia, and I’ll be looking for them to do the same against the Vikings.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Minnesota

Arizona (+3.0) @ Tennessee (-3.0)
The Titans, and more noticeably Vince Young, are back. Young has pumped the team full of energy, and they have responded extremely well on both sides of the ball. While it will likely end up being too little too late, I wouldn’t tell that to the Titans right now; and i wouldn’t go against them at home right now, either.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee

Pittsburgh (+2.5) @ Baltimore (-2.5)
Even if Big Ben plays as it appears he will be, I don’t expect him to be at 100%. Baltimore has been so close all season to getting over the hump, and this is their chance. I expect them to take it with Polamalu out and Big Ben nursing a concussion.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

MONDAY

New England (+2.0) @ New Orleans (-2.0)
Wow, what a great game this should be. Will be a lot of fun to see just how good the Saints are, and will also be fun to see how the Patriots’ defense responds to this opportunity to prove themselves. The Pats have been winning big games like this for almost a decade now; the Saints, not so much. I’ll take the Pats, but it does look like a good ol’ fashion coinflip.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *New England

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 37 – 29 – 6 (.561)

COLLEGE FOOTBALL FANS: Check out the website I run with my best friend Sam, http://www.allpac10.com!

Week 13 Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5FEK5tRgBQ

Rutgers -3.0
Central Florida -3.0
Nebraska/Colorado Over 38.0
Nevada/Boise State Over 70.0

Good Luck This Week!
———————
Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!

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By Dave Consolazio, November 20, 2009 10:00 am

Hey everyone! Sorry, I know this is way too close to game time to be useful to anyone, but still wanted to get it out for keeping an accurate records’ sake. Will try to get the rest of the Dime out a bit earlier this week!

Miami (+3.5) @ Carolina (-3.5)
I think Miami is a much better football team than they get credit for. They are splod on both sides of the ball, and while they aren’t on the level they were last year, they can still compete. Losing Ronnie Brown hurts quite a bit, but I think the team has enough to rally and prove that they can still win without him. Carolina is starting to pick up some momentum, but I think the Dolphins can pull off the upset tonight.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Miami

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

It’s a running joke among fans (and critics) of the show HOUSE how formulaic every episode is. Goes a little something like…

Opening scene, random people, one of them (usually not the one you’d expect) starts spazzing out – House takes the case, tells his team to run a bunch of tests while insulting them – patient gets worse (commercial break) – House and the gang treat the patient and he seems to be better but then gets much worse (another commercial) – House talks to his pal Wilson about something non-case related, and then it magically hits him what’s wrong with the patient.

Example: Wilson: “Are you hungry?” House: “No, you idiot, if I was hungry I would have stolen your cheeseburger (dramatic pause)”

Of course, it’s asperger’s syndrome, and House would have never realized it if he hadn’t have said burger.

Why am I blathering about House? Because I just realized that the Dime works the exact same way.

Dave goes .500 – Talks about how hard it is to break .500 – Dave goes on a winning streak – In a great mood, witty (to the best of his limited ability anyway), feels smart/knowledgeable about football – Dave goes on a losing streak – Hates football, cranky, wonders where it all went wrong, wonders why he sucks so much, realize he doesn’t know anything about football and can predict games about as well as he can predict weather – Season ends at right around .500.

Of course, what saves House is the excellent dramatic elements outside of the formulaic case, as well as his witty banter.

What saves the Dime?

Ummm… err…

At least my Philosophical Picks don’t suck, right?

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 6 – 9 – 0 (.400)
Without the spread: 11 – 4 – 0 (.733)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 1 – 0 – 0 (1.000)

Season
With the spread: 72 – 71 – 1 (.503)
Without the spread: 96 – 48 – 0 (.667)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 9 – 5 – 0 (.643)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Chicago (+3.5) @ San Francisco (-3.5)
Atlanta (-1.5) @ Carolina (+1.5)
Denver (-3.5) @ Washington (+3.5)
Detroit (+16.5) @ Minnesota (-16.5)
Philadelphia @ San Diego (Pick’em)
Baltimore (-10.5) @ Cleveland (+10.5)
THE BAD

Cincinnati (+7.0) @ Pittsburgh (-7.0)
Tampa Bay (+10.0) @ Miami (-10.0)
New Orleans (-13.5) @ St. Louis (+13.5)
Jacksonville (+6.5) @ N.Y. Jets (-6.5)
Buffalo (+8.5) @ Tennessee (-8.5)
Kansas City (+2.0) @ Oakland (-2.0)
Dallas (-3.0) @ Green Bay (+3.0)
Seattle (+9.0) @ Arizona (-9.0)
New England (+2.5) @ Indianapolis (-2.5)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

Not seeing the upsets this week… can only hope the favorites show up.

THURSDAY

Miami (+3.5) @ Carolina (-3.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Miami (WIN)

SUNDAY

Indianapolis (-1.5) @ Baltimore (+1.5)
All streaks must come to an end, and I think Indy’s does this week. Plenty of history and hard-fought battles between these two teams, and the Ravens have shown the ability to pressure Manning in the past. After a sluggish start, the Ravens seem to have found a bit of a grove (minus the slip-up in Cinci), and I just have the feeling they pull off the upset.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Baltimore

Seattle (+10.5) @ Minnesota (-10.5)
Well, Seattle bit me pretty hard last week, letting an early lead get away AND giving up enough to not get the cover, either. Considering what a powerhouse Minnesota is, I just can’t put my trust in the Seahawks, even if it is a whole-lotta points. Their defense just isn’t what it used to be.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Minnesota

New Orleans (-11.0) @ Tampa Bay (+11.0)
I’m actually laughing as I type this, because I KNOW that New Orleans is going to put it all together and blow out the Bucs now that I’m finally picking against them. That said, the Saints have fallen into this awful habit of letting everyone they play stick around, and Tampa Bay has been playing with a lot of confidence since the QB chance. I’ll take the 11 points, shaking my head the whole time.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

Atlanta (+7.0) @ N.Y. Giants (-7.0)
Similar resume for these two teams; they’ve both been underacheiving quite a bit. I was expecting Atlanta to be getting 3 or 4 points, but 7? The Giants have not done anything this season to warrant being a 7-point favorite over a good football team. At home, I think they come out on top, but only by a field goal or so.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: N.Y. Giants

Washington (+11.0) @ Dallas (-11.0)
Hard to pass on all these points in an NFC East rivalry game, but Dallas is the substantially better team. It is also a fairly perfect philosophy-like scenario that Washington is coming off of a big uplifting win and Dallas is coming off of a frustrating and embarassing loss. Books just seem to be begging you to take Washington in this spot. Alas, it isn’t a “true” philosophy pick, but it’s good enough for me.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

Pittsburgh (-10.5) @ Kansas City (+10.5)
It all comes down to whether or not Pittsburgh shows up. Considering they traveled to superior-AFC-west-opponent Denver’s house and beat them by 18, it is hard to make a case for the lowly Chiefs.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

Buffalo (+9.0) @ Jacksonville (-9.0)
The Jaguars have become “one of those teams” for me over the last few seasons. Buffalo looked to be in good shape last week against Tennessee, but then the wheels completely fell off. I don’t really get either of these teams. I figure it will play out a little something like Maurice Jones-Drew gets tons of carries and yards, the Jags score about 24, and Buffalo scores about 17-20; but again, what do I know? I feel more comfortable WITH the points in this one than giving them up.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Jacksonville

Cleveland (+3.0) @ Detroit (-3.0)
Wow. I’d flip a coin, but heads/tails wouldn’t quite do these two justice; I need an awful/dreadful coin to flip. My model says Cleveland 10 – Detroit 17. I won’t bother trying to analyze what will just come down to ugly bounces and mistakes anyway; I’ll just go with the computer.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Detroit

San Francisco (+6.5) @ Green Bay (-6.5)
Green Bay’s defense is something of a mystery; they either show up and completely dominate, or they get lit up to the tune of 30+ points. Considering they are facing a less-than-explosive offense this week, I’ll say they build on last week’s big win and pick up another one by a TD or more here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

Arizona (-9.0) @ St. Louis (+9.0)
Arizona flexed their offensive muscles last week against Seattle in coming back and covering the large spread, and while St. Louis’s effort against the Saints was admirable, it doesn’t change the fact that they are a very bad football team. I don’t expect as strong of an effort this week, and the Cardinals should roll.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona

Cincinnati (-9.0) @ Oakland (+9.0)
Well, I’m not thrilled about having to take pathetic Oakland, but they are a Philosophy Pick this week. Last week they were favored at home and were expected to win over KC; instead, they came up short. This week, they are still at home, and this time around they are a dog. As the theory goes, they should be hungry for redemption this week. A few other things I like about Oakland here; Cinci is coming off of two straight huge emotional wins over Baltimore and Pittsburgh, and it will be hard to get up for a game like this. Also, Jamarcus Russell is officially benched, Thank God. Gradkowski may be nothing special, but he won’t give away the game like Jamarcus does. Can’t take the outright upset, but I like the Raiders to make it a game.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati

San Diego (-4.0) @ Denver (+4.0)
That image of Josh McDaniels emphatically pumping his fist after defeating the Patriots seems to be a distant memory now, doesn’t it? Three straight losses later, and we are back in the familiar position of San Diego being able to take over control of the division with a win over the Broncos. I’d love to say that the Broncos have what it takes to dig deep and come up with a big win here… but I just don’t believe that will be the case. The defense and confidence have crumbled, and they are no longer playing above their heads. As such, I don’t think they can top the surging Bolts; especially with Simms in at QB.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

N.Y. Jets (+10.5) @ New England (-10.5)
In regards to Belichick’s decision to go for it last week, I *loved* it, as I explained here: http://bit.ly/3lAZZR. Not everyone agrees with me though. If there is anything I’ve learned over the years when it comes to the Patriots and controversy, they usually respond with a very convincing win on the field. I expect this time around to be no different.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

Philadelphia (-3.0) @ Chicago (+3.0)
Maybe Chicago bounces back this week. But honestly, this team hasn’t really impressed me at all this season; and Jay Cutler’s disasterous results have only enforced that. Philly’s defense should continue making Cutler’s life difficult, and the offense (even without Westbrook) should be able to do enough to grab the road win.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

MONDAY

Tennessee (+4.5) @ Houston (-4.5)
Alright, I’m starting to believe. Does that mean you are going to go back to sucking this week, Tennessee? My model actually shows a Titans victory in this one, and that was my initial reaction as well. They seem to be rolling and have regained their confidence; if they can continue to play at the level they have on this winning streak, they should be able to extend it this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Tennessee

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 37 – 29 – 6 (.561)

COLLEGE FOOTBALL FANS: Check out the website I run with my best friend Sam,
http://www.allpac10.com!

Week 12 Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nYav1Qf5lz0
South Florida -11.5 (WIN)
Marshall -3.0 (TIE)
Nevada -30.0 (WIN)
Arizona State +5.0 (LOSS)
ASU/UCLA Under 41.5 (WIN)
Oregon/Arizona Over 60 (WIN)

Good Luck This Week!
———————
Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!

Comments Off

By Dave Consolazio, November 13, 2009 10:00 am

Hey everyone! Just a quick prediction for tonight’s game, sorry it’s so close to game time, skipped my mind that I had to send this out Thursday!

Chicago (+3.5) @ San Francisco (-3.5)
These teams are actually quite evenly matched, making it tempting to take the points and the Bears here. But while it doesn’t qualify as a philosophy pick due to the fact that they are a favorite again this week, the emotional-factor logic dictates that coming off of a home loss as a favorite and playing again at home this week, a team will be especially motivated to redeem themselves in front of the home fans. I think they do so tonight and pick up the win by four or more.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco

Good Luck!

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Sometimes, it’s fun to have a newsletter that you get to send out every week to a bunch of people on a sport you think you know a little something about.

Other times, like the last few weeks, you wish you lived in some Amish Village in the middle of nowhere and had never heard of the internet.

As I watched late pick-6s and onside kicks go against me left and right last weekend, I was reminded that so much of this just comes down to the bounces. For that reason, I really shouldn’t let it frustrate me so much… but I still do. Losing sucks, and losing ALOT sucks worse.

Then again, I’ve never guaranteed any winners. Can’t. Unfortunately, I can’t actually go out there and strap on the pads and make any difference whatsoever.

All I can guarantee is that I’ll keep giving it a shot (and making a damn fool of myself) every week. That is, of course, until I find an Amish Village that is willing to accept me as one of their own.

Will I have to grow a beard?

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 3 – 10 – 0 (.231)
Without the spread: 8 – 5 – 0 (.615)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 0 – 0 – 0 (N/A)

Season
With the spread: 66 – 62 – 1 (.516)
Without the spread: 85 – 44 – 0 (.659)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 8 – 5 – 0 (.615)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

(From here on, just going with the good and the bad. Wins are good, losses are bad. Makes sense.)

THE GOOD

Arizona (+3.0) @ Chicago (-3.0)
Miami (+10.5) @ New England (-10.5)
Pittsburgh (-3.0) @ Denver (+3.0)

THE BAD

Green Bay (-9.5) @ Tampa Bay (+9.5)
Kansas City (+6.5) @ Jacksonville (-6.5)
Washington (+9.0) @ Atlanta (-9.0)
Baltimore (-3.0) @ Cincinnati (+3.0)
Houston (+8.5) @ Indianapolis (-8.5)
Carolina (+13.0) @ New Orleans (-13.0)
Detroit (+10.0) @ Seattle (-10.0)
San Diego (+4.5) @ N.Y. Giants (-4.5)
Tennessee (+4.0) @ San Francisco (-4.0)
Dallas (+3.0) @ Philadelphia (-3.0)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

THURSDAY

Chicago (+3.5) @ San Francisco (-3.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco (WIN)

SUNDAY

Cincinnati (+7.0) @ Pittsburgh (-7.0)
Cincinnati has a very good team this year, making all of these points tempting; but while these two teams match up pretty well on offense, Pittsburgh has the advantage in defense. They also have home field advantage and they let the last one against Cinci get away. When Pittsburgh wins, it always seems to be by double digits; even against strong teams like the Bengals.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

Atlanta (-1.5) @ Carolina (+1.5)
Carolina started the season off slowly, but they’ve picked up their play of late. They have the rushing attack to keep Matt Ryan off the field, and the passing defense to slow him down when he is out there. These two teams always play eachother tough, and I think it’s the Panthers’ turn to come out on top.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Carolina

Tampa Bay (+10.0) @ Miami (-10.0)
Congrats, Tampa Bay, you will not go winless this year. The effort to beat Green Bay was great, but it doesn’t change the fact that they are one of the worst teams in the NFL. Miami, a quietly solid team with arguably the most underrated offense in the league, should take care of business easily this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Miami

New Orleans (-13.5) @ St. Louis (+13.5)
Okay, so New Orleans falls behind big early, and then storms back late. I get it. It’s starting to annoy me, too, since it keeps allowing the opponent to cover. But does it annoy me enough to take the lowly Rams? Not a chance. Can we play all four quarters this week, guys?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

Jacksonville (+6.5) @ N.Y. Jets (-6.5)
This one has the look and feel of an ugly game. It is hard to ignore the Jags’ last few road games; 30-13 loss @Tennessee, 41-0 loss @Seattle. They haven’t exactly traveled well of late, and going up against a tough Jets defense, I don’t like their chances of bucking the trend.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: N.Y. Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: N.Y. Jets

Buffalo (+8.5) @ Tennessee (-8.5)
Eventually I’ll have to come around and accept that Tennessee is “back”, but I’m still not ready to. As bad as Buffalo is, their defense has been pretty strong. And Tennessee’s defense still leaves a bit to be desired. The Titans pick up the win, but I’m not expecting it to be by double digits.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee

Denver (-3.5) @ Washington (+3.5)
Everybody (83% spread, 85% moneyline) loves the Broncos to bounce back with a win against lowly Washington, and yet the spread moved from 4.5 to 3.5. Verrrry interesting. As if fading the public and the reverse line movement wasn’t enough, my model happens to be on the Redskins as well, predicting a score of 21-17. That certainly doesn’t hurt.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Washington

Detroit (+16.5) @ Minnesota (-16.5)
Detroit is really awful, and Minnesota is really good, but am I really ready to give up 16.5 points? Actually, yes, I believe that I am. Fresh off of a bye against a weak opponent, I have to take the Vikings here to tee off.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Minnesota

Kansas City (+2.0) @ Oakland (-2.0)
I can almost guarantee I’m going to regret this pick, and my model certainly thinks so (predicting a 28-14 KC victory), but the Raiders get back two huge offensive weapons in Darren McFadden and Chaz Shilens this week. Add that to the fact that they’ve already beaten the Chiefs this season and have shown some life on defense at home sporadically… and I have to take my pathetic Raiders.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Oakland

Dallas (-3.0) @ Green Bay (+3.0)
This game should be a lot of fun to watch. Dallas has surprised me this season with their strong play, and I think they match up very well here; Green Bay’s defense has been beatable, and the Cowboys should be able to get pressure on Aaron Rodgers as the Packers’ o-line has also been a problem for them. Should be a good game, but I like the Cowboys to come out on top.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

Philadelphia @ San Diego (Pick’em)
I like San Diego quite a bit in this spot. They are starting to pick up momentum (as they often do late in the season), and Philadelphia is coming off of three straight division rivalry games AND is traveling across the country. This looks like a very good spot for the San Diego Chargers at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

Seattle (+9.0) @ Arizona (-9.0)
I can never quite wrap my head around Seattle, as they always find a way to make me wrong whether I pick for or against them. In this division rivalry, I’m once again tempted into take the points on the Seahawks, and can only hope their offense shows up this time against Arizona.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona

New England (+2.5) @ Indianapolis (-2.5)
What an excellent game for Sunday Night Football. Should be a lot of fun to kick back and watch. As for who is going to win? My model likes New England, but I like the Colts at home; this game will be a big test for both of these teams and could obviously be a preview of a playoff game down the road. Home field + Peyton Manning in a night game at less then a FG, I have to take my chances.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

MONDAY

Baltimore (-10.5) @ Cleveland (+10.5)
Cleveland tends to show up for games like this when you least expect them to, but they match up terribly against the Ravens, and Baltimore needs some wins badly and should be completely focused this Monday night. As such, I’ll have to assume they give their best effort, which should be enough to cover this spread.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 33 – 28 – 5 (.541)

COLLEGE FOOTBALL FANS: Check out the website I run with my best friend Sam,
http://www.allpac10.com! Content updated daily.
Week 11 Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fedtZ6QZsM4

UAB -1.5 (WIN)
Idaho +31.5 (LOSS)
Oregon State -13.0 (WIN)
South Carolina +17.5 (WIN)
Utah +20.0 (LOSS)
Arizona +3.0 (LOSS)Good Luck This Week!

———————
Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!

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By Dave Consolazio, November 6, 2009 10:00 am

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Well, you knew it was bound to happen.

I had to have an awful week sooner or later… you weren’t expecting me to pick 60% winners picking every game ATS, were you?

Alas, losing sucks, but it’s all part of the game. Hopefully the bounces treat me a lot better this time around.

(Sorry, keeping the intro short and sweet today… I’m too tired to be creative. Sorry these are so late again as well!)

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 4 – 9 – 0 (.308)
Without the spread: 9 – 4 – 0 (.692)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 1 – 0 – 0 (1.000)

Season
With the spread: 63 – 52 – 1 (.548)
Without the spread: 77 – 39 – 0 (.664)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 8 – 5 – 0 (.615)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Houston (-3.0) @ Buffalo (+3.0)
Miami (+3.5) @ N.Y. Jets (-3.5)
N.Y. Giants (-1.0) @ Philadelphia (+1.0)
Carolina (+10.0) @ Arizona (-10.0)

THE BAD

Denver (+3.5) @ Baltimore (-3.5)
Cleveland (+13.0) @ Chicago (-13.0)
St. Louis (+4.0) @ Detroit (-4.0)
San Francisco (+13.0) @ Indianapolis (-13.0)
Seattle (+9.5) @ Dallas (-9.5)
Oakland (+16.5) @ San Diego (-16.5)

THE COULD HAVE GONE EITHER WAY/NOT MY WAY THIS WEEK:

Minnesota (+3.0) @ Green Bay (-3.0)
Atlanta (+10.5) @ New Orleans (-10.5)

THE “WHAT THE $%^@”?:

Jacksonville (+3.0) @ Tennessee (-3.0)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

SUNDAY

Green Bay (-9.5) @ Tampa Bay (+9.5)
Green Bay has had no issues beating lousy teams by double digits recently (doing so against both Cleveland and Detroit), and I expect Tampa Bay to suffer a similar fate.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

Arizona (+3.0) @ Chicago (-3.0)
I believe that Arizona is the better football team in this one, and I don’t think that being on the wrong side of a revenge game last Sunday changes that. I’ll gladly take the points, even if it is on the road.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Arizona

Kansas City (+6.5) @ Jacksonville (-6.5)
Honestly, I really don’t think the Jaguars have any business being a near-touchdown favorite to anyone after their performance last week. But losing in embarassing fashion to a winless team seems like pretty good motivation to bounce back strong at home the following week, which I expect them to do.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Jacksonville

Miami (+10.5) @ New England (-10.5)
For whatever reason, people seem to keep ignoring the fact that this Dolphins offense is very strong. New England should get the win (no repeat of last year’s trip to New England), but I expect Miami to put up a fight.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

Washington (+9.0) @ Atlanta (-9.0)
Washington has a very bad football team, but it is mainly due to their offense. I think their defense makes it hard to give up so many points; and coming off of a bye week they should be fresh. I like them to keep it within a touchdown this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

Baltimore (-3.0) @ Cincinnati (+3.0)
My head tells me it’s hard to turn down points on a home dog that is not only evenly matched but coming off of a bye and beat this team on the road a few weeks back. My gut tells me Baltimore is the play though, perhaps to get revenge for that very loss at home. I tend to go with my gut in these situations.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

Houston (+8.5) @ Indianapolis (-8.5)
Spread tells the story here. Houston has won three straight, Indy coming off of a close win over San Francisco. Books are begging you to take the Texans at this number; but I’ll stick with the Colts.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

Carolina (+13.0) @ New Orleans (-13.0)
Carolina got their revenge out of the way this week, but this is still a football team with a lot of problems. Expect those problems on both sides of the ball to be exploited by this powerhouse Saints team.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

Detroit (+10.0) @ Seattle (-10.0)
Yes, the loss to St. Louis at home was extremely embarassing. That said, what has Seattle done this year? Other than the one huge game against Jacksonville, they’ve been pushed around pretty much all season too; I can’t lay 10 points with this team.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle

San Diego (+4.5) @ N.Y. Giants (-4.5)
San Diego doesn’t tend to travel to the East Coast well, and this week they get a very angry Giants team in the midst of a losing streak. I don’t like their chances.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: N.Y. Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: N.Y. Giants

Tennessee (+4.0) @ San Francisco (-4.0)
Great to see the Titans get back in the win column last week, but I don’t think one great game solves all of your problems. San Francisco should take care of business at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco

Dallas (+3.0) @ Philadelphia (-3.0)
This should be a great game. Both teams look very evenly matched this season, but I have to take the Eagles at home, and I like their defense slightly better as well.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

MONDAY

Pittsburgh (-3.0) @ Denver (+3.0)
Maybe Pittsburgh is a trap, but in this case, I need to spring it. I’m not even on the “Denver isn’t for real” wagon, I just don’t see Big Ben and the Steelers dropping this game on a Monday Night.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 30 – 25 – 5 (.545)

COLLEGE FOOTBALL FANS: Check out the website I run with my best friend Sam,
http://www.allpac10.com! Content updated daily.
Week 10 Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A58mnWQqcXg

Kansas -2.5 (LOSS)
Oregon State +7.0 (WIN)
Oregon -7.0 (LOSS)
UL Monroe -1.0 (WIN)
Houston -1.0 (TIE)

Good Luck This Week!
———————
Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!